Why we need "Net zero"

[Beelbeebub]

Posted this in the off topic forum but am also posting here.... 

 

 

 

To cut along story short I've not included links but can provide if anyone is interested. 

 

The UK urgently needs to reduce of consumption of fossil fuels - and it has absolutely nothing to do with the climate. 

 

 

 

The UK is highly dependant of fossil fuels for 2 areas:

 

 

 

 - Transport (petrol & diesel) 

 

 - Domestic heating (mainly gas) 

 

 

 

For the above uses we currently import 50% of what we use. This leaves us vulnerable to price shifts in the global market and outright coersion should someone sanction/embargo/blockade our supplies and the majority of the suppliers of those vital resources are not friendly states and have to travel via long sea routes. 

 

By 2035 - just 10 years away - we are predicted to need to import 75% of oil and gas (if demand stays the same). 

 

At this point someone usually says

 

"ah! That is why we must drop this net zero nonsense and drill for oil and gas to become self sufficient!" 

 

 

 

The problem with this argument is that figure of 75% imports is from the oil and gas industry's most optimistic projections. It assumes that:

 

 

 

 - we are able to extract the maximum predicted amount out of our existing fields

 

 - we are able to extract the maximum predicted amount out of all the fields awaiting licences

 

 - we are able to extract the maximum predicted amount out of all the fields we know about

 

 - we are able to extract the maximum predicted amount out of some fields we haven't yet discovered

 

 

 

In short this is like predicting our future income assuming we get promoted, get a bonus, a distant uncle leaves us his fortune and we win the lottery.

 

 

 

If we use the more sober assessment then in 10 years time we will need to import 90% of our consumption (assuming it stays the same).

 

 

 

In short UK oil and gas production will fall every year even in the most optimistic predictions. 

 

 

 

In order to avoid this major vulnerability to our economy and sovereignty we need to reduce our demand for fossil fuels. 

 

 

 

1) Reducing our demand for gas heating in houses by insulation and moving away from gas boilers would reduce our gas demand - yes, even if we generate the extra elecreicty needed by burning gas. 

 

 

 

2) Reducing our demand for oil by (amongst other things) reducing the number of fossil fuel vehicles

 

 

 

To support the above we need to increace our electrical generation and distribution capability by building new wind farms, solar farms, rooftop solar, transmission lines etc

 

 

 

In short all of the "Net zero" things that usually sit in the "green" forum and regularly get trashed by people saying "ah all this green nomsense! Just woke crap a making us poorer! Bloody Greta etc etc" 

 

 

 

But really it should sit in the national security and economic forum. 

[Onoff]

32 minutes ago, Beelbeebub said:

In order to avoid this major vulnerability to our economy and sovereignty we need to reduce our demand for fossil fuels. 

 

 

PMSL! 🤣

 

Who makes all the renewable kit? PV panels, inverters, batteries? We'll still need all that imported and be reliant / vulnerable to outside forces pulling the plug. 

 

 

[JohnMo]

14 minutes ago, Onoff said:

 

PMSL! 🤣

 

Who makes all the renewable kit? PV panels, inverters, batteries? We'll still need all that imported and be reliant / vulnerable to outside forces pulling the plug. 

 

 

China? So we are ok, aren't we!

 

Was in a Scottish ship yard, a year or two ago, full of wind turbines for offshore, all had been shipped from China 

[Onoff]

9 minutes ago, JohnMo said:

China? So we are ok, aren't we!

 

Was in a Scottish ship yard, a year or two ago, full of wind turbines for offshore, all had been shipped from China 

 

I've been working closely with a major infrastructure supplier. Ceased trading as they'd bet on the lower Thames crossing, HS2 phase 2 etc. Bought stock etc. More than bet on I think, letters of intent etc. All their bespoke manufacturing kit is going abroad. No doubt when our shelved projects kick off again the stuff will be made overseas. 

 

With a capital F! 

[Beelbeebub]

32 minutes ago, Onoff said:

 

PMSL! 🤣

 

Who makes all the renewable kit? PV panels, inverters, batteries? We'll still need all that imported and be reliant / vulnerable to outside forces pulling the plug. 

