No deal Brexit impact

[Mr Punter]

I was pleased to read that the EU and UK have reached agreement over NI border checks.  Threatening to break international law was not very becoming.

[ProDave]

That "contract" graphic is the best I could find in a hurry.

 

There is a much better one that I have seen but could not find in a hurry that sets out the exact statement made and the date it was made by all the politicians declaring what we would get if we voted for Brexit.  Most of those are still MP's now and strangely none seem bothered that we are unlikely to get what they themselves promised before the referendum.

 

Whatever your view of Brexit, it bothers me greatly that nobody is accountable for anything they say in public office.

[Onoff]

1 hour ago, SteamyTea said:

 

And, why do leavers not change their minds and think they made a mistake.

 

I like Gary Glitter when I was young. Still hum along to his tunes.

But not allowed to claim he made a major contribution to British culture. 

 

 

 

Why should they? Right or wrong, maybe they don't think they made a mistake. You can't take away freedom of choice.

 

Gary would liked you when you were young I bet ?

[Simtronic]

15 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

Just taking the "The Government's Brexit Contract with the British People" at face value.

Are you saying that all contracts can now be broken, quick way to pay of a mortgage, or get out of a marriage.

 

I still think that remainers where more realistic and could see the downfalls.

And you are entitled to your view 

1 Never take anything a politician says at face value especially if they are in opposition whatever party they represent

2 all remainers would think that, as all leavers believe they are more realistic too

[Onoff]

3 hours ago, SteamyTea said:

I am quite happy to let all the remain voters work and pay tax to pay for me to wallow in collective self pity.  Seems fair that the 'victors' should do all the work, it is what they wanted.

 

You mean "happy to let all the leave voters work" I think?

[LA3222]

2 hours ago, SteamyTea said:

Because, when people say 'the majority voted to leave', it is not true. 

But equally, how can you lump those votes into your remain grouping? It is true there was no majority for leave, but where is the majority for remain??

[SteamyTea]

16 minutes ago, Onoff said:

 

You mean "happy to let all the leave voters work" I think?

Yes, I was covered in dust and blinded.

[SteamyTea]

4 minutes ago, LA3222 said:

But equally, how can you lump those votes into your remain grouping? It is true there was no majority for leave, but where is the majority for remain??

That goes back to my voting reform, not that it is relavant.

If you have a binary question, then realistically you need to have an overall majority. We have seen what has happened when you don't, not even a single party in power can agree.

We should really rerun it, then we will all be better off.

[Bitpipe]

2 hours ago, ToughButterCup said:

 

I am a remainer. I have never or will ever regard leavers as uneducated.

 

But I am shocked at the level of vitriol, and saddened at the very poor quality of thinking behind many of the points made.

Logical Fallacies (both formal and informal) are common on both sides of the argument. But one simple fact: that leavers won the election remains and must be respected.

Its not to my liking, but that's tough.

 

I used to train people to think logically.

It's fantastically rewarding watching students (of any age) start to analyse text and speech. And slowly realise that respectful skepticism is a pre-requisite for analysing complex issues.

The Brexit issue surely deserves that much respect. More honoured in the breach, it seems.

 

I agree, didn't go the way I wanted either but it's as valid as any other decision the country has ever made.

 

And yes, it's absolutely wrong to say that anyone voted Brexit is 'stupid' same as not everyone who voted remain was 'clever'.

 

it is fair to point out that leave had a higher success rate in economically inactive segments (retired & unemployed) and with those of a lower educational level so that could be because they felt immune from the consequences, disenfranchised etc.

 

What I've taken from the whole experience was that the leave argument was powerfully emotional (taking back control, sovereignty etc) and the remain argument was coldly factual. In effect they were speaking different languages so it's no surprise one can still not convince the other.

 

My concern was that the vote was legislated as advisory (so did not require the statutory 60% supermajority) but was then treated as sacrosanct. Also, the end state of leaving was (and is still not) clear so while those who voted remain were voting for the status quo, those who voted to leave likely had a spectrum of end states in mind (from the 'Norway deal' to a hard exit).

 

In the GFA referendum in NI in the late 90s, the hard negotiation came first and the people knew exactly what they were voting for (and there were some difficult to swallow compromises in there for all communities) so could not complain after. I made this point to Teresa May in person when she rang my doorbell one wet Jan afternoon in 2018

 

As a UK resident Irish citizen I obviously retain my EU citizen ship and remain free to live, work, travel and retire in the EU, as do my UK born kids who now have Irish passports. Ironically, we have more 'freedom' than our UK born peers.

 

[Dave Jones]

1 hour ago, ProDave said:

Whatever your view of Brexit, it bothers me greatly that nobody is accountable for anything they say in public office.

