With the US/Israel's illegal war in Iran, I'm getting concerned that they are going to create a potentially massive economic shock and we are going to see rampant inflation again like during COVID.  What are others anticipating?

Better to invest the same amount of cash in defense and medical shares.

Stock piling is seldom a good idea.

It ends up being  in the way, at risk of damage from operations and the weather, and needing double handling.

 

Nearer to the time of need, ask the BM if any increases are forecast, and maybe avoid 10% cost and store for a few weeks.

But I did this recently with insulation. And we had to shift it to suit a change in plan. The handling cost prob equalled the 10% saving.

 

Then there is cashflow. The VAT cost is sitting there needlessly.

 

Spend your time in saving material altogether, through design reviews and planning.

 

I hope nobody goes and buys up all the loo rolls again……

Just now, Nickfromwales said:

I hope nobody goes and buys up all the loo rolls again……

😂 I'm not sure what people were thinking. 

Just fill the car or van up more often so dont NEED fuel when a massive queue. Maybe every half tank. 

The US dictator will lose interest in Iran quickly - he doesn’t have much of an attention span.

1 minute ago, Alan Ambrose said:

The US dictator will lose interest in Iran quickly - he doesn’t have much of an attention span.

Lets hope so.

4 hours ago, flanagaj said:

With the US/Israel's illegal war in Iran, I'm getting concerned that they are going to create a potentially massive economic shock and we are going to see rampant inflation again like during COVID.  What are others anticipating?

 

I lean towards Trump getting bored and declaring victory in the next week or two and things will become more normal (possibly with occasional lash-outs by Iran). In which case doing anything as a kneejerk reaction is a bad idea.

 

If that doesn't happen and instead Trump decides to send in ground troops then the global economy is in a world of hurt. The impacts of that will likely be different from COVID so things that might have worked during COVID likely won't work here.

 

My thought is to focus on being prepared. Know the different suppliers of things, monitor the pricing, know what you will do if something is unavailable. Basically plan for contingencies and be ready to act if something you need near term is becoming difficult to source (or is being offered at a big discount due to a cancelled project). But I would think that panic buying anything is just as likely to go wrong than right.

4 hours ago, flanagaj said:

With the US/Israel's illegal war in Iran, I'm getting concerned that they are going to create a potentially massive economic shock and we are going to see rampant inflation again like during COVID.  What are others anticipating?

We bought loads at the start of COVID, boiler, solar, cylinder, MVHR, all our floor insulation etc. Most came from sales prior to shutting down for lockdown. But it's sensible, if you know what you need, to look out for seasonal sales anyway.

46 minutes ago, Alan Ambrose said:

The US dictator will lose interest in Iran quickly - he doesn’t have much of an attention span.

They’re more likely to run out of things to fire at ‘the enemy’, at the rate that they’re going through munitions.

Regardless of political leanings I think we can all agree the world is just going to be more like this for the foreseeable. I think globalisation peaked before covid. Probably doesn't hurt to be more prepared with backup suppliers/materials/options. Hopefully war is all over soon I think Iran are about finished now, probably down to 10s of missiles fired per day from 1000s at the start. 

9 minutes ago, Nickfromwales said:

They’re more likely to run out of things to fire at ‘the enemy’, at the rate that they’re going through munitions.

 

The big risk was they'd run out of defence missiles rather than the attack ones. They have virtually unlimited supplies of JDAMs, much less long range weapons but they don't really need them now they have destroyed everything Iran has to shoot at their planes.

Iran has large oil reserves (as does Venesuala), but it's production is not that great, and it used half of that domestically.

https://www.worldometers.info/oil/iran-oil/

 

The biggest problem is shipping in the Straits of Hormuz. Once those ships, that can get through (why their navy has been obliterated first) have been reassigned to pick up in other places (probably the USA), thing will calm down a bit.

Brent Crude is at 92 USD at the moment. Higher than it has been, but not exceptionally high.

7 hours ago, SteamyTea said:

Brent Crude is at 92 USD at the moment.

10.00 news.... $110 now.

47 minutes ago, saveasteading said:

10.00 news.... $110 now.

£35 if you buy my welsh crude, and can accept the smell of cod coming from it...........

7 hours ago, Nickfromwales said:

£35 if you buy my welsh crude, and can accept the smell of cod coming from it

You have not seen the price of cod recently, we stopped selling it a while back.

 

Now this is oil prices, let us see how far the go and for how long.  Data is up to March 1^st

Two charts, nominal price and inflation adjusted for WTI crude.

Data from here

 

 

Edited March 9Mar 9 by SteamyTea

18 hours ago, SteamyTea said:

Once those ships, that can get through (why their navy has been obliterated first)

The Iranian Navy isn't/wasn't a key player.  IRGC fast attack craft and mining are.  Some estimates have up to 3000 FACs/Speedboats in the Iranian orbat.

 

Just takes a lucky RPG and a tanker is in a world of hurt (and Lloyds make others uninsurable).

And I would be very surprised if Iran hasn't been building up mine stocks as that is, potentially, their key weapon in the shipping war.  Dhows, fishing boats, FACs can all be used to lay nuisance minefields and the US can do little to stop it.

 

Interestingly, heard on the news this morning that the majority of the very few ships still transiting the Straits are Chinese-owned.  Clearly sailing without Lloyds insurance.  

 

Soon, the world could be buying our oil stocks from China...

4 hours ago, Bancroft said:

Just takes a lucky RPG and a tanker is in a world of hurt (and Lloyds make others uninsurable).

 

I think insurance policies are already on hold for transits through the Straight of Hormuz.

 

I personally think the situation is too far gone. I was reading earlier how long it takes to get insurance policies back up and running properly after they've been suspended like this. Trump could declare "victory" tomorrow, but it could take weeks if not months before shipping insurance is back to normal. By then, the world's economy will have been crippled.

Trump and Co. really thought this would be a slightly bigger version of Venezuala - couple of weeks instead of a couple of days. Instead, they've probably brought forward the next big recession and money print by months if not a year or more. Probably the last thing they were hoping for given the mid-terms later this year (although another argument is that they know they're going to lose those, so they want to get as much of their agenda implemented as quickly as possible before then). 

 

Sow the wind, reap the whirlwind.  

I would have thought that explicit time-limited state guarantees would be possible until a the private insurance market can restablish itself

 

Regards

 

Tet

16 hours ago, Tetrarch said:

I would have thought that explicit time-limited state guarantees would be possible until a the private insurance market can restablish itself

 

It's possible I suppose. 

Of course, all of this assumes Iran agrees to back down, or is incapacitated, and I don't see either of those happening in the short term. Insurance or not, would you agree to take a ship through the state of Hormuz when the Iranians have been laying mines and are threatening to blow up shipping?