Are we targeting ASHP's at the wrong market?

[ProDave]

The push at the moment seems to be trying to persuade people to swap gas boilers for an ASHP.  A perfectly set up ASHP should be a little, not a lot, cheaper to run than a gas boiler.  If not perfect it could well cost more to run than the boiler it replaced.  So trying to persuade people to "invest" in a new heating system when they are quite happy with their old one and at best will only get a marginal saving, it is no wonder they are not queuing up to take up the offer.  you have to WANT to do it for other reasons, the main one being reducing CO2 emmisions.   

 

So are we targeting the worng market?  Why not instead target people using electric resistance heating currently, like electric panel heaters, storage heaters, or even electric boilers?  Those users would see their heating use of electricity drop by about 1/3 if they swapped to an ASHP,  saving them real money, not just marginal, and would reduce strain on the electricity grid which is already struggling at times. 

 

So that would give an immediate reduction in electricity used for heating, and reduced electricity use would mean fossil fuel generation required less frequently so an indirect saving in CO2 emmissions.

 

But the point is the customer would see a very real reduction in running cost not something marginal, and rather than increasing electricity use, it would be reducing it.

 

The boffins could do the sums to work out the CO2 reduction per kWh of electricity saved * and market it as CO2 reduction.

 

* It IS CO2 reduction because until we reach the point where no fossil fuel at all is used for electricity generation, then each 1kWh of electricity saved at the moment is 1kWh less generated by fossil fuels.

 

By the same token, installing an ASHP increases the electricity you use so that will increase fossil fuel generation at the moment so WILL result in increased CO2 emissions.

[Beelbeebub]

Yes. This.

 

Maybe an increaced grant for replacing any electric system with an efficency of less than 101% (ie all resistance heaters) with a HP and associated plumbing etc.

 

The only wrinkle is a lot of electric systems are in flats because of the difficulty of getting gas to them. This means the outside units have to be installed remotely or at height or there needs to be a building wide heat distribution system.

 

A balcony system would be good, but that probably rules out alot of air to water systems just leaving air to air.

 

Allowing hot water to still be risistance heated (cylinder or instantaneous) would help alot and DHW is typically not a large portion of demand.

[G and J]

4 minutes ago, Beelbeebub said:

Yes. This.

 

Maybe an increaced grant for replacing any electric system with an efficency of less than 101% (ie all resistance heaters) with a HP and associated plumbing etc.

 

The only wrinkle is a lot of electric systems are in flats because of the difficulty of getting gas to them. This means the outside units have to be installed remotely or at height or there needs to be a building wide heat distribution system.

 

A balcony system would be good, but that probably rules out alot of air to water systems just leaving air to air.

 

Allowing hot water to still be risistance heated (cylinder or instantaneous) would help alot and DHW is typically not a large portion of demand.

Having visited a few modest dwellings, which are the ones most likely to have storage rads or the like, my view is that even the houses often simply don’t have the outside space for an ASHP without giving up a good lump of tiny garden.  Maybe developing loft based heat pumps would help with high density housing.

 

However storage rads my be technically 100% in terms of energy in to energy out but they do have a financial benefit in terms of ToU tariff.

[Marvin]

https://www.coolingpost.com/uk-news/roof-mounted-heat-pumps-on-trial/

[Beelbeebub]

47 minutes ago, G and J said:

Having visited a few modest dwellings, which are the ones most likely to have storage rads or the like, my view is that even the houses often simply don’t have the outside space for an ASHP without giving up a good lump of tiny garden.  Maybe developing loft based heat pumps would help with high density housing.

 

However storage rads my be technically 100% in terms of energy in to energy out but they do have a financial benefit in terms of ToU tariff.

They don't have to be ground mounted. If you look around they are often mounted above head height on walls etc.

 

Air to air units can be pretty small but some of the r32 based units aren't big, about the same volume as a washing machine (but wider and less deep).

 

Yes, e7 tariifs etc make them cheaper to run but most e7 are around 10-15p a unit vs the 20-25p for standard rates.

 

A HP would only have to have a scop of 2 to make it cheaper. That should be easy with a new install.

 

The radiators (or fan coils) would probably be no bigger than the existing storage heaters. If we were happy to route the pipes on the surface at high level (to get past doorways etc) it would be a relatively easy install.

 

As storage heaters are notoriously uncontrollable, you coukd probably set the system up with no zones and WC and it would still be far nicer than the old setup.

 

 

[Beelbeebub]

6 minutes ago, Marvin said:

https://www.coolingpost.com/uk-news/roof-mounted-heat-pumps-on-trial/

My main issue is the servicing/access issue. The install would be really involved. Roofing work, loft hatch, crawl boards etc. A box on the outside just needs some drills.

 

 

Also, those units will always be lower volume manufacture vs. the beige box units. So will always be more expensive.

 

Plus no good for flats! 😁

 

[ProDave]

53 minutes ago, Marvin said:

https://www.coolingpost.com/uk-news/roof-mounted-heat-pumps-on-trial/

That is a difficult and expensive solution looking for a problem to solve.