 

especially the ones in brussels we had no abilty to remove from office. a.k.a the Kinnocks

[Dave Jones]

22 hours ago, Bitpipe said:

 

I agree, didn't go the way I wanted either but it's as valid as any other decision the country has ever made.

 

And yes, it's absolutely wrong to say that anyone voted Brexit is 'stupid' same as not everyone who voted remain was 'clever'.

 

it is fair to point out that leave had a higher success rate in economically inactive segments (retired & unemployed) and with those of a lower educational level so that could be because they felt immune from the consequences, disenfranchised etc.

 

What I've taken from the whole experience was that the leave argument was powerfully emotional (taking back control, sovereignty etc) and the remain argument was coldly factual. In effect they were speaking different languages so it's no surprise one can still not convince the other.

 

My concern was that the vote was legislated as advisory (so did not require the statutory 60% supermajority) but was then treated as sacrosanct. Also, the end state of leaving was (and is still not) clear so while those who voted remain were voting for the status quo, those who voted to leave likely had a spectrum of end states in mind (from the 'Norway deal' to a hard exit).

 

In the GFA referendum in NI in the late 90s, the hard negotiation came first and the people knew exactly what they were voting for (and there were some difficult to swallow compromises in there for all communities) so could not complain after. I made this point to Teresa May in person when she rang my doorbell one wet Jan afternoon in 2018

 

As a UK resident Irish citizen I obviously retain my EU citizen ship and remain free to live, work, travel and retire in the EU, as do my UK born kids who now have Irish passports. Ironically, we have more 'freedom' than our UK born peers.

 

 

the Irish have done very well indeed out of the EU. Wonder how much of the massive amount of cash we wasted on the EU over the years ended up in south ireland. 

 

Probably why the roads here are crap, the schools dont have enough kit, impossible to get a GP appointment etc etc

Edited December 9, 2020 by jack
Please don't use derogatory language

[LA3222]

22 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

That goes back to my voting reform, not that it is relavant.

If you have a binary question, then realistically you need to have an overall majority. We have seen what has happened when you don't, not even a single party in power can agree.

We should really rerun it, then we will all be better off.

So you have a vote, turnout means that no-one gets above 50% and you propose re-running it.....really? The next vote happens, no-one gets over 50%, do we go again?

 

Re-running the vote is the worst idea i have heard. You talk about disenfranchised voters, what do you think a rerun would do? A lot of thos who 'won' first time around wouldn't bother voting again. So what impact does that have on the result if say remainers get over 50% of the vote? Its an even more skewed vote as leavers wouldn't be represented either by protest absence / spoiled ballots etc. A re-run is a ridiculous idea.

 

As for not having a binary question, what else do you put on there?  Yet another nonsensical remainer ploy. So we have 1. No 2. Yes - Soft Brexit 3. Yes - Hard Brexit.  No.1 gets 45%, No.2 gets 20%, No.3 get 30% - what is the solution there? No got the most votes in singular terms, but then 2 + 3 are both  leave voters with a total of 50% so does leave win? But then the vote is split with neither achieving your fabled 50% so what do we do? Re-run the vote or go with No.3 which only got 30% of all votes cast?

 

Farcical.

 

The Lib Dems got their Alternate Vote referendum in 2011:

 

The final result put the Yes vote at 32.1% and the No vote at 67.9%.

 

I sometimes wonder if the remain side focused their efforts now on embracing leave and have the country all pulling in the same direction we might actually achieve something positive. All this sniping at the Government etc serves one purpose and that is to undermine them and helps the EU politicians. A country presenting a united front, regardless of underlying feelings about what happened with the vote, can achieve more. 

 

Remainers could have had a soft Brexit, but they weren't happy with that and what did the sniping/undermining achieve? It brought Theresa May down and gave us Boris and potentially no deal (which I am happy with to be fair!). Remainers have no-one to blame but themselves.

 

[SteamyTea]

2 minutes ago, LA3222 said:

sometimes wonder if the remain side focused their efforts now on embracing leave and have the country all pulling in the same direction we might actually achieve something positive

So we have the perfect outcome.

Well done 'Leave'. You are the winners, now what is the prize, oh, a smaller economy and more expensive trade.

 

oh and i did not say we keep voting ad infinitum, just that the lies Brexiteers peddled have been exposed. That should spark concern to anyone that wants sovereignty, being governed by crooks, cheaters and untrustworthy people never ends well.

You will have to go back a few pages to see my ideas on voting reform. But as i said, not relevant as we have voted.

[Bitpipe]

22 hours ago, Dave Jones said:

the Irish have done very well indeed out of the EU. Wonder how much of the massive amount of cash we wasted on the EU over the years ended up in south ireland. 

