No deal Brexit impact

[SteamyTea]

13 minutes ago, Ferdinand said:

73% when used by trained healthcare staff.

On a very small, selected sample.

 

This test seems to work best on people that are relatively ill with it already i.e. high load.

 

As much as I like the idea of a very quick test, it needs to be at least 99% accurate.

To put that into perspective, MCS need, for RHI purposes, 99% of the heat load covered.

Or

Would you get in a taxi if there was a 1% chance that it would have an accident, with the outcome unknown.

And this test, at its realistic best, is allowing over a quarter of the positive people getting a negative result.

So like taking a taxi for the 4th time.

Edited December 21, 2020 by SteamyTea

[daiking]

1 hour ago, Ferdinand said:

 

 

I  think that in practice they can do either. There are some emergency get-outs from EU rules, and then enforcement against that being over used takes up to 5-10 years.

 

France banned British beef in I think 1990 or soon after, whilst an EU worldwide ban was not imposed until 1996.  France continued an illegal ban for years after the EU one was lifted. 

 

Obviously sufficient measures to protect French people from BSE in France were not taken (which TBF probably mirrors certain aspects of the early response here too, though it was long after the seriousness of the problem was known).

 

F

 

All of those actions were political.

 

And remember when we were all going to die because we ate British beef? I’m still waiting... Is it any wonder that the experts are discredited by the public?

[Temp]

5 hours ago, Onoff said:

I thought the ban was one way?

 

Lorry drivers don't want to deliver to the UK because they will be stuck here. Thats why supermarkets are predicting a shortage of some imported veg. 

 

[SteamyTea]

Just now, daiking said:

And remember when we were all going to die because we ate British beef? I’m still waiting... Is it any wonder that the experts are discredited by the public?

I remember it all too well, mate of mine is a farmer.

But the science (regarding human health) was patching and quickly discredited.  Did not stop the Red Tops stirring up trouble, and it was a good reason to kick Edwina a bit more.

 

Science is really discredited by schools, they need to make it relevant, or it is just another maths lesson.  It is a shame, as it can be fun.

[daiking]

30 minutes ago, Ferdinand said:

 

No. Disagree.

 

It would be the test that delivers (from your link)

 

- 99.7% correct positive results in heavy viral load.

- 79% when used by lab scientists.

- 73% when used by trained healthcare staff.

- and your 58% with self-trained members of the public !!

 

The Port of Dover and the queue for the  Chunnel are controlled spaces, and the ones we really need to detect are the heavy viral loads.

 

It's not 100%, which is why I think it depends on what they want.

 

Though I do wonder how much variant strain already exists elsewhere eg France as it seems likely that it is flagged here first is just because we are the best at finding it.

https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/21/1015315/the-uk-is-spooking-everyone-with-its-new-covid-19-strain-heres-what-scientists-know/

 

F

 

 

More recently this: https://mobile.twitter.com/deeksj/status/1340975390412685312

 

Hopefully there will be a better write up than just a Twitter thread. 
 

What’s going to be the truth in the end? PCR is too sensitive and LTF not sensitive enough?

[SteamyTea]

1 minute ago, Temp said:

imported veg

Yesterday, there was a trail of collies leading out of Penzance, we have loads, but as they are all Brexiteers down here, they are going to keep them for the fishermen.

 

[epsilonGreedy]

26 minutes ago, daiking said:

 

And remember when we were all going to die because we ate British beef? I’m still waiting... Is it any wonder that the experts are discredited by the public?

 

 

They were genuinely worried at the time. Science had to define a new category of life form for the BSE pathogen namely The Prion. I was working in Paris at the time and living in a type of professional's commune, which gave me the opportunity to ask a Danish research scientist across the dinner table what a Prion was. He grimaced as he formulated a lay answer, "think of it as a self replicating protein never seen by science before". 

[Onoff]

1 hour ago, SteamyTea said:

Yesterday, there was a trail of collies leading out of Penzance

 

 

Lot of sheep to round up?

[SteamyTea]

2 minutes ago, Onoff said:

 

Lot of sheep to round up?

The Fishermen do that, they spend too long at sea.

[Onoff]

3 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

The Fishermen do that, they spend too long at sea.

 

That's coley isn't it?

[SteamyTea]

Just now, Onoff said:

 

That's coley isn't it?

Pronounced Colin, in French.

Why it smells like it does.

[Randomusername]

On 21/12/2020 at 18:07, SteamyTea said:

Pronounced Colin, in French.

Why it smells like it does.