 

Especially on a new build why would you?  and most certainly not as a retro fit.

[Beelbeebub]

8 minutes ago, ProDave said:

That is a difficult and expensive solution looking for a problem to solve.

 

Especially on a new build why would you?  and most certainly not as a retro fit.

I can only see them as a fit for areas of extreme visual sensitivity.

[Crofter]

I agree, but I presume that the focus on replacing gas boilers is because they are far more common than direct electric heating. Does anybody have numbers on this? 

 

FWIW, last year I installed A2A to replace my storage heaters. Didn't go looking for any sort of grant, in my experience grant schemes just tie you up in their requirements. I spent £4200 for a 10kw system ducted to five outlets. I did a good amount of the work myself, but had the supplier of the unit do the refrigerant lines.

 

It would have been nice to not have had to pay for that myself but I didn't think I qualified for any sort of help.

[Beelbeebub]

3 minutes ago, Crofter said:

I agree, but I presume that the focus on replacing gas boilers is because they are far more common than direct electric heating. Does anybody have numbers on this? 

 

FWIW, last year I installed A2A to replace my storage heaters. Didn't go looking for any sort of grant, in my experience grant schemes just tie you up in their requirements. I spent £4200 for a 10kw system ducted to five outlets. I did a good amount of the work myself, but had the supplier of the unit do the refrigerant lines.

 

It would have been nice to not have had to pay for that myself but I didn't think I qualified for any sort of help.

It varies by area but I think the national average is around 9%

 

Are you haply with the system? £4200 is not a crazy amount for a new heating system.

 

Yes, the anti HP brigade bang on about how you can get a new boiler for under a grand, but unless you are doing a really simple like for like swap of a heat only boiler with a cheap non vat one man band fitter you're going to be closer to £1,500.  Add in upgrades due to new regs (eg condensate drains) and some replacements of old parts like valves and rads and you coukd easily be towards £3-4k.

 

I've had quotes for £5-6k for fitting an a2a multisplit to a storage heater flat. That's probably less than fitting it out with a gas and rad system.

 

 

 

 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/articles/census2021howhomesareheatedinyourarea/2023-01-05

[BotusBuild]

3 hours ago, Beelbeebub said:

The only wrinkle is a lot of electric systems are in flats

Exhaust air heat pumps are designed for flats. Also helps with humidity reduction -> mold reduction -> health improvement.

 

A Win, Win, Win

[SBMS]

Couldn’t agree more @ProDave  think the ONS reports around 11%/2 million homes use direct electric heating - less than 1% use an ASHP. I believe that the BUS grant funding covers up to around 33k homes so the ambition is so low… you’re right though target those 33k homes. I would wager as well that those with electric only heating have a cylinder whereas those on gas might have a combi and no space for the cylinder so aren’t a great fit for a heat pump.

[G and J]

2 hours ago, Beelbeebub said:

As storage heaters are notoriously uncontrollable

Actually I think you’ll find there are some clever ones that connect into smart home systems now.

 

And for significant take up in replacing gas or electric resistance it needs to be financially attractive to social housing providers.  The ones who’ve been burnt by the first rather ill advised attempts that have helped give heat pumps a bad name.

[JohnMo]

2 minutes ago, SBMS said:

BUS grant funding

Sorry going to be a bit blunt - BUS scheme is really targeted at people with disposable income or more money than sense.

 

No sane person would pay, the stupid prices you see on here often quoted.

 

Exceptions are those that end up paying next to nothing, quite rare from what you read, and they have to do quite a bit of work themselves or be through an umbrella scheme, which is milking a flawed system h and why not.

[JohnMo]

2 minutes ago, G and J said:

connect into smart home systems now

My heating is - but get a short power cut or internet outage, you may wake to a cool house. Been there done that. Working my way from anything connected to internet for heating.

[S2D2]

The point of the BUS grant is to incentivise switching to an ASHP, required for gas boiler users because if installing an ASHP costs more than just putting in another combi, the vast majority will just put in another combi.

 

Somewhat unfortunately for resistance electric users, they already have a very strong incentive to switch to an ASHP as they could already achieve payback within a short time period. Thus, the government can leave the market to do its thing and no intervention (funding) is required.

 

I may be in the minority but the BUS grant did exactly what it was intended to for me. 11 year old end of life boiler and the BUS grant brought the price of an ASHP below that of a new combi, so in it goes and off goes the gas connection. Big tick in the decarbonisation box for that BUS funding.

[Crofter]

1 hour ago, Beelbeebub said:

 

Are you haply with the system? £4200 is not a crazy amount for a new heating system.

Yes, pretty happy. For a house that's intermittently occupied, and usually empty during the day, the instant response of the heat pump is great.

 

I don't know how my £4200 compares to installing a complete new wet system with boiler, rads, oil tank, etc. I suspect that oil would have cost more.

 

 

1 hour ago, Beelbeebub said:

 

 

[joth]

4 hours ago, ProDave said:

By the same token, installing an ASHP increases the electricity you use so that will increase fossil fuel generation at the moment so WILL result in increased CO2 emissions.

