Where is the kWh price heading in 2022?

[Temp]

  On 20/08/2022 at 18:11, Roger440 said:

 

Just filled my oil tank.

 

Its a crazy world when heating with oil is substantially cheaper than heating with gas.

 

One wonders at what point its cheaper to fire up my generator and connect to a set of batteries, than buying from the grid? Might be there already for non domestic?

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Think it might be time for me. Heating Oil has been ticking up slowly for about a week. Currently 88p/L.

[Ferdinand]

  On 20/08/2022 at 19:13, AliG said:

Are you on Go or Intelligent?

 

They won't let you have Outgoing Agile if you are on one of these.

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I'm on Oh Bugger AVRO Went Bankrupt !

 

Just pv panels and a house - no Car or Battery.

 

So the potential gain for me is to do either a divert device and water tank with a feed of pre-warmed water into the Combi, or export at full price.

 

Or potentially a house battery, but they are on lead times and I may not need it.

 

My current challenge is to avoid using gas for heating this winter.

[Roger440]

  On 20/08/2022 at 19:47, Temp said:

 

Think it might be time for me. Heating Oil has been ticking up slowly for about a week. Currently 88p/L.

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Im hoping i called it right last week. Managed to squeeze 880 lites in.

[Temp]

  On 20/08/2022 at 19:49, Roger440 said:

 

Im hoping i called it right last week. Managed to squeeze 880 lites in.

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Boilerjuice chart for England says 88p/L but when I ordered just now the quote was 84.67p/L so not quite as bad as expected. 

 

 

[joe90]

Just had an Email from octopus advising of impending price cap rise, their usual bill for fuel per year is £1.5b but this year is more like £9b. They have never made a profit and won’t again this year!!! Worrying times, I am on a flexible rate 🤯

[ProDave]

I heard a snippet on the radio news on the way home this afternoon that someone is now predicting the price cap for the typical house is now likely to be £6000

 

Why do I get the feeling we are going through some manipulation, with ever increasing unbelievable price rise estimates, to butter us up to accept the actual rise as "phew is that all"?

[Temp]

Just seen that here..

 

"Energy price cap could pass £6,000 for first time in new forecast"

 

https://www.itv.com/news/2022-08-20/energy-price-cap-could-pass-6000-for-first-time-in-new-forecast

 

[Roger440]

  On 20/08/2022 at 20:27, ProDave said:

I heard a snippet on the radio news on the way home this afternoon that someone is now predicting the price cap for the typical house is now likely to be £6000

 

Why do I get the feeling we are going through some manipulation, with ever increasing unbelievable price rise estimates, to butter us up to accept the actual rise as "phew is that all"?

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Maybe. Im as cynical as anyone, but at £6k, there will be a lot of people that cant and wont pay.

 

At which point it will become a government problem. They are simply not going to allow significant numbers of people to be cut off, so effectively the suppliers will be supplying energy free of charge. That cant end well and government will be forced to intervene.

 

Of course, they could try being proactive, but i think we all know they will sit on their hands until its a full blown crisis.

[Simplysimon]

  On 20/08/2022 at 19:49, Ferdinand said:

 

Or potentially a house battery, but they are on lead times and I may not need it.

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batteries here have no idea if costs are good or not

[MikeSharp01]

  On 20/08/2022 at 20:43, Roger440 said:

 

At which point it will become a government problem. They are simply not going to allow significant numbers of people to be cut off, so effectively the suppliers will be supplying energy free of charge. That cant end well and government will be forced to intervene.

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This is getting very unstable, and for many it must be very stressful, and you must consider the possibility of wide scale revolt unless someone gets a grip - the question will be positive or negative grip as getting it wrong will perhaps lead to a very difficult situation.

[Temp]

  On 20/08/2022 at 20:43, Roger440 said:

Maybe. Im as cynical as anyone, but at £6k, there will be a lot of people that cant and wont pay.

 

At which point it will become a government problem.

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I think the government was going to have to intervene anyway. The problem is how.

 

I wonder if the EU has enough buying power to somehow force down wholesale Energy prices? Perhaps if a wider group of countries could agree? After all its essentially a supply and demand issue.

 

This might mean rationing/allocating energy rather than fighting over it on the free market.

 

 

Edited August 20, 2022 by Temp

[Radian]

  On 20/08/2022 at 20:57, Simplysimon said:

batteries here have no idea if costs are good or not

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"Used Once"

Yup.

[NSS]

  On 20/08/2022 at 20:27, ProDave said:

I heard a snippet on the radio news on the way home this afternoon that someone is now predicting the price cap for the typical house is now likely to be £6000

 

Why do I get the feeling we are going through some manipulation, with ever increasing unbelievable price rise estimates, to butter us up to accept the actual rise as "phew is that all"?

