No deal Brexit impact

[Temp]

9 hours ago, Ferdinand said:

Bit naughty of the mail only to mention the short term 3 month visas and full residence visas, and not to mention that visas allowing longer term stays are available as an annual thing costing approximately £70 or 20p per day.

 

Got a link to that? My neighbour has holiday home in France.

[Onoff]

Won't the holiday home thing only affect a small percentage.....so who gives a sh!t? ?

[daiking]

26 minutes ago, Onoff said:

Won't the holiday home thing only affect a small percentage.....so who gives a sh!t? ?

Pretty much

[Ferdinand]

8 hours ago, Temp said:

 

Got a link to that? My neighbour has holiday home in France.

 

I think these are official links.

 

This is one of the pages I saw, and it says it is official. Seem to be facilities to extend beyond one year one you have arrived.

https://france-visas.gouv.fr/en_US/web/france-visas/long-stay-visa

 

And

https://france-visas.gouv.fr/en_US/web/france-visas/tourist-or-private-visit

 

There is a wizard on the Fr Embassy site to explore types of visa, which also mentions Long Stay Visa.

https://uk.ambafrance.org/Applying-for-a-French-visa-in-the-United-Kingdom

 

I tried to pretend I was applying for one to find out more, but it told me I didn't need one (presumably until the end of the year).

 

The cost number came from a description elsewhere, as the price of the Visa - not the supporting docs if any required.

 

(Update: Should have said before that my comments in thread above relate to France).

 

Ferdinand

 

 

 

[dpmiller]

Really dislike the ads running on the radio over here at the moment- "do business with the rest of the UK? find out what you have to do NOW"

 

b'stards.

[Bitpipe]

16 hours ago, Ferdinand said:

 

Not sure on that. Monseiur Macron seems to be jumping up and down like a Jack-in-the-Box.

 

I'm not totally convinced by his strategy - "If you don't give me all the fishing rights I want, I'll exercise a veto and protect my fishermen by making sure they don't get anything at all."

 

Hmmm.

 

Macron is up for election next year and the costal regions are fertile territory for the very right wing parties so he needs their support at best and at worst not their outright hostility.

 

So a no deal position works well for him at present. I suppose the thinking is that permanently locking in a bad deal is less preferable than a few months of disruption (for which he can compensate them) and then doing a quieter deal next year once both sides have felt the actual pain of what it means but also are not up against artificial deadlines and constant scrutiny to reach agreement.

 

I think the same logic applies to the UK Govt, they will look 'strong' in accepting no deal and will hope the immediate economic impact gets lost in the noise of Covid. I would guess the UK based automotive and aviation sectors will not do anything too hasty straight away in anticipation of resolution next year but if it drags on then they will start to up sticks.

 

Even with the proposed thin deal, there will be considerable freight disruption due to the exit from the single market and customs union and the imposition of new and untested customs systems and checks.

 

 

 

[Ferdinand]

28 minutes ago, Bitpipe said:

 

Macron is up for election next year and the costal regions are fertile territory for the very right wing parties so he needs their support at best and at worst not their outright hostility.

 

So a no deal position works well for him at present. I suppose the thinking is that permanently locking in a bad deal is less preferable than a few months of disruption (for which he can compensate them) and then doing a quieter deal next year once both sides have felt the actual pain of what it means but also are not up against artificial deadlines and constant scrutiny to reach agreement.

 

I think the same logic applies to the UK Govt, they will look 'strong' in accepting no deal and will hope the immediate economic impact gets lost in the noise of Covid. I would guess the UK based automotive and aviation sectors will not do anything too hasty straight away in anticipation of resolution next year but if it drags on then they will start to up sticks.

 

Even with the proposed thin deal, there will be considerable freight disruption due to the exit from the single market and customs union and the imposition of new and untested customs systems and checks.

 

 

 

 

Good thoughts.

 

I think I still expect an agreement.

 

We will see.

[Temp]

Rush to deport before Brexit makes it harder..

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/dec/06/uk-races-to-deport-asylum-seekers-ahead-of-brexit

 

The flights are operating under the EU’s Dublin convention legislation that allows states to return people to an EU country where they have already made an asylum claim – a right the UK retains during the Brexit transition period.

Soon, unless another transfer arrangement is agreed with the EU, the UK will no longer be able to forcibly deport asylum seekers who have passed through other EU countries.

[Bitpipe]

3 hours ago, Ferdinand said:

 

Good thoughts.

 

I think I still expect an agreement.

 

We will see.

