Triassic

New diesel and petrol vehicles to be banned from 2040

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New diesel and petrol vehicles to be banned from 2040 in UK. Great headline! But is it a realistic wish?

 

just a pity they don't target the housing stock and bring these up to a high standard, surely this would go a long way to reducing emissions.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40723581

Edited by Triassic

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There are data in this publication that shows the relative energy consumption by sector: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/573269/ECUK_November_2016.pdf

 

From that document, 40% of energy (in terms of tonnes of oil equivalent - the standard measure) is transport, 29% is domestic, 17% is industry and 14% is the service sector.  This means that focussing on transport will give a greater impact than focussing on the domestic sector, which is presumably what's driving this headline-grabbing suggested policy.  I personally doubt that the target will be achieved - it will probably be like the zero carbon homes target and be quietly scrapped when no one's watching.............

Edited by JSHarris
typo - "or" when I meant to type "of"

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I actually support it despite being a complete petrol head. However for reasons that typing on a phone would take too long to elaborate,  I can't see it ever happening. 

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It's only cars/LGV too..!

 

TfL bought a load of "green" buses recently and have had to spend an eye watering £86m to retrofit them to their own emissions target ..!

 

The HGV issue is the biggest one as the energy storage isn't available that would allow them to move from diesel - even hydrogen would be an issue and I can't see them sorting that any time in my lifetime. 

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I am confident it, or something like it, will happen the mood music is all in one direction and in 23 years it will be avalanching. What we 'more mature' coves tend to forget is that the younger generation will be well in charge by then and they are, for the most part, more planet friendly that our contemporaries. This means that they will adopt this and many other ideas and make it happen because it is in line with what they want. Already car makers are moving and the oil companies are beginning to diversify even further. The number of new build oil refineries across the planet is down by a significant percentage and, although we have yet to get any significant control over it, micro generation is making inroads. When I look back across the past 30 years I am reminded of my colleagues in the senior common room who said that my mobile phone (brick) would never catch on and now I look at my Samsung phone and realise that in 1986 you cold not have predicted the Samsung so by 2040 I think you can be confident that you won't recognise it. 

Edited by MikeSharp01
added 'or something like it'

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Due to the "global" nature of car production, single countries will find it very difficult to unilaterally ban internal combustion engines without seriously effecting the supply of vehicles to their home market.

 

The battery pack of an EV drives a very different under body and "crash structure". That "platform" requires huge development investment which is currently shared across global sales volumes.

 

With shared platforms across brands and across territories it could only work if a critical mass of those territories forced the change on similar timing.

 

France made a similar announcements a few weeks ago, UK has followed with the same timing. Odd that it's not a European announcement, perhaps Germany is dragging its feet due to the strength of their automotive manufacturing lobby.

 

A whole lot of other countries will need to follow suit for it to become a reality.

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Also you can probably be confident that the next technology, the one that will take over from the one we have now is already being developed along with very many that won't make it. In the end it will be about picking the winners - au revoir  Flash player, Beta Max, HDVD, VCRs.....

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8 minutes ago, IanR said:

The battery pack of an EV drives a very different under body and "crash structure". That "platform" requires huge development investment which is currently shared across global sales volumes.

 

 

I think this is one of the key advantages that Tesla had.  They were not a car manufacturer, so weren't locked into the "platform re-use" cycle that dominates all major car manufacturers.  This gave them the freedom to design from a clean slate, with the result that they managed to make a very "crash safe" structure, and enhance handling and performance at the same time.

 

Until the major manufacturers get around to developing a true EV platform, we will be stuck with pretty nasty compromise designs, like the new electric Mini, probably one of the daftest ideas in recent years to come from a mainstream manufacturer, outside France...............

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13 minutes ago, IanR said:

France made a similar announcements a few weeks ago, UK has followed with the same timing. Odd that it's not a European announcement, perhaps Germany is dragging its feet due to the strength of their automotive manufacturing lobby.

 

I think it may be more that German politicians are less happy spouting claptrap than their French  or UK equivalents. There is no shortage of Electric vehicle announcements from the German automotive groups and certainly the road maps I've seen all have large number of electric vehicles . I think they may just be being pragmatic in that the generation capacity is simply unlikely to be available - Particularly if you have decided as a country to switch off your nuclear generation capacity.

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1 minute ago, Alphonsox said:

[...]

