Just spent a depressing hour reading the Climate Change Committee's report of today (18.07.2024)

[MikeSharp01]

In case you want to be depressed like me have a swift read of the summary (press release) of this here: https://www.theccc.org.uk/2024/07/18/uk-off-track-for-net-zero-say-countrys-climate-advisors/ or the full document here, executive summary will either have you head in hands or head in wine cooler: https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/progress-in-reducing-emissions-2024-report-to-parliament/

 

For us, here on the progressive forum that Buidhub is, much of this won't come as a surprise but when seen in the round and at scale you get the impression that there is a lot to do and the mistakes of the past, including quite recent choices by HMG, need to be sorted and reverse. Here are few headlines needed for 2030 to get us back on track: 

 

• 10% of UK homes need to be fitted with heat pumps (1% today) we have discussed this already on here. Sort planning and give me the £7500 if I can show my install meets the broad criteria - IE heats my home but only once I can show it is working. 
• Offshore wind needs to increase by a factor of 3 times. Stop making noises that put companies off bidding for new wind farms at auction.
• The market share of new electric cars needs to rise to 100% by 2030. Reverse the move made by one R Sunak 18 months back even if it does put all the manufacturers into a flat spin!

 

They make some great recommendations about those and others that need fixing.

 

"

• Make electricity cheaper. Removing policy costs from electricity prices will support industrial electrification and ensure the lower running costs of heat pumps compared to fossil-fuel boilers are reflected in household bills (R2024-011).
• Reverse recent policy rollbacks. Remove the exemption of 20% of households from the 2035 fossil-fuel boiler installation phase-out, address the gap left by removing obligations on landlords to improve the energy efficiency of rented homes and reinstate the 2030 phase-out of new fossil-fuel car and van sales. The damage of these rollbacks can be limited by quickly reinstating these policies (R2024-016, R2024-017, R2024-029).
• Remove planning barriers for heat pumps, electric vehicle charge points and onshore wind (R2024-015, R2024-032 and R2024-019).
• Introduce a comprehensive programme for decarbonisation of public sector buildings (R2024-013).
• Effectively design and implement the upcoming renewable energy CfD auctions. Ensure funding and auction design for the Sixth and Seventh Allocation Rounds are appropriate to deliver at least 50 GW of offshore wind by 2030 (R2024-007).
• Accelerate electrification of industrial heat. Strengthen the UK Emissions Trading Scheme to ensure that its price is sufficient to incentivise decarbonisation and that support is available for a rapid transition to electric heat across much of industry (R2023-080, R2024-012).
• Ramp up tree planting and peatland restoration. Tree planting must be scaled up in the 2020s for abatement to be sufficient for later carbon budgets and Net Zero. There must be no more delays to addressing the barriers to delivery (R2023-192, R2023-171).
• Finalise business models for large-scale deployment of engineered removals. Finalise and open to the market the business models for engineered removals (R2024-006).
• Publish a strategy to support skills. Support workers in sectors which need to grow or transition and in communities that may be adversely impacted (R2022-128, R2023-169).
• Strengthen NAP3 with a vision that sets clear objectives and targets and reorganise government adaptation policy. Adaptation must become a fundamental aspect of policy making across all departments and be integrated into other national policy objectives (R2024-030).^[*]"  (

(Climate Change Committee, 2024 progress Report to parliament, 2024 - https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/progress-in-reducing-emissions-2024-report-to-parliament/)

 

Any thoughts - I think I will go and eat myself into an early grave or, alternatively, hang on for this: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cv2gr3x3xkno#:~:text=A drug has increased the,cancers than their unmedicated peers. to work itself out and see if I have the energy to help sort it - first get a final, reliable, reasonable quote for an ASHP!

 

PS don't tell my pension plan!

Edited July 18 by MikeSharp01
Added the PS

[SteamyTea]

Having studied climate change at the academic level for nearly twenty years, and had a serious interest in it for well over 40 years (well more reducing energy usage than climate change), I have got over the depressing, hopeless feeling now.

