Rethinking the mindset for mass retrofit - a provocative idea

[TonyT]

14 hours ago, Radian said:

I think my experience shows the aims of the OP may be achievable - at least for those of us living in the South.

 

I've been on a mission to range-rate my 30kW gas boiler down as far as possible to emulate replacement with an ASHP. The first step was to implement a digital interface to gain control of flow temperature to run separate DHW and radiator temperatures. Surprisingly to me, over the last winter, I managed to get down to 15kW max. power output and run the existing radiators at 55^oC without any great drama. This is significantly lower than the original design levels. Less than 15kW didn't work out too well for the DHW when asking for 65^oC so I caved in at 15kW (but I may re-visit this as I was under pressure to 'fix' things at the time). Now I've got full control over flow temperature I need to look at load or weather compensation to see if I could improve the projected SCOP.

 

The house is detached 4/5 bed built to slightly worse insulation levels than should have been in force for 1998 although the empty cavity walls have recently had an EPS fill. Annual gas consumption has remained fairly consistent over the last four years (including this year's experiment) so the losses remain fairly constant but are replenished over a longer period.

 

can I please ask how to range rate a boiler, only a term I have heard the past year or so!

 

appreciate it’s different for every make model

[joe90]

However, another house I own as a rental is awful insulation wise, it would be ideal for EWI and I applied for a gov grant to do that but it sold out within a couple of hours, surely this kind of gov scheme would be much cheaper to the country then demolishing and re building?

[JamesPa]

57 minutes ago, markocosic said:

Careful there. That's sailing close to stating that the chap is always being a knob; not to mention nothing like the truth.

 

That's certainly not the intention and I apologise if it was perceived that way.  We need people from the whole spectrum from 'install crap - install middle ground - install perfection' to comment if only because that represents the customer base!

 

19 minutes ago, ProDave said:

Which is why fitting an ASHP but keeping the original radiators is going to under perform.  Yes reducing the temperature in radiators when possible by WC will improve that, but is a sticking plaster compared to doing the job properly and heating by UFH with sub 40C water all year.  That is the issue, we are trying to do half a job here, not properly upgrade the old properties.

 

Agree in principle, but back in the real world hardly anybody is going to pay the price of a complete system rip out.  So perfection gets in the way of better than doing nothing.  Lets Face facts, a mass rip out of existing properties is just not going to happen, desirable though it may be!  So we have to accept a less than perfect solution if we are to have any solution at all.

 

17 minutes ago, offthepiste said:

Whilst I absolutely support ASHP suspect the octopus initiative will automatically attract serious negative (gutter) press.

 

I answered their online questionnaire knowing that it should not recommend ASHP without first having addressed insulation and airtightness issues we previously had in our victorian terraced house. 

 

The implication from the outcome of the questionnaire was that I was good to go in installing an ASHP without addressing the other - very expensive issues.

 

octopus should seriously be upfront about these issues.  

 

 

No doubt that basic and easy jobs like installing loft insulation, eliminating major drafts, and cavity wall insulation if you have cavity walls (and arguably double glazing) should come first.  But we have plenty of houses where the reasonably easy has already been done, where the demand is in the 4-12kW region easily accessible by ASHPs.  Are you saying we should obsess with 'fabric first' once these have ben done and we are within the range easily achievable by an ASHP, I would suggest that that's not the right approach as there comes a point where you reach the point of diminishing returns with insulation and its easier to reduce carbon by changing the heating source.  I do agree that Octupus should be upfront though, as should this whole industry.

51 minutes ago, markocosic said:

You're looking at sCOP 2.8ish at 55C or sCOP 2.3ish at 65C all year.

 

This falls below the sCOP at which the government considers there to be any carbon savings and more importantly perhaps below the sCOP at which you don't cause higher operating costs.

 

I did the calculations based on LGs specs and the temperature profile in the South of England.  I am not making any claims for colder climes as I haven't done the maths (but I have posted the model so somebody else can). 