Particularly if you have decided as a country to switch off your nuclear generation capacity.

 

Fly over Germany some day: get a window seat. Have you seen it from the air? Did you know that self-generation is being reported in the German press as a threat to the traditional producers? 

Vorsprung durch Technik, na das ist kompliziert!

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3 minutes ago, recoveringacademic said:

 

Fly over Germany some day: get a window seat. Have you seen it from the air? Did you know that self-generation is being reported in the German press as a threat to the traditional producers? 

Vorsprung durch Technik, na das ist kompliziert!

 

Completely agree they are well ahead of us in terms of PV and wind generation (I fly over Germany far too often for my liking, Munich airport is turning into a second home at the moment). I just wonder what you power your national fleet of electric cars with on a still winter's day/night.

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31 minutes ago, Alphonsox said:

There is no shortage of Electric vehicle announcements from the German Automotive groups and certainly the road maps I've seen aren't. 

 

Everything today, from all volume manufacturers (not including Tesla within this set), relates to niche vehicles that require either subsidies or early adopters that will accept the compromises.

 

A move to 100% EV will require a re-development and a re-tooling of the entire Automotive sector which is very different to the type of marketing announcements that the manufacturers currently make.

 

VW Audi Group for one will struggle to find the cash reserves necessary, even in the time frame, to invest in such a redevelopment of all their platforms.

Edited by IanR

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The lost fuel duty revenue (£27.6bn estimated by IFS for 2016/17) will force a significant change to how we're charged to use the roads in the UK.

 

Pay per mile perhaps?

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5 minutes ago, recoveringacademic said:

na das ist kompliziert

Yes but which Technology and Why is it complicated? I am not quite with Jeremy and others on this. I think, can probably prove to most peoples satisfaction, that where we are now is not a particular indication of where we will be in the future. This because although the future itself is not predictable the Soft systems (humans) perhaps soon to be aided by AI that underpin development are predictable in their unpredictability. Although high costs are indicated in moving from one technology to another and vested interest is a serious challenge to change we have, as humans, often demonstrated that such changes when provided with enough pressure (push or pull) our ability to make such changes. So from the time the flint knappers were wiped out by the bronze using hoards to the railways replacing the canals, to the Jet engine replacing the piston engine (and the attendant move from wooden air frames to metal ones) and so on we have demonstrated our propensity to move quite quickly and find the money. Many loose their proverbial shirts while others clean up (pardon the pun). Was it ever thus?

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Surely switching out fossil fuel for electric drive is more about reducing pollution in cities and not about reducing overall emmissions? With electric the pollution burden is now moved to the electric generation rather than to the cities. So if the increased electric generation requires more fossil fuels to be burnt, we have not fixed it.

 

Requires overview planning and solutions rather than single announcements. Having said that, having a target would certainly give focus behind which industry can align.

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1 hour ago, JSHarris said:

From that document, 40% of energy (in terms of tonnes of oil equivalent - the standard measure) is transport, 29% is domestic, 17% is industry and 14% is the service sector

Why I said a few years back about getting a more fuel efficient car is the easy, cheap and quick way to reduce your emissions footprint.

 

The German's are a canny lot.  They are getting a converted Merc B made in China, it has the longest range of any electric car yet (still not enough for me to visit my Mother).

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/mercedes-b-class-based-denza-400-has-249-mile-electric-range

 

I mentioned, about 7 years ago to a young lad I was working with that he would probably see the last new IC powered car in his lifetime.

Personal transport is going to change a lot in the next 30 years.  Self driving vehicles are going to be the real big one.  I am looking forward to them as I dislike driving these days and would quite happily lay in the back of a car, after mainlining heroin, and getting to my destination to join my 80 year old friends in a nicely numbed state.  Then we can all pogo to old Jam numbers.

 

I don' think that creating a new floorpan for EVs is a real problem for the automotive manufacturers, they are always creating new platforms.

30 years or so ago we made tooling for the auto industry (the Discovery Mk1 roof trip and the Ford P100 pickp rear window trip are my handywork), we had a trip out to Rover and saw a man hitting a tool with a ball hammer.  When I asked what he was doing I was told he was 'work hardening' it.  Things have moved on a lot in that time.

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Will you all stop writing interesting posts please. I need to stick to the knitting and get SWMBO's bathroom designed in Sketchup.