 

 

The UK holds around 90 days of oil and gas reserves. 

 

If we stopped receiving supplies tomorrow, we would run out in 3 to 6 months, maybe 9 if we rationed and had a mild winter. 

 

That's not enough time to do anything significant. 

 

If China stopped shipping solar panels, wind turbines, batteries etc tomorrow - our existing solar panels and inverters would keep producing happily for a decade or two before we needed to replace them. Plenty of time for the issue to be resolved or alternative suppliers be spun up. 

 

There is an issue about online networked systems being dependent on remote severs etc (IIRC a major battery brand ceases to function of disconnected from the Internet for more than 90 days) but that is merely an issue about regulation ie allowing products to be sold with that "feature". 

 

[SteamyTea]

33 minutes ago, Onoff said:

Who makes all the renewable kit? PV panels, inverters, batteries?

Some of that kit will last 20 years.

in 2022, the UK used 1,200,000 barrels of oil a day.

So we have to get a new barrel every 14 seconds.

A barrel of oil is currently a similar price to 400W PV module, that would produce about 500 kWh/year down where I am (I am quite happy to cover Cornwall in PV).  A barrel of oil has about 1700 kWh of energy in it, but we cannot extract much more than about 70% of that.

So in just over 2 years, a PV module would produce about the same raw energy as a barrel of oil.  Then about 18 years for nothing.

 

[Beelbeebub]

23 minutes ago, JohnMo said:

China? So we are ok, aren't we!

 

Was in a Scottish ship yard, a year or two ago, full of wind turbines for offshore, all had been shipped from China 

One of the issues is that China is going all in on renewables, they are installing more than everyone else put together so they have huge economies of scale. 

On the other hand wind turbines are big and hard to ship and we (and Europe) have significant manufacturing bases. 

 

We don't have to buy from china - we can and do make all of the kit (the exception being the battery cells which the Chinese do have a major lock on the production facilities. But new battery chemistries are emerging that China doesn't have a lock on and Europe could build a lead on. 

 

Note that China only has the lead in these areas because the UK and Europe have dragged their feet - witness cars, thr legacy automakers pissed around with various campaigns against EVs rather than knuckling down and transitioning. 

 

Now Korea and China have stolen a march on them. 

[Mike]

51 minutes ago, Onoff said:

Who makes all the renewable kit?

Last time I checked Denmark was still the World's 2nd largest manufacturer of wind turbines - it was they who developed the technology in the '80s. Of course the UK could have done the same, but why do that when the North Sea was full of oil and gas?

 

Though, in view the current headlines, maybe Denmark should have invested in nuclear weapons instead...

 

Edited 1 hour ago by Mike

[Beelbeebub]

4 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

Some of that kit will last 20 years.

in 2022, the UK used 1,200,000 barrels of oil a day.

So we have to get a new barrel every 14 seconds.

A barrel of oil is currently a similar price to 400W PV module, that would produce about 500 kWh/year down where I am (I am quite happy to cover Cornwall in PV).  A barrel of oil has about 1700 kWh of energy in it, but we cannot extract much more than about 70% of that.

So in just over 2 years, a PV module would produce about the same raw energy as a barrel of oil.  Then about 18 years for nothing.

 

I've got 24 panels in not a great location, but even so they are producing an average of about 4kwh over December - most of an average house demand (sadly not my house) 

 

With the battery it was about 10k all in. 

 

If built into a new build could be less. Say 7k.

 

For an extra 7k upfront a new build house could have zero elec bills for thr next 2 decades and never habe a power cut. 

[Beelbeebub]

1 minute ago, Mike said:

Last time I checked Denmark was still the World's 2nd largest manufacturer of wind turbines - it was they who developed the technology in the '80s. Of course the UK could have done the same, but why do that when the North Sea was full of oil and gas?

 

Though, in view the current headlines, maybe Denmark should have invested in nuclear weapons instead...

 

TBF the UK has considerable expertise in designing, building and maintaining large structures offshore in hostile environments.

 

Aberdeen could continue booming by switching to the next energy source rather than trying to sweat every last penny from a declining reserve. 

[Mike]

12 minutes ago, Beelbeebub said:

The UK holds around 90 days of ...gas reserves.

