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Showing content with the highest reputation on 08/21/22 in all areas
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To state the obvious this is a very difficult problem. Russia was almost 40% of European gas supply. As they have cut supply by 80%, then we are short around 30% of previous supply. Note that as the price has risen around 10x then they will be making twice as much money at current levels of supply as before. This might actually suggest that even if the war ended they could just restrict supply indefinitely, although it is hard to say how much of the current price includes an certainty factor due to Ukraine and the unpredictability of Russia. The SNP plan had me looking at how gas sufficient the UK is. It appears as if the UK produces around 66% of the gas it uses (quick Google so may be wrong). So nationalising our energy companies would be entirely pointless as we would still have to import lots of gas. This kind of nonsense would even more destroy the gas markets and drive prices further up. The £6000 number being bandied about just does what I mentioned the other day, which is take the latest spot price and project it out forever. As the spot price can move dramatic amounts in a few days this has almost zero value as a prediction. So what to do? Basically Europe needs to get the market as close to back in balance as possible. i.e. they need a combination of supply increases and usage reduction that offset the 30% reduction in supply. It looks as if the increase in LNG imports is equivalent to between 10 and 15% of EU demand. Of course this also requires increased gas supply outside the EU and has driven up prices in the US. But assume that other countries can cover this extra supply. Then this would suggest that Europe needs to increase supply/reduce demand by around 20%. At this point the loss of Russian gas will be irrelevant. Prices would still no doubt be higher, but not anywhere near as high. It takes a long time to bring on gas supply, we can probably only increase it by a few percent a year. This suggests that the 15% reduction in demand being bandied about is maybe correct. As someone said though, how much gas is wasted? I think you do need prices to go up quite a lot to encourage people to reduce consumption, but £3000 is probably the price where there is enough pain to do that. The problem is though that as a very high percentage of gas is used for space and water heating as well as electricity production, people cannot alter consumption of these that quickly. We cannot insulate every house in the country in a few months. Reading Facebook utility user groups suggests that a lot of people, unlike on here, just don't understand enough about the workings of their heating system and use of energy to maximise efficiency (e.g. people who worry about phone chargers being plugged in, which uses a laughably negligible amount of electricity) Still it does give me hope that over a couple of years we could pretty much wean Europe off Russian gas through a combination of LNG imports, supply increases and demand reduction including more renewables to make electricity. It will be painful until we get there. One of the best policies might be to educate people about energy use and how to save it (frankly I sometimes think we need to send someone door to door to explain to people how to reduce energy use) Now all we need is a plan to do this and a politician willing to actually give people a straightforward explanation of what is happening. If the gas markets were convinced this was going to happen, gas prices would also start to fall. They don't want to buy up gas futures to find no buyers n a couple of years. Out the other side of this, it will have accelerated energy efficiency and the move to renewables but it is hard to see those benefits sitting on the precipice as we are now. This is the danger of allowing a massive short term increase in prices. People will find a way around using your product.2 points
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We designed and built our own house to PH standards and didn't use an architect and I did the PHPP modelling. We were members of the AECB at the time and spoke to local architects about the build and had large numbers of AECB members visiting our site. From what we found out, there was little understanding of what PH really meant and the only certified PH architect visitor didn't fill me with confidence. I must add this was twelve years ago and things may have improved. I certainly wouldn't bother with employing an architect unless they were PH certified. It's important to model the design using the PHPP as you are then able to vary different aspects of the construction to find out where changes can be made to improve overall performance. By using this method we were able to build the house without having a conventional heating system and to design the internal layout to suit our requirements.2 points
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I agree with this 100% - what I can’t fathom is why government has such a short term view and a complete inability to see the usually obvious consequences. The list of blunders when some outcomes are obvious is startling .2 points
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A couple of lintels are overkill loading wise but as they cost very little and are convenient they are the way to go2 points
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This is what I use on my immersion heater, and my storage heaters. Bought them in 2013, not had a problem. https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B0066NEBO62 points
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Been there, done it, got the T-Shirt. A price shock really brings the point home. The main problem is that many people will blame externalities i.e. VAT, Green Taxes, overseas war, but make no attempt to actually change anything that they have some control over. An old girlfriend of mine runs a 2 kW fan heater all day in her living room, which is a good 1/3rd of the area of her house. She has gas central heating, TRV on all the radiators, but has convinced herself that it costs more to turn the central heating on. Her BiL is a plumber and gas fitter, she has worked with him, on and off, for many years. In her mind, the problem is the housing association, not her choices. She is (expletive deleted)ing mental though.1 point
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As it’s inside there is little chance of rapid drying through sun or wind so nothing required1 point