 

Someone upthread reports an achieved SCOP of 3 at 55 (versus 3.2 predicted), in a location further north with an earlier model LG HP, suggesting LGs specs aren't that far off.   3 is good enough with the current relationship between gas prices and electricity prices, which is artificially tilted in favour of gas (a tilt which is likely to change).  

 

58 minutes ago, markocosic said:

Probably better to sell them A2A units at heating sCOP 5ish then let money saving expert show them how to use these to offset gas use.

For houses that this suits and for people who will buy, yes.  A2W is part of the solution (perhaps the biggest part given our legacy), A2A is part of the solution and niche products like infra red heating is also part of the solution.  No one size fits all , each need a workable model.

 

55 minutes ago, markocosic said:

The gas boys and girls would like the market to think that this is the mass market but actually no, the *mass* market really is about 55C

I strongly suspect you are right there, my house runs quite happily at 55C despite the fact it was designed for 70C.  like many Ive upgraded the insulation since the CH was first put in.  Fortunately that plays to my suggestion not against it, if many houses can already ruin at 55C why insist on all the system upgrades that the 'industry' currently more or less insists on doing.  Why not just whack in an ASHP with well adjusted WC running at 55C, and offer the upgrades as an optional add on.  

[JamesPa]

1 minute ago, TonyT said:

 

can I please ask how to range rate a boiler, only a term I have heard the past year or so!

 

appreciate it’s different for every make model

On my aging Worcester Bosch system boiler its in the installer 'menu' (not really a menu, the 'display' is a 4 digit 8 segment LED),.  You get to this by playing some odd tricks with the DHW flow temp and CH flow temp dials (reminiscent of opening a safe).  The manual explains it quite clearly though.

[SteamyTea]

Does seem that control systems are the main problem, for both installers and users.

Maybe a new thread to discus the best way to design a control system is needed.

 

I was chatting to a plumber last night, asked if he did HPs, said he was going to avoid them for the time being.

I mentioned that many customers will need education as they are not used like gas boilers i.e. whack in 25 kW for a few minutes, then switch off (even though a well buffered and modulating system should not run like this).

He said ''good luck with that".

 

So is the real problem an educational one?

[Iceverge]

10 minutes ago, markocosic said:

So...you proved that it'll work just fine with a heat pump running and 50 degC...even if you were to switch the thing off for 8 hours a day?

 

Why do conclude that 70 degC is required? (even on this sample of one)

 

It'll work but it'll be very expensive to to install and run. If you can provide €10K for an ASHP and carbon free electricity at 10c/kWh then it's fine.

 

The leakier the building, the more economical it becomes to heat them intermittently.  Intermittent heating relies on being able to deliver a large amount of heat quickly. To do this you need a large emitter area or a large delta T.  Most old FF powered CH systems are gauged around high temp so intermittent heating with 50 degrees would result in a larger amount of delivered heat being wasted. 

 

 

 

[RichardL]

2 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

So is the real problem an educational one?

Perhaps - but is the model of turn the heating on when its cold - or simple automation with a thermostat a bad user interface?

The user interface feels fine (to me/opinion  ) - the trick is making the heating system do the right thing, and be felt to do the right thing, with the user/human requests above.

How much education is required?

[offthepiste]

I know a company, well experienced in passivhaus and enerphit, that has been installing ASHPs in council properties (along with appropriate insulation, etc. measures.)

 

They have taken great lengths to inform and try to educate the residents about how ASHP works and how to live with them.

 

They have found that the vast majority of residents have ignored them with many switching off the ASHP and resorting to electric heaters .. and then complain about their heating bills.

 

I know, having recently completed our retrofit, that ASHP and associated low operating temperatures take a little getting used to .. and have had to be patient with myself!

 

It does take time to learn to live with ASHPs and configure them for a whole house (we have GF ufh and low temp jaga rads upstairs along with mvhr)

 

[Iceverge]

2 minutes ago, RichardL said:

is the model of turn the heating on when its cold

 

This is really should be as difficult as it gets. It's what we do in the living room in our house in the evenings. 