 

Probably why the roads here are crap, the schools dont have enough kit, impossible to get a GP appointment etc etc

 

The UK got a pretty decent return on its membership fee, CBI estimates 10:1 It also represented just under 1% of GDP or 2% of public spending.

 

The reason for all of your latter issues are 100% down to the UK govt of the day and their approach to tax and spend.

 

 

Edited December 9, 2020 by jack
Amended to align with amendments to quoted post

[Dave Jones]

are the CBI that bastion of impartiality.

 

Sorry i don't do woke speak.

[LA3222]

14 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

 now what is the prize, oh, a smaller economy and more expensive trade.

Not a single person out there can say this is true - not one. I have yet to see an economical impact statement presented in the last 5yrs turn out to be true/accurate. Everything that George Osbourne / Mark Carney stated as fact turned out to be yet more nonsense spouted by the remain side.

 

We may well end up with a smaller economy, conversely we may end up booming. It is all conjecture so please don't present it as a given because it simply is not.

 

14 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

, just that the lies Brexiteers peddled have been exposed

They all lied - see financial impact statements presented by the former Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Governor of The Bank of England.

 

They all have 'opinions' and as expected their opinions are flavoured by their leanings. Only history will be able to judge if it was the right call or not - remainer predictions are just that, predictions. 

 

One of the things that really annoyed throughout was the willingness of the CoE and the Governor of the BoE to talk down the economy at every given opportunity. I would say the 'negativity' of the remain side, talking down the economy and the country at every turn played just as big a part in the result as red buses driving around with Brexit promises splashed across them.

 

Edited December 8, 2020 by LA3222

[epsilonGreedy]

4 hours ago, joe90 said:

Your getting to sound like Trump ?

 

 

@storminateacup makes a good point. Major constitutional changes typically require more than a simple 50.001% win to be put into effect. Cameron made a technical blunder agreeing to a simple majority referendum, this is because he was an arrogant toff of a PM who thought he could dragoon the little people into voting for remain.

[joe90]

Without getting into the “he said, she said” etc etc, it’s funny how none of the doom and gloom predictions after the Brexit result were announced have come true, I believe the same will happen after the end of the year, whichever way it goes.

[Temp]

Is it, or should it be, a human right to be able to vote for the people that govern you? 

 

After Brexit EU citizens resident in the UK can continue to vote in UK elections and even run as candidates. 

 

By contrast the British that live and work across the channel (Many of which only ever planned to work there temporarily and still have houses in the UK) weren't  allowed to vote in the Brexit Referendum and won't be able to elect MPs here. If they live and work in France they can't vote there either.  Only (?) Spain, Luxembourg and Portugal are allowing British nationals resident in their country to vote.

 

Some of these Brits were more or less forced to move abroad because Brexit stopped us selling financial services in the EU and their companies moved offices to the EU. 

[SteamyTea]

4 minutes ago, joe90 said:

Without getting into the “he said, she said” etc etc, it’s funny how none of the doom and gloom predictions after the Brexit result were announced have come true, I believe the same will happen after the end of the year, whichever way it goes.

We have not seen the problems caused by restrictive trade yet.

[markc]

5 minutes ago, joe90 said:

Without getting into the “he said, she said” etc etc, it’s funny how none of the doom and gloom predictions after the Brexit result were announced have come true, I believe the same will happen after the end of the year, whichever way it goes.

Couldnt agree more ... as someone who relies on working closely with Europe every day

[scottishjohn]

53 minutes ago, Dave Jones said:

 

especially the ones in brussels we had no abilty to remove from office. a.k.a the Kinnocks

and they have never balanced the books for the EU  EVER --had numerous accounting firms and when they start finding problems --they get sacked 

[Gone West]

4 hours ago, LA3222 said:

My decision to vote leave was in no way influenced by promises written on the side of red buses. I took that for the same political clap trap that remainers were spouting to support their arguments. I was under no illusions about what I was voting for and have no issues with a potential no deal. 

I was the same in that I didn't believe the promises/predictions of either side. I decided that I couldn't see any advantage in leaving the the EU, so voted remain. After the result of the referendum I would have preferred we didn't have a trade deal but had a year to sort out the Irish border issue and nothing else. What convinced you there was an advantage in leaving the EU.

[joe90]

4 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

We have not seen the problems caused by restrictive trade yet.

an article on the tv last night from someone who deals with all things “trade” said most industries already deal with the rest of the world so are up to speed on what’s required. Also John Harvey Jones said in an interview way back before the vote that industry on the whole will survive despite what any government does.

[joe90]

6 minutes ago, scottishjohn said:

and they have never balanced the books for the EU  EVER --had numerous accounting firms and when they start finding problems --they get sacked 

just one of the reasons I voted to leave. ?