ToughButterCup Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 Now here's a post I never thought I'd write. What's the effect of the current war going to be on self-building in the UK? What's manufactured in The Ukraine but exported here? How will fluctuation in the money markets affect us? Fuel prices are on the rise: anyone like an evidence-based guess about how much? Will anything be cheaper because of the war? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ProDave Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 I see dark days ahead. Double digit inflation, but without the double digit interest rates we need so your savings stand a little bit of a chance keeping up. Energy crisis (as if we don't have one already) FOOD shortage. Yes seriously. Ukraine is a major food exporter. Nobody likes uncertainty, it would not surprise me if the housing market in the UK tanked now. (and we still haven't sold our old house yet) The move to green energy and CO2 reduction will take a back seat. ANY energy will do even if it is not green. From a personal point of view my main worries now are I don't think i am yet above the age for conscription if it all really goes bad, and my comfortable planned retirement soon is looking less comfortable and less certain. I am more worried now than at any point in the cold war. Sorry to sound a sombre tone, I don't see much to give me optimism. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottishjohn Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 (edited) this war is surely the sign to unblock planning applications for wind farms and tidal dams like the swansea bay project ,so we will not as reliant on gas sooner and accelerate towards a zero emissions we have to go there anyway - and yes prices will go up -- making me even more worried about my project costs and If will be able to afford to do it. anybody know an oligark who wants to fund my hpuse and can have it when I die .LOL I don,t see housing prices going up at all for a long time , maybe could make plots cheaper ? Edited February 26, 2022 by scottishjohn 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ProDave Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 5 minutes ago, scottishjohn said: this war is surely the sign to unblock planning applications for wind farms and tidal dams like the swansea bay project ,so we will not as reliant on gas sooner and accelerate towards a zero emissions AND to start drilling CAMBO. Yes we need to move away from fossil fuel, but to not drill our own and instead buy from "abroad" is not proving to be such a good idea is it? I note many of the mothballed drilling rigs that have been in storage in the Cromarty Firth for years have departed. Have they actually gone out to do some drilling? Nothing would give me more pleasure right now than if we (the whole of Europe) were able to say no we don't need Russian oil or gas any more. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottishjohn Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 (edited) supposedly plenty of gas in the e solway firth -but has not been developed cos it is ours -- morcamba bay gas field has been on line since 1985 and the solway is very close Edited February 26, 2022 by scottishjohn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceverge Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 13 minutes ago, ProDave said: FOOD shortage. Yes seriously. Ukraine is a major food exporter. 19% of world's grain exports. Don't forget the embargoes on Russia produce too. Before this the price of nitrogen fertilizer was already 3 times higher than last year. It supports about half of the world's food production. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nod Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 Real problem for me Ian Ive two Ukrainian brothers that do my taping Both are going back to fight Fiercely patriotic and get really upset when people refer to them as Russians Its a very bad situation Boris and Joe at the helm doesn’t inspire confidence Where is Donald 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epsilonGreedy Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 The news just in that France has intercepted a Russian cargo ship at sea under new powers moves this matter up many notches. We could be at a Cuban Missile type stand off within a week it this keeps escalating. The Russians could view this as state sponsored piracy which is awfully close to an act of war. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nod Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 Just heard that Italy have surrendered I ?? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToughButterCup Posted February 26, 2022 Author Share Posted February 26, 2022 @nod : Our foundations wiring team (4 of them) were Ukrainian ; my God they worked like - well Ukrainians. Frankly, they are just the sort of lads you need in a tight spot - fantastic work rate. And the Italian team are still having their siesta ...... ? @scottishjohn As to energy independence: is now the time to start thinking about wind? What price would electricity have to be to make domestic-level wind power worth while? Hold on, won't the price of batteries go up ........ arghhhh! @epsilonGreedy : in retaliation, please God the Russians don't stop a ship-load of plasterboard leaving St Petersburg for Hull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteamyTea Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 3 hours ago, ToughButterCup said: Will anything be cheaper because of the war? Life. 36 minutes ago, ToughButterCup said: As to energy independence: is now the time to start thinking about wind? What price would electricity have to be to make domestic-level wind power worth while? Wind and solar have been the cheapest new generation source for a few years now. Just a case of deploying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epsilonGreedy Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 57 minutes ago, ToughButterCup said: @epsilonGreedy : in retaliation, please God the Russians don't stop a ship-load of plasterboard leaving St Petersburg for Hull. I am watching the price of lead sheet. Could we temp @Jeremy Harrisback to the forum, he must have a blueprint for the construction of a nuclear bunker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeterW Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 Please read the post below carefully, and consider how you are posting and responding here. This is not an extension of political discussion from elsewhere. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToughButterCup Posted February 26, 2022 Author Share Posted February 26, 2022 I'm sure everyone will stick to the topic: how the war is likely to affect self builders...