No deal Brexit impact

[Bitpipe]

9 minutes ago, daiking said:

 

unqualified levels of shithousery by Her Maj's Govt 

 

You must admit, they are giving it their best shot.

[daiking]

Just now, Bitpipe said:

 

You must admit, they are giving it their best shot.

 

You really think that?

 

They are just woefully incompetent. The are not dismantling the state and unaccountably oppressing late sections of the population. 

[Declan52]

7 minutes ago, Ferdinand said:

 

Do you have the numbers for where NI sales outside NI go? How much goes to ROI / EU?

 

IIRC there is now quite a significant artisan and on-farm food businesses.

 

F

 

The agri good sector in Ireland as a whole supplies the UK with most of its meat, veg, milk etc. I don't have the numbers but it's big business and will cause a lot of head ache for these businessess if the sea border puts any obstacles in the way of trading with the UK . One of my friends has a fairly large dairy farm and all his milk gets sent to the Republic of Ireland to get processed. Lots of meat products are processed the same. If they start loosing money then a lot of political parties here will be in serious trouble the next election.

[SteamyTea]

8 minutes ago, daiking said:

 

You're right, social science is not your field. 

Because it is not a science, and they speak complete nonsense, but think they know the answer to everything.

[Bitpipe]

6 minutes ago, daiking said:

 

You really think that?

 

They are just woefully incompetent. The are not dismantling the state and unaccountably oppressing late sections of the population. 

 

Not yet maybe but they are determined to remove any prospect of judicial review of their actions in retaliation of the poroguation of parliament last year that was found to be unlawful by the UK Supreme Court. 

 

And always I fear with Boris that the veneer of incompetence hides something more unpleasant.

[daiking]

51 minutes ago, Declan52 said:

If Brexit has an impact on the farming community here then the DUP are in serious trouble. They hold the ear of most of this party and once their livelihoods start to be negatively impacted then their dead in the water. This will then push the border poll issue front and center. As you have said I don't think it would win today but in the future if Brexit turns out to be a disaster for the NI population then the chances of a United Ireland will massively increase.

 

I was brought up in Wales so I am sympathetic to the various strands of Celtic ethno-nationalism but after living in England for 20+ years, I'm inclined to (expletive deleted) them all off. 

 

The Scot's plans for financial independence look ropey at best, how easily could Rep of Ireland and Northern Ireland merge? I suppose the most visible affect for many will be personal tax rates and the provision of healthcare. 

[Bitpipe]

8 minutes ago, Declan52 said:

The agri good sector in Ireland as a whole supplies the UK with most of its meat, veg, milk etc. I don't have the numbers but it's big business and will cause a lot of head ache for these businessess if the sea border puts any obstacles in the way of trading with the UK . One of my friends has a fairly large dairy farm and all his milk gets sent to the Republic of Ireland to get processed. Lots of meat products are processed the same. If they start loosing money then a lot of political parties here will be in serious trouble the next election.

 

To quote Big Ian, I am British but my cows are Irish.

[ToughButterCup]

1 hour ago, Ferdinand said:

I think your objectification / instantiation of "business" is a category error there. JHJ was referring to the process or practice, not the object.

...

 

At last .... Excellent.

Quote

“business will succeed despite what politicians do!”.

 

How is the word business to be understood: process or object? And does the distinction matter in the context of JHJ being quoted - or misquoted ?

 

Arguably, it's the quotation or misquotation of the sound bite / key phrase that is the most important,

Rephrasing the quotation to illustrate the sense referred to in your post @Ferdinand;

The processes of business  (trade) will succeed despite what politicians do.  

Can that be true? We were prevented from trading with the Eastern Bloc before the Wall came down in 1989.  (COCOM) There have been many such interruptions to business processes since.

 

I think that both business processes and business entities (objects) cannot always succeed  [despite what politician do] . Because there is ample evidence of both   business processes ( 'class' in programming terms) and entites  failing regulalry.

 

Edited December 11, 2020 by ToughButterCup

[daiking]

1 minute ago, Bitpipe said:

 

Not yet maybe but they are determined to remove any prospect of judicial review of their actions in retaliation of the poroguation of parliament last year that was found to be unlawful by the UK Supreme Court. 

 

And always I fear with Boris that the veneer of incompetence hides something more unpleasant.

 

I'm so glad Parliament was recalled and all these Brexit issues were resolved. 

 

I'm also far more concerned about the Coronavirus legislation imposed this year than the proroguing of parliament last year and its funny how someone who has grown up in Northern Ireland during the 80s/90s now gets sniffy about *checks notes* arcane legal interpretations in Parliament. As I recall 2 previous courts had called either way on the matter. You must have a much greater appreciation of state oppression than most of us can imagine.

[Dave Jones]

4 hours ago, SteamyTea said:

This is my opinion as social science is not my fields (though I had to study it, and wasted a year with social scientists once).