It used to, but most of that was closed down.

 

It now holds 12 days maximum.

 

https://www.dw.com/en/why-uk-gas-storage-levels-are-concerningly-low/a-71281361

[SteamyTea]

1 minute ago, Mike said:

Last time I checked Denmark was still the World's 2nd largest manufacturer of wind turbines - it was they who developed the technology in the '80s. Of course the UK could have done the same, but why do that when the North Sea was full of oil and gas?

I did some work for a UK turbine manufacturer in the early 1990s.  I think then we were the biggest global manufacturer, though they used the term 'leading' which means very little.

They still make turbine parts there, Vesta employ a lot of people.

 

This is currently in Mount's Bay, but think it is just parked up.

 

[Beelbeebub]

7 minutes ago, Mike said:

It used to, but most of that was closed down.

 

It now holds 12 days maximum.

 

https://www.dw.com/en/why-uk-gas-storage-levels-are-concerningly-low/a-71281361

You may be right, I was referring to oil supply and this 

 

https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-questions/detail/2024-07-24/1543/

 

Realistically we would buy gas from Europe but as 2022 showed it puts us at the mercy of world events. 

 

We will almost certainly require gas generation, probaly more than now, to provide backup and supply for winter, so we certainly need to increace our storage. But if the majority of our hearing uses gas boilers, we need gas. Nothing else will do. 

 

If it is electric we can heat out homes with wind, nuclear, solar, coal even. 

[Nickfromwales]

Taken from the ‘other’ thread, for completeness. 
 

 

Beelbeebub

Posted 1 hour ago · IP 

This sort of should be in the "green building" section - except my point is that it shouldn't be a "green" issue. 

 

To cut along story short I've not included links but can provide if anyone is interested. 

 

The UK urgently needs to reduce of consumption of fossil fuels - and it has absolutely nothing to do with the climate. 

 

The UK is highly dependant of fossil fuels for 2 areas:

 

 - Transport (petrol & diesel) 

 - Domestic heating (mainly gas) 

 

For the above uses we currently import 50% of what we use.  This leaves us vulnerable to price shifts in the global market and outright coersion should someone sanction/embargo/blockade our supplies and the majority of the suppliers of those vital resources are not friendly states and have to travel via long sea routes. 

 

By 2035 - just 10 years away - we are predicted to need to import 75% of oil and gas (if demand stays the same). 

 

At this point someone usually says

 

"ah! That is why we must drop this net zero nonsense and drill for oil and gas to become self sufficient!" 

 

The problem with this argument is that figure of 75% imports is from the oil and gas industry's most optimistic projections. It assumes that:

 

 - we are able to extract the maximum predicted amount out of our existing fields

 - we are able to extract the maximum predicted amount out of all the fields awaiting licences

 - we are able to extract the maximum predicted amount out of all the fields we know about

 - we are able to extract the maximum predicted amount out of some fields we haven't yet discovered

 

In short this is like predicting our future income assuming we get promoted, get a bonus, a distant uncle leaves us his fortune and we win the lottery.

 

If we use the more sober assessment then in 10 years time we will need to import 90% of our consumption (assuming it stays the same).

 

In short UK oil and gas production will fall every year even in the most optimistic predictions. 

 

In order to avoid this major vulnerability to our economy and sovereignty we need to reduce our demand for fossil fuels. 

 

1) Reducing our demand for gas heating in houses by insulation and moving away from gas boilers would reduce our gas demand - yes, even if we generate the extra elecreicty needed by burning gas. 

 

2) Reducing our demand for oil by (amongst other things) reducing the number of fossil fuel vehicles

 

To support the above we need to increace our electrical generation and distribution capability by building new wind farms, solar farms, rooftop solar, transmission lines etc

 

In short all of the "Net zero" things that usually sit in the "green" forum and regularly get trashed by people saying "ah all this green nomsense! Just woke crap a making us poorer! Bloody Greta etc etc" 

 

But really it should sit in the national security and economic forum. 

 

 

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MikeSharp01

Posted 1 hour ago · IP 

I guess that has always been part of the thinking although its not very joined up is it, we are not building the skills to make this transition, not educating the public so they understand why they should get behind the programme and much of the 'gear' is imported. 