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Exactly what I thought when I heard that number 👍🏻 

[Pocster]

Let people export for 50p kw/Kw/kW/kWh/KWH/kwH/etc. 😁👍

Edited August 21, 2022 by pocster

[SteamyTea]

  On 21/08/2022 at 08:06, pocster said:

Let people export for 50p kw 😁👍

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kWh you (expletive deleted)

[Pocster]

  On 20/08/2022 at 20:27, ProDave said:

I heard a snippet on the radio news on the way home this afternoon that someone is now predicting the price cap for the typical house is now likely to be £6000

 

Why do I get the feeling we are going through some manipulation, with ever increasing unbelievable price rise estimates, to butter us up to accept the actual rise as "phew is that all"?

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We are being manipulated. Petrol price rises then the 5p off the tax was never fully passed on . Government will ( has to ! ) intervene at some point . But I guess they like it to be real bad so they come along as the hero’s and save us all in our moment of need .

[SteamyTea]

  On 21/08/2022 at 08:09, pocster said:

We are being manipulated.

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Only if you want to be.

https://www.wikihow.com/Stop-Being-a-Victim

 

So best to use the correct terminology.

Edited August 21, 2022 by SteamyTea

[Pocster]

  On 21/08/2022 at 08:12, SteamyTea said:

Only if you want to be.

https://www.wikihow.com/Stop-Being-a-Victim

 

So best to use the correct terminology.

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Stop trying to manipulate me !

[Radian]

  On 21/08/2022 at 08:09, pocster said:

Petrol price rises then the 5p off the tax was never fully passed on . Government will ( has to ! ) intervene at some point .

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That encapsulates the problem perfectly. Short of being in a communist style command economy, Government interventions are often unable to have their intended effects due to the adaptations made by the free market economy.

[MikeSharp01]

  On 21/08/2022 at 09:17, Radian said:

Government interventions are often unable to have their intended effects due to the adaptations made by the free market economy.

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Perhaps because they don't think things through so as to get the intended consequences by intervening in the right place(s) in correct proportion. They make no use of cause/effect analysis or systems thinking of any type so no wonder things don't go the way intended. Markets are highly predictable on the surface much less so below and they create socio-technological gaps where innovation, of all sorts, can thrive. 

[Pocster]

  On 21/08/2022 at 09:27, MikeSharp01 said:

They make no use of cause/effect analysis or systems thinking of any type so no wonder things don't go the way

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I agree with this 100% - what I can’t fathom is why government has such a short term view and a complete inability to see the usually obvious consequences. The list of blunders when some outcomes are obvious is startling .

[SteamyTea]

Most petrol stations have not been able to cover costs by selling fuel alone. Why they are generally small supermarkets, with much higher prices.

When we had two petrol stations, we were paid a subsidy from the distillery (Shell in our case) to support running costs.

To put it bluntly, it don't really matter if the subsidy is passed on or not, without it many petrol stations would close.

[Radian]

  On 21/08/2022 at 09:27, MikeSharp01 said:

Perhaps because they don't think things through so as to get the intended consequences by intervening in the right place(s) in correct proportion. They make no use of cause/effect analysis or systems thinking of any type so no wonder things don't go the way intended. Markets are highly predictable on the surface much less so below and they create socio-technological gaps where innovation, of all sorts, can thrive. 

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I'm not so sure. With no strings attached, a government even as daft as the ones we always end up with might be able to do the analysis and steer things rationally towards an outcome. But they continue to operate as puppets of the private sector and their shareholders. The actions they take are carefully crafted to look as though they're responding to the situation while in practice they're maintaining some kind of status quo.

 

Choosing between cock-up or conspiracy is a false dichotomy anyway. What we always end up with is a conspiratorial cock-up.

[Ferdinand]

  On 21/08/2022 at 09:39, SteamyTea said:

Most petrol stations have not been able to cover costs by selling fuel alone. Why they are generally small supermarkets, with much higher prices.

When we had two petrol stations, we were paid a subsidy from the distillery (Shell in our case) to support running costs.

To put it bluntly, it don't really matter if the subsidy is passed on or not, without it many petrol stations would close.

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That's a fair comment.

 

One of the long run characteristics of petrol retailing in the UK has been its end-to-end efficiency and generally low retailer margins compared to some other places.

 

We have lost 1/3 of our petrol stations since 2000 (8500 vs 12500), and 60% since 1990. But that has been stable since 2010, which suggests that is perhaps an optimal number.

 

Though the growth of Electric will perhaps put it all back in the mix, to the advantage of those with space and local electricity supply for a coffee bar and a fast charger. 

 

Looking at the numbers, margins do seem to have increased - so we can expect a further fall in prices, perhaps.

[markc]