I just try and think up ways to cope (mitigations) with climate change.

One thing that I do find frustrating is the lack of understanding of the problem with the general population.  The media must start taking some lead hear and stop doing the scare stories.  The 'science' is not hard to understand at all, I can teach why elevated levels of atmospheric CO_2e is causing higher global temperatures, in an hour.  But without 'official' backup from the media, there is little point as you just end up having to counter claim bad journalism.

 

[MikeSharp01]

8 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

I can teach why elevated levels of atmospheric CO_2e is causing higher global temperatures, in an hour.

Make a podcast and let's make it go viral - but no more than 7.5 minutes (5 minutes if like most users you speed it up when watching). Nobody watches an hours worth of Youtube / Tic Toc / anything these days.

 

 

 

[SteamyTea]

3 minutes ago, MikeSharp01 said:

Make a podcast and let's make it go viral - but no more than 7.5 minutes (5 minutes if like most users you speed it up when watching)

That is part of the problem though.  In a few minutes all you can say is the old tropes, and too many people don't want to believe them (many on here included).

 

As you well know, when educating, you have to break down the existing mental models that people have entrenched in their minds, then start rebuilding a more appropriate model. 

[FuerteStu]

If we all fully insulated our homes, drove cars and grew food in our gardens.. Of still wouldn't save the planet. 

 

Not until all industries start changing their ways. 

 

Industrial scale resource wastage is taken for granted. 

 

Out of 12 aircraft Hangers I worked on last week, 6 of which were empty, yet still heated, one of which had the doors open 24/7 with the heaters on. 

 

Two of these have issues with their sprinkler systems not holding pressure and have mains pressure water pouring down the drain and have been for a year. That's drinking water. 

 

This is US/UK tax payers money covering the cost of these wasted $/£, and this sort of thing happens in ALL industries. 

 

As long as the mentality of fighting change is based upon short term economics, things won't change

[Mattg4321]

Along with the vast majority of people, I'm no scientist. I can only walk out of the door in the morning and know what the weather is like outside my front door. I've not noticed a difference in my lifetime, but it's hardly scientific.

 

The problem I have with it, is that scientists are clearly under enormous pressure to agree with the climate change narrative - very similar to what happened with the covid/lockdowns/masks narratives. As a layperson how am I meant to choose whether to believe the authorities (who are inept and constantly lie) and a large group of very well credentialed scientists, or a smaller group of apparently very well credentialed scientists who disagree. It's notable that these guys are often quite senior and close to retirement so may not care if they are ostracised? History is littered with mistakes caused by group think, maybe we are making another by expending vast resources trying to reduce carbon dioxide, which is generally harmless to health?

 

I got sent this video and it's quite persuasive, but I'm not qualified to make a decision on whether or not to believe it. 

 

 

[DamonHD]

Fully insulating our homes and electrifying our heating *will* knock ~15% off the UK's current carbon footprint.

 

On a slightly different note, and much smaller beer but still needs sorting and would be *very* easy to address, I'm trying to get Apple, Amazon, Spotify, etc, to do something about the the 99.9% of resources they are wasting polling RSS/podcast feeds:

 

https://www.earth.org.uk/RSS-efficiency.htm

[Dave Jones]

all absolutely pointless until china sorts its house out.

[SteamyTea]

5 minutes ago, Dave Jones said:

all absolutely pointless until china sorts its house out.

That is quite a bold statement.

China does have high emissions, but they are the wields largest manufacturing nation, so we really need to account for the embodied CO_2e on their exports.

As they did not start industrialising until the 1970s, their accumulative CO_2e is still way lower than the UKs. This is important because the gasses stay in the atmosphere for decades, and in the case if carbon dioxide, centuries.

China is also the largest installer of renewable technologies.

So rather that blame everyone else, take some personal responsibility and change your habits.

[joe90]

19 minutes ago, Dave Jones said:

all absolutely pointless until china sorts its house out.

If we all adopted “. I will when they do”. Attitude then nothing will ever get done.