 

I agree but even a deal at this stage will be very thin wrt trade and there will still be considerable short term disruption and friction at border points which I suspect will surprise the majority of the UK public.

 

I also think it will take 5 or so years for Brexit to properly settle once the rhetoric has blown over and the respective parties realise what they really need from each other and what they can do without. Financial services also seem likely to continue to rebalance towards Europe so the City will slowly diminish over time unless it can find an alternative activity source.

 

I would also be very surprised if any other nation decides to leave the EU as even with Poland and Hungary pushing back against more liberal expectations, the reality is that with a now protectionist US (Biden says he will continue Trump's America First strategy albeit more sensibly) and China, belonging to a bigger club makes a lot of sense. EU sentiment is also at an all time high in Europe post Covid.

 

 

 

[Galileo]

As an atheist I'm not much for ghosts, gods and faith, so I find it interesting that after 17 pages not a single sourced tangible benefit of faith driven Brexit has been mentioned.

Edited December 6, 2020 by Galileo

[daiking]

3 minutes ago, Galileo said:

As an atheist I'm not much for ghosts, gods and faith, so I find it interesting that after 17 pages not a single sourced tangible benefit of Brexit has been mentioned.

https://www.kentonline.co.uk/dover/news/brexit-will-spark-rise-in-dogging-213622/

[Galileo]

Just now, daiking said:

https://www.kentonline.co.uk/dover/news/brexit-will-spark-rise-in-dogging-213622/

 

Okay, pretty niche, but fair play to you and the dogging community for finding a benefit.

[daiking]

4 minutes ago, Galileo said:

 

Okay, pretty niche, but fair play to you and the dogging community for finding a benefit.

You take what you can get when you’re just a poor boy from a poor family.

[Temp]

I can't imagine a worse place to be than a lay-by in Kent after Brexit...

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/nov/12/post-brexit-lorry-queues-could-make-kent-toilet-of-england

 

"Post-Brexit lorry queues could make Kent 'toilet of England'"

 

 

[epsilonGreedy]

13 hours ago, Ferdinand said:

 

Good thoughts.

 

I think I still expect an agreement.

 

We will see.

My guess is that we will "leave" without a deal because a further official extension of the transition period would damage Boris's reputation in the pro Brexit camp. However both sides will agree not to change anything for another year while the fine details of Brexit are sorted out. 

[Temp]

There is some speculation that a deal has just been agreed on fishing. Some reports say it has, other that it hasn't. Farage is already saying e thinks Boris may have given in on the issue.

 

I'm waiting to hear if any deal has been done on services. The UK has run down manufacturing and built up the service industry in recent decades and I can't see Brexit helping manufacturing unless we get an exceptionally good deal. That really makes our economy more dependant on services.

[joe90]

With regard fishing, Jeremy Vine had a Cornish fisherman on lunchtime and he said he agrees with a level playing field but the French have access to 80% of fish and can fish up to 6 miles of our coast, but we are entitled to 8% of fish but can only go within 12 miles of the French coast and that’s not a level playing field.

 

Edited December 7, 2020 by joe90

[joe90]

Also it’s always reported we will have to pay tariffs if there is no deal and no mention that we will also charge tariffs and as we import more than export so we have a net gain!

[ProDave]

19 minutes ago, joe90 said:

Also it’s always reported we will have to pay tariffs if there is no deal and no mention that we will also charge tariffs and as we import more than export so we have a net gain!

My brain works at domestic level finances. But tell me what would be wrong with this:

 

The Government collects tariffs at WTO rates on all that we export.

 

Someone pays tariffs on all that we import. Is that the importer or the government?  I always beliveed it was the importer?

 

So could the government not spend some / all of what it collects on exports to give as a subsidy to importers to offset the tariffs they pay to effectively neutralise them?

 

I must be missing something blindingly obvious that would make that not work?

[Bitpipe]

18 minutes ago, ProDave said:

My brain works at domestic level finances. But tell me what would be wrong with this:

 

The Government collects tariffs at WTO rates on all that we export.

 

Someone pays tariffs on all that we import. Is that the importer or the government?  I always beliveed it was the importer?

 

So could the government not spend some / all of what it collects on exports to give as a subsidy to importers to offset the tariffs they pay to effectively neutralise them?

 

I must be missing something blindingly obvious that would make that not work?

 

41 minutes ago, joe90 said:

Also it’s always reported we will have to pay tariffs if there is no deal and no mention that we will also charge tariffs and as we import more than export so we have a net gain!

