On 29/06/2022 at 19:59, Kelvin said:

Not especially either. It’s just the general increase in costs. We got our timber kit price yesterday and it’s almost twice the price it was a year ago. It’s a closed panel system that is now dearer than their SIP system. 

 

2 hours ago, Kelvin said:

Yes and no. Their SIP kits haven’t increased significantly  nor have the CLT kits but their CPS kits have which are now dearer than the SIP equivalent. We prefer the CPS kit because the walls are deeper meaning all the window reveals are 300mm deep rather than 150mm. 

 

If costs are an issue see where the big costs lie and think differently if possible 

 

I'd love to build a timber kit house, but I can't afford one. 

11 hours ago, Simplysimon said:

how low a U value are you going?

The CPS system is quoted as 0.16 

10 hours ago, Miek said:

 

 

If costs are an issue see where the big costs lie and think differently if possible 

 

I'd love to build a timber kit house, but I can't afford one. 

 

We can afford to do it it’s more whether it makes financial sense really. To your point though. There are three obvious areas where we can save money. We’re building a big garage and the timber kit company are supplying it so we could choose not to actually build it at all or build it smaller in a different way. The house is timber clad so there’s a wide range of prices for that. I’ve priced based on Accoya or Abodo both very expensive. It will have a standing seam roof and again there’s a broad range of cost options. I was planning on putting in home automation from Loxone but had an awful time trying to get any sense out of the only dealer near us plus it costs a lot of money so have already ditched that. 

According to the FT inflation will peak at late in 2022 (around 10%+) and then fall away steeply in the first half of 2023 but still remaining positive and bottoming out at around 2%. Whilst I hope for they do, personally, I can't see material costs dropping in the next 12-18 months. 

1 hour ago, Happy Valley said:

According to the FT inflation will peak at late in 2022 (around 10%+) and then fall away steeply in the first half of 2023 but still remaining positive and bottoming out at around 2%. Whilst I hope for they do, personally, I can't see material costs dropping in the next 12-18 months. 

It’s all guessing is the conclusion I’ve come to. 
 

We are going to batter on with our build. My next thread is going to be a moan about architects, attention to detail, and wasted time. 😂 Ours has caused about 4 months of delays so far. 

That’s a big issue for us too. There are buyers for our house as it is a good plot. There is no doubt a new build is attractive for us , but costs are getting so high that maybe the risk at 72years is too high . We could have a great last few years here and a daughter enjoy it after .., 

Great topic. Just a few thoughts that I think are somewhat reasonable here in Hertfordshire

 

Prices went up about 30% between Jan 1st 2021 and Today. 

There doesn't seem to be an end in sight, so if anything you should build sooner rather than later, unless you have reasons to predict some type of bubble coming (I don't, but of course anything can happen.. what will happen if Russia or Ukraine 'wins' ? What if Labour takes the government? What if what if.. but for now I expect trends to continue, perhaps flatten off somewhat, but not go down.)

 

My sense for actual houses on the market today is that recently (last 4months) I've seen 3 houses come on, and then quickly go off our local market that are very comparable to my planned house in size, quality, location, and they are consistently purchased at about 25% higher than what I expect my build to cost. I don't know if, or why I'm bucking @Gus Potter's prediction of 10-15% for an amateur, but I did put a ton of time into making my design very solid and deliberate. A lot of things are 'exactly like I want them' and I have been forced only to make a few compromises - primarily my plot is small. 

 

As others have said, once you get into housebuilding (my 1000 posts here on buildhub are a hint..) you get a better and better idea of what makes a good house, and frankly I find the average quality of houses in my area _appaling_ - so many bizarre designs not to mention low ceilings, terrible windows (what is it with the british and leaded sliding wood windows)

 

Here's another example - new build so no weird existing house constraints that the arch had to work around, no he thought this is a good design for a central stair:

 

 

WAT.

 

So.. much.. wasted.. space (not to mention the skylight is above a stair so no light makes it into the hallway where you'd want it.. uh.. 

 

Ahem anyway, rant over. Yes, the sale value of your selfbuild house will be letssay 20% more than what you put in (money wise), but given that you can make a house that truly works well for you, the worth to you might be greater.