Are you suggesting that people called Colin smell?

?

 

But getting back to the subject, ish, I’m presumably not the only one who is baffled by the fact that only the U.K. is in special quarantine, when it’s been reported that this “new” mutation was first recorded in Brazil back in April?

 

???

[ProDave]

39 minutes ago, Randomusername said:

Are you suggesting that people called Colin smell?

?

 

But getting back to the subject, ish, I’m presumably not the only one who is baffled by the fact that only the U.K. is in special quarantine, when it’s been reported that this “new” mutation was first recorded in Brazil back in April?

 

???

If you like a good conspiracy theory, BoJo had to cancel the Christmas relaxations as he could see it was going to be a disaster but he could not possibly just change his mind so needed something "big" as an excuse.

 

Of course that is almost certainly just speculation.......

[ProDave]

This tells it like it is on "plague Island"   https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/22/worlds-media-ask-how-it-went-so-wrong-for-plague-island-britain-covid

[daiking]

59 minutes ago, ProDave said:

This tells it like it is on "plague Island"   https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/22/worlds-media-ask-how-it-went-so-wrong-for-plague-island-britain-covid

Current estimates suggest over half a million Europeans have been vaccinated.

 

All of them on Plague Island mind you...

[SteamyTea]

39 minutes ago, daiking said:

Current estimates suggest over half a million Europeans have been vaccinated.

 

All of them on Plague Island mind you...

Going to make their numbers look bad on the 2^nd of Jan.

Can we claim to have a World Class plague yet?

[Temp]

Interesting caller to Radio 4 today.

 

She was British married to a Dutch national. Home in Holland but working in the UK on a two year contract. Said she had to be in Holland on 1st Jan to register implying she would loose right to live in Holland with her husband if she wasn't. Very nearly got stuck in the UK due to covid closure of port.

[NSS]

On 21/12/2020 at 16:47, epsilonGreedy said:

 

They were genuinely worried at the time. Science had to define a new category of life form for the BSE pathogen namely The Prion. I was working in Paris at the time and living in a type of professional's commune, which gave me the opportunity to ask a Danish research scientist across the dinner table what a Prion was. He grimaced as he formulated a lay answer, "think of it as a self replicating protein never seen by science before". 

 

Utter rubbish. BSE was/is the bovine equivalent of CJD, the latter (and the prions that cause it) having been known of long before the BSE/vCJD scandal. Prions are abnormal, mutated proteins that accumulate in the brain and invariably result in fatality, usually within 12 months of the onset of symptoms. They also make Covid positively easy to deal with as the normal extremes of heat or radiation typically used to eliminate bacteria/viruses have no effect, and nor do antibiotics or antiviral treatments. It's why a number of kids who received human growth hormone injections in the 70's and 80's went on to contract CJD. The hGH was extracted from pituitary glands harvested from human corpses. Unfortunately some of those they were harvested from had died with CJD. Once the prion found its way into the equipment used to extract the growth hormone it infected every subsequent batch as the sterilisation process failed to destroy it. 

[daiking]

2 hours ago, SteamyTea said:

Going to make their numbers look bad on the 2^nd of Jan.

Can we claim to have a World Class plague yet?

Did I miss the memo? Is the UK leaving Europe? 
 

Narrator: No it’s not.

[daiking]

1 hour ago, Temp said:

Interesting caller to Radio 4 today.

 

She was British married to a Dutch national. Home in Holland but working in the UK on a two year contract. Said she had to be in Holland on 1st Jan to register implying she would loose right to live in Holland with her husband if she wasn't. Very nearly got stuck in the UK due to covid closure of port.

 

Edited December 22, 2020 by daiking

[ToughButterCup]

10 hours ago, NSS said:

... It's why a number of kids who received human growth hormone injections in the 70's and 80's went on to contract CJD. The hGH was extracted from pituitary glands harvested from human corpses. Unfortunately some of those they were harvested from had died with CJD. Once the prion found its way into the equipment used to extract the growth hormone it infected every subsequent batch as the sterilisation process failed to destroy it. 

 

Ooooffffff.... that had passed me by.

Reference please if its not to onerous a job. Thanks.

Ian

[epsilonGreedy]

12 hours ago, NSS said:

Utter rubbish.

 

 

Let's examine that claim!

 

12 hours ago, NSS said:

BSE was/is the bovine equivalent of CJD, the latter (and the prions that cause it) having been known of long before the BSE/vCJD scandal.

