Where is the kWh price heading in 2022?

[AliG]

3 minutes ago, oldkettle said:

Sorry, not quite right again. Fracking is very flexible and given permission US could increase production a lot. So as soon as green delusions give way to the reality this is definitely solvable. 

https://phys.org/news/2022-03-fracking-cushion-oil-price.html

 

You are still talking 12 months plus. So better, but not going to help in the immediate future. This also explains why gas prices have gone up way less in the US. The real problem is Europe and it takes even longer to add transport capacity than production. You will hear a lot more calls for a Russian oil and gas ban from the US than Europe as they can be self sufficient.

 

With a few years we could pretty much wean ourselves off of Russian gas. The stock price of Vestas, the largest maker of wind turbines, went up 30% in two days last week The problem is the economic damage this could do over the next 12 months. Plans in place for zero carbon had us moving this direction over the next 10-20 years.

 

China is the wildcard in this. Much as they have sided with Russia in general, I am sure they see this as bad for business. Needless wars may not upset them, but they don't want an energy driven recession any more than anyone else.

 

[oldkettle]

6 minutes ago, AliG said:

The real problem is Europe and it takes even longer to add transport capacity than production. You will hear a lot more calls for a Russian oil and gas ban from the US than Europe as they can be self sufficient.

 

I agree. One of the correct points they make is they have no reason to buy Russian oil in the US. None at all. Every little helps.

Yes, we have a problem here (in Europe), we need to make changes now. Zero carbon plans should go where they belong - to hell - until the energy independence is achieved. Greens are Putin's best friends. 

[AliG]

I use almost all the electricity I generate.

 

So 3500kWh a year at around 30p on the upcoming fix/Octopus.

[AliG]

Gas price hit £8 at one point today. It has settled back to £6.

 

That would be over 20p/kWh!

 

 

[SteamyTea]

16 minutes ago, AliG said:

That would be over 20p/kWh!

Oil hit £94/b

So that will be 6p/kWh

Considering about half is turned into heating/transport fuel, that isn't too bad.

About 16p/kWh at my local Tesco.

Edited March 7, 2022 by SteamyTea

[Simplysimon]

On 05/03/2022 at 18:49, ProDave said:

I ask again, do we have any coal fired stations capable of being re started, or have they all been decommissioned beyond that point?

keep hunterston running? how many would be up for that?

[ProDave]

13 minutes ago, Simplysimon said:

keep hunterston running? how many would be up for that?

Most of the old nuclear stations were operated beyond their original design life until the inspections and defects could no longer be regarded as safe.  Hunterston is already at that point.  Or are you proposing we continue operating something no longer deemed to be safe?

 

The real failing is not starting the build program to replace them in time.  But before that it was closing down the UKAEA so we no longer have the ability to design and build our own and must buy foreign designed and built units.

[Simplysimon]

6 minutes ago, ProDave said:

Hunterston is already at that point.  Or are you proposing we continue operating something no longer deemed to be safe?

been that way for a while, would a while longer be that bad? puts lead hat and underpants on 🤣 and i live a lot closer to it  than you. hunterston could get me before putler

8 minutes ago, ProDave said:

The real failing is not starting the build program to replace them in time.  But before that it was closing down the UKAEA so we no longer have the ability to design and build our own and must buy foreign designed and built units.

not going to argue that

[SteamyTea]

I had the great pleasure of showing David Elliot around my university back in 2006.

He tells interesting stories about nuclear power decision making in government.

[SimonD]

11 hours ago, SteamyTea said:

nuclear power decision making in government

 

Sounds like a new management technique.

[SteamyTea]

24 minutes ago, SimonD said:

 

Sounds like a new management technique.

Yes, it take parts of randomness and chaos, drizzles them with new means of old words, then claims to be the answer.

[MikeSharp01]

Assume we get to 30p kWh. A 6kW array should generate say 6300kWh per year (calc based on data HERE) assuming you can use all of it, = £1800 saving per year. 6kW worth of solar panels = £3K (Midsummer wholesale Solar Edge today 08.03.2022) + Inverter (£835 - same source) + bits and self install £1k = £5K / £1800 = 2.7 years - not bad.

[CotswoldDoItUpper]

6 minutes ago, MikeSharp01 said:

Assume we get to 30p kWh. A 6kW array should generate say 6300kWh per year (calc based on data HERE) assuming you can use all of it, = £1800 saving per year. 6kW worth of solar panels = £3K (Midsummer wholesale Solar Edge today 08.03.2022) + Inverter (£835 - same source) + bits and self install £1k = £5K / £1800 = 2.7 years - not bad.

What about the hassle of upgrading the local network to take 6kW? Contacting the DNO etc? Better/easier to have 3.6kW (or whatever the limit is)?

