Are we targeting ASHP's at the wrong market?

[Beelbeebub]

52 minutes ago, MikeSharp01 said:

Yes and with good instrumentation you can charge people by what they take out-of the pipe. Presumably everybody needs a tank for domestoc hot water (DHW) though 

don't even think you'd need that. Each home unit would provide the pumping power via it's own pump and obviously it's own power to operate the compressor etc.

 

All the "public" bit of the network provides is some pipes running into the ground (or into a lake or river) filled with brine. There would obviously be a "standing charge" to pay for the infrastructure and occasional repairs but the heat just comes from the environment.

[Beelbeebub]

Going back to the orginal topic

 

Say we have a storage heater flat

 

Uses upto 90kwh a day.

 

If it had 6 storage heaters, each holding upto 15kwh - those are typically about 700mm 1000mm and 190mm deep. Maximum output is around 1kw (dimplex xle)

 

E7 rates are about 14p

Octopus go is 8p

 

Let's say it uses 90x8 kwh in day. £7.20

 

If each heater was replaced by a. K33 700x1000 (similar size shonshoikdbe aa straight swap). Those provide 2.8kw @dt50 (flow 70C).

 

If we aim for a flow of 45C which generally gives ascopp of over 3.5 (vaillant arotherm) the dT is 25.  That derates the rads to about 40%, which is 1kw.

So the rads will output upto

1kw, which matches the storage heaters.

 

Assuming a cost of 24p per kwh then the cost per kwh delivered is 6.8p. So for 90kwh, £6.17 or 17% cheaper. Nearly 50% cheaper if you use 14p/kwh tarrifs.

 

So for a house using storage heaters it is absolutely possible to run cheaper and with no loss of comfort or space.

[Garald]

I'm scratching my head. Does the UK have cheap gas and expensive electricity (relative to France)?

[SteamyTea]

9 hours ago, Dillsue said:

For anyone thinking we're heading to electricity being from 100% renewables and the end of gas

The other day I had a look at when we bu8ilt our last CCGT,  It was 2016.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_natural_gas_power_stations_in_the_United_Kingdom

 

[Beelbeebub]

7 hours ago, Garald said:

I'm scratching my head. Does the UK have cheap gas and expensive electricity (relative to France)?

correct.

 

Currently elec/gas in the uk is about 4:1

 

With one or two exceptions this is the highest ratio in europe

 

The majority of Europe has a ratio at or below 3 which makes HP's a no brainer.

 

 

[LnP]

1 hour ago, Beelbeebub said:

correct.

 

Currently elec/gas in the uk is about 4:1

 

With one or two exceptions this is the highest ratio in europe

 

The majority of Europe has a ratio at or below 3 which makes HP's a no brainer.

 

 

Actually not sure that's quite correct. Maybe we should say it's expensive gas and even more expensive electricity!

 

Expensive electricity is not just a problem for heat pump implementation. Jim Ratcliffe, CEO of INEOS (and these days Manchester United shareholder) is blaming high electricity prices on the demise of the UK chemical industry. Mind you, he could have also have mentioned Brexit, which is just as much of a problem, but that would have been embarrassing for him because at the time, he said it was a good idea. More recently he's said Brexit hadn't worked out as he'd expected. What a surprise.

[Roger440]

22 hours ago, Mike said:

And, in the news last week: UK has highest electricity prices in Europe - and lowest heat pump uptake

 

At the moment, electricity costs 3.9 times as much as gas to produce the same amount of energy in the UK – with electricity costing 24.50 pence per kilowatt hour (kWh) compared to 6.24 pence for gas, according to Ofgem. The gap between electricity and gas prices is largely because most of the levies – such as to fund new solar and wind farms and to improve energy efficiency – sit on electricity rather than gas bills. Furthermore, the carbon tax to discourage fossil fuel use – charged on the carbon dioxide produced when generating electricity – is not applied to the gas burned in central heating boilers.

 

As a result, in 2023 the UK had the most expensive electricity in Europe, compared to its gas price – and one of the highest electricity prices in absolute terms.

 

 

I keep saying this. The priciple blocker to ASHP's is that electricity is just too expensive.

 

Sadly its suits powerful people to keep it that way. And so it shall stay that way.