 

 

 

On 01/07/2022 at 15:49, 7dayworker said:

.. . We could have a great last few years here and a daughter enjoy it after .., 

 

We built for family  and quality of life in retirement. Money numbers become less of an obsession then.

4 hours ago, ToughButterCup said:

 

We built for family  and quality of life in retirement. Money numbers become less of an obsession then.

Yes that’s where we’ve go to as well. The quotes I’m getting back aren’t as horrendous as I was expecting so mibbe it will be fine 😂 

11 hours ago, Kelvin said:

Yes that’s where we’ve go to as well. The quotes I’m getting back aren’t as horrendous as I was expecting so mibbe it will be fine 😂 

What are your quotes per sqm averaging at out of interest?

13 hours ago, Kelvin said:

Yes that’s where we’ve go to as well. The quotes I’m getting back aren’t as horrendous as I was expecting so mibbe it will be fine 😂 

Have you talked to an independant SE / Designer for a bit of friendly advise, to chew the fat, a few pointers and for moral support yet?

As a comparator, sale prices seem to be between 20 and 25% up on 2 years ago. HMLR price index.

 

On average.

 

Quote

The latest house price data published on GOV.UK by HM Land Registry (HMLR) for April 2022 show that average house prices in the UK increased by 12.4% in the year to April 2022, up from 9.7% in the year to March 2022.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/april2022

 

(The increase to March 21 was 8.9%)

 

Ferdinand

 

16 hours ago, SBMS said:

What are your quotes per sqm averaging at out of interest?

I’ve not got everything back yet to have a view of that. By quotes I meant for some of the individual main components. The CPS system including alu clad doors and windows, insulation, and erection is £150k for 202sqm. The heat recovery is £8k. Cladding is dearer than expected at £17.5k for Abodo. I’m going to a local sawmill in Dunfermline to get a quote for homegrown larch which will be less than half that. The Catnic SSR roof is £14k inc VAT and delivery. The kitchen is £25k for the kitchen and utility room and the bathrooms £9k. I should get a good deal for the ASHP & UFH and PV & battery storage as a friend is quoting on this for me and I’ll go with him. 
 

I am also building a 10mx6m garage block. At the moment this is being planned as a single skin timber frame but I am looking at all options. I went to Catnic Matrix to get a quote for their SIP construction. It’s come back at £53k inc VAT delivery and erection with doors and windows. That’s £200/sqm dearer than my timber kit which is already dear. To that you still need to fit cladding for the roof and walls so another £12k or so. I can build an insulated steel frame building complete for less than half that which is what I’ll do. It’s not as well insulated etc but twice the price is too dear imo. 

Edited July 23, 20224 yr by Kelvin

15 hours ago, Gus Potter said:

Have you talked to an independant SE / Designer for a bit of friendly advise, to chew the fat, a few pointers and for moral support yet?

I have an architect although they aren’t much use on alternative approaches as they are also the timber kit supplier and I use this forum for moral support. The kit company have a preferred QS they recommend but he has rubbed me up the wrong way frankly with his slightly arrogant I know everything and you know nothing attitude. 

 I am having the same thoughts as the OP. Bought a nice wee cottage for 220, probably over paid for it but its what we wanted. Its about 50m2 and we are adding another 60m2, will end up with 2 big bedrooms an office/bedroom and the extension will be open plan kitchen, lounge, dining with a utility room off that. So having spent that already we thought maybe the same again would do the job, OK 450 for a 3 bed cottage in rural, Perthshire is maybe a bit ambitious but what the hell! First couple of tenders are looking at 300! So by the time we add on a new septic tank a anice kitchen and bathroom we will be the proud owners of a 600k 3 bed cottage. Albeit with a large garden! The money is not the issue but what will it be worth long term, we are planning it as our last house (and will be the only house we have owned and lived in). 

On 01/07/2022 at 09:02, Happy Valley said:

According to the FT inflation will peak at late in 2022 (around 10%+) and then fall away steeply in the first half of 2023 but still remaining positive and bottoming out at around 2%. Whilst I hope for they do, personally, I can't see material costs dropping in the next 12-18 months. 

When inflation falls, it does not mean prices are going to come down.  It just means they stop going up, or at least go up a lot slower.