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JohnMo

Posted 51 minutes ago · IP 

As with most things in this country everything is a political football. Not even sure the decision makers have a clue about most things, they just do what the whips tell them to do.

 

Add to this with, how much money comes from industry with vested interest, in not making sensible decisions easy or even correct.

 

We just need a new political structure, nothing simple 

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ProDave

Posted 47 minutes ago · IP 

I have said before, if Energy security was the stated reason for more renewable energy (because we are coming to the end of our own fossil fuel reserves) then I am sure more people would agree with it.

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SteamyTea

Posted 36 minutes ago · IP 

I was pondering how many people are employed in the oil and gas industry in  the UK.

 

Found this

https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CDP-2020-0036/CDP-2020-0036.pdf

(bit old now)

 

This is the 1.1 summary.

 

Summary: UK Offshore Oil and Gas
Industry
• The UK oil and gas industry (both onshore and offshore)
employed 31,000 people directly and a further 121,000 in
relevant supply chains in 2019, according to estimates
from the industry body Oil and Gas UK. Overall,
employment in the industry has fallen by 35% since
2013.2
• In 2016/17, government revenues from oil and gas
production were £1.2 billion. This was a slight increase on
previous years, but overall, tax revenue from oil and gas
has declined sharply over the past decade.3
• Drilling has generally been in decline. In 2018, a total of
102 wells were drilled. Other than an increase in
development wells from 2017, the number of exploration
and appraisal wells commenced in 2018 fell to 8 of each;
for development this was the lowest number of new wells
since 1965.
• Capital investment has also been falling, with investment
of £5 billion in 2018, compared to £16.3 billion in 2014.
The industry expects investment to stabilise in 2019 at
around £5-5.5 billion per year.
• The cost of decommissioning was increasing to £1.7
billion in 2018, and is expected to level out and cost £1.5
billion per year to 2027

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• 1 min Nickfromwales locked this topic

 

Nickfromwales

Posted just now · IP 

@Beelbeebub, please refrain from starting two identical threads in two different forums!

 

Its like watching a game of chuffing tennis. 
 

Members who wish to reply, please continue to do so in the other thread found here: 

 

 

 

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[SteamyTea]

13 minutes ago, Beelbeebub said:

With the battery it was about 10k all in. 

 

If built into a new build could be less. Say 7k.

Brent Crude is £48/barrel ($64).  About 50% of the energy in a barrel can be converted to heating fuel, so 850 kWh.

£10k will buy 208 barrels (today) or about 180,000 kWh.

 

[Mike]

4 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

They still make turbine parts there, Vesta employ a lot of people.

Which is good - but they're owned by Vestas Wind Systems A/S - who are Danish.

[SteamyTea]

7 minutes ago, Mike said:

Which is good - but they're owned by Vestas Wind Systems A/S - who are Danish.

Yes, but we are a global trading nation, I have no problem with overseas companies investing in the UK.

Quick look at Companies House and Vesta Offshore Wind Blades UK is a registered company with a turn over of £85.55m.

Here

Wish they were in Penzance.

 

Edited 1 hour ago by SteamyTea

[Beelbeebub]

The UK isn't big enough to vertically integrate everything - almost no nation on earth is except perhaps China (now) and India (eventually). Certainly no European nation. 

 

But thr build out phase of renewables is less important than the maintance of renewables. 

 

As has been pointed out - renewable infrastructure lasts a long time. It doesn't really.matter if Danish, American or Chinese companies build the turbine as long as you control it and can maintain it.

 

How many of us built our own houses? 

[Onoff]

Wonder what a drone / claymore combo would do to a solar farm? 🤔 Vulnerable, oh yes! 

[Mike]

1 hour ago, SteamyTea said:

we are a global trading nation, I have no problem with overseas companies investing in the UK.

Quick look at Companies House and Vesta Offshore Wind Blades UK is a registered company with a turn over of £85.55m.

Nor me, and £86 million is certainly worthwhile.

Just a shame that their parent company isn't British too - their turnover was €17.3 billion (the 4th biggest company in Denmark).