Where is the kWh price heading in 2022?

[AliG]

Norway has privatised Statoil, the state oil company.

 

They have done a fantastic job of investing taxes and other levies raised from oil production. That is a different topic to the business of running energy companies. They are a small country with a lot of oil and gas, hence more money than they need to spend. Whether or not the UK could have done this in the past is a moot point now.

 

As to Vattenfall, TBF I doubt it makes much difference whether electricity generators are state owned or privately owned as it is a very highly regulated industry with modest profit margins and returns. Hence my point that SSE was unfairly maligned, it is the oil and gas companies whose profits are soaring, not electricity generators.

 

The history of government owned oil and gas E&P companies is generally very poor.

[SimonD]

5 hours ago, AliG said:

Norway has privatised Statoil, the state oil company.

 

The Norwegian state owns 67% of Equinor which used to be Statoil. The state derives its revenue from the oil industry in part through taxation, in part through the state's direct financial interest arrangements and of course dividend. The organisational design is evidently not your typical plc and actually confirms that the company is essentially owned by the state.

 

5 hours ago, AliG said:

Hence my point that SSE was unfairly maligned, it is the oil and gas companies whose profits are soaring, not electricity generators.

 Yup, the oil and gas companies are definitely coining it in but SSE's Q3 trading statement was hardly gloomy. In fact they're so positive about trading that adjusted earnings per share is now up to at least 90p from 83p. It looks like they're going to be fairly generous with dividend payments too at 81p plus RPI. Not too shabby given the current market. In September reported Earnings per share were up 65% mainly as a result of market volatility. More interestingly the SSE interim results of 30 September 2021 state that while renewable profits were down, this:

 

Quote

was more than offset by higher volumes and revenue allowances in regulated networks, and a strong
performance from non-core businesses, notably gas storage

 

I also don't think it was intended to malign SSE as such, it was simply that the data used for calculation was from published SSE figures which are broadly representiative of the market.

 

6 hours ago, AliG said:

I doubt it makes much difference whether electricity generators are state owned or privately owned as it is a very highly regulated industry with modest profit margins and returns.

 

If that is indeed the case, then having it under national public control and ownership makes more financial sense. If margins and returns are indeed tight then investment typically suffers (as we know) and value is extracted for the benefit of shareholders, and surprisingly, a huge buildup of corporate debt. Just look at the debt held by SSE, yet still paying generous dividends. SSE debt in 2021 was over £9.5billion pounds and if I've got it right the servicing of this debt costs about £200 million, operating profit of £376m

 

And that is the pattern what we have seen develop over the last 10-20 years in many large companies, so it does make a difference. It's a pattern of corporate behaviour that doesn't belong anywhere near energy generation as it's unsustainable.

[oldkettle]

13 hours ago, SimonD said:

In fact they're so positive about trading that adjusted earnings per share is now up to at least 90p from 83p. It looks like they're going to be fairly generous with dividend payments too at 81p plus RPI. Not too shabby given the current market.

 

Did you compare these massive dividends with the share price? 

[CotswoldDoItUpper]

Given that the price cap is going up tomorrow to 30/31p per kWh, what is the current thinking of what it’s going to be in October? I’ve heard wild variations, but thought it’d be best to ask the expert hive-mind of build hub…

[ProDave]

Unless you have gone to a fixed tariff there is nothing you can do.  It depends a lot I expect on what happens in the eastern block between now and then.

 

I would be very surprised if it goes down.

[SteamyTea]

If Putin turns the tap of to the 'unfriendly' countries out bills will go down a lot.

Have to get used to only having a few hours of power each day.

[ProDave]

24 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

If Putin turns the tap of to the 'unfriendly' countries out bills will go down a lot.

Have to get used to only having a few hours of power each day.

He is demanding payment in Roubles not Euro's so it could get "interesting"

[SteamyTea]

Just now, ProDave said:

He is demanding payment in Roubles

I have some.

[Onoff]

We really are the architects of our own destruction? A great headline in Sky on the lines of "Can Renewables Solve The Energy Crisis?"

 

Talking to East European friends and colleagues and they are forever amazed at how poorly insulated British homes are by comparison to say where they come from in Poland. 

 

Insulation is what could solve the energy crisis. That's the bottom line, stop wasting what we have and using it inefficiently.

 

We're fed this constant diet of b@lll@cks to switch to an EV, fit PV or a heat pump etc. The utter insanity of people getting free heat pumps fitted to totally unsuitable houses. Why can't the government beat the "You Need Only Fit Insulation Once" drum? The key being to do it right.

 

It's all about the coin, how many times do we see mass house builders skimp on insulation or miss it out. Hell we've even had folk on here building high spec, low energy builds where they've entrusted the insulation works to a builder. The ensuing lack of attention to detail has meant draughts and higher energy bills.

[JohnMo]

Also shows how out of touch politicians are with reality. Let's remove vat on insulation but only if you also pay someone to install it.

 

They should be paying for TV campaigns that shows impartial information on the benefit of insulation, how to self install, where the best areas are to start installing etc.  Same with draft proofing.

 

I am NOT talking let's make it air tight and install MVHR, much more basic level as most the UK housing stock is so poor with regards insulation, that's a cheap fix and a lot of people can DIY that or become informed enough (by TV campaigns) to know what to ask an installer to do.

 

Then paying for it to be UK made and almost given away.

[SteamyTea]

15 minutes ago, Onoff said:

Insulation is what could solve the energy crisis

It could only solve part of it.  If we got rid of all domestic usage, we would save, nationally, about 30% of the primary energy usage.

The big problem is insulating old buildings.  We have seen what happens when the job is done badly, why we have forgotten about Grenfell, less than 5 years ago.