[Dave Jones]

yeah lets close down our only steel furnace to we can just import it. That will make us really green.

 

idiotic and dangerous nonsense.

 

You can do whatever you want its the forcing the rest of us to assist in your delusions that is the issue. Socialist/fascist mentality that has infected the education system and youth thanks to the useless education system. 

 

 

[SteamyTea]

1 hour ago, Dave Jones said:

yeah lets close down our only steel furnace to we can just import it

It is better to manufacture with newer and more efficient systems than use outdated technology.

1 hour ago, Dave Jones said:

its the forcing the rest of us to assist in your delusions that is the issue

What delusions?

1 hour ago, Dave Jones said:

Socialist/fascist mentality that has infected the education system and youth thanks to the useless education system. 

The education systems has many faults, but socialism and fascism is not part of them.

I suspect you think you rote learning is all that is needed.

Learn your times tables, names kings and queens of England, find London on a map and if you are female, cook and darn.

Edited July 19 by SteamyTea

[Mike]

4 hours ago, SteamyTea said:

China does have high emissions, but they are the wields largest manufacturing nation, so we really need to account for the embodied CO_2e on their exports.

China is also the largest installer of renewable technologies.

Important points.

 

4 hours ago, SteamyTea said:

As they did not start industrialising until the 1970s, their accumulative CO_2e is still way lower than the UKs.

Unfortunately that's no longer the case; they overtook us in 1998.

 

In terms of cumulative emissions since 1750, and by 2022 the UK had contributed 4.45%, Germany 5.3%, Russia 6.73% China 14.7% and the USA 24.08%

 

More info and animation at https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-of-cumulative-co2?tab=map

[SteamyTea]

21 minutes ago, Mike said:

Unfortunately that's no longer the case; they overtook us in 1998.

I must remember to look up the data.

 

[Marvin]

18 hours ago, SteamyTea said:

Having studied climate change at the academic level for nearly twenty years, and had a serious interest in it for well over 40 years (well more reducing energy usage than climate change), I have got over the depressing, hopeless feeling now.

I just try and think up ways to cope (mitigations) with climate change.

One thing that I do find frustrating is the lack of understanding of the problem with the general population.  The media must start taking some lead hear and stop doing the scare stories.  The 'science' is not hard to understand at all, I can teach why elevated levels of atmospheric CO_2e is causing higher global temperatures, in an hour.  But without 'official' backup from the media, there is little point as you just end up having to counter claim bad journalism.

 

In the late 1970's I read MAD magazine where they had cartoon scripts, some of which were about how different things would be in the future due to a hotter climate etc.

 

Low and behold we're facing what they wrote about. This must be a coincidence. Surely we didn't have the science then to see this coming. Surely people would have listened during the last 50 years.

 

Surely the majority of the people ( and therefore the deciding factor about what the priorities are) would have decided to change the way we all live and not face such a future.

 

Apparently not.  I've given up on humanity and concentrate on doing my bit where I can.

 

As the planet's climate changes swiftly now, but humans still resist adapting quickly enough the outlook is bleak. Some individual rights will have to be superseded by population rights or we will lose all hope as a race.

 

On a positive note all this sun and rain has brought on my potatoes a treat.

 

Good luck 

 

Marvin

[Mattg4321]

What did they write about that we’re currently facing?

 

Why is the outlook bleak/why have we lost hope as a ‘race’ (species?). 
 

Not gotcha questions, just interested in your viewpoint, and looking for positives. 
 

Global population is probably as prosperous as it has ever been currently. Not something to be demoralised about it. A great achievement. 
 

The number of deaths due to extreme weather events has reduced over the past 100 years, despite rising temperatures - perhaps even because of them? Less people die from extreme heat, than cold. We can adapt to rising temperatures, as we did last time temperatures rose to the levels predicted by the IPCC. 
 

I won’t say it doesn’t worry me, but in comparison to air quality, water quality, geopolitical risk and cultural change brought about by many things, including social media, I have to say rising temperatures concerns me less.
 

