No deal Brexit impact

[Ferdinand]

7 minutes ago, Temp said:

Oh bother, I was there a few months ago and never knew.

 

https://www.derbyshirelife.co.uk/food-drink/carr-head-farm-1-5715661

[SteamyTea]

1 hour ago, Nickfromwales said:

Yes. I do.

You going to share it then.  We like data on here.

[Nickfromwales]

1 minute ago, SteamyTea said:

You going to share it then.  We like data on here.

........you'll just have to take my word for it  . 

[SteamyTea]

Sounds like this is heading for prorogation.

[LA3222]

I have a lot more pressing issues than Brexit to waste my time thinking on but I do find it hard to see why having a Brexit thread is such an issue?

 

I'm not a MOD so there may be a bigger picture I am missing but there are lots of (subjectively) 'pointless' threads  buried in this forum....why the (percieved by myself) rush to close Brexit related threads? ?‍♂️

[newhome]

9 hours ago, LA3222 said:

I'm not a MOD so there may be a bigger picture I am missing but there are lots of (subjectively) 'pointless' threads  buried in this forum....why the (percieved by myself) rush to close Brexit related threads?

 

I’m not a mod either but it’s because the previous one turned into a pissing contest of opposing views, and shitloads of reported posts citing racist comments et al, which kept the mods continually busy trying to keep on top of before someone launched a counter attack, and this is a self build forum, not the Daily Mail comments section. 

 

Other ‘pointless’ threads as you put it tend to be easy going and report / mod free. None of the mods signed up to moderate political clashes, they are here to oversee self build posts and keep this forum free to use and spam free. 

[joth]

There's a little flag in the corner of every post, it's called the "create lots of work for admins" button. People start pressing it more in politics (or religion) heavy threads. I started using online forums (back then, email lists) in 1995 and this has always been the way, nothing special about brexit in this. 

 

I think this specific discussion is both useful and relatively uncontentious if people concentrate on the immediate  impact of no deal brexit to building supplies and trades (even if it is speculative discussion). As soon as it meanders onto the long term impact it invariably gets entangled in the wider politics of decisions and outcomes, and then the admins will get more work and the usefulness of the discussion decreases (in the context of a selfbuild forum)

 

(Sorry cross posted with newhome, but I think we're saying the same thing ?

Edited August 31, 2019 by joth

[newhome]

2 minutes ago, joth said:

Sorry cross posted with newhome, but I think we're saying the same thing

 

Yep, we are! 

[Nickfromwales]

10 hours ago, SteamyTea said:

Sounds like this is heading for prorogation.

This is the kind of hint people do or don’t get. 

 

10 minutes ago, newhome said:

 

I’m not a mod either but it’s because the previous one turned into a pissing contest of opposing views, and shitloads of reported posts citing racist comments et al, which kept the mods continually busy trying to keep on top of before someone launched a counter attack, and this is a self build forum, not the Daily Mail comments section. 

 

Other ‘pointless’ threads as you put it tend to be easy going and report / mod free. None of the mods signed up to moderate political clashes, they are here to oversee self build posts and keep this forum free to use and spam free. 

Thank you. 

 

Nick, the data is the HUGE amount of effort that went into the last poxy Brexit thread, and that data has now received more input by this one needing the same effort. 

10 hours ago, LA3222 said:

I have a lot more pressing issues than Brexit to waste my time thinking on but I do find it hard to see why having a Brexit thread is such an issue?

 

I'm not a MOD so there may be a bigger picture I am missing but there are lots of (subjectively) 'pointless' threads  buried in this forum....why the (percieved by myself) rush to close Brexit related threads? ?‍♂️

Read my last. 

Trolls and other persistent arseholes ‘rock the boat’ and we simply prefer plain sailing on calm waters. 

 

This is a volunteer operated forum, run for the benefit of its members, seed funded by the FMG and it’s also continuously maintained by the FMG in ‘our’ spare time. Any dents in the availability we have to give to the forum are frustrating and time-consuming, and these replies are such dents.

 

Any more ridicule will be unwelcome, and the posts that bring such content will be deleted without further notice or explanation. 

 

For the benefit of our members, ongoing decisions are not made by any one individual. Behind the scenes we discuss such things at length and move only when we have arrived at an unanimous decision, as per our constitution.

We act according to our own guidelines so as to ensure all ‘reviewed items’ are dealt with fairly. 

 

Thanks in advance for your cooperation. 

Mods. 

[Brickie]

I wonder if,on a politics forum,it ever kicks off big time with a contentious diy thread?

[Pocster]

8 minutes ago, Brickie said:

I wonder if,on a politics forum,it ever kicks off big time with a contentious diy thread?

I bet it does ! You can imagine ....