 

All the various wheezes are just trying to work round the core issue.

[Roger440]

On 12/01/2025 at 10:35, ProDave said:

The push at the moment seems to be trying to persuade people to swap gas boilers for an ASHP.  A perfectly set up ASHP should be a little, not a lot, cheaper to run than a gas boiler.  If not perfect it could well cost more to run than the boiler it replaced.  So trying to persuade people to "invest" in a new heating system when they are quite happy with their old one and at best will only get a marginal saving, it is no wonder they are not queuing up to take up the offer.  you have to WANT to do it for other reasons, the main one being reducing CO2 emmisions.   

 

So are we targeting the worng market?  Why not instead target people using electric resistance heating currently, like electric panel heaters, storage heaters, or even electric boilers?  Those users would see their heating use of electricity drop by about 1/3 if they swapped to an ASHP,  saving them real money, not just marginal, and would reduce strain on the electricity grid which is already struggling at times. 

 

So that would give an immediate reduction in electricity used for heating, and reduced electricity use would mean fossil fuel generation required less frequently so an indirect saving in CO2 emmissions.

 

But the point is the customer would see a very real reduction in running cost not something marginal, and rather than increasing electricity use, it would be reducing it.

 

The boffins could do the sums to work out the CO2 reduction per kWh of electricity saved * and market it as CO2 reduction.

 

* It IS CO2 reduction because until we reach the point where no fossil fuel at all is used for electricity generation, then each 1kWh of electricity saved at the moment is 1kWh less generated by fossil fuels.

 

By the same token, installing an ASHP increases the electricity you use so that will increase fossil fuel generation at the moment so WILL result in increased CO2 emissions.

 

Agre with that.

 

Someone else suggested leaving it to market forces as its a no brainer to convert resistance to ASHP. Which, on face value is true. Sadly it ignores the fact that a majority of those on resistance heating have absolutely no chance of funding the capital cost. These people get zero help, but we are quite happy to chuck £7500 at what are, often, reasonably well of or weathly people. Logic? Zero.

 

But as i said earlier, the cost of electricity is too high for wholesale swap to ASHP. Unless you are already in the market for a whole new system anyway, going to ASHP is going to cost you more, even if its installed properly. And we all know most are not and hence will cost still more.

 

As others have pointed it out, if the ratio of gas v electricity was 1:2, people wouldnt be able to swap over fast enough.

 

As an aside, my barn office, kitchen etc is on resistance heating. Using it is eye wateringly expensive. I need to sort it out. However, it gets its supply from the house, and with other equipment in the barn, means i dont really have the headroom on the supply for a ASHP. So i will have to do a new oil installation. 

 

I did want to put in a three phase supply. Theres one on a pole in my field 50 feet away. But they want £17.5k + vat to do it. And have the benefit of uncapped electricity into the bargain.

 

Again, using electricity just to expensive. Edge case, maybe, but the statement still applies.

 

[Roger440]

On 12/01/2025 at 18:41, Beelbeebub said:

This is an issue with almost any improvement to the fabric of the building.

 

Basically tenants don't seem to care about the EPC.

 

We have almost never had anybody ask about the heating or epc. It was a bit depressing as we'd spend money insulating lofts etc and all anybody was impressed with were the sodding bathrooms.

 

That has changed a bit recently butnit still seems not to be a priority

 

Some of that may be simple pressure on spaces. Competition for homes is so fierce that people are glad to get anywhere even if it is costly to run.

 

Building better social housing to rent wouod go someway to moving the market.

 

The reality is housing, housing is a scarce commodity, be it rented or bought. You rent or buy what you can get. Start buggering around pondering the EPC and you will likely be homeless. Someone else will take it.

 

The ONLY resolution to that is a situation where supply exceeds demand. Theres a lot of reasons why that also wouldnt be desirable.

 

Though acedemic, as thats never going to happen.

[JohnMo]

16 hours ago, Beelbeebub said:

E7 rates are about 14p

Octopus go is 8p

 

You need an electric vehicle for go prices 

 

17 hours ago, Beelbeebub said:

Assuming a cost of 24p per kwh then the cost per kwh delivered is 6.8p. So for 90kwh, £6.17 or 17% cheaper.

