Where is the kWh price heading in 2022?

[Kelvin]

40 minutes ago, Marvin said:

Sounds like a melt down....  

The very fact we have to consider heat banks and folk travelling on public transport to stay warm tells you everything you need to know why we need to treat like as if we are on a war footing. We’ll be sharing bath water next in front of the fire. 

Edited August 30, 2022 by Kelvin

[Onoff]

1 hour ago, Kelvin said:

We’ll be sharing bath water next in front of the fire. 

 

Then painting our legs with gravy browning!

[SteamyTea]

Just now, Onoff said:

 

Then painting our legs with gravy browning!

As long as you don't expect me to wear a stout RAF woollen skirt, and make my knickers out of parachutes.

[Marvin]

BP pulse EV charging rate now 55p/kWh . That would cost about 12p a mile for us.

[SteamyTea]

11 minutes ago, Marvin said:

BP pulse EV charging rate now 55p/kWh . That would cost about 12p a mile for us.

About 220Wh/mile then.

My old diesel is currently on 60MPG, 1320Wh/mile. 14p/mile [182p/litre, 10 kWh/litre].

Can pick up a car like mine for 300 quid.

 

 

[AliG]

Wholesale price of gas down almost 20% today, putting it back where it was the week before last. Shows why you cannot take the daily price and extrapolate it out for months/years.

[ProDave]

2 hours ago, Temp said:

In a statement, Good Energy said: "Alongside a small number of other suppliers, Good Energy is not subject to the price cap. “In our case, this is due to our commitment to provide 100pc renewable energy from around 1,700 independent generators using solar power, wind power, hydroelectricity and biomass, supporting the transition to a cleaner and greener supply. 

So, if they ONLY buy from independent green generators on a deal they have negotiated, then there is no need for their "wholesale" price to rise above general inflation as the costs to these green generators have not risen. There is no need for their "wholesale" price to be in any way influenced by the gas price for instance.  So they should be selling electricity to their consumers at a good price?

 

Why do i suspect that is not the case?

[Mr Blobby]

6 minutes ago, ProDave said:

So, if they ONLY buy from independent green generators on a deal they have negotiated, then there is no need for their "wholesale" price to rise above general inflation as the costs to these green generators have not risen. There is no need for their "wholesale" price to be in any way influenced by the gas price for instance.  So they should be selling electricity to their consumers at a good price?

 

Why do i suspect that is not the case?

 

Because when the wind isn't blowing and its dark outside and all of good energy's customers put the kettle on to make a nice cuppa in the adverts of coronation street, do they get a cold cup of tea?

 

[ProDave]

2 minutes ago, Mr Blobby said:

 

Because when the wind isn't blowing and its dark outside and all of good energy's customers put the kettle on to make a nice cuppa in the adverts of coronation street, do they get a cold cup of tea?

 

In which case statements like "we only supply 100% renewable electricity" should be outlawed.  Some people actually believe if they change to such a supplier, then all the electricity coming out of their sockets really does come from renewable sources only.

[Marvin]

22 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

About 220Wh/mile then.

My old diesel is currently on 60MPG, 1320Wh/mile. 14p/mile [182p/litre, 10 kWh/litre].

Can pick up a car like mine for 300 quid.

 

 

Yes but we use PV in the EV 95% of the time.

[Roger440]

48 minutes ago, ProDave said:

So, if they ONLY buy from independent green generators on a deal they have negotiated, then there is no need for their "wholesale" price to rise above general inflation as the costs to these green generators have not risen. There is no need for their "wholesale" price to be in any way influenced by the gas price for instance.  So they should be selling electricity to their consumers at a good price?

 

Why do i suspect that is not the case?

 

Because you live in the real world!

 

But you are right, there is no reason that renewables have gone up. Other than the way the market is contructed. Which of course is in the interests of those who did the constructing. 

 

HMG, could resolve that tommorow. But they wont. They will print more cash and give it gas companies.

[markc]

But any wind or solar must be backed up by fuel burning or nuke power.

company we have dealings with have a massive order book for 5000kva diesel generators to be supplied as fast as they can put them together.

 

[Miek]

42 minutes ago, ProDave said:

In which case statements like "we only supply 100% renewable electricity" should be outlawed.  Some people actually believe if they change to such a supplier, then all the electricity coming out of their sockets really does come from renewable sources only.

They are a supplier, not a generator, just a trading scheme. Greenwash as far as I'm concerned. Buy ones energy from a company who actually invest in renewable generation ( if one cares that is, which I do)

[Kelvin]

2 hours ago, ProDave said:

So, if they ONLY buy from independent green generators on a deal they have negotiated, then there is no need for their "wholesale" price to rise above general inflation as the costs to these green generators have not risen. There is no need for their "wholesale" price to be in any way influenced by the gas price for instance.  So they should be selling electricity to their consumers at a good price?

 

Why do i suspect that is not the case?

Because the charging scheme is priced based on the gas price which the renewable generators  also benefit from. Octopus et al are arguing to stop charging it like this. Even if it was a mixed price it would be much cheaper let alone charging it at cost price for renewable generation plus a fair margin. I read that the EU is looking to decouple the gas cost from the electricity price. 
 

The Government is going to have to look at doing just this plus freezing the cap. The risk of collapsing the economy is too great and QE or any other giveaway will just increase inflation. 

