No deal Brexit impact

[Bitpipe]

1 hour ago, JSHarris said:

My concern is that the majority of people will make decisions on important things, based on fake stories that have been reported by the media. 

 

For decades we've had increasingly poor, even outright untrue, stories about the EU.  Most can probably recall some of the funniest  fake stories, like the EU dictating that cucumbers or bananas had to be straight, or that UK passports had to be red (these were all made-up stories by the media, UK passports could have been rainbow coloured with a flowery border as far as the EU is concerned).  Like wise we've recently had a flurry of media stories along the lines of "this disaster will happen if we leave the EU with no deal".  The majority of this sort of reporting is, as POTUS might say, "fake news" (it's about the only thing he's ever said that I largely agree with).

 

Sometimes there are half-hearted attempts to try and  set the record straight on stories that have been reported.  Radio 4 has a short programme that sets out to fact check stories, More or Less ( https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006qshd ), but I doubt it has a significant impact on the way most people interpret media news reporting.

 

This short snippet from More or Less highlights one aspect of Brexit reporting: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p04fq3sp

 

 

 

The problem is that news is not a simple presentation of agreed facts  (with some editorial overview of what's relevant, and maybe some opinion or interpretation)  but a commercially driven presentation of content, in competition with other news providers. The 'story' is what gets attention, the underlying facts less so.

 

It's always been like this but is now amplified by the huge increase in channels, including social media, you tube etc.

 

People will always gravitate to the version of the facts that fits and reinforces their world view.

 

 

[Bitpipe]

I normally use snopes.com or fullfact.org to get some semblance of unbiased  claims and sometimes to correct my own assumptions.

[Jeremy Harris]

32 minutes ago, scottishjohn said:

first thing is that they probably have got the solar rating wrong 

think it should be MW not KW--but even then  would still need a serious battery storage to smooth things out

I know that 30 acres would give about 10mw where we are and that is smallest size really anyone is interested in for a solar farm 

 

Doesn't look like it from the photo - looks to be around 5 times the size of our in-roof installation:

 

[Temp]

I think its very difficult to predict every consequence of Brexit. However I think its clear that  the advantages will take a longer to kick in than the disadvantages. 

 

The UK government sets import tarifs under WTO rules and has already published a list for post Brexit,

 

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/check-temporary-rates-of-customs-duty-on-imports-after-eu-exit

 

Many of these are zero. So I'm not expecting massive price increases due to UK tariff changes. The £ has already fallen and some of the fall maybe because people are now assuming it will be no deal - so it may or may not fall further, hard to tell. 

 

If you buy something from the EU that has to be specially delivered (eg a pallet not a posted parcel) the main change as I understand it will be to VAT. Currently if you buy from say Belgium you pay Belgian VAT(BTW) you don't pay UK VAT on arrival here. After Brexit that changes. The supplier should not charge Belgian VAT and you will have to pay UK VAT on arrival. You might want to ask for quotes "Delivered, duty and UK VAT paid" or be prepared for a call demanding VAT and a handling fee.

 

Belgian companies sending stuff by post (eg parcels) have to register with HMRC and charge and process UK VAT. I bet some small companies only export to EU countries so will no longer ship to the UK. Others may want to but not be ready to process UK VAT.

 

I'm pretty sure that if you pay Belgian VAT after Brexit it will no longer be reclaimable under the self build reclaim scheme. Any UK VAT you pay on arrival at a port should be reclaimable.

[Temp]

Regarding disruption... The recent leaked government report talks about cross channel traffic taking many month to recover to between 50 and 70% of current levels. That's a massive reduction. We get huge queues even if a few trains or ferries have to be cancelled let alone 50%. It seems virtually certain that some traffic will have to be prioritised. I've no idea where building materials will come on the list but there are bound to be temporary shortages of some things perhaps for a year?

 

Gove claimed the report was out of date. It was only three weeks old. I guess he had been watching Yes Minister.

[Bozza]

Don’t panic & don’t worry,  Everything will be ok.  Don’t fall prey to Project Fear.  Somethings will be cheaper, some more expensive, It’ll all balance out.  Just a couple of generations ago our relatives really had something to worry about.  The next generation will be asking what Brexit was all about.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[andyscotland]

8 hours ago, Temp said:

I'm pretty sure that if you pay Belgian VAT after Brexit it will no longer be reclaimable under the self build reclaim scheme. Any UK VAT you pay on arrival at a port should be reclaimable.