But then gas is 5p, running the same flow temp, same plumbing is very high 90s efficiency. So running costs are another 8% lower. But no grants, could be installed way easier as no outside space needed. Hook up gas PDHW with WC.

 

Gas and direct electric have very similar CO2 

[Dillsue]

3 hours ago, Roger440 said:

Sadly it ignores the fact that a majority of those on resistance heating have absolutely no chance of funding the capital cost. These people get zero help, but we are quite happy to chuck £7500 at what are, often, reasonably well of or weathly people. Logic? Zero.

 

Octopus do heat pumps from £500. If you look at any deprived area via Google earth the roads are rammed with cars and vans each of which will fairly likely cost more than £500 to keep on the road. I'd be fairly certain that eco grants/zero interest loans are available for those struggling to find £500

 

It's all about choices and very few people give a toss about climate change so the right choices aren't being made.

[Alan Ambrose]

>>> very few people give a toss about climate change

 

Well, it's sometimes hard to care about climate change when you're trying to figure out how you're going to feed the kids / keep your job / pay the gas bill / and get the car you need to get to work fixed cheap ....

 

That is, for a lot of people, there are other priorities.

[Garald]

On 13/01/2025 at 09:20, Mike said:

Likewise, if you can heat Bowhill House and Wentworth Woodhouse with heat pumps, you can heat anything.

 

_{Wentworth Woodhouse, Andrewrabbott, CC-BY-SA-4.0, more}

 

 

The argument should be 'your place should be insulated enough that you can find a working arrangement in which the flow temperature is low-ish, preferably <= 45 C or so'. I guess that's always the case if you have central heating in which air gets heated centrally and pumped, American-style?

 

(I just found out that my parents have had a heat pump since 2009 and barely knew it - they just knew that their heating bills were surprisingly reasonable.)

[Beelbeebub]

4 hours ago, JohnMo said:

You need an electric vehicle for go prices 

Yes but I included it to be the best possible case for storage heaters

[Beelbeebub]

4 hours ago, JohnMo said:

Gas and direct electric have very similar CO2 

Yes which is amazing.

 

But even a poorly performing HP slashes that co2 in half again.

[Beelbeebub]

5 hours ago, Roger440 said:

I keep saying this. The priciple blocker to ASHP's is that electricity is just too expensive.

 

The key metric is the ratio between electric and gas.

 

In a way, to drive the swap to HPs (which is the correct thing from a co2 perspective) the best thing is high gas *and* electric with electric less than 3x the cost of gas.

 

If both are cheap then the savings from switching aren't worth the capital costs.

 

If electric was 1p/lwh and gas was 2p, people on gas probably wouldn't bother switching because saving 50% of very little is very little.

[SteamyTea]

7 hours ago, LnP said:

Brexit hadn't worked out as he'd expected.

Worked out very much as expected.

[Roger440]

2 hours ago, Dillsue said:

Octopus do heat pumps from £500. If you look at any deprived area via Google earth the roads are rammed with cars and vans each of which will fairly likely cost more than £500 to keep on the road. I'd be fairly certain that eco grants/zero interest loans are available for those struggling to find £500

 

It's all about choices and very few people give a toss about climate change so the right choices aren't being made.

 

£500 is just marketing guff. Nobody gets that in reality. Especially anyone on electric heating as there will be no existing central heating system to adapt. Plenty of evidence of that on here.

 

Pie in the sky.

 

Meanwhile, back on planet earth, correct, no one gives a toss. More pressing priorities in life than spunking £1000's of pounds they dont have to fix a problem that isnt going to get fixed. 

 

If everyone had a heat pump tommorow it will still make no difference to anything.

[Roger440]

1 hour ago, Beelbeebub said:

The key metric is the ratio between electric and gas.

 

In a way, to drive the swap to HPs (which is the correct thing from a co2 perspective) the best thing is high gas *and* electric with electric less than 3x the cost of gas.

 

If both are cheap then the savings from switching aren't worth the capital costs.

 

If electric was 1p/lwh and gas was 2p, people on gas probably wouldn't bother switching because saving 50% of very little is very little.