 

a “ fecking Boris never uses dewalt “

b “ He does - always because it’s yellow and black “

a “ Not EU colours so he wouldn’t touch it “

b “ Anyway you still got that leaky Tory walk on glazing ? “

Edited September 2, 2019 by pocster

[SteamyTea]

1 minute ago, pocster said:

Anyway you still got that leaky Tory walk on glazing ?

That will be the glass ceiling then, well until it is shattered.

[scottishjohn]

On 30/08/2019 at 19:35, pocster said:

French wine will cost more ! Bugger ! ? 

have not bought french wine  for years since the big lamb debarcle -stopping our farmers getting lamb to market in france

plenty of good wine from other countries

[Bitpipe]

1 minute ago, scottishjohn said:

have not bought french wine  for years since the big lamb debarcle -stopping our farmers getting lamb to market in france

plenty of good wine from other countries

 

Not a wine snob / expert at all but have never understood the fuss on French wine - all down to personal taste obviously -  but I prefer an Italian montepluciano or South African pinotage.

Find the north / south american reds a bit over powering.

 

That said I never spend more than £10 on a bottle (in a shop) so maybe that's why

[scottishjohn]

1 minute ago, Bitpipe said:

 

Not a wine snob / expert at all but have never understood the fuss on French wine - all down to personal taste obviously -  but I prefer an Italian montepluciano or South African pinotage.

Find the north / south american reds a bit over powering.

 

That said I never spend more than £10 on a bottle (in a shop) so maybe that's why

my choice is a matter of principle -

[ProDave]

This thread is hanging on by the skin of it's teeth.  PLEASE keep it on topic re self building or it WILL be gone.

[Bitpipe]

16 minutes ago, ProDave said:

This thread is hanging on by the skin of it's teeth.  PLEASE keep it on topic re self building or it WILL be gone.

 

I drank a LOT of wine when building the house...:)

[puntloos]

1 hour ago, ProDave said:

This thread is hanging on by the skin of it's teeth.  PLEASE keep it on topic re self building or it WILL be gone.

Why gone? There's useful info in here. Surely you can lock it if you feel the need?

 

Anyway, on Brexit impact. My main worry indeed is labour primarily, supplies only second.

 

On Labour, my suspicion is that 'for now' there is no meaningful actual change going to happen at Brexoween, these things happen gradually rather than slamming the gates shut. Sure, you could, but the repercussions would be too severe to be worth it. UK government incompetence being such as it is, there might be a few months worth of hiccup, and I suspect the default response to this will be 'everything open' rather than trying to quickly implement a more protectionist approach. (because a functioning approach requires a level of subtlety that you can't rush while implementing)

 

On materials, well I've been listening to the discussion here with interest. I suspect you would do well to aim for UK sourced stuff but again, if anything the UK seems to be opening its gates rather than blocking stuff out just to keep up a modicum of competitiveness internationally. Terrible for the goverment coffers but if anything, for building this might be helpful. Fewer funds for running government services like building inspectors, planning reviews

 

As for specialized stuff like a toto toilet (japanese), sure, I think they will be harder (a.k.a costlier) to source but I imagine that larger brands like 'Miele' (even though they are.. german I believe?) will not really be impacted much if they have local presence

 

No idea how the pound value holds up, but perhaps it is a good idea to actually keep your funds outside of the UK (in USD?) and pay directly in that currency to foreign suppliers? Has anyone tried this?

Edited September 3, 2019 by puntloos

[joth]

6 hours ago, puntloos said:

I suspect you would do well to aim for UK sourced stuff

Yep, If I was starting again now, I might think more about using a traditional block and brick construction, as agree with others that timber import is probably something at higher risk of disruption. (Given we're doing a renovation of a brick house, keeping with existing would have had some technical benefits too)

 

6 hours ago, puntloos said:

keep your funds outside of the UK (in USD?) and pay directly in that currency to foreign suppliers?

 comment: you don't need to keep funds outside the UK to hold them in USD. And if you're not already holding USD, based on historical data now would be a bad time to buy them.

 

Paying foreign supplier directly would probably make you the importer, and all the headaches that go with it? I know people do that to save money on exotic cars, but even in times of stability all the paperwork involved would put me right off it. 

 

I think building a house is challenging enough without a side line in FX trading, currency hedging or import/export global logistics ?

(Looking at it another way might be: If you're experienced in and good at and enjoy this stuff you'll probably do it anyway regardless of brexit, and if you're not you probably stand to make more losses over it at a time of instability than the big boys that do this for living.)

 

[SteamyTea]

2 hours ago, joth said:

a side line in FX trading, currency hedging or import/export global logistics

I mentioned that once and got my comment deleted.

 

If one material line becomes too expensive, then another will take its place, it is what substitution is all about.

The other thing is that buyers work to a price point i.e. they are unwilling to spend more than x.

So that may mean there are more refurbishments and smaller projects as there is more elasticity in the price.