To cover both energy security and meet CC obligations, we need to be electrifying as fast as we can.  Anything else is just adding more sticky plasters.

[ProDave]

37 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

To cover both energy security and meet CC obligations, we need to be electrifying as fast as we can.  Anything else is just adding more sticky plasters.

"Electrifying" does not solve the problem if the extra electricity needed comes from imported gas.  It would in fact make the problem worse.

 

There is no quick fix for decades of continuing to build lousy houses and decades of a dud energy policy.

[markc]

You could electrify everything but without efficiency you are gaining nothing

[Pocster]

Agree that the main issue is insulating current ( old ) properties . Without being heartless I was thinking when Ukraine rebuilds entire cities they could set an exemplary example of sustainable , low carbon , efficient housing ……

Perhaps we need to knock everything down ….

[ProDave]

12 minutes ago, pocster said:

Perhaps we need to knock everything down ….

I am sure in some places there is a need for a 21st century "slum clearance" program to rebuild these old houses that are impossible to upgrade properly.  But who pays?

 

The EPC system was introduced expecting people to demand an A+++ house just like they will only bay an A+++ washing machine, but it has been largely ignored.  I am still of the view that houses with a poor EPC should be worth less than those with a good EPC, to reflect the high running costs or cost of work needed to upgrade them.  I saw a flat near here advertised with an EPC G07  I think that is the worst I have ever seen.

[Pocster]

10 minutes ago, ProDave said:

I am sure in some places there is a need for a 21st century "slum clearance" program to rebuild these old houses that are impossible to upgrade properly.  But who pays?

 

The EPC system was introduced expecting people to demand an A+++ house just like they will only bay an A+++ washing machine, but it has been largely ignored.  I am still of the view that houses with a poor EPC should be worth less than those with a good EPC, to reflect the high running costs or cost of work needed to upgrade them.  I saw a flat near here advertised with an EPC G07  I think that is the worst I have ever seen.

Who pays - is indeed the big question….. unfortunately I don’t have the answer . 

[joe90]

1 hour ago, Onoff said:

Why can't the government beat the "You Need Only Fit Insulation Once" drum? The key being to do it right.

I have been saying that for years, rather than a £5Kw grant fir a heat pump a £5k grant fir insulation even DIY.

[joe90]

2 minutes ago, pocster said:

Who pays - is indeed the big question….. unfortunately I don’t have the answer . 

Well I did my bit, I replaced a badly built timber and asbestos bungalow with a well insulated efficient house but not many can afford that so building regs and on site monitoring must get better.

[SteamyTea]

Electrification in the only generation that can be done cleanly.  It does not have to be fossil fuel based.

 

So which is easier.

Insulating all 30 million properties to an average U-Value of 0.2 W.m^-2.K

Building another 10,000 5 MW wind turbines (about 200 GWh, or around 6.5 MWh per house).

 

I idea of rebuilding is attractive, but not practical if you have to quickly house 5 million people.

 

"Don't let the better be the enemy of the good"

[Russell griffiths]

We seem to have a fascination in this country of keeping old shit, the majority of the grade two listed houses aren’t worth keeping. 

 

When we were in Australia I brought a house built in 1980 and it was prime for redevelopment, it either needed a full refurb or knock down, we took half down and extended on the end and built it all new, this was in 2007. 

So 25 to 30 years over there they need a full strip out and rebuild. 

Why do we continue to live in 1900 built rubbish and keep smearing a bit more polyfiller over the cracks, just add some 3mm polystyrene sheet to the walls and then woodchip over the top, will be ok for another 100 years. 

[Radian]

13 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

Building another 10,000 5 MW wind turbines (about 200 GWh, or around 6.5 MWh per house).

 

 

First you need to deport the the honourable member for the 18th century. Jacob Rees-Mogg (the Brexit opportunities minister 😖) suggested that we should return to fracking and firmly opposes land based wind turbines. He's now got Boris stressing that offshore is the only place for turbines just like their favourite tax havens.

[Mr Blobby]

On 18/03/2022 at 00:24, SimonD said:

 

If that is indeed the case, then having it under national public control and ownership makes more financial sense.
 

 

And the energy markets set up for market participants are fiendishly complex and costly.  And less efficient.

[ToughButterCup]

2 minutes ago, Russell griffiths said:

We seem to have a fascination in this country of keeping old shit, the majority of the grade two listed houses aren’t worth keeping. 

... 

When we were in Australia I brought a house built in 1980 and it was prime for redevelopment...

 

When in Rome, do as the Romans. Ditto Australia. 

[SteamyTea]

5 minutes ago, Radian said:

 

First you need to deport the the honourable member for the 18th century. Jacob Rees-Mogg (the Brexit opportunities minister 😖) suggested that we should return to fracking and firmly opposes land based wind turbines. He's now got Boris stressing that offshore is the only place for turbines just like their favourite tax havens.

In many ways, though a bit more costly, off shore is a good place for wind turbines.  Probably why Vattenfall have an office in PZ.

A few years ago, over at the other place, there was a hot debate about on shore wind turbines.

Most agreed that they were acceptable 'in the right place', which was no where close to where they lived.

The right place for on shore wind it on top hills, and then as large as possible.  When I said that, it did not go down to well.

 

Somehow I think that J R-M will do little damage, he is an irrelevance and most know it.  Having said that like Boris in he past, he is entertaining.

[SimonD]

14 minutes ago, Mr Blobby said:

And the energy markets set up for market participants are fiendishly complex and costly.  And less efficient.

 

That's a good point. Interestingly I've been consuming the recent book by Helen Thompson, Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century which takes a fascinating and very worthwile look at energy and geopolitics and puts quite a lot of current issues into perspective.