No deal Brexit impact

[Bitpipe]

Also need to factor the EU based labour.

 

We had Irish crew working on the frame, and Romanian crews on the steel/concrete for basement and the render. All very high quality trades people, and not supplied at any cost advantage to me - speaking to the contractors, the issue was skills, availability & work ethic - not cost. 

 

I guess as the £ weakens and freedom of movement ends (plus a potential feeling of being less welcome) they're less likely to want to work in UK, especially if there is a decline in construction sector overall.

[scottishjohn]

everything that has been said just highlights "project fear" which has been pushed by ALL the media  

have some faith  it will be alright in the end

[SteamyTea]

3 minutes ago, scottishjohn said:

everything that has been said just highlights "project fear" which has been pushed by ALL the media  

have some faith  it will be alright in the end

Okay, taking that at face value, can you point me to where it says that the opposite is going to happen to the price of building?

I expect some reports from respected, or at least well known, agencies, not the rantings and spoutings of politicians or political pundits.

 

[Jeremy Harris]

58 minutes ago, Bitpipe said:

Also need to factor the EU based labour.

 

We had Irish crew working on the frame, and Romanian crews on the steel/concrete for basement and the render. All very high quality trades people, and not supplied at any cost advantage to me - speaking to the contractors, the issue was skills, availability & work ethic - not cost. 

 

I guess as the £ weakens and freedom of movement ends (plus a potential feeling of being less welcome) they're less likely to want to work in UK, especially if there is a decline in construction sector overall.

 

I'd guess the impact on labour might be greater than any of the materials impacts, TBH. 

 

The labour market in the building sector was pretty massively impacted by economic migrants from within the EU, something that I saw first hand when working in Southern Poland around 15 years ago.  Ryanair were flying twice daily flights to Rzeszów, with the flight from the UK being nearly empty and the flight from Rzeszów being full, usually with young men carrying levels etc.  The translator that the company I was working with employed was a school teacher, who was about to leave himself to work for a building company near Hull.  He was going to be earning about double his salary as a teacher labouring on building sites in the North of England.  I've no doubt that that wave of economic migrants put a fair few British workers out of a job, as they tended to work harder for less money. 

 

Materials will likely sort themselves out, as there are almost certainly multiple suppliers from outside the EU, as well as those inside it, all competing to win our business.  If barriers are created that negatively impact imports to the UK from the EU, then my guess is that some other companies from outside the EU will try to exploit the changed situation to their advantage.  There may well be a fair bit of short term disruption, as new supply chains sort themselves out, but I doubt that this will last more than a few months.  Things have a way of getting sorted if there's enough money at stake.
 

[jack]

8 minutes ago, scottishjohn said:

everything that has been said just highlights "project fear" which has been pushed by ALL the media  

have some faith  it will be alright in the end

 

Final warning: the topic is the impact of Brexit on self-builders. Further off-topic opinions will be deleted without further explanation.

[SteamyTea]

4 minutes ago, JSHarris said:

Materials will likely sort themselves out, as there are almost certainly multiple suppliers from outside the EU

Generally, the value of out currency, is impacted by the value of the USA and the EU currency.  So we still have the currency issue to deal with.

Importing from non EU countries may sound like it is going to be easy, but it does depend on what other arrangements they have with trading partners.

So none of it is as clear cut as we like to think.

Edited August 29, 2019 by SteamyTea

[scottishjohn]

5 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

Okay, taking that at face value, can you point me to where it says that the opposite is going to happen to the price of building?

I expect some reports from respected, or at least well known, agencies, not the rantings and spoutings of politicians or political pundits.

 

why would there be such a report --no one could make such a report as we just do not have proper data --cos its not happened yet 

not that that stops the project fear media from hyping everything 

[SteamyTea]

1 minute ago, scottishjohn said:

why would there be such a report

So purely speculation, on the future price of building materials?