After Brexit you shouldn't be charged Belgian VAT (unless we do a deal that keeps the status quo, in which case you won't pay UK VAT).

 

EU suppliers only charge local VAT on goods going to another EU country. Goods leaving the EU (e.g. coming to Britain) are zero rated at point of supply and only taxed at point of arrival.

[Jeremy Harris]

Suppliers outside the EU can also choose to pre-pay UK VAT and include it in their price if they wish, to eliminate delays and VAT collection at the UK customer end.  We recently saw this working first hand, when buying some stuff from the Channel Islands (which are outside the EU).  It arrived quickly, with a label on the package stating that UK VAT had been pre-paid.

[Ferdinand]

On 22/08/2019 at 17:58, AnonymousBosch said:

 

Evidence please.

The BBC and Guardian can be (and regularly are) held to account for what they publish.

 

I'm not dealing with the "thick northern racist" thing, through I think that is perhaps an underlying cultural perception for some at the BBC - see for example the 'personal' twitter feeds of some presenters and staff.

 

The Guardian has no external regulator, and would need a team of dozens just to keep track on the pratfalls imo. It has cost them their reputation.

 

Now, on the BBC being held to account - imo they are tenacious in refusing to correct when challenged, and get a large number of things wrong. For example, you remember this graph from the Euro Election months ago, on the BBC - where they got a 'majority for remain'  by pretending that the Tories were not pro-Brexit. From this page (now removed):

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48403131

 

 

To hold them to account for this took three rounds of complaints, and a threat to go to OFCOM, before they switched from dead-bat tactics to admitting an editorial "misjudgement". And this for what they finally claim is a minor mistake.

 

 

The history is here:

 

 

There was another one iirc last week where the BBC extensively reported on "the need to stop eating beef" as a prioirity to stop climate change, entirely out of context of the actual international report which also included many other things as equally, or more, significant. No time to round that up now.

 

This concerns me as they are the UK's media monopolist, with around a 40% share. They are just not very good at news istm, and refuse to be held properly to account short of extreme efforts. Not good enough for a tax funded setup.

 

Ferdinand

Edited August 24, 2019 by Ferdinand

[Ed Davies]

Anyway, I thought this was the world's first actually solar powered train: https://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/infrastructure/a14506568/worlds-first-solar-train-running-in-australia/

[scottishjohn]

19 hours ago, JSHarris said:

 

Doesn't look like it from the photo - looks to be around 5 times the size of our in-roof installation:

 

definitily not  30 acrs -not even one --so yes it will be kw and as much as a chocolate fireguard to run a railway --unless its a model one  LOL

[scottishjohn]

3 hours ago, andyscotland said:

After Brexit you shouldn't be charged Belgian VAT (unless we do a deal that keeps the status quo, in which case you won't pay UK VAT).

 

EU suppliers only charge local VAT on goods going to another EU country. Goods leaving the EU (e.g. coming to Britain) are zero rated at point of supply and only taxed at point of arrival.

oh yes you will  same as anything you buy from the states vat +sometimes import duty + customs charge --if its small and can be posted then if sent to private address you might get round it ,but certainly here anything that comes to a biz will  be stopped and looked at by customs  .vat is a uk sales tax and it will be charged at port of entry 

[andyscotland]

29 minutes ago, scottishjohn said:

oh yes you will  same as anything you buy from the states vat +sometimes import duty + customs charge --if its small and can be posted then if sent to private address you might get round it ,but certainly here anything that comes to a biz will  be stopped and looked at by customs  .vat is a uk sales tax and it will be charged at port of entry 

 

Sorry if I was unclear, that's what I'm saying. At the moment from EU small suppliers to consumers charge local VAT in their own country and then there's no UK VAT (and self builders can claim back the foreign VAT).

 

After Brexit, EU suppliers will not charge VAT at their end. But there will be UK VAT at the port. Which again self-build can reclaim.

 

The situation if your order/delivery/reclaim falls either side of Brexit may be trickier. More detail and references in my post here.