Edited August 30, 2022 by Kelvin

[saveasteading]

10 hours ago, ProDave said:

lunch in his chosen destination

I have heard that Morrisons is a favourite  for low-cost on such outings.

 

First you have to get to the bus stop though: one that has buses.

 

The German government has announced a huge reduction in car journeys when they introduced free (or v cheap) bus and train travel.

[Pocster]

12 hours ago, Onoff said:

£250 a month on take aways. I'd really rather not and always think how much insulation that would have bought. It turns into a row and I'm accused of "moaning" and get "It's only once a week!"

Sorry to hear your bedroom life is you only get it once a week . Still with no functional ufh in the bathroom that’s a saving .

[jack]

On 28/08/2022 at 17:03, Stones said:

I've read a few reports of Gas producers ending long term (low price) supply contracts by paying the break fee, as the current price means it's worthwhile doing so. Is there a risk electricity generators could do the same?

 

I know it's legal and makes business sense, but what utter cnuts.

 

On 28/08/2022 at 17:56, SteamyTea said:

I would have hated to have bought an EV knowing it will cost 25p to travel a mile. Only costing me 15p.

 

Where do you get 25p a mile?

 

My absolute worst case in winter is better than 3.5 miles/kWh, and I can charge at 7.5 p/kWh for 4 hours a night at home (like anyone else on Octopus Go). That's a bit over 2 p/mile. 

 

I also average more like 5 miles/kWh at this time of the year.

 

Even if I were to always pay the current typical rate of 55 p/kWh at a commercial charger, that still only amounts to about the 15 p/mile you're getting.

[Kelvin]

When we bought our EV it came with free membership of the Ionity network at 24p/kWh for 2 years so public charging away from Perthshire isn’t too dear for us for now. 

[Marvin]

Hi @ProDave, @markc, @Miek 

 

re green energy after dark, as I understand it Drax B uses wood pellets (delivered from USA) I think its defined as a renewable energy source.....

[Temp]

3 hours ago, ProDave said:

So, if they ONLY buy from independent green generators on a deal they have negotiated, then there is no need for their "wholesale" price to rise above general inflation as the costs to these green generators have not risen. There is no need for their "wholesale" price to be in any way influenced by the gas price for instance.  So they should be selling electricity to their consumers at a good price?

 

Why do i suspect that is not the case?

 

I always sell my house for the market value, I've never been tempted to sell one for the price I paid for it 🙂

 

 

 

[Miek]

7 minutes ago, Marvin said:

Hi @ProDave, @markc, @Miek 

 

re green energy after dark, as I understand it Drax B uses wood pellets (delivered from USA) I think its defined as a renewable energy source.....

Yes, biomass had been labelled Renewable unfortunately. 

[saveasteading]

35 minutes ago, Marvin said:

I think its defined as a renewable energy source

Yes it is. Such a nonsense.

When I had a substantial amount of salvaged timber in the SE, I tried all the agencies, who had given me glossy books about the circular economy,  to get it reused, then recycled, then incinerated for power, but to no avail. Tip.

[andyscotland]

Finally starting to see more noise about generation-side options to reduce the cost. Cornwall Insight have calculated that even just getting older renewables/nuclear generators onto newer Contract for Difference arrangements could save us all £44.4bn this winter as a direct reduction from bills with no tax->subsidy mechanism required.

 

They reckon that could be sweetened by extending the term so generators would be locking in a guaranteed return to investors at the upper end of original projections but beyond the point that original deal was due to expire. Seems like a win-win to me...

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2022/aug/30/wanted-a-new-energy-contract-for-renewables-and-nuclear-projects

[AliG]

If the normal wholesale price of electricity is £50 per megawatt hour (5p/kWh) then what this plan suggests is saving 27p per kWh for say two years by paying an extra 11p for the subsequent 23 years (assuming) a 25 year contract. This is a terrrible idea that would make electricity expensive indefinitely. Two years ago people were forecasting electricity prices falling to £20 per megawatt hour as the amount of renewables increase. This would look in a price of £160 admittedly only for some generating capacity. 
 

Assuming current inflated prices last for two years, it would save £176bn over two years but cost £825bn over the next 23 years. I cannot reiterate what an awful awful idea this would be. We’d be locking in the impact of the last two month’s price rises for 25 years.

 

To be clear, changing the contracts is not a crazy idea but the suggested prices are. This was almost certainly drawn up by the asset owners who

would make a killing.

[andyscotland]

 

4 hours ago, AliG said:

by paying an extra 11p for the subsequent 23 years (assuming) a 25 year contract. 

 

That's a fair point, but I'm not sure if the new contracts would necessarily have to be 25 years.

 

The Guardian writer says:

 

In effect, the generators would get more certainty (and still a very nice price) over revenues in two or three years’ time in exchange for selling at sub-market lower prices today. 

 

The actual Cornwall Insight piece he links to is silent on how long the new contract might be, they just say:

 

to incentivise participation, the contract terms could extend project support beyond that envisaged by schemes that these new CFDs would replace (like the renewables obligation)

 

My assumption was that the proposal was for much less than 25 year contracts.

 

You're absolutely right that the longer they are the more they will cost overall.

 

Equally the further we get into the future these legacy projects will become a progressively smaller share of UK generation capacity - and if we stick with the merit order system of picking the cheapest generators first then presumably they will become a smaller share of total energy produced as newer, cheaper, projects come on stream. So I'm not sure that the long-term cost is quite as bad as you envisage?