Edited March 8, 2022 by CotswoldDoItUpper

[MikeSharp01]

1 minute ago, CotswoldDoItUpper said:

What about the hassle of upgrading the local network to take 6kW? Contacting the DNO etc? Better/easier to have 3.6kW (or whatever the limit is)?

Yes I assumed you would use all of it so no export, the payback goes up when you export as you won't get 30p for it going out onto the grid even though the same people will charge you 30p to take it from the grid, the whole export model is a busted flush - we need to either move to internal use or dynamic export where your system trades your output in real time but then we will see the eCommerce intermediaries moving into the market ie whole groups of PV owners will be banded together to strengthen their collective hand, if you control a few gW of output you should get a much bigger price - no export without appropriate compensation. In the mean time work to use all of it.

[SteamyTea]

3 minutes ago, CotswoldDoItUpper said:

What about the hassle of upgrading the local network to take 6kW

That is quite interesting.

I live in a row of 6 houses, all electric.

Assuming my neighbours all use the heating/DHW in a similar fashion to me i.e. E7. Then we can all easily be pulling an 8 kW load at night for a few hours. During the day this will drop to a couple of hundred watts, with spikes of a couple to three kW each house.

I would have thought there would be no need to upgrade where I am 

Trouble is, hard to get even 3 kW_p on the small roofs, so technically not a problem.

But it makes me wonder about some of the larger, newer developments on the North Cornish Coast that are off the gas grid.

 

[MikeSharp01]

6 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

I would have thought there would be no need to upgrade where I am 

They don't want a free for all they want control, they have learned nothing from our recent history around how disruptive TECH can be so the revert to type and its associated defender mentality.

[SteamyTea]

8 minutes ago, MikeSharp01 said:

They don't want a free for all they want control

Quite.

I am not sure if a higher than average local voltage is more if a problem than a lower voltage.

Something to ponder.

[TonyT]

Wouldn’t you want to fit as much PV as possible for example 5kW and let the inverter limit to the DNO max figure, pretty sure that’s what most people are doing these days rather than the original installations of 2010/2011 FIT where it was DNO max limit and that was that 

[JohnMo]

Have debated with myself, about installing around 10kW, run as DC, all off grid to make hot water only (heating and DHW,) and in the summer just switch it off, when it starts making too much hot water.  And then make do with the 3.1kW AC system already installed.

 

But not sure if the economics make sense though?

[SteamyTea]

44 minutes ago, JohnMo said:

But not sure if the economics make sense though?

All depends on your DHW usage.

Cut it down to 50 litres/person @50°C and probably not.

300 litres per person @80°C, then probably.

[SteamyTea]

Just been listening to You and Yours, it is about how energy prices are affecting you.

The first caller claimed that her car fuel bill had gone up from £30 to £60 for the same amount of fuel, and she actually does less mileage.

No idea where she is filling up, and where she got fuel at 80p/litre in the past.

Some people need to be given arithmetic lessons.

 

I also found it interesting that she lived in an old, leaky house, and both her, and her daughter had health problems, with her daughters caused by the cold house.

[JohnMo]

Obviously no intention or thought process about doing anything with the house, to either fix the issues or move elsewhere.

[Bitpipe]

On 05/03/2022 at 19:34, oldkettle said:

Zero carbon plans should go where they belong - to hell - until the energy independence is achieved. Greens are Putin's best friends. 

 

Surely the best way to reduce dependence on Russian (or other unfavourable regimes) oil and gas is to reduce the overall energy requirement, as well as invest in zero carbon alternatives?

 

The majority of UK houses are still hopelessly energy inefficient. I realise that I'm lucky to be in a self built passive house and as such have relatively low energy requirements for heating etc but we must improve the fabric of the nation.

 

I expect that one upside of the painful increase in utility prices will be more careful usage and thought on how to reduce domestic bills permanently.

[Pocster]

12 minutes ago, Bitpipe said:

I expect that one upside of the painful increase in utility prices will be more careful usage and thought on how to reduce domestic bills permanently.

Unless you are one of my tenants 🙁

[oldkettle]

16 minutes ago, Bitpipe said:

 

Surely the best way to reduce dependence on Russian (or other unfavourable regimes) oil and gas is to reduce the overall energy requirement, as well as invest in zero carbon alternatives?

 

The majority of UK houses are still hopelessly energy inefficient. I realise that I'm lucky to be in a self built passive house and as such have relatively low energy requirements for heating etc but we must improve the fabric of the nation.

 

I expect that one upside of the painful increase in utility prices will be more careful usage and thought on how to reduce domestic bills permanently.

 

Short term / medium term / long term. Long term - yes, sure, let's all have passive houses with great cheap storage and PV or whatever will be the latest tech in 30 years. Short term - we can't insulate 10mil properties to a high standard quickly and doing it badly seems to be a waste of resources. So solve the problem of energy dependency short term, then move on to the medium term tasks. Green energy is not a short or a medium term solution, this is my point.