Nearly everything in life is sculpted by others expectations, this is something the media can play on as it is easy to do so.  There is no need to show a genuine cause and effect as, like astrology, there is no burden of proof.  The 'proof' is in the number, say enough things, to enough people, and some people will agree.

Now that has happened in the last 40 years or so in the UK is that we have had a decline in manual jobs because of globalisation.  This has affected some people much more than others.

Now if you are affected, or live in a community that is affected, then it is easy to blame the people that have got the jobs, or the people that caused them to go away.

It is also hard to see an individual who makes, what seems to be, a disproportionate amount of salary, from doing a simple task.

It is also hard to see people who are long term unemployed.

It is this unbalance in out economy that people should really be blaming, and trying to rectify, but it is much easier to blame others, while doing nothing.

When a chance to for change does come along, especially when an emotional argument, not based in fact, is used, people get swayed.  A truly rational person looks at the facts presented, not how they are presented.

Very few people are truly rational.

Just changing one word for another, can make a huge difference.

"You will be better off"

"You could be better off"

The above appealed to Brexeteers.

"You know what you can have"

"You know what you can loose"

The above appealed to  Leavers.

 

 

nothing to do  with any of that 6th form nonsense.

 

Blair decided to throw open the gates to mass immigration without ever asking for a mandate. 

 

The results of this is now being reaped and jolly good it is too.

 

 

 

It's all too delicious really.

 

 

[SteamyTea]

23 minutes ago, Dave Jones said:

Blair decided to throw open the gates to mass immigration without ever asking for a mandate. 

I am going to rise to this.

Do you, Dave Jones, think that immigrant, on mass, cost the country money?

 

Blair also banned Fox Hunting, and dragged us into an unnecessary war.  I am not fan, and never was, of Blair.

Edited December 11, 2020 by SteamyTea

[Ferdinand]

1 hour ago, ToughButterCup said:

 

At last .... Excellent.

 

How is the word business to be understood: process or object? And does the distinction matter in the context of JHJ being quoted - or misquoted ?

 

Arguably, it's the quotation or misquotation of the sound bite / key phrase that is the most important,

Rephrasing the quotation to illustrate the sense referred to in your post @Ferdinand;

The processes of business  (trade) will succeed despite what politicians do.  

Can that be true? We were prevented from trading with the Eastern Bloc before the Wall came down in 1989.  (COCOM) There have been many such interruptions to business processes since.

 

I think that both business processes and business entities (objects) cannot always succeed  [despite what politician do] . Because there is ample evidence of both   business processes ( 'class' in programming terms) and entites  failing regulalry.

 

 

Attempts to prevent trade did not work - and they were imo trying to control it not prevent it. Even Erich Honecker and the Stasi did not succeed.

 

The oak barleytwist chandelier, and its smaller mate, that I am currently trying to sell came back from Hungary in 1985 with my parents after mum's Conductive Education Course. And Praktika cameras (DDR) were on sale throughout the COMECON period. And at some stage Pentacon lenses. And Ladas, and all the other auto brands. So clearly trade was not prevented.

 

As for in-country business, here's an article from the New York Times in 1975 about the Black Markets in Communist Countries.

https://www.nytimes.com/1975/09/09/archives/black-markets-bloom-in-eastern-europe-behind-facade-of-straitlaced.html

 

Including this interesting quote from an Economist in one of them:

Quote

 

Let us be honest,” an economist in one Communist country said. “The black market could be rigorously suppressed, but what would we have? As it is, they are immoral, but they are real, free‐markets. They let people get things that wouldn't otherwise be available, and they soak up the excess cash that's always floating around the consumers of the socialist world. That's not a bad thing.”

The enormous police establishments of Eastern Europe are obviously fully aware of the black market operations all around them but generally choose to ignore them. Statistics are not made public, but arrests seem to be rare.

 

 

On the other, I think "business processes" is another category error by referring to an individual instance not the class. (In IT terms).

 

"Business" here imo refers more to any one of the infinite universe of possible business, where the one (or many) selected are the ones that succeed in teh prevailing circumstances. The point is that if one doesn't succeed, another one will - you can say that say a price change is either a change of a parameter in a process instance, or a new process instance with the new price.

 

There even existed private farms (in very small numbers) in Cuba right throughout his tyranny. I heard a BBC WS item once. Plus the black market of course.

 

Perhaps I could extend the analogy to markets -  where they are suppressed free markets turn into black markets, and they can't be stopped.

 

Ferdinand

 

 

[Ferdinand]

47 minutes ago, Declan52 said:

The agri good sector in Ireland as a whole supplies the UK with most of its meat, veg, milk etc. I don't have the numbers but it's big business and will cause a lot of head ache for these businessess if the sea border puts any obstacles in the way of trading with the UK . One of my friends has a fairly large dairy farm and all his milk gets sent to the Republic of Ireland to get processed. Lots of meat products are processed the same. If they start loosing money then a lot of political parties here will be in serious trouble the next election.