 

 

First it was called "new variant" CJD to distinguish it from the previously documented version of the disease CJD. CJD affected the elderly as a form of slow progressive loss of brain function, vCJD attacked the brains of young people rapidly hence the scientific interest in the new aggressive protein type in the brain. The first British death was aged 19 in 1995.

 

The Prion was first named in 1982 when a researcher decided he was looking at something new. It was more than a regular protein but could not be classified within previous defined groups of lifeform i.e. it was not animal, vegetable, bacterial or a virus. There was ramp up of scientific research into the prion in the early 90's but the first accepted model of how these nasty proteins could self replicate was not published until 1996. At this point in 1996 the scientific community decided a new type of life form had been discovered.

 

What did I say:

 

On 21/12/2020 at 16:47, epsilonGreedy said:

They were genuinely worried at the time.

 

 

The UK slaughtered 4 million cattle after 10,000 BSE cases. Evidently the Government was worried. = TRUE

 

On 21/12/2020 at 16:47, epsilonGreedy said:

Science had to define a new category of life form for the BSE pathogen namely The Prion.

 

 

In 1982 the prion was named for a newly discovered category of protein that seemed to sit on the boundary of biochemistry and lifeform. In 1996 after 14 years of continued research science decided the Prion could be named as a new lifeform = TRUE

 

On 21/12/2020 at 16:47, epsilonGreedy said:

I was working in Paris at the time and living in a type of professional's commune, which gave me the opportunity to ask a Danish research scientist across the dinner table what a Prion was. He grimaced as he formulated a lay answer, "think of it as a self replicating protein never seen by science before".

 

 

I was working in Paris in 1996 when I was able to ask what a Prion was. His lay explanation to me was valid in 1996 and is valid today. = TRUE

 

Why would you choose to dispute my post and make yourself look so daft as a consequence?

Edited December 23, 2020 by epsilonGreedy

[NSS]

6 hours ago, epsilonGreedy said:

Why would you choose to dispute my post and make yourself look so daft as a consequence?

 

My wife was one of the kids it was injected into, in her case twice a week for 7 years. I've read an awful lot on the subject, not least all the legal submissions from experts because she was involved in the group action that was brought over the scandal.

 

Still, I bow to the superior knowledge you acquired across a dinner table over 20 years ago. 

[NSS]

9 hours ago, ToughButterCup said:

 

Ooooffffff.... that had passed me by.

Reference please if its not to onerous a job. Thanks.

Ian

 

Not sure how much of that stuff would have found its way online (the legal stuff was mid-90's). I think I still have a box of papers somewhere but not sure I fancy trawling through them again, even if I could find them. The following paragraph is however from a short piece on the lead law firms site.

 

"After the first death here, the programme was immediately stopped following consultation among the clinicians involved, and Hgh was replaced by a synthetic version. The human based product had been prepared from pituitary glands recovered from cadavers - pituitaries were routinely collected at post-mortem examination in mortuaries and it is estimated that over 960,000 pituitaries were harvested to make Hgh and/or other pituitary derived hormone treatments."

 

To add a little more background, mortuary technicians were paid 20p for each pituitary gland (apparently removed without any permissions from next of kin). Some of these mortuaries received cadavers of residents from what were then known as mental institutions. Typically the glands were stored in glass jars for weeks/months until collected by the MRC. In crude terms, we were told the glands were then "boiled up in a huge vat" to extract the hGH. Sterilisation practice at the time would have had no effect on the CJD prion and hence each new batch was to a lesser or greater degree contaminated by any affected glands in previous batches, regardless of whether the batch being processed contained any infected glands.

I understand that at least 80 of the approximately 1,900 kids treated with hGH have since gone on to die from CJD (though one report I read suggested it could be as many as 129). Of course, many of the others died of other causes (one of the reasons it was given was to replace hGH lost when treating pituitary gland cancer that subsequently killed them anyway), and the longest gestation thus far has been 38 years after treatment.

 

Mrs NSS was one of those treated very early on in the programme and all the evidence points to her treatment having been completed around two months before the first contamination is believed to have taken place. She is one of the lucky ones.

 

Ironically, she was the only patient in the UK to receive hGH that was not growth hormone deficient (either naturally or as a result of radiotherapy). She had a much more rare growth disorder but her consultant at GOSH thought it worth trying hGH. It had zero impact and she is in fact a little smaller than average for women with her syndrome.

Edited December 23, 2020 by NSS

[ProDave]

Most news outlets are now saying a deal is imminent, so it looks like this thread can stand down.

 

That will be a big relief to me as someone expecting to order some foreign windows very shortly.