 

Turn on the electric rad and close the door. Very soon it's 24 deg, up from 20. 

 

We turn it off when it's too hot. 

[Iceverge]

1 minute ago, offthepiste said:

They have found that the vast majority of residents have ignored them with many switching off the ASHP and resorting to electric heaters .. and then complain about their heating bills.

 

Why not an A2A unit. Instant response.  If only they had some less complex controls. 

 

[Dave Jones]

1 hour ago, markocosic said:

 

Sue them for damages. Cost of additional energy and CO2 offsets for the next 50 years. Haul them in front of their MP and the papers. Indefensible behaviour not in the overall public interest.

 

Or just render your property including 200 mm of EPS in the render and invite them to go do one.

 

Planning is not required for EWI any more so than it is for render. It is not legally an extension. Permitted development in the cast majority of cases.

 

(my brother told Cambridge city council to go do one when they demanded a planning application for EWI; and you'll find that in their own solid walled properties that for EWIed there's no record of a planning application)

 

The mistake that many make is asking permission of somebody who just loves any excuse to make you jump through hoops.

 

EWI isnt an option for a lot of buildings as there isnt room in the footprint for it, alleys etc. IT also looks completely crap compared to brickwork.

[SteamyTea]

16 minutes ago, RichardL said:

How much education is required

Loads.

How many people think turning the thermostat up will heat the building faster.

50%

 

How many people think that turning the heating off means it must use less energy the next time it is run?

Lots.

 

Try explaining how a heating system is meant to be set up and work is not an easy task. Silly terms like 'thermal mass' and 'solar gain' soon enter the conversation.

 

But I was not really refering to that.

So yes, there needs to be a visible temperature control, and a standard to modulate that is universal.

It does not matter how any particular type, make it model actually does its thing, just that the user and communication protocol is the same.

Probably as simple as setting just the maximum flow temperature and the minimum return temperature. With those two, the highest power can be delivered, and the difference between the flow and return sets the efficiency.

[RichardL]

6 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

How many people think turning the thermostat up will heat the building faster.

50%

Yes - I know exactly what you mean.

Question
I guess my question should have been - how much education is required for the end user to get their house warm?

If on/off and thermostat (oft used as you point out as an on/off switch) is understood - it should be possible for the heating system to respond - and be seen to respond - when the owner says 'I'm cold' (or hot).

Challenge
The be-seen bit would appear to be the challenge on a slow burn type UFH A2W etc system vs. instant gratification of something being hot to the touch.

The electrical draw is instant and visible on the smart meter - if the heat - the benefit isn't obvious - either as heat or indication its working then its going to feel like its not working.


Most people don't care how heating works - don't/wont care how the newer technologies work -   arguably don't need to care either. 

IMHO, thinking out loud, understanding how it works by the end user should not be a requirement / pre-req to moving off carbon and onto electric. The understanding step needs factoring out.

[ProDave]

2 minutes ago, RichardL said:

Challenge
The be-seen bit would appear to be the challenge on a slow burn type UFH A2W etc system vs. instant gratification of something being hot to the touch.

The electrical draw is instant and visible on the smart meter - if the heat - the benefit isn't obvious - either as heat or indication its working then its going to feel like its not working.


Most people don't care how heating works - don't/wont care how the newer technologies work -   arguably don't need to care either. 

Our previous house has oil fired heating with UFH upstairs and downstairs, individual room thermostats.

 

On more than one occasion in the morning we found a guest room thermostat turned up to 30 degrees, and the window wide open because the room was too hot.

 

My conclusions:

 

They turned the thermostat up a bit, nothing instantly happened so they turned it up higher.  WHY do people think turning the thermostat higher will increase the rate of heat going into the room?  Are they really either thick?  Or too intelligent and believe the heat input may actually be proportional to the difference between actual and set temperature?

 

Later in the night when they started to get too hot, they had clearly lost all confidence in the thermostat, so rather than turn it down, they opened the window. 