Maybe I’m being ignorant and don’t understand the risk of some tipping point event - but from what I can see the IPCC is not really committing to that sort of scenario, other than some sort of social/political unrest event, caused by water/food shortages etc. Seems to me that they’re doing a good job of risking that scenario without climate change, more due to their hare brained ideas being imposed on us. 
 

 

[Mike]

On 19/07/2024 at 16:47, Mattg4321 said:

just interested in your viewpoint

Forget our viewpoints, ask the scientists.

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/climate

[Mattg4321]

That’s only one group of scientists though. There are dissenters, some of whom are/were professors at Ivy League colleges/nobel prize winners etc, maybe they could be correct. 

 

The general consensus during the covid pandemic wasn’t exactly always correct, some of the dissenters have probably been proven correct, or at least closer to the mark than some of the ‘accepted consensus’ scientists

[MikeSharp01]

When I think about it the CCC report just assumes we are trying to get to net zero - something we agreed to a long time ago. So all they are doing is looking at the road map and assessing our progress. We also might conjecture that switching over to renewable is sensible anyway, we will need them eventually unless Einstein was wrong, because we will run out eventually after all.

[SteamyTea]

I was in Totnes yesterday, so popped into the Library where they have a room set aside to the Transition Town movement.

They are going to save humanity by encouraging people to use cash and not buy anything new.

This is exactly what happened to the Penzance TT group, but at least they did it 15 years ago and disbanded.

[Sparrowhawk]

1 hour ago, SteamyTea said:

I was in Totnes yesterday, so popped into the Library where they have a room set aside to the Transition Town movement.

They are going to save humanity by encouraging people to use cash and not buy anything new.

This is exactly what happened to the Penzance TT group, but at least they did it 15 years ago and disbanded.

I went to my local Transition Town group when I moved here as I thought they would be into retrofit and energy saving, and I'd get some ideas for what I can do.

 

Not a chance. They went as far as install solar, then it was reuse, grow your own, wild flowers and "out there" theories (magnets on gas pipes and more).

Edited July 21 by Sparrowhawk

[SteamyTea]

37 minutes ago, Sparrowhawk said:

magnets on gas pipes and more

I may suggest that to my dim neighbour: we have no gas.

[Jilly]

18 hours ago, Mattg4321 said:

 

The general consensus during the covid pandemic wasn’t exactly always correct, some of the dissenters have probably been proven correct, or at least closer to the mark than some of the ‘accepted consensus’ scientists

There WAS robust scientific debate, conclusions had to be drawn to try to protect the statistically greatest number of people against an unknown, so there was always going to be a complicated risk/ benefit analysis. 
 

Air travel and climate change will contribute to the next pandemic, no question. Insect vectors for diseases from the tropics are migrating further, so let’s hope the RNA vaccine research continues apace. The One Health initiative draws medics, vets and environmental scientists together to develop policies on antibiotic and agrochemical stewardship for example. 
 

Scientific collaboration is key to developing meaningful policies and subsidising the STEM subjects at degree level to motivate and educate the next generation who will be most affected, is my hope for the future. 

Edited July 21 by Jilly

[ProDave]

The electric car thing.  We are being told they are just as good as an ICE car and we should all have one.

 

Just 2 problems with that.

 

First they are NOT as "good" in some respects because range and charging times limit their use compared to almost instant refuelling of an ICE car, and they are even more hopeless if you want to tow something.  The "sales pitch" needs to be more honest, they are just as good for many users that don't do long journeys or tow anything, but be HONEST that they are not a drop in replacement that will suit all uses.  And if you answer that with "they will get better" then that just reinforces my point, they are not yet ready for all users so why buy a pre production development model?

 

And secondly they are just too expensive, most people like me could not afford one even if I wanted one.

 

 

[ProDave]

And for mass take up of renewables like heat pumps and solar PV someone really really needs to give all the DNO's a kick up the whatsit and make it their problem to upgrade the grid rather than saying no you can't have.  Take away the hostility that people like me would face if they wanted more PV for example.