Here in the Eastern Highlands, -10 is not uncommon so I sized my ASHP for that. Heat loss at -10 and +20 inside is just over 2kW so at -15 it would still be under 3kW so a 5kW ASHP does the job nicely. I think -18 is the coldest night so far but that is not a sustained cold.
So your heat losses are coming out about twice mine for a similar sized house.
Defrosting is not usually an issue well below 0, there simply is no moisture in the cold air. Defrosting is mostly an issue around and a few degrees above 0.