If this is compared to an existing gas boiler, then no that's not correct. A correctly installed ASHP will reduce CO2 emissions as the COP is better than grid system losses so less combustion is needed to drive it vs burning gas directly to create heat 

On top of that, a portion of the electricity is from nuclear or renewables thus much lower CO2

Edited 8 hours ago by joth

[ProDave]

2 minutes ago, joth said:

If this is compared to an existing gas boiler, then no that's not correct. A correctly installed ASHP will reduce CO2 emissions as the COP is better than grid system losses so less combustion is needed to drive it vs burning gas directly to create heat 

On top of that, a portion of the electricity is from nuclear or renewables thus much lower CO2

Yes swapping a gas boiler to ASHP will reduce CO2 emissions but I get the feeling people expect it to reduce CO2 emissions to zero.  It won't, at the moment and won't until we are generating all electricity from non fossil fuel sources.

[Beelbeebub]

41 minutes ago, G and J said:

Actually I think you’ll find there are some clever ones that connect into smart home systems now.

Yeah we tried some - need a second supply for the electronics and fan.

 

Fan is quiet, but still noisier than no fan.

 

Cost a packet

 

Very difficult to use. Tenant had endless problems - "I wish I'd stuck to the old one" (she wanted the upgrade).

 

In theory it predicts use and onky loads up with enough energy to supply next day.

 

In practice it means you can't change the output easily and if you do up it, you run out early.

 

They do have much better insulation and heat retention though which helps prevent th "hot mornings, cold evenings" issue.

 

If they did a dumb one with simple 2 dial controls and ideally no need for a separate always on feed for the controls that might be useful.

 

Still weigh a sodding ton, which is no fun hauling up 5 flights of stairs! 😁

[Beelbeebub]

42 minutes ago, JohnMo said:

My heating is - but get a short power cut or internet outage, you may wake to a cool house. Been there done that. Working my way from anything connected to internet for heating.

100% the Internet should never be a requirement for any of your house functions.

[Alan Ambrose]

OK, some stats:

 

+ 19% of homes are privately rented, 17% 'socially rented', that's 36% i.e. ~1/3rd of homes where the landlord would have to pay for the installation (including a rental void period) with the financial benefit of lower heating costs accruing to the tenant. That going to happen very rarely.

+ overlapping with that, 22% of dwellings were flats. Yeah, realistically impossible for flat owners to install ASHPs.

+ overlapping with that, 31% of dwelings in UK have no EPC rating (only required since 2007). We can reasonably conclude that they are mostly old enough to have sub-standard insulation and therefore not suitable for an ASHP.

+ overlapping with that, about 50% of homes that have EPCs are D or below and are probably not suitable for ASHPs.

+ overlapping with that, 74% of households use gas (plus 5% using oil) and therefore don't have any financial incentive to change.

+ of houseowners, 15% of private owners without mortgages are poor (Joseph Rowntree Foundation) and 17% of those with mortgages i.e. they don't have enough money to invest.

+ 2% of homes are listed and there are 10,000 conservation areas - both of which are either unsuitable or impossible to swap to an ASHP.

 

+ we don't have any idea how all those segments overlap, but just from EPC ratings (or lack of them) 2/3rds of dwellings are not suitable for heat pumps, 3/4 have gas already and no incentive to change. (EPCs are, of course, nonsense anyway as the main insulation areas (roof, floor, walls) may just be 'assumed'.)

+ plus it requires personal energy, money, time and the ability to endure the disruption and uncertainty that installation of an ASHP would require. You may also have to battle at your expense with the planners, who have no incentive to be reasonable.

+ many people may just be sitting on the fence as they know that government doesn't always get it right (viz. diesel cars); technology may improve, installers may be better skilled etc.
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[G and J]

So (19% + 17% + 22% + 31% + 50% + 74% + 15% + 17% + 2% ) = 278% of homes aren’t suitable for a heat pump.  Crumbs.

 

I’m no mathematician, but that seems a lot. 😉 

 

I think we need to demolish more buildings or accept slow progress towards net zero.

 

[Alan Ambrose]

My hairdresser tells me that in Japan, most buildings are designed for 50 years life and then they are expected to be replaced.

 

Had dinner at some friends who have a little listed cottage. The bemused owner, who had done a bit of an insulation refurb, had BC and the conservation people arguing back-and-forth what could and couldn't be done. That is, they hadn't even begun to figure out what was possible in that circumstance.

 

I think it might end up with the rich people owning the great looking old places with dodgy insulation and laughing off the energy bill; the middle classes hanging onto their gas boilers for as long as possible and the lower classes getting shafted as usual. Plus ça change.

 

p.s. and the small % of people who install heat pumps will be (a) people who have been misled, (b) buildhubbers and (c) enthusiatic gadget people, who own recently built homes by the mass-builders with gas boilers, that didn't get heat pumps when they were built.

Edited 7 hours ago by Alan Ambrose

[MikeSharp01]

4 hours ago, Marvin said:

https://www.coolingpost.com/uk-news/roof-mounted-heat-pumps-on-trial/

What an interesting journal! From ASHP in the roof to qubits cooling on the same page - great!