[epsilonGreedy]

11 hours ago, puntloos said:

Anyway, on Brexit impact. My main worry indeed is labour primarily, supplies only second.

 

On Labour, my suspicion is that 'for now' there is no meaningful actual change going to happen at Brexoween, these things happen gradually rather than slamming the gates shut. Sure, you could, but the repercussions would be too severe to be worth it. UK government incompetence being such as it is, there might be a few months worth of hiccup, and I suspect the default response to this will be 'everything open' rather than trying to quickly implement a more protectionist approach.

 

 

I reckon the complete opposite on all points.

 

Any economic disruption arising from a no deal Brexit will result in less demand for labour thus self builders should find more building trades looking for work. Couple this with yesterday's report of the sharpest contraction in building activity for 10 years and the outlook for self builders looking for building trade expertise is likely to improve.

 

Looking at the imported building materials situation should a no deal Brexit happen, then the most likely outcome is severe short term disruption due to administrative confusion, followed by a slow 1 year recovery to a new norm that will be 20% more expensive due to border trade tariffs and a weakening sterling.

[Pocster]

Should be able to close this thread soon ! ?

[SteamyTea]

10 minutes ago, pocster said:

Should be able to close this thread soon

31^st Jan 202?

And all this is just to say, 'here is, or isn't, a cheque, now how shall we proceed to the trade and social aspect'.

This is going to last longer than the Neverending Story, 1979 to 2016.

[puntloos]

1 hour ago, epsilonGreedy said:

 

I reckon the complete opposite on all points.

 

Seems to me our points are not mutually exclusive? I talk mostly on getting people in and out, and you are focusing more on the contraction of building activity due to (presumably?) other factors...

 

1 hour ago, epsilonGreedy said:

Any economic disruption arising from a no deal Brexit will result in less demand for labour thus self builders should find more building trades looking for work. Couple this with yesterday's report of the sharpest contraction in building activity for 10 years and the outlook for self builders looking for building trade expertise is likely to improve.

 

Do you have a link?

 

If this is true, what would be the best moment for us to get builders' quotes? 

 

1 hour ago, epsilonGreedy said:

Looking at the imported building materials situation should a no deal Brexit happen, then the most likely outcome is severe short term disruption due to administrative confusion, followed by a slow 1 year recovery to a new norm that will be 20% more expensive due to border trade tariffs and a weakening sterling.

 

Doesn't sound unreeasonable to me. No idea about that 20%.. where did you pick that number? (why not 10 or 30?)

[puntloos]

6 hours ago, joth said:

Yep, If I was starting again now, I might think more about using a traditional block and brick construction, as agree with others that timber import is probably something at higher risk of disruption. (Given we're doing a renovation of a brick house, keeping with existing would have had some technical benefits too)

 

Or alternatively, timber businesses would be easier to get a good price off right now, exactly because of this worry. Yes they might be a bit less dependible but if you give them extra time to rally they could just prove to do well? FWIW I only care about the frame, I have no intention of using timber anywhere else,

 

6 hours ago, joth said:

 

 comment: you don't need to keep funds outside the UK to hold them in USD. And if you're not already holding USD, based on historical data now would be a bad time to buy them.

 

Buying them with GBP you mean? Yeah that's not an ideal transaction at this point, although you could 'bet' that things will go south even more, still?

Or am I misunderstanding your historical data point?

 

6 hours ago, joth said:

Paying foreign supplier directly would probably make you the importer, and all the headaches that go with it? I know people do that to save money on exotic cars, but even in times of stability all the paperwork involved would put me right off it. 

Ah but you forget, with Brexit there will be no paper work! It's all "uh, we have no clue, just go about your business", no?

Slightly more seriously, I suppose you're right, and I don't think I want to be handling importing tiles myself. That said, I've imported smallish "toys" frequently enough, most things I will leave to the pros but ee.g. that "toto" toilet might be something I could manually do.

 

Also, this is actually a gap in my knowledge but how does the financial transfer process go here - we just give the builder all the $$$ (or £££) we have, and they will go off and buy stuff, in the UK.

 

But what if the purchase has to be done in the EU anyway? If I want rare hungarian featherstraw for my roof, will my builder only accept this insanity if they can find a local sourcing company, or would they (at least today, pre-brexit) be happy to do the importing?

 

Or will for example a QS-type guy do the sourcing directly with our money (if we give them access to our account..)? 

 

 

6 hours ago, joth said:

 

I think building a house is challenging enough without a side line in FX trading, currency hedging or import/export global logistics ?

 

Fair

 

6 hours ago, joth said:

 

(Looking at it another way might be: If you're experienced in and good at and enjoy this stuff you'll probably do it anyway regardless of brexit, and if you're not you probably stand to make more losses over it at a time of instability than the big boys that do this for living.)

 

Alsofair.