CotswoldDoItUpper Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Temp said: +1 It's not clear how it scales to people above and below average due to standing charges and the like. It should be like basic GCSE maths: SHOW YOUR WORKING! does anyone know what numbers they use for the calculation? As in an annual consumption of X kWh? I can then roughly work out other stuff. thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SimonD Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 1 hour ago, CotswoldDoItUpper said: It should be like basic GCSE maths: SHOW YOUR WORKING! does anyone know what numbers they use for the calculation? As in an annual consumption of X kWh? I can then roughly work out other stuff. thanks. The problem is that there are no transparent figures and the /kWh prices vary by region. OFGEM doesn't even provide these figures referring people to their regional supplier. Everyone quoting their figures on here only applies to their region so it's not like comparing like for like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joe90 Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 7 hours ago, Carrerahill said: AVA1? Yes 7 hours ago, SteamyTea said: Is it liquid cooled? No, so no CHP 🙄 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ferdinand Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 1 hour ago, SimonD said: The problem is that there are no transparent figures and the /kWh prices vary by region. OFGEM doesn't even provide these figures referring people to their regional supplier. Everyone quoting their figures on here only applies to their region so it's not like comparing like for like. 4 hours ago, Temp said: +1 It's not clear how it scales to people above and below average due to standing charges and the like. The average numbers, which are good enough for most things, are here: https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/information-consumers/energy-advice-households/check-if-energy-price-cap-affects-you These are the Typical Domestic Consumption Values which OFGEM use to get to £1971 etc, and their 3 levels. https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/sites/default/files/docs/2020/01/tdcvs_2020_decision_letter_0.pdf They still seem to be using the 'current' ones for the Price Cap. Our media, being useless plank-like scaremongering morons, use the middle number and pretend it applies to everyone. eg .28*3100+.45*365+.27*365+.07*12000 = 1970.8. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AliG Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 All the various predictions at the moment are entirely based by taking the current wholesale price of gas and electricity and extrapolating it forwards. Whilst this is fine in the short term, it has little predictive power in the longer term. The price of gas has doubled since early June, hence the massive recent increase in predictions for the next energy cap and the one in January which would see the full effect of recent increases. Predictions from just three or four months ago were wildly wrong. Forecasts of a similar price next winter are worthless, considering the price of gas has doubled in two months it could as easily double again or fall by 50%. I am getting somewhat annoyed that politicians are not being honest about what is going on. This is almost 100% due to the war in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. Russia has retaliated by massively reducing the gas supply. Astonishingly the price of gas has gone up so much that Europe is giving more money to Russia than ever. Indeed the correct way to hurt the producer of a commodity is to increase supply and reduce use so that the price of the commodity falls. We have managed to achieve the opposite effect. We are basically having an economic war with Russia. There were some articles in the papers about it last week. The Russians think that we will give up before they run out of the ability to fight Ukraine. I think people are hardier than they realise, but telling them honestly what is happening would help a lot. I find it quite bizarre that the Daily Mail etc blame this on renewables which actually are helping the situation. That electricity from the new Hinkley station will also be looking a lot better value than originally. Gas is a more regional commodity than oil and because so much of it is used for domestic heating in Europe, it also has less elastic demand. Thus the producers are in a much more powerful position than they are with oil, where substitution and buying it from elsewhere are easier. Basically it is a lot easier not to drive than it is not to turn on your heating and gas boilers don't have any alternative in the short run. Anyway we have got ourselves in a very difficult situation I am in the fortunate position that I have an efficient house and I can afford the increases. Some people are going to be wiped out by this. It is not easy for the government to do anything about it. They would basically have to borrow money to pay people's energy bills. With almost 28m UK households, it would cost over £30bn a year to stop bills going up more. They were supposed to be looking at the pricing of electricity as fixed cost producers are coining in at the moment. I guess the windfall tax is an easy way to capture this. The price of gas, however, is simply driven by the rising price of gas. The long term solution is more renewables and more insulation. The short term solution is the end of the war, something that I wouldn't begin to try and predict. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LA3222 Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 (edited) 17 minutes ago, AliG said: All the various predictions at the moment are entirely based by taking the current wholesale price of gas and electricity and extrapolating it forwards. Whilst this is fine in the short term, it has little predictive power in the longer term. The price of gas has doubled since early June, hence the massive recent increase in predictions for the next energy cap and the one in January which would see the full effect of recent increases. Predictions from just three or four months ago were wildly wrong. Forecasts of a similar price next winter are worthless, considering the price of gas has doubled in two months it could as easily double again or fall by 50%. I am getting somewhat annoyed that politicians are not being honest about what is going on. This is almost 100% due to the war in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. Russia has retaliated by massively reducing the gas supply. Astonishingly the price of gas has gone up so much that Europe is giving more money to Russia than ever. Indeed the correct way to hurt the producer of a commodity is to increase supply and reduce use so that the price of the commodity falls. We have managed to achieve the opposite effect. We are basically having an economic war with Russia. There were some articles in the papers about it last week. The Russians think that we will give up before they run out of the ability to fight Ukraine. I think people are hardier than they realise, but telling them honestly what is happening would help a lot. I find it quite bizarre that the Daily Mail etc blame this on renewables which actually are helping the situation. That electricity from the new Hinkley station will also be looking a lot better value than originally. Gas is a more regional commodity than oil and because so much of it is used for domestic heating in Europe, it also has less elastic demand. Thus the producers are in a much more powerful position than they are with oil, where substitution and buying it from elsewhere are easier. Basically it is a lot easier not to drive than it is not to turn on your heating and gas boilers don't have any alternative in the short run. Anyway we have got ourselves in a very difficult situation I am in the fortunate position that I have an efficient house and I can afford the increases. Some people are going to be wiped out by this. It is not easy for the government to do anything about it. They would basically have to borrow money to pay people's energy bills. With almost 28m UK households, it would cost over £30bn a year to stop bills going up more. They were supposed to be looking at the pricing of electricity as fixed cost producers are coining in at the moment. I guess the windfall tax is an easy way to capture this. The price of gas, however, is simply driven by the rising price of gas. The long term solution is more renewables and more insulation. The short term solution is the end of the war, something that I wouldn't begin to try and predict. We are essentially reaping the reward of poor planning decisions taken Europe wide over the last 10/15 years and much further if you take other areas into consideration. Such is life, politicians always make decisions for a quick quid pro quo, keeps them elected and earning a wage, unfortunately the next lot come in and inherit the mess which inevitably gets shoved onto our laps. I suppose in a way we are as much to blame for that, we elect them on their promises to suit our own bottom line so just have to suck it up when the piper comes a piping. It's tough. Most on here who can afford the luxury of self building are probably able to ride it out, it will be a lot tougher for those living hand to mouth. Doesn't make it an easier pill to swallow for anyone though. I'm gambling on the prices being rough through the winter and then calming down next spring - purely based on the fact that I detest the idea of fixing at 54p/kWh - I may come to regret this choice. 54p - crazy times. Edited August 10, 2022 by LA3222 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radian Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 32 minutes ago, AliG said: I find it quite bizarre that the Daily Mail etc blame this on renewables which actually are helping the situation. Oh plenty of people buy into that... While cursing the waiting list for getting PV on their roofs 🙄 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Temp Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 15 minutes ago, LA3222 said: I'm gambling on the prices being rough through the winter and then calming down next spring - purely based on the fact that I detest the idea of fixing at 54p/kWh - I may come to regret this choice. 54p - crazy times. I think they will remain high for longer... Quote LONDON, Aug 2 (Reuters) - Britain's cap on domestic energy prices is expected to rise by 70% in October and remain high until at least 2024, analysts warned on Tuesday, ramping up pressure on politicians vying to become the country's prime minister. And in April Cornwall Insight were predicting they would remain high until 2030. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ferdinand Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 I'm somewhat concerned that Cornwall Insight have become the only voice covered on this. An effective monopoly on media commentary is always a bad sign. I'm also concerned that both contenders to be PM are taking the Boris Buttsitting approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ProDave Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ferdinand said: I'm also concerned that both contenders to be PM are taking the Boris Buttsitting approach. From recent tv interviews, if Gordon Brown was on the list, he would get my vote. I never thought I would say something like that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnMo Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 I think the oil companies and power generators are taking us for fools. And politicians just