 

As recently experienced in the US, tariffs are paid by the importer so will ultimately pass down to the consumer or impact importer profitability (and that in the value chain).

 

The logic is that the importer will source alternative tariff free options (hopefully domestic) to have a cheaper product, however the cheapest option may still be the tariffed one or it may not be available or to the required quality. 

 

The Govt does benefit ultimately but it causes considerable friction in the value chain and can lead to sellers deciding to avoid a certain market or importers deciding not to offer certain goods - this will reduce profit and corp tax take and potentially VAT if the market shrinks. Also Govt subsidising specific uncompetitive industry invokes state aid rules which also incur tariffs at the other end.

 

The tariff exists to give domestic producers (or those inside the free trade agreement block) an advantage and compensate ostensibly cheaper products that are not made to same standard (inc. environmental or labour standards) or are 'dumped' into other markets and artificially depress prices (Chinese steel was a recent example).

 

There is a very good reason countries put huge effort into creating free trade agreements - but even these mostly focus on harmonising type approval etc and removing other barriers to trade as tariffs are seen as quite blunt tools.

 

All friction (whether tariff or regulatory) makes the modern supply chain, where for example a car engine may move between multiple  international sites to be completed, uneconomic. You also get into rules of origin determination etc.

 

All pretty complicated and not easily reduced to a tabloid soundbite.

Edited December 7, 2020 by Bitpipe

[ProDave]

And all totally avoidable.

 

What does not get much air time on the news is before the referendum a whole string of politicians stood up and told us we would retain a free trade agreement with the EU.  IF as looks increasingly likely that does not turn out the be what we get, will people be complaining, protesting on the street about how we were lied to?  if not WHY NOT?

[Bitpipe]

47 minutes ago, joe90 said:

With regard fishing, Jeremy Vine had a Cornish fisherman on lunchtime and he said he agrees with a level playing field but the French have access to 80% of fish and can fish up to 6 miles of our coast, but we are entitled to 8% of fish but can only go within 12 miles of the French coast and that’s not a level playing field.

 

 

Fish are an emotive but economically irrelevant (0.02% of UK GDP) concern. I'm not saying the current situation is necessarily equitable but it's been somewhat hijacked as an easy to understand issue and largely ignores many other reasons the UK fishing industry is in the state it is in. Also the majority of UK caught fish is sold to EU markets as it's not what we like to eat (herring vs cod.)

 

Level playing field really applies to everything else we farm and make and want to export. 

 

Again, taking the US example, you can create cheap meat if you have low animal welfare standards (even if you address the health impacts by dipping in chlorine or using lots of antibiotics), or looking to other regions, cheap manufactured goods if you allow modern slavery, child labour and low environmental and welfare standards.

 

If you're selling into a market that has much higher equivalent standards then they will not give you this advantage otherwise it's unfair own manufacturers who need to comply with stricter rules and incur higher cost as a result.

 

 

[Bitpipe]

7 minutes ago, ProDave said:

And all totally avoidable.

 

What does not get much air time on the news is before the referendum a whole string of politicians stood up and told us we would retain a free trade agreement with the EU.  IF as looks increasingly likely that does not turn out the be what we get, will people be complaining, protesting on the street about how we were lied to?  if not WHY NOT?

 

 

It was enticing to believe that we could have all of the existing benefits with none of the cost or obligations - if it were true, why wouldn't you support it?

 

Sadly it was not true. 

 

I'm not saying there was no reason to vote for Brexit but the 'we hold all the cards' and 'easiest deal in human history' was hyperbole.

Edited December 7, 2020 by Bitpipe

[Dave Jones]

6 minutes ago, ProDave said:

And all totally avoidable.

 

What does not get much air time on the news is before the referendum a whole string of politicians stood up and told us we would retain a free trade agreement with the EU.  IF as looks increasingly likely that does not turn out the be what we get, will people be complaining, protesting on the street about how we were lied to?  if not WHY NOT?

 

no.

 

The EU have treated us with contempt from day1 and we all know it.

[Bitpipe]

17 hours ago, epsilonGreedy said:

My guess is that we will "leave" without a deal because a further official extension of the transition period would damage Boris's reputation in the pro Brexit camp. However both sides will agree not to change anything for another year while the fine details of Brexit are sorted out. 

 

i tend to agree but expect the real deal to happen early next year when no-ones looking.

 

Sunday Times had a good article on the Boris politics of this  - No deal empowers Labour and screws business (even if temporary) but keeps his ERG team on board. A deal does the opposite and also has the blowback if things are still crap as deal is so 'thin'