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I live a pretty basic lifestyle (by choice) and as a self employed person I only turn over about £20-22k a year my outgoings are fairly high as I support 2 kids 50% of the time as well as feeding and housing 2 other adults for 6 month of the year, I run an Airbnb so have all the overheads associated with this. Most years I can save about 4-5k which goes mostly on building materials and repairs and maintenance. I am working towards getting another building finished so that I can rent it out and boost my income by 10-15k but it’s still a year or two from being done. In the past it’s all gone well but this year my bank balance is pretty thread bare……. The general price rises have squeezed my margins to nothing and I am eating into what little savings I have, it’s pretty unsettling with the electric price increases that may come as between the various buildings I have and the Airbnb my current electric cost is £300 per month. I have upgraded the insulation in my house walls and ceiling which has made a significant difference to comfort but still need to replace the 4 windows which are totally shite…. No insulation in the floor and not easily done at this time. The immersion is virtually never put on. Not quite sure where I will make the financial cuts to cover the ever increasing cost of living but I am sure I will come up with something 😁1 point
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That encapsulates the problem perfectly. Short of being in a communist style command economy, Government interventions are often unable to have their intended effects due to the adaptations made by the free market economy.1 point
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We are being manipulated. Petrol price rises then the 5p off the tax was never fully passed on . Government will ( has to ! ) intervene at some point . But I guess they like it to be real bad so they come along as the hero’s and save us all in our moment of need .1 point
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Generally alright if prepped correctly. While expandion differential is possible, I have never noticed it in practice. GRP is 25x10-6m.m-1.K-1 Aluminium 21 to 24x10-6m.m-1.K-1 Steal 11 to 13x10-6m.m-1.K-1 All very small movements over a few metres and if bonded to each other, tend to take the median value.1 point
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Thanks! I will have up to 6m runs, and last thing I want is the aluminium trim spiralling out of shape. So, stick to GRP trims I guess, and the one as per the latter link should be fine to use? Seeing that it is made out of GRP.1 point
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The board is for an expansion joint and the sleeves ensure the wall does not move out of alignment (or fall over in extreme cases) so yes you need both1 point
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I have no way of measuring my delivered energy but comparison with my previous oil consumption suggests I achieve a SCoP of around 3 with my ASHP. And that is with all radiators, UFH should do better.1 point
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You say you have an internal foil like layer but what about the EWI? Has that also got a foil layer or two? And your glazing - low E? The coating is metallic. All this makes a superb Faraday cage. Get a WiFi signal checker app on your phone and wander outside with it.1 point
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I heard a snippet on the radio news on the way home this afternoon that someone is now predicting the price cap for the typical house is now likely to be £6000 Why do I get the feeling we are going through some manipulation, with ever increasing unbelievable price rise estimates, to butter us up to accept the actual rise as "phew is that all"?1 point
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I have a small (4KW) ASHP that heats my DHW tank (and UFH when it’s needed fir just a couple of months). Works very well, cop of about 4, no mains gas available (so no gas standing order). Yes heat loss is down to insulation but that loss is into the house anyway! So not always a “loss“.1 point
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What about a couple of decent telegraph poles as possible cheap posts? You could machine square faces at the top to fix through. Black to match your downpipes. Be careful sliding glass straight into wood. Any warpage will crack the glass. Better to have an intermediate "channel" to deal with expansion. You can of course recess the channel flush with the balustrade uprights.1 point
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Oil price haven't got to levels they were at during the five years, 2010 to 2015. Think the issue is not the oil price, but processing capacity; as we out sourced most things (diesel and petrol) to other countries like Russia to make a CO2 emissions look good.1 point
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Oil has now fallen to $88. This is less than it was before Russia invaded Ukraine. Yet petrol and Heating Oil prices are still way up there.1 point
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Only when you're trying to save money. When you're trying to ensure continuity of supply you need to store at any price.1 point
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Yes mine is self install so no MCS and no export payment = I don't want any export. The Octopus Outgoing tariff will change the equation for some, but I believe that still needs an MCS install? and it needs a smart meter, something I am resisting as long as possible.1 point
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My Solic200 cost £144. I am displacing gas consumption, and have around 2 to 3 year payback. Not sure why you are paying £500, get the basics, does what it says on the tin, nothing more or less.1 point
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Much of it depends on how much DHW is used. I use about 30 lt a day, other may use 200 lt.1 point
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The timer will use 3kW per hour no matter what you PV output is. So if your generating 1kW, you will be paying for 2kWh. The diverter only sends any excess to the immersion. So if your generating 1kW and using 800W, only 200W will go to you immersion.1 point
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https://www.granddesignsmagazine.com/grand-designs-houses/grand-designs-new-series-2022/?utm_medium=email&utm_term=&utm_content=READ MORE&utm_source=Grand Designs Magazine&utm_campaign=New TV series coming soon! Here's what to expect... I'm particularly interested to see how a three-storey, 5 bed, 7 bathroom curved cantilevered 700m2 house with an initial budget of £700k turns out! 😂0 points
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