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No deal Brexit impact

gc100

By gc100
in Costing & Estimating

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newhome
newhome

I’m not a mod either but it’s because the previous one turned into a pissing contest of opposing views, and shitloads of reported posts citing racist comments et al, which kept the mods continually bu

Nickfromwales
Nickfromwales

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Brickie
Brickie

Before this thread goes the way of the previous one,I’m going to make one prediction & leave it at that.        Spurs will be out of Europe before the UK is ;))

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Jeremy Harris Advanced Member

Jeremy Harris

Posted
Posted

One thing to watch is that the SMMT only report data from manufacturers that are members.  This creates a bit of an issue with Tesla, as they have refused to join the SMMT, so consequently their sales are classified by SMMT as "other", meaning they tend not to show in some of the statistics that SMMT publish.

  • 5 months later...
SteamyTea Advanced Member

SteamyTea

Posted
Posted
  On 11/09/2020 at 20:20, Temp said:

New deal with Japan signed. Expected to boost GDP by..... 0.07%. 

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Is that right.

I think we do around £280bn worth of trade with the EU, and this deal, which is just a re-jigger version of what we already have, is worth around £16bn.

To put that into perspective, it is about double the economy (GVA) of Cornwall, or about the same as the GVA of Buckinghamshire.

Ferdinand Advanced Member

Ferdinand

Posted
Posted (edited)
  On 11/09/2020 at 20:20, Temp said:

New deal with Japan signed. Expected to boost GDP by..... 0.07%. 

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I have little idea what that number actually means in practical terms - in relation to 15bn of extra trade every year.

 

Except that it is supposed to look small, perhaps by parties who are not happy that we are signing trade deals. Or media after easy headlines.

 

Edited by Ferdinand
  • Like 1
SteamyTea Advanced Member

SteamyTea

Posted
Posted (edited)
  On 12/09/2020 at 09:44, Ferdinand said:

I have little idea what that number actually means in practical terms

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I don't think it is actual 'extra' trade.  Just clarifying the taxation position for when our government takes us out of the existing trade deal.

There are benefits in having this deal, but they are not very great.  We would need 20 or so similar sized deals to get back on an even keel.

Trouble is that all but 5 (or more) of those deals will be with countries that have smaller economies than ours.

 

I have not bothered to look at the details, but a news report said that over 90% of items traded with Japan will be tariff free.  This says very little as it does not mention value.

Edited by SteamyTea
DamonHD Regular Member

DamonHD

Posted
Posted

It also isn't the tariffs (alone) that kill you unless the vast majority of your economy is (often low-value) physical goods, which the UK's isn't.

 

Rgds

 

Damon

 

 

joe90 Advanced Member

joe90

Posted
Posted

Interestingly enough that I read recently that the revenue we get from WTO rules from other countries we give to the EU minus a 20% handling fee.

  • 2 weeks later...
puntloos Advanced Member

puntloos

Posted
Posted

One thing I heard is that at least for the first 6 months, the UK is waiving all import fees from countries, so while there might be export fees, presumably if you manage to get some orders in before July you could still have good value?

  • Like 1
rbw Member

rbw

Posted
Posted
  On 25/09/2020 at 00:30, puntloos said:

One thing I heard is that at least for the first 6 months, the UK is waiving all import fees from countries, so while there might be export fees, presumably if you manage to get some orders in before July you could still have good value?

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Hello... do you have a source for this info?

 

The UK gov website says “From 1 January 2021, the UK will apply a UK-specific tariff to imported goods”. 

 

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/uk-tariffs-from-1-january-2021


The actual tariffs themselves appear to be governed by the Byzantine rules for non eu imports. I wouldn’t be surprised if some suspension is put in place, but at the moment I can’t find any reference to it. 
 

cheers. 

SteamyTea Advanced Member

SteamyTea

Posted
Posted
  On 25/09/2020 at 07:31, rbw said:

Hello... do you have a source for this info?

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Driving home last night I heard something on the radio about the wine industry wanting no tariffs to help our wine exports.

I don't know the size of the wine industry in the UK, but I suspect it is smaller than fishing, which at 100 million is very small (GDP is around 2.7 trillion).

daiking Advanced Member

daiking

Posted
Posted
  On 25/09/2020 at 07:53, SteamyTea said:

Driving home last night I heard something on the radio about the wine industry wanting no tariffs to help our wine exports.

I don't know the size of the wine industry in the UK, but I suspect it is smaller than fishing, which at 100 million is very small (GDP is around 2.7 trillion).

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Not to take away from your point which is perfectly reasonable but UK GDP is closer to £2.2 trillion (2.7t US dollars ish)

puntloos Advanced Member

puntloos

Posted
Posted (edited)
  On 25/09/2020 at 07:31, rbw said:


Hello... do you have a source for this info?

 

The UK gov website says “From 1 January 2021, the UK will apply a UK-specific tariff to imported goods”. 

 

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/uk-tariffs-from-1-january-2021


The actual tariffs themselves appear to be governed by the Byzantine rules for non eu imports. I wouldn’t be surprised if some suspension is put in place, but at the moment I can’t find any reference to it. 
 

cheers. 

Expand  

https://www.cbi.org.uk/uk-transition-hub/importing-goods-from-the-eu/ is the closest thing I could find, sorry. I think I heard it on TLDR news or something. Apologies I should've caveatted it a bit better that it's something I think I heard but can't find now. 

Edited by puntloos
rbw Member

rbw

Posted
Posted

Thanks @puntloos that link is really helpful and does as you say suggest that there’s going to be a further transition, but looks as though duty will still apply but on the UKGT tariff which is generally more favourable but just as incomprehensible!

 

Still don’t feel like chancing it so am going to try and get any big ticket items I need for my build in the country before the deadline if I can. 

  • Like 2
Temp Advanced Member

Temp

Posted
Posted

As I understand  under WTO rules we have to impose the same tariff on imports from all countries unless we have a trade agreement with them. So for example we currently impose 6% duty on imports of Aluminium products from non-eu countries. After the end of the year we have to decide if we will impose 6% duty on imports from the EU as well or some other rate. If we decide to reduce it to zero for the EU we have to reduce it to zero for all countries that we don't have a trade agreement with. We risk allowing cheap imports from say China to wipe out UK based manufacturing - the reason we have a tariff at the moment.

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