[RichardL]

10 minutes ago, ProDave said:

WHY do people think turning the thermostat higher will increase the rate

Change vs. rate of change I suspect is widely not understood - in this scenario and all sorts of economic discussions. reference questions like 'when will inflation go back to normal and prices drop'.

Even if it was learned at school - it goes out the window when you're cold.

I suspect you won't fix that with education - something in the user interface has to change - can't say I know what - but if that can be cracked....

For heating somehow that lack of want for understanding needs factoring out.

Edited April 23, 2023 by RichardL

[ProDave]

2 minutes ago, RichardL said:

something in the user interface has to change - can't say I know what - but if that can be cracked....

Make the thermostat on the wall in a guest room a dummy, and a hidden temperature probe for a real remote thermostat.

[Radian]

1 hour ago, TonyT said:

 

can I please ask how to range rate a boiler, only a term I have heard the past year or so!

 

appreciate it’s different for every make model

You'll need to search for an installation manual for your boiler. Most are easy to find even if decades old.

[JamesPa]

33 minutes ago, ProDave said:

On more than one occasion in the morning we found a guest room thermostat turned up to 30 degrees, and the window wide open because the room was too hot.

 

My conclusions:

 

They turned the thermostat up a bit, nothing instantly happened so they turned it up higher.  WHY do people think turning the thermostat higher will increase the rate of heat going into the room?  Are they really either thick?  Or too intelligent and believe the heat input may actually be proportional to the difference between actual and set temperature?

 

21 minutes ago, ProDave said:

Make the thermostat on the wall in a guest room a dummy, and a hidden temperature probe for a real remote thermostat.

er, same problem I had in a work (community centre) scenario, one group whacks the thermostat up to 30C, the next group, a couple of hours later, turns it down to 10.  As mentioned above I seriously considered installing placebo controls as @ProDave says, but never had the guts to implement it.

 

The thing is, people, in all their forms, are part of the system and we have to accept that.  A bit can be done with education but people will remain people.  

 

Notwithstanding this we need solutions, not perfect ones, just ones which are good enough (or thereabouts).  Otherwise we are reliant on @SteamyTeas hopium or unobtainium to fix climate change, a problem we know we have.

 

That is the purpose behind this post, to discover whether we could, at least for some (I suspect fairly large number of) cases, depart from the perceived wisdom that we have to rip out much of a functioning heating system when fitting an ASHP, however desirable it may be to do so.  The reason for the discussion is that ripping out much of a functioning heating system when fitting an ASHP is simply not a solution that the customer will buy in many, probably most, cases. 

 

My sense remains that we can, maybe not in exactly the way described and certainly not in every case (and possibly not yet in the north, particularly the north east, of the country).  Yet currently the regulation and the installation industry leaves us pretty much no choice, unless we are prepared to DiY it.   

 

Lets keep discussing, but how about some focus on practical solutions which can be built with technology available now or, say, within 12 months?  Its all too easy to find a problem and blame 'the politicians' for not solving it, the real challenge is to find a solution that we can task the politicians with implementing!  The 'hydrogen-ready' mob wont wait, they are coming after the ASHP industry with their 'magic' solution which, conveniently, allows us to keep installing gas boilers whilst relieving many of guilt. 

[SteamyTea]

13 minutes ago, JamesPa said:

problem we know we have

Emphasis is on the wrong word.

 

'problem we know we have'

 

Too many people consider it not a problem. 

Maybe I shall look at the economics of payback periods.

Oh hang on, Stern did that 17 years ago.

May be worth rereading and seeing how it has stood the test of time.

[markocosic]

2 hours ago, JamesPa said:

Someone upthread reports an achieved SCOP of 3 at 55 (versus 3.2 predicted), in a location further north with an earlier model LG HP, suggesting LGs specs aren't that far off

 

The specs on most units are perfectly fine.

 

It's the installed flow temp in operation vs the theoretical weather compensated flow temp that crushes the real world sCOP.

 

Peak at much over 55C and the run costs become materially worse. Conversely drop to peaking at 45C and there's not much in it dropping to peaking at 35C.

