Why we need "Net zero"

[Beelbeebub]

On 31/05/2026 at 09:38, LnP said:

Ms Savage didn't say that they've seen lower electricity contract prices, reduced spot price volatility, because of increased output from wind and battery generation during evening peaks. She said they've seen lower electricity contract prices, reduced spot price volatility, and increased output from wind and battery generation during evening peaks. I scanned the article you linked to and didn't see a claim that there's a causal link between the two issues.

This is clutching at straws a bit. In the actual report they call out that renewables have lowered the daytime price putting downward pressure on the cap and the quote was from the regulator itself so one would assume they are aware of the context.

 

But if we wear our steixlty logical hat - whilst we cannot say that a rise in renewables certainly lowers prices we can say that a rise in renewables does not invariably lead to a rise in prices. 

 

In fairness they do also say that the loss of revenue for thermal plants during the daylight hours means the costs have to be put into the price of thermal power when it is needed pushing that bit up.

 

They also note that a drop in the Lng prices in late 2025 helped lower wholesale costs, though that has now been reversed. 

 

They say that grid scale battery systems are starting to mitigate those fluctuations by providing a customer during daylight to recharge and providing cheaper than thermal power on the evenings further displacing thermal power. 

 

Bear in mind the displacement of thermal power during the day doesn't markedly increace the fixed (capital, depreciation etc) costs of thermal power it just concentrates them into a smaller output. So the overall cost of having a thermal plant on the grid is roughly the same regardless of it running or not, so it's not true to say the intermittency makes it more expensive (beyond some increace in maintance and fuel burns for start/stop running) overall. If it costs you £100m + fuel to keep a plant up and ready it is still cheaper to run it once and get low cost elec the rest of the time than to run it 365 days a year. 

 

On 31/05/2026 at 09:38, LnP said:

Australia's electricity is generated 100% from domestic sources - coal, natural gas, wind, solar.  64% from fossils. So it's no surprise that their domestic energy costs have not increased with the conflict in the Middle East.

Again, the report explicitly calls out the rise in the price of coal and gas on the international market as historical upward cost pressures and not the increace in renewable generation. 

 

Despite being a big exporter of coal and gas the thermal plants have to compete with international buyers so when coal jumps up the cost per Mwh from an Australian coal plant burning Australian coal also jumps up. 

 

On 31/05/2026 at 09:38, LnP said:

Btw, I strongly support decarbonisation. I just think we need to be a bit more clear eyed about how we get there.

There will be inevitable challanges and it will not be easy. But we need to get away from the narrative that there is a sensible choice between doing it and just staying as we are and lowering prices by drilling.