 

[Temp]

5 hours ago, andyscotland said:

After Brexit you shouldn't be charged Belgian VAT (unless we do a deal that keeps the status quo, in which case you won't pay UK VAT).

 

 

That's right but I wonder how many EU companies export building materials outside the EU?

 

One day I will try telling the girl in BnQ that I'm American buying paint to take home so she must deduct VAT. 

[Jeremy Harris]

19 minutes ago, Temp said:

 

That's right but I wonder how many EU companies export building materials outside the EU?

 

One day I will try telling the girl in BnQ that I'm American buying paint to take home so she must deduct VAT. 

 

 

A great deal of the stuff sold in B&Q is imported from outwith the EU.  Much of it seems to come from China and the Far East.

 

Interesting to see which countries we import from, in order:

 

	Value	Year
Germany	$91.57B	2018
China	$63.38B	2018
United States	$63.25B	2018
Netherlands	$55.19B	2018
France	$37.68B	2018
Belgium	$34.65B	2018
Italy	$26.55B	2018
Norway	$25.23B	2018
Spain	$21.07B	2018
Ireland	$18.78B	2018
Poland	$14.39B	2018
Canada	$13.66B	2018
Japan	$12.91B	2018
Turkey	$11.54B	2018
India	$9.67B	2018
Russia	$9.44B	2018
Sweden	$9.40B	2018
Denmark	$8.91B	2018
South Africa	$8.05B	2018
Czech Republic	$7.84B	2018
Switzerland	$7.41B	2018
Vietnam	$5.93B	2018
South Korea	$5.19B	2018
Austria	$5.15B	2018

[SteamyTea]

Since 1985 the EU and China have had a deal.

EU-China Trade and Cooperation Agreement. 

This has been upgraded to the

European Union Association Agreement and since 2007 is still being worked on as things change.

Who knows how, or where, the UK will fit into this if we have a no deal exit (I don't think we will).

 

[andyscotland]

27 minutes ago, Temp said:

One day I will try telling the girl in BnQ that I'm American buying paint to take home so she must deduct VAT. 

 

That's not how VAT works tho. B&Q or their upstream supplier will have paid UK VAT on the American paint when it arrived in the UK. From that point you are (for VAT purposes) buying UK paint. B&Q charge you UK vat as usual. They then reclaim the VAT they paid, and hand over the VAT they charged.

 

The government ends up with the tax on the difference between the price when it first arrived in the UK and the price you eventually paid. Unless you do a self-build reclaim in which case the government ends up with nothing.

 

All imported goods are charged VAT at the moment, almost always UK VAT. The only real exception is that EU companies exporting a small amount of goods to consumers also in the EU are allowed to charge VAT in their own country instead of registering for and charging VAT in the country it's going to.

[K78]

2 hours ago, JSHarris said:

 

 

A great deal of the stuff sold in B&Q is imported from outwith the EU.  Much of it seems to come from China and the Far East.

 

Interesting to see which countries we import from, in order:

 

	Value	Year
Germany	$91.57B	2018
China	$63.38B	2018
United States	$63.25B	2018
Netherlands	$55.19B	2018
France	$37.68B	2018
Belgium	$34.65B	2018
Italy	$26.55B	2018
Norway	$25.23B	2018
Spain	$21.07B	2018
Ireland	$18.78B	2018
Poland	$14.39B	2018
Canada	$13.66B	2018
Japan	$12.91B	2018
Turkey	$11.54B	2018
India	$9.67B	2018
Russia	$9.44B	2018
Sweden	$9.40B	2018
Denmark	$8.91B	2018
South Africa	$8.05B	2018
Czech Republic	$7.84B	2018
Switzerland	$7.41B	2018
Vietnam	$5.93B	2018
South Korea	$5.19B	2018
Austria	$5.15B	2018

 

That is why Herr Merkel won’t allow a no deal brexit. 

 

Go to Germany and see how many uk products are on sale. If you want PG teabags you have to buy them off amazon. 

[Ferdinand]

49 minutes ago, K78 said:

Go to Germany and see how many uk products are on sale. If you want PG teabags you have to buy them off amazon. 