 

There was a very good reason that the Swedes, some 40 years ago back in 1983, decreed that new heating systems should operate at a peak of 55C or below.

 

It's now in UK Part L some 40 years later. You can fit gas if you like but you still have to do all the legwork to make a heating system that'll run at 55C or below to be legal.

 

 

Head here and you'll find a bunch of systems that, in spite of operating at least peak temps, fall to achieve the theoretical weather compensated sCOP:

 

https://heatpumpmonitor.org/

 

Heating system design and control shortcomings are the cause; not the heat pumps. Apply the same "MCS accredited garbage" installation quality to high temp systems and you'll have sCOPs around the 2 mark for twice the operating costs as a system with a sCOP of 3.5 (once you factor in the no gas standing charge saving) - which over 10-20 years quickly pays for some upgrades to make it work at a lower temp hence it not being popular 

 

[JamesPa]

49 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

Emphasis is on the wrong word.

 

'problem we know we have'

 

Too many people consider it not a problem. 

That's getting much less true with time, but of course there are still a substantial number of people who, as you say, don't consider it a problem.  

 

My sense is that the biggest issue now is not the people who don't consider it a problem, its the people who don't feel an urgency to do something and/or somehow think magic will fix it and/or certainly aren't prepared to consider changing the way they live or thinking out of the box to help. 

 

That's why I'm suggesting a focus on practical solutions which can be built with technology available now or, say, within 12 months.  I, personally, want to put in a heat pump, but the industry and the regulation wont let me unless I do it all myself.  I cannot be the only person in this situation and there must be a much larger body of people who could easily be persuaded (perhaps when their gas boiler needs replacing) if it were made easier.  But its been made very hard, largely so far as I can see by the 'industry' and the government.  Why and how to fix it is the question, the current system is not working that's for sure.

 

 

Edited April 23, 2023 by JamesPa

[markocosic]

2 hours ago, Iceverge said:

 

Why not an A2A unit. Instant response.  If only they had some less complex controls. 

 

Tado?

 

Most of the apps are better than the IR remotes.

 

Most of the hardwired controls are better too.

 

But yes the £0.20 ones with the £400 A2A units or the £1500 A2A units are naff.

[Iceverge]

The commonality between the failure of people to grasp climate change and ASHP operations is the delayed feedback. 

 

Take an instant feedback system like burning your finger on a candle. Instant result. Well understood.

 

Similarly if it's not instant result but there is a good display of what's happening people understand it. Filling a bath is my example. 

 

ASHP for most individuals have no meaningful instant feedback. How about a face that tells you "hey I'm working on that 22deg you wanted, it'll be another hour mate". 

[markocosic]

1 hour ago, RichardL said:

I guess my question should have been - how much education is required for the end user to get their house warm?

 

Have you met the archetypal Karen? She knows everything and must be obeyed. 

 

Listening is a non-issue for the non-stupid and the under 30s.

 

Karen can't be taught involuntarily though. Karen only learns from Mumsnet and the Daily Mail when Karen can't afford paying the bills associated with being stupid any more. She does the learn; albeit reluctantly.

 

Grandma is easier if you're able to set the controls at 23C and leave them there 24/7/365 on a device that is too small for her to see or for her fingers to touch. IME she also listens more and is more inclined to believe that others know more about this new fangled heating tech that then Karen that's past it / was always a mouth breather but cannot admit as much to herself.

[JamesPa]

6 minutes ago, markocosic said:

Heating system design and control shortcomings are the cause; not the heat pumps. Apply the same "MCS accredited garbage" installation quality to high temp systems and you'll have sCOPs around the 2 mark for twice the operating costs as a system with a sCOP of 3.5 (once you factor in the no gas standing charge saving) - which over 10-20 years quickly pays for some upgrades to make it work at a lower temp hence it not being popular 

So whats the solution then if 'MCS accredited' is 'garbage', bearing in mind a SCOP of 3 is good enough to equal the cost of gas at current prices which are distorted in favour of gas.  Currently 'MCS accredited garbage' is mandated by Government.