9 hours ago, Col2021 said:

 I am having the same thoughts as the OP. Bought a nice wee cottage for 220, probably over paid for it but its what we wanted. Its about 50m2 and we are adding another 60m2, will end up with 2 big bedrooms an office/bedroom and the extension will be open plan kitchen, lounge, dining with a utility room off that. So having spent that already we thought maybe the same again would do the job, OK 450 for a 3 bed cottage in rural, Perthshire is maybe a bit ambitious but what the hell! First couple of tenders are looking at 300! So by the time we add on a new septic tank a anice kitchen and bathroom we will be the proud owners of a 600k 3 bed cottage. Albeit with a large garden! The money is not the issue but what will it be worth long term, we are planning it as our last house (and will be the only house we have owned and lived in). 

 

So you'll end up at £300k for a 110m2 cottage, or effectively £300k of work to add 60m2 and refurb the existing 50m2? That works out at close to £3k/m2 if you take it across the entire floorspace and even higher if you only consider the newly added space.

 

Cheaper possibly to start from scratch as you get a brand new, thermally efficient building that also gives you the VAT saving - and you should comfortably be able to come in £2.5-£3k/m2 on that. Also easier, once you get past the hurdle of planning.

On 01/07/2022 at 15:49, 7dayworker said:

...

We could have a great last few years here and a daughter enjoy it after .., 

 

Precisely. 

And that makes the term unaffordable  more elastic doesn't it.  

 

@Jeremy Harris wrote memorably somewhere in this cavernous resource about optimism bias. Self building in the family context - unless you are as gifted,  determined and as well connected as @nod - is as severe a test of character as you can get. The commonest story we hear from friends is that the process breaks up marriages, beggars people and forces more compromise than is comfortable. 

 

And yet,  and yet.

Unaffordable does not mean impossible. 

 

When he had broken me almost completely,  a nasty , hairy-arsed Parachute Regiment sergeant once snarled sweetly in my ear:

"Take life by the balls sir and swing on them."

 

Self building is affordable. 

How and when are the only things we need to work out. 

 

 

 

On 30/06/2022 at 12:31, Ferdinand said:

I wonder what would happen if we had a Govt which tackled the never-ending Housing Price Bubble, and took as much speculation as possible out of property ownership?

 

Like a land-based tax system, I think it's a great idea in principle, but getting there from here will involve a decade of pain. No government in its right mind would propose something like this in the current climate.

1 hour ago, jack said:

 

Like a land-based tax system, I think it's a great idea in principle, but getting there from here will involve a decade of pain. No government in its right mind would propose something like this in the current climate.

 

We know that house value gains are Potempkin wealth.

 

And at present there is hardly anyone without 20-25% headroom on their Loan to Value.

 

Which TBH sounds like an ideal time.

Got to agree, yes many will find it painful but it is an ideal time to push up interest rates and force home prices down. Discourage borrowing, Lower inflation, encourage saving, pension growth.

But yes it’s political suicide

1 minute ago, markc said:

Got to agree, yes many will find it painful but it is an ideal time to push up interest rates and force home prices down. Discourage borrowing, Lower inflation, encourage saving, pension growth.

But yes it’s political suicide

 

I'd be after tax reform. CGT on Main Residence, Proportional Property Tax.

 

Interest rates will be going up modestly on their own.

Quick answer to the above is NO Self build hasn’t become unaffordable 

Whilst costs have gone up So have property prices 

Where else can you get a home exactly how you want it and in the location of your choice 

12 minutes ago, nod said:

Where else can you get a home exactly how you want it and in the location of your choice 

I think that is part of the confusion about self build being unaffordable.

Most on here want to build a better than developer house, in a place they want to live.

But many people, not on here, and without the motivation and skill set to build, don't bother.

So maybe the one answer is to have some small, kit houses, that can be built by anyone with a paid supervisor.  I would imaging these to be small 'starter homes' with developer, which may be a charity, organising the hard work i.e. planning and services.

The 'self builder' would then basically help build the frame and do the fitting out (we can get rid of a lot of wet processes these days.

Some things would need to be done by certified people i.e. some plumbing and wiring, but sensible initial design would make this fairly low costs.

 

17 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

I think that is part of the confusion about self build being unaffordable.

Most on here want to build a better than developer house, in a place they want to live.

I was in an odd situation that we were downsizing, so the new house HAD to cost less than the value of the old one, as PAYING to downsize was a pill I could not swallow.