 

Good luck with putting up the price of gas. Force millions to be significantly worse off. Deliberately. How do you think that will go for the government of the day?

 

Going to be a hard sell, especially given the price of electricity is artificially pegged as discussed already. Fix that first. Problem is, they wont.

 

So you want to make everyone poorer, in order to achieve something, that cannot be possibly, tangilbly be felt by the consumer? If you believe this, id suggest your moral compass needs recalibrating. Harsh? Maybe, but anyone calling for higher gas prices needs to consider the implications of that.

 

[ProDave]

32 minutes ago, Roger440 said:

Good luck with putting up the price of gas. Force millions to be significantly worse off. Deliberately. How do you think that will go for the government of the day?

The last government doubled the price of electricity.  And got away with it.

 

Oh wait, they are no longer in power, but I doubt that was the only reason.

[Beelbeebub]

41 minutes ago, Roger440 said:

So you want to make everyone poorer, in order to achieve something, that cannot be possibly, tangilbly be felt by the consumer? If you believe this, id suggest your moral compass needs recalibrating. Harsh? Maybe, but anyone calling for higher gas prices needs to consider the implications of that.

 

I'm merely pointing out the ratio is the issue and from a purely "how to drive co2 emissions down" POV higher prices of energy (gas and electric) helps. Obviously it's crap in pretty much every other way.

 

As I said the tarionis the issue and currently one part of that is thr unequal distribution of green levies.  There are several ways to fix it. Simply shifting from one to the other is a way. Another would be to remove them from electric and stick them on general taxation.

 

As you say, fixing the wholesale price structure would drop electric pretty quick. I wonder if anyone has done a calculation on what the wholesale price would be if it was the average of all the units bought in the period.

[SBMS]

9 minutes ago, ProDave said:

The last government doubled the price of electricity.  And got away with it.

 

Oh wait, they are no longer in power, but I doubt that was the only reason.

Did they? I thought it was primarily global gas prices that pushed the price up. Didn’t the govt do the exact opposite by subsidising prices via the EPG (I know we all end up paying for it eventually).
 

(disclaimer: I am no supporter of the previous shower of sh**)

[Beelbeebub]

51 minutes ago, Roger440 said:

Meanwhile, back on planet earth, correct, no one gives a toss. More pressing priorities in life than spunking £1000's of pounds they dont have to fix a problem that isnt going to get fixed. 

 

If everyone had a heat pump tommorow itwilll still make no difference to anything.

osndoes boil down to the old "it's too expensive to reduce carbon emissions so we shouldn't"

 

That neglects the costs of doing nothing which are starting to bite now.

 

All the people displaced by fires, floods, drought probably don't think it was too expensive if they had their time again.

 

I saw a good quote

 

"the climate change effects will play out as a series of videos on your phone, until it's your phone making the videos."

 

[SBMS]

1 minute ago, Beelbeebub said:

osndoes boil down to the old "it's too expensive to reduce carbon emissions so we shouldn't"

 

That neglects the costs of doing nothing which are starting to bite now.

 

All the people displaced by fires, floods, drought probably don't think it was too expensive if they had their time again.

 

I saw a good quote

 

"the climate change effects will play out as a series of videos on your phone, until it's your phone making the videos."

 

I thought labour have committed to removing gas as an electricity source by 2030?

Edited 11 hours ago by SBMS

[Beelbeebub]

5 minutes ago, SBMS said:

Did they? I thought it was primarily global gas prices that pushed the price up. Didn’t the govt do the exact opposite by subsidising prices via the EPG (I know we all end up paying for it eventually).
 

(disclaimer: I am no supporter of the previous shower of sh**)

Gas is near double what it used to be and it isn't going to get cheaper.

 

Saying "poor people rely on gas for heating so we shouldn't try and move them off it" basically dooms them to be stuck using a volatile energy source.

 

If we moved everyone onto a cheaper energy source that we actually have energy security over it would be fit us all in the long run.

 

Again to go back to the OP.

 

If you are worried about someone barely making ends meet using electric resistance heaters the swapping them to a HP would slash their bills in half.  If we fitted air to air systems it would be cheap and those systems are commonly fitted to low income housing around the world. The government coukd subsidise the costs of fitting a2a.