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnMo Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 Just notice diesel and petrol prices have gone up about 8p litre over the last week. Gas and electric prices are sure to go up, even more than they have. Things to do Insulation get it ordered and put in as much as possible. Add a deep basement to your build, install your own water supply, and pre wire for your own generator. "Anything be cheaper because of war" - unfortunately people's lives will be, for cheap political motivation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonner Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 Been tile shopping today, one retailer warned of imminent shortages and price rises. Gas prices hit the factories hard, also much of the clay for Italian tiles comes from Ukraine?! I thought the latter sounded like BS but it seems to be some truth in it. Old article ... https://blog.biokeram.com/how-to-replace-ukrainian-clay-in-decorative-tile-production With its vast reserves of high-quality clay, the Donetsk area in the east of Ukraine soon became the largest supplier of raw material for the European market. After the Russian aggression and occupation of Crimea in 2014, the export has choked, and prices are now five times higher than when the Ukrainian Clay entered the market. Now tile manufacturers turn to local variants for help. Unfortunately, it is hard to find decent replacements that can comply with the production standards of large tile production. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Onoff Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 @Construction Channel has a historic clay field on his family's land I believe... Essex Double Romans coming soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottishjohn Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 10 hours ago, ToughButterCup said: @scottishjohn As to energy independence: is now the time to start thinking about wind? What price would electricity have to be to make domestic-level wind power worth while? not a chance with current planning rules -even if it were feasable --thats why i say planning blockage for wind need be binned but that would also need alot of upgrades in the grid inplaces where the wind is my plan to have 30 acres of solar panels on the jetty plot was going fine and I had a company who would give me a 25 year deal on renting the ground --but after checking the grid transformers +power lines it was found it could not take it without upgrading -and no one wanted to pay for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joe90 Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 9 hours ago, scottishjohn said: and no one wanted to pay for it I think that is short sited by the gov, i would imagine your jetty to be perfect fir solar and a step towards the future!. A better use of money than £5K grants towards ASHP installs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Onoff Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 9 hours ago, scottishjohn said: not a chance with current planning rules -even if it were feasable --thats why i say planning blockage for wind need be binned but that would also need alot of upgrades in the grid inplaces where the wind is my plan to have 30 acres of solar panels on the jetty plot was going fine and I had a company who would give me a 25 year deal on renting the ground --but after checking the grid transformers +power lines it was found it could not take it without upgrading -and no one wanted to pay for it Down here they "developed" the Hoo Peninsula a few years ago by first upgrading the road network and considerably so. I presume at the same time upgrading the utilities, water, power etc. Only then did the housing estates come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToughButterCup Posted February 27, 2022 Author Share Posted February 27, 2022 2 hours ago, Onoff said: ... Only then did the housing estates come. Lancashire County Councillors tell me (informally) that '... infrastructure follows development ...' I asked for policy evidence of that statement. None: well, there's the A6 Development Area (The West of A6 Master Plan 2019). Infrastructure recently built before the the housing? None. Chickens come before eggs up here ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Onoff Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 2 hours ago, ToughButterCup said: Lancashire County Councillors tell me (informally) that '... infrastructure follows development ...' I asked for policy evidence of that statement. None: well, there's the A6 Development Area (The West of A6 Master Plan 2019). Infrastructure recently built before the the housing? None. Chickens come before eggs up here ... Hoo is a fair distance from me. Where I live in the valley over development is imo putting unnecessary strain on infrastructure & utilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DragsterDriver Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 Materials to go sky high. Timber is rising 5% and will go again now. buy what you can store safely now imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ProDave Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 9 hours ago, ToughButterCup said: Lancashire County Councillors tell me (informally) that '... infrastructure follows development ...' I asked for policy evidence of that statement. None: well, there's the A6 Development Area (The West of A6 Master Plan 2019). Infrastructure recently built before the the housing? None. Chickens come before eggs up here ... I spent the first 40 years of my life in Oxfordshire watching all the towns grow with new housing estates (but no self build plots) and watched the steadily increasing traffic on the same roads with no major new roads or rail and everything get slower and slower and more congested. Finally the penny dropped, it was NEVER going to improve. Cue time to move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteamyTea Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 8 minutes ago, ProDave said: I spent the first 40 years of my life in Oxfordshire watching all the towns grow with new housing estates (but no self build plots) and watched the steadily increasing traffic on the same roads with no major new roads or rail and everything get slower and slower and more congested. Finally the penny dropped, it was NEVER going to improve. Cue time to move. Odd that, in 1984 I moved to Buckinghamshire. I watched the roads around London become the M25. Things vastly improved in 1986 when it was completed. What used to be a 3 hour journey to Gatwick became an hour and a half. It is still an hour and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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