 

Is that not a game that anyone can play with any country? Though I would probably say that the UK is perhaps very eclectic in diet, even by Western European standards, if we manage to avoid the attentions of some of our aspirational militant beef banners.

 

For Germany perhaps starting with the real brick-like black bread, or some of the more distinctive offal dishes, or the Germoline Pink Herring Salad. Horse, for example, is delicious and still I think common in France but unpopular here - and that is mainly a matter of fashion / prejudice. 

 

Put a hunk of horse in the fridge in a student house, especially say a named variety such as Dartmoor Pony, and it may have interesting results.

 

(Apparently Asian supermarkets in Gernmany are the place for teabags).

 

Ferdinand

 

Edited August 24, 2019 by Ferdinand

[SteamyTea]

Is it really about teabags and horse meat though.

Most of our trade is finacial and other services.

Many people think that these are not real goods, but they generate income, so are.

We do, as a nation, fixiated with making things, eventhough we don't manufacture that much in the UK.

Last year, Germany made 6.3 million cars, we made 1.52 million.

About a quarter.

We like to think that we are world leaders in pharmaceutricals, well in 2017 the UK employed 73,000 people, Germany, in 2015 employed 114,000.  Even France employed more people at 92,000

The EU employed 723,000 in total.

Finacial services in the UK employs 1.2 million people.

It is in a totally different league.

Edited August 24, 2019 by SteamyTea

[K78]

1 hour ago, Ferdinand said:

 

Is that not a game that anyone can play with any country? Though I would probably say that the UK is perhaps very eclectic in diet, even by Western European standards, if we manage to avoid the attentions of some of our aspirational militant beef banners.

 

For Germany perhaps starting with the real brick-like black bread, or some of the more distinctive offal dishes, or the Germoline Pink Herring Salad. Horse, for example, is delicious and still I think common in France but unpopular here - and that is mainly a matter of fashion / prejudice. 

 

Put a hunk of horse in the fridge in a student house, especially say a named variety such as Dartmoor Pony, and it may have interesting results.

 

(Apparently Asian supermarkets in Gernmany are the place for teabags).

 

Ferdinand

 

 

My point was that we have Lidl, Aldi and numerous German food products for sale. Germans don’t really buy anything other than German produce.

 

It’s rare to see a car that isn’t German over there. 

 

Fair play to them, it’s a example we should try to follow. We don’t really produce anything anymore. Everything is imported. 

 

That is why the trade deficit is huge. I don’t think the Eu can afford a no deal brexit. It’s a lot more than £39 billion they will be losing. 

[K78]

51 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

Is it really about teabags and horse meat though.

Most of our trade is finacial and other services.

Many people think that these are not real goods, but they generate income, so are.

We do, as a nation, fixiated with making things, eventhough we don't manufacture that much in the UK.

Last year, Germany made 6.3 million cars, we made 1.52 million.

About a quarter.

We like to think that we are world leaders in pharmaceutricals, well in 2017 the UK employed 73,000 people, Germany, in 2015 employed 114,000.  Even France employed more people at 92,000

The EU employed 723,000 in total.

Finacial services in the UK employs 1.2 million people.

It is in a totally different league.

 

Financial services currently keep this country afloat. All of our money is made in the SE.

 

We need to reestablish our car industry and like Boris said grow in pharmaceuticals and science.

[redtop]

i agree entirely about needing to re-balance and improve manufacturing.  But for decades 'engineering' as a trade has been under played in the UK.  Being a chartered engineer in germany means a lot; far less respected here for some reason. I suspect the germans respect building, engineering and manufacturing right from school, collage, university through to employment far more than we do.  And despite the car debacle i still have the perception that german engineering is better than UK (or any other country).  I think this is one of the biggest mistakes we have made in the UK; not investing enough for decades in world class engineering and relying far too much on the service / financial sectors.

[ToughButterCup]

1 hour ago, K78 said:

[...]

My point was that we have Lidl, Aldi and numerous German food products for sale. Germans don’t really buy anything other than German produce.

[...]

 

Really? I mean really?

I'm just a bit tired of asking you to evidence sweeping generalisations.

[Temp]

Nobody sets up a car plant to produce cars for just one country. Even Dyson understands it makes sense to manufacture close to your biggest market.