[scottishjohn]

Just now, SteamyTea said:

So purely speculation, on the future price of building materials?

on both sides --yes

so have faith 

[SteamyTea]

3 minutes ago, scottishjohn said:

on both sides --yes

Generally, when looking at economic changes, it is usual to look for similar situations that have happened in the past, and then extrapolate from that.

I am sure someone in the ONS and the Treasury is looking into the economic situation of building.  This may be part of the reason that they are going to review HS2 again.

Even though these statistical methods are not perfect, as mathematicians say about statistics, 'they are wrong for the right reasons'.

Edited August 29, 2019 by SteamyTea

[ToughButterCup]

Practical example - happened a few minutes ago: talking to Alex one of their their senior guys : price of Siberian Larch. (Pro Wood Wigan)

 

Pro Wood is most exposed to the value of the pound internationally.  He cant see the value of the pound being stable in the near future.

Order going in a little later today when I've had a more precise measure up ....

[scottishjohn]

6 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

Generally, when looking at economic changes, it is usual to look for similar situations that have happened in the past, and then extrapolate from that.

I am sure someone in the ONS and the Treasury is looking into the economic situation of building.  This may be part of the reason that they are going to review HS2 again.

Even though these statistical methods are not perfect, as mathematicians say about statistics, 'they are wrong for the right reasons'.

good idea lets look at history --find me any major buidling project from and including the pyramids  and onwards that did not far exceed all the esitmates  given before starting 

bottom line is if the real costs were put down the projects would never start -- i hope they do dump HS2 

lot of other things they could spend it on 

brunnels tunnels +ships .channel tunnel .scotttish parliament building 40m -cost 400 m

 

any extrapolation on previous costings is just another word for a guess !! 

 

Edited August 29, 2019 by scottishjohn

[Jeremy Harris]

I've no doubt that there will be an impact on exchange rates, but then there are many other things that equally impact on exchange rates, that have sod all to do with whether the UK is in the EU or not.  Some of these are things we have no control over at all, either.  As an example, a year or so before the UK joined the EEC in 1973, the exchange rate between the pound and the US dollar was around $2.50 = $1.00.  This dropped continuously,  and fairly rapidly, after 1973, and by 1976 it was down to about $1.65 = £1.00.  Today, more than 40 years later, the exchange rate is a bit lower, $1.22 = £1.00, but that's a bit over a 25% change in over 40 years, whereas the change between 1973 and 1976 was about 35% over 3 years (I'm not implying that the UK joining the EEC was the cause of this, BTW, just observing that this happened to be the period when there was the biggest drop in the value of the pound that we've seen in the past 50 years).

 

The media are making much fuss about the GBP/USD exchange rate dropping down to $1.22 = £1.00 in the past 24 hours (although it bounced back up within hours, and has since dipped a bit again), but back in 1985 the exchange rate dipped down to $1.12 = £1.00 and the world didn't come to an end.

 

In terms of impact on the real cost of building, I'm inclined to think that the volume builders may be impacted a fair bit more than the smaller building firms that self-builders are likely to use.  The loss of relatively cheap labour from Eastern Europe has as much to do with the change in the economies of countries like Poland as it does with Brexit.  Last time I was in Poland there were some pretty big building programmes underway, including major road building works, and pretty strong efforts were being made to attract migrant building workers back home.  As the economies of Eastern European states continues to grow then it's inevitable that there will be less economic migration.   Brexit might accelerate this a bit, but I'm pretty convinced it would happen anyway.

 

 

 

 

[Ferdinand]

The CTA Gives Irish workers th3 right to work in UK and vice versa.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/08/british-irish-deal-guarantee-rights-citizens-after-brexit

[Jeremy Harris]

Just now, Ferdinand said:

The CTA Gives Irish workers th3 right to work in UK and vice versa.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/08/british-irish-deal-guarantee-rights-citizens-after-brexit

 

 

Yes, that's existed since before the UK or Ireland joined the EEC.  Even after the UK has left the EU we'll still have that reciprocal right to freely travel between the UK and Ireland without needing a passport, just as citizens of Ireland will retain their existing rights to work and vote in the UK.