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17 minutes ago, IanR said:

The lost fuel duty revenue (£27.6bn estimated by IFS for 2016/17) will force a significant change to how we're charged to use the roads in the UK.

 

Pay per mile perhaps?

 

Surely that is also why Osbo killed the CO2 tax bands last year - haif of the cars were exempt from road tax.

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I think this shows every sign of being (another) attention seeking kneejerk - what is known as virtue signalling. Mrs May's government has lost the traditional Tory virtue of self-restraint and a cautious pace of change. She has caught something from Mr Brown.

 

Not impressed.

 

F

 

 

Edited by Ferdinand

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4 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

I don' think that creating a new floorpan for EVs is a real problem for the automotive manufacturers, they are always creating new platforms.

 

Agree, creating an EV Platform is just as easy as creating a IC engined platform, and in the normal course of events most platforms are replaced on a 10-to-12 year cycle.

 

But, the small size of the UK market alone will not encourage manufacturers to develop that platform. Just like Lancia did in the mid 90's, when manufacturing RHD was not cost effective, they will leave that market.

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2 hours ago, MikeSharp01 said:

I am confident it, or something like it, will happen the mood music is all in one direction and in 23 years it will be avalanching. What we 'more mature' coves tend to forget is that the younger generation will be well in charge by then and they are, for the most part, more planet friendly that our contemporaries.

Really? I'd love to see some supporting evidence of that theory. The younger generation are so spoiled and have such a sense of entitlement its sickening. New phone, clothes,  cars - no make do and mend here. No valuing what they have an making it last. No second thoughts on jetting halfway round the world on holiday twice a year and off to Ibiza for a long weekend. No chance of being seen dead with a phone more than a year old. 

 

What you find with the younger generation as far as I can see is the worst of 'do as I say,  not as I do'. They think austerity is not getting their travel expenses paid for at Uni. I could go on,  I shan't,  I'd be here too long on the sheer hypocrisy of the younger generation, a generation I could be deemed part of. 

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As more and more warning lights appear on my old '08 A6 Avant TDI, I'm looking at ULEV for my next car. I plan to keep the A6 (as its resale is pitiful, especially with the knocks and scrapes it's picked up during the build).

 

As we're in Berkshire and the wife's family are in Lanarkshire, that's the max distance we need to cover (about 380mi). Interesting to look at the location of charging points on the main UK routes, for me thats where the infrastructure investment needs to happen. Widespread access to rapid charge facilities (getting you to 80% in 30 mins) are the only really viable options, until then we're still going to be somewhat dependent on hybrid and range extender models.

 

Regarding the 'millennials'  - sure, they're more likely to live for the moment unlike us Gen-X and Boomers but then again, unlike us they are burdened with uni debt, are unlikely to purchase a property until their late 30s / early 40s, don't have long term job security plus an equally uncertain future of pensions and NHS and they are bombarded with realtime reminders of how their peer group are doing with all the associated pressure to keep up and put on a good show. I don't envy them one bit...

 

 

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41 minutes ago, jamiehamy said:

Really? I'd love to see some supporting evidence of that theory. The younger generation are so spoiled and have such a sense of entitlement its sickening. New phone, clothes,  cars - no make do and mend here. No valuing what they have an making it last. No second thoughts on jetting halfway round the world on holiday twice a year and off to Ibiza for a long weekend. No chance of being seen dead with a phone more than a year old. 

 

What you find with the younger generation as far as I can see is the worst of 'do as I say,  not as I do'. They think austerity is not getting their travel expenses paid for at Uni. I could go on,  I shan't,  I'd be here two long on the sheer hypocrisy of the younger generation,  a generation I could be deemed part of. 

I blame their parents...

 

EDIT: Those entitled youngsters demanding their driving licences

 

http://www.wctrs-society.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/abstracts/rio/selected/855.pdf

 

If I spent more than 3 seconds looking for this I could probably dispute everything in your post.

 

Of course they don't drive because they're always drinking...

 

https://www.addiction-ssa.org/commentary/the-changing-face-of-alcohol-consumption-by-young-people

 
Edited by daiking

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2 hours ago, IanR said:

Just like Lancia did in the mid 90's,

"The fact is, all Lancia's had problems"

 

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9 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

"The fact is, all Lancia's had problems"

 

They did, all RHD & LHD.

 

They stood as a caricature of the Italian automotive industry at the time.

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