useless. Wind, tidal, solar, hydro, biofuel and nuclear cost no more to produce electricity than they did a couple of years ago. Neither does the oil and gas produced in the UK cost any more to get out of the ground and onshore. In Scotland the gross renewables is now equal to 97% of electrical demand. https://www.scottishrenewables.com/our-industry/statistics Gas only accounts for about 10% installed capacity. Buts it's cost dominates the overall cost of electricity. Cost to us has gone up hugely, and the profits of oil/gas producers just ridiculous. Its all stupid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelvin Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 31 minutes ago, Radian said: Oh plenty of people buy into that... While cursing the waiting list for getting PV on their roofs 🙄 I can’t even get a quote from two suppliers I’ve tried for our build although expecting a quote from a third company on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelvin Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 20 minutes ago, JohnMo said: I think the oil companies and power generators are taking us for fools. And politicians just useless. Wind, tidal, solar, hydro, biofuel and nuclear cost no more to produce electricity than they did a couple of years ago. Neither does the oil and gas produced in the UK cost any more to get out of the ground and onshore. In Scotland the gross renewables is now equal to 97% of electrical demand. https://www.scottishrenewables.com/our-industry/statistics Gas only accounts for about 10% installed capacity. Buts it's cost dominates the overall cost of electricity. Cost to us has gone up hugely, and the profits of oil/gas producers just ridiculous. Its all stupid Agreed. It’s also ironic that while domestic oil has reduced by about 15% in recent weeks Scotland is one of the most expensive regions. There’s every likelihood that my next oil purchase will cost slightly less than the last one and we don’t use a huge amount of electricity so we can get through the winter without it costing us too much more than last year. I pity the folk that bought our old house. Fully electric with ASHP. Insulation could be better and it’s quite a big house. I never fitted PV despite a huge south facing roof because I knew we would move before any benefit. They are on a variable tariff so I reckon they are looking at about £540 per month. Council tax was high too at £337 per month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyscotland Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 22 minutes ago, JohnMo said: I think the oil companies and power generators are taking us for fools. And politicians just useless. Wind, tidal, solar, hydro, biofuel and nuclear cost no more to produce electricity than they did a couple of years ago. Neither does the oil and gas produced in the UK cost any more to get out of the ground and onshore. In Scotland the gross renewables is now equal to 97% of electrical demand. https://www.scottishrenewables.com/our-industry/statistics Gas only accounts for about 10% installed capacity. Buts it's cost dominates the overall cost of electricity. Cost to us has gone up hugely, and the profits of oil/gas producers just ridiculous. Its all stupid 100% this. The biggest issue is surely the way the wholesale electricity market pays the gas-based price to the renewables generators even tho, as you say, their costs have not changed. Quite why the government can't just intervene and say "force majeure folks, we need to renegotiate the contracts" I don't know. It must be possible to find a price per kWh for wind power that still gives the turbine owner a healthy profit on their investment (beyond anything they could have anticipated) but is still lower than they are being paid at the moment? It seems to me that's entirely in the government's hands, would make a real difference to the cost of people's bills, and without costing the taxpayer anything. Perhaps I'm missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AliG Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 Time and again when serious problems like this come along the government appears to be seriously lacking in imagination. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeSharp01 Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, AliG said: Time and again when serious problems like this come along the government appears to be seriously lacking in imagination. not just imagination but perhaps, with a few exceptions, also: moral fibre / creativity / intellectual capacity / any interest in or empathy with the people they are supposed to be serving / leadership skills / negotiation skills / emotional intelligence / persuasion capabilities / sense of economic reality / ability to share and adhere to the truth - shall I go on? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LA3222 Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Temp said: I think they will remain high for longer... Part of me agrees with you, but on the other hand I'm not sure how they can. People are on their arse already with this, if it doubles again I can see riots and god knows what else happening. There is going to be a tipping point where whatever rise is hoiked onto us, people are going to snap and people will be snaggling themselves luxury goods during all the riots that kick off. I suspect that the next announcement of profits by the big energy suppliers may well.be the spark that sets this off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelvin Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 They clearly don’t model all the scenarios. Could a war have been predicted maybe not. Could Russia throttling the supply of gas to Europe be predicted in some way then probably yes. Germany is in a significantly worse predicament. My guess is there will be pressure put on Zelensky to reach some negotiated position with Russia in exchange for Russian gas supplies to be increased. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pocster Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 39 minutes ago, Kelvin said: They clearly don’t model all the scenarios. Could a war have been predicted maybe not. Could Russia throttling the supply of gas to Europe be predicted in some way then probably yes. Germany is in a significantly worse predicament. My guess is there will be pressure put on Zelensky to reach some negotiated position with Russia in exchange for Russian gas supplies to be increased. I agree with everything you say but … electric consumption was projected to double in the U.K. by 2030 ( from memory ) gas / oil is a finite resource and therefore will always cost more to extract Environmental/ climate issues known for a long time No one could predict war / Covid / brexit - but the issues were known - just largely ignored . imho it was inevitable we’d end up here - but like everyone I couldn’t predict the path and speed . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radian Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, pocster said: imho it was inevitable we’d end up here - but like everyone I couldn’t predict the path and speed . At first it was the US electing Trump that started me thinking: what wheels have fallen off to get us into this dreadful place. Then after a few more bits of undercarriage fell off in the UK, it struck me how just much bullshit was backed-up and how it was now being liberally spayed around the world. If bullshit is allowed to go unchecked, nature has a way of making the consequences felt (eventually) even if people are too far up their own arses to notice or care. Much like how water has a way of introducing a dose of reality despite your plumber or roofer's bullshit. Climate change, Brexit, Ukraine and even Covid can all be seen clearly through this lens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldkettle Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 3 hours ago, AliG said: I find it quite bizarre that the Daily Mail etc blame this on renewables which actually are helping the situation. I am sure you know how large European reserves of gas are... and also know that unlike the US Europe decided not to use these. So yes, idiotic policies concentrating on renewables rather than competition are to blame - obviously, alongside the decision to rely on a single producer to such a degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteamyTea Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 (edited) 5 hours ago, SimonD said: The problem is that there are no transparent figures and the /kWh prices vary by region. There is. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/regional-and-local-authority-electricity-consumption-statistics https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/gas-sales-and-numbers-of-customers-by-region-and-local-authority Edited August 10, 2022 by SteamyTea 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperJohnG Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 I'm on octopus variable at our build, however Octopus made a cod of it and couldnt figure out I have two addresses (one being current house and other self build) so they dont bill the self build. I've only used 70kWH so far at build, but it's been connected since December but haven't actually been billed. I've move out into the caravan shortly at the build, so will hopefully have reduced usage until we get in house, but even at that not sure how long it will take them to figure that and bill me. Now all I know is I regret mot getting solar even more...might buy the panels as we go into winter when hopefully more available and cheaper. If that will even exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Temp Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 14 hours ago, Ferdinand said: I'm somewhat concerned that Cornwall Insight have become the only voice covered on this. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/08/11/markets-live-latest-coronavirus-news-pound-euro-ftse-100/ "Consultancy Auxilione said Ofgem may have to set the price cap at £5,038 per year for the average household amid elevated gas prices." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Temp Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 14 hours ago, JohnMo said: think the oil companies and power generators are taking us for fools. And politicians just useless. Wind, tidal, solar, hydro, biofuel and nuclear cost no more to produce electricity than they did a couple of years ago. Neither does the oil and gas produced in the UK cost any more to get out of the ground and onshore. That's all true but energy is sold to the highest bidder and when demand exceeds supply look what happens... https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11047167/UK-forced-electricity-Belgium-heatwave-stop-blackout-paid-5-000-MORE.html Quote Britain paid the highest price on record for electricity in London last week as the capital narrowly avoided a power blackout. The National Grid’s Electricity System Operator (ESO) was forced to pay £9,724.54 per megawatt hour to Belgium, more than 5,000% the typical price on Wednesday. Otherwise controllers would have had to disconnect homes, forcing a blackout in south-east London, Bloomberg reported. The average price paid for a megawatt hour of electricity so far this year is £178. A sequence of issues around the hottest UK days on record led to extreme constraints in the power system and hiked up demand. Fortunately.. Quote the amount bought at the record amount was minimal - reportedly enough to supply eight houses for a year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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