[gc100]

Prices always vary through Brexit or no Brexit all for the reasons mention already, from currency movements to global markets, talking to a wood supplier a year or so ago the price of timber had increased in the previous 12 months due to the amount of storm damage that had been happening in the US. 

 

My main concern is not actually the price as thats generally always out of my control, but more the supply chain and the project constantly stalling due to lack of materials. My build is a timber build so this is a particular concern for me.

[ToughButterCup]

9 minutes ago, gc100 said:

[...]stalling due to lack of materials. My build is a timber build so this is a particular concern for me.

 

Mark at Pro Wood said exactly that : sometimes supplies of a type of wood 'dry up' for a wide range of reasons.

[Bitpipe]

50 minutes ago, JSHarris said:

I've no doubt that there will be an impact on exchange rates, but then there are many other things that equally impact on exchange rates, that have sod all to do with whether the UK is in the EU or not.  Some of these are things we have no control over at all, either.  As an example, a year or so before the UK joined the EEC in 1973, the exchange rate between the pound and the US dollar was around $2.50 = $1.00.  This dropped continuously,  and fairly rapidly, after 1973, and by 1976 it was down to about $1.65 = £1.00.  Today, more than 40 years later, the exchange rate is a bit lower, $1.22 = £1.00, but that's a bit over a 25% change in over 40 years, whereas the change between 1973 and 1976 was about 35% over 3 years (I'm not implying that the UK joining the EEC was the cause of this, BTW, just observing that this happened to be the period when there was the biggest drop in the value of the pound that we've seen in the past 50 years).

 

The media are making much fuss about the GBP/USD exchange rate dropping down to $1.22 = £1.00 in the past 24 hours (although it bounced back up within hours, and has since dipped a bit again), but back in 1985 the exchange rate dipped down to $1.12 = £1.00 and the world didn't come to an end.

 

In terms of impact on the real cost of building, I'm inclined to think that the volume builders may be impacted a fair bit more than the smaller building firms that self-builders are likely to use.  The loss of relatively cheap labour from Eastern Europe has as much to do with the change in the economies of countries like Poland as it does with Brexit.  Last time I was in Poland there were some pretty big building programmes underway, including major road building works, and pretty strong efforts were being made to attract migrant building workers back home.  As the economies of Eastern European states continues to grow then it's inevitable that there will be less economic migration.   Brexit might accelerate this a bit, but I'm pretty convinced it would happen anyway.

 

 

 

 

 

Agree that the ultimate exchange rate per se is not the core issue (within reason) - a slow drift in either direction can be accommodated over time for the steep swings can act as economic shocks  - ditto oil & commodity prices - and make economic planning for both govts, businesses and individuals more difficult. 

 

Can you imagine the impact to us MBC clients paying in Euros back on 2014/15 if the pound had dropped 15% against the euro overnight (or the impact to MBC if it had gone the opposite direction)?  

[Nickfromwales]

This appears, in comparison to our normal traffic, to be a thread of very little value. ?.

If anyone wishes to take reference from any posts, maybe now would be a good time to get some screenshots .

[SteamyTea]

Have you got some data to back that statement up?

[Brickie]

Before this thread goes the way of the previous one,I’m going to make one prediction & leave it at that. 

 

 

 

Spurs will be out of Europe before the UK is ;))

Edited August 30, 2019 by Brickie
Writing ‘Spurs’ gives me a rash.

[Pocster]

French wine will cost more ! Bugger ! ? 

[Ferdinand]

28 minutes ago, pocster said:

French wine will cost more ! Bugger ! ? 

 

Drink less, winebibber, and stop dreaming of Jilly Goolden.

 

Found out today that there is a vineyard in Hathersage at 900ft. Not sure what is happening; they already have Little John and a gorgeous lido.

 

F

[Temp]

Oh bother, I was there a few months ago and never knew.

[Nickfromwales]

12 hours ago, SteamyTea said:

Have you got some data to back that statement up?

Yes. I do.