 

Thanks.

 

[SteamyTea]

2 minutes ago, Ferdinand said:

The oak barleytwist chandelier, and its smaller mate, that I am currently trying to sell came back from Hungary in 1985 with my parents after mum's Conductive Education Course. And Praktika cameras (DDR) were on sale throughout the COMECON period. And at some stage Pentacon lenses. And Ladas, and all the other auto brands. So clearly trade was not prevented.

I seem to remember that in the early 80's the UK sold something to Romania, in return we got tinned tomatoes.  They ended up cost 9p/tin, and where very good.  Not point buying any other really.

Not sure what we sold, think it may have been a ship.

[Declan52]

Right guys this thread is slowly slipping again into more and more personal areas. Keep it on track with facts and figures and debate away till your hearts content. But if it keeps getting personal then this thread will be closed. 

[ToughButterCup]

1 hour ago, Ferdinand said:

Attempts to prevent trade did not work - and they were imo trying to control it not prevent it. Even Erich Honecker and the Stasi did not succeed.

...

 

They did - mostly - prevent it.  It was my job in the 1980s Berlin  to try to find a way of threading trade through a needle called COCOM.  I almost always failed unless we (the company) broke the law.

 

But that apart, the points you make are a perfect example of the need to qualify a sound bite. Its possible to interpret @joe90's quote  in several ways - and so to contest it in as many. It can be seen as fallacious - and so unhelpful -  or as ' the man in the street ' might interpret it.  Arguably , the way the quote was intended. My point is that many people stop thinking when they can latch on to what appears to be an easy dopamine hit. 

Think Boris. He deals out dopamine in buckets, gets swallowed, and hey presto, the removal van calls.

[Ferdinand]

I think we are done on that one.

???

 

[Temp]

11 hours ago, Ferdinand said:

Surely Irish online purchasers from the UK already face VAT, so it won't increase - rather substitute?

 

Correct. They should pay Irish VAT instead of UK VAT.... if the UK company has set up their website to handle exports free of VAT. Not sure how eBay will work. Many are not vat registered.

[Temp]

The Guardian: Brexit stockpiling causing 10-mile tailbacks in Calais...
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/12/brexit-stockpiling-causing-10-mile-tailbacks-calais

 

"The delays in crossing the Channel are causing acute problems in the UK. Honda and Jaguar have had to halt production temporarily because of parts shortages, and it emerged on Friday that Ikea had been besieged by complaints because of what it called “operational challenges” as shipments of its flatpack furniture are held up at clogged ports."

 

 

[LA3222]

It will get a lot worse before it gets better. The EU will do nothing to ease congestion in the hopes it create enough domestic pressure on Boris Johnson to leverage him back to the negotiating table. This is bad because if that happens the deal will not be good as the EU will see themselves holding the trump cards.

 

Personally I think if they want to leverage imports/exports to create pressure then the UK should leverage paying the so called divorce bill.  Refuse to pay that.

 

If it gets worse I'd rather see the country rough it out as industry will innovate and pivot how they do business to overcome such challenges. Likewise the Government agencies will get better at it - eventually?‍♂️

[Onoff]

2 hours ago, Temp said:

The Guardian: Brexit stockpiling causing 10-mile tailbacks in Calais...
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/12/brexit-stockpiling-causing-10-mile-tailbacks-calais

 

"The delays in crossing the Channel are causing acute problems in the UK. Honda and Jaguar have had to halt production temporarily because of parts shortages, and it emerged on Friday that Ikea had been besieged by complaints because of what it called “operational challenges” as shipments of its flatpack furniture are held up at clogged ports."

 

 

 

At least there'll be more cheap labour here to unpack the lorries when they get here. Probably will have hitched a lift on the same lorry in all the confusion!

[pdf27]

7 hours ago, LA3222 said:

If it gets worse I'd rather see the country rough it out as industry will innovate and pivot how they do business to overcome such challenges. Likewise the Government agencies will get better at it - eventually?‍♂️

Sadly the evidence of the past year suggests that they won't get any better, they'll just borrow a vast amount of money and funnel as much as possible of it to their mates, irrespective of if they know anything about the subject in question.

[SteamyTea]

18 minutes ago, pdf27 said:

irrespective of if they know anything about the subject in question

That's interesting.

I just heard that the government is going to invest money into carbon capture and storage.  But two weeks ago they said that, within a decade, all housing will be powered by off shore wind turbines.

So two policies, one that captures something the other does not produce.

[Temp]

Construction timber shortage.. mostly due to the pandemic and demand elsewhere..

 

https://www.theconstructionindex.co.uk/news/view/timber-industry-warns-of-continuing-shortages

[joe90]

Just watched Andrew Marr and he started the programme by saying he would look at the impact of no deal on both sides but despite talks of taffiffs being bad for the UK no mention of the tariffs to be paid by the EU ?.