This weeks Short Read: Population

[SteamyTea]

Why falling birth rates will be a bigger problem than overpopulation

Nearly every country is predicted to have a birth rate that is too low to maintain its population by 2100, which may result in too few people of working age

By Clare Wilson

20 March 2024

 

 

 

The cost of housing and fertility treatments may deter people in high-income countries from having children

ER Productions Limited/Getty Images

 

Think of global population problems and you might think of the growing number of people in the world – currently about 8 billion – and our collective toll on the planet. But due to people having fewer children as countries become more prosperous, the real demographic problem may turn out to be falling populations.

Projecting from current trends, demographers have now predicted that, within about 25 years, three-quarters of countries will have birth rates that are too low to maintain their populations. While this may be good news for the environment, having fewer working-age people to support those who are older presents a huge economic challenge.

The latest projections also indicate that there will be a sharp divide between countries with low birth rates and generally high incomes – such as most European nations – and a smaller number of countries, mainly in Africa, with higher birth rates and low incomes.

“We are facing staggering social change through the 21st Century,” researcher Stein Emil Vollset at the University of Washington in Seattle said in a statement. “The world will be simultaneously tackling a baby boom in some countries and a baby bust in others.”

Maintaining economic and societal stability in the face of these stark differences will be one of the key challenges of this century. So what should countries be doing to prepare for this demographic time bomb?

While the trend of a rising global population has long caused environmental concerns, demographers also knew it wouldn’t continue indefinitely. Estimates vary, but we seem on course to hit “peak people” sometime between 2060 and 2080, with a head count of 9.5 to 10 billion people, falling thereafter.

The latest projections from Vollset’s team are broadly in line with previous predictions from bodies such as the United Nations in terms of global trends. What is new is a more detailed breakdown of how things will change country by country, based on the latest data on birth rates for five-year age groups from those aged between 10 and 54, projected to the year 2100.

Countries generally require a birth rate of 2.1 children per woman for their populations to stay constant. Vollset’s team found that, by 2050, the birth rate will have fallen below this level in 76 per cent of countries. By 2100, this is forecast to reach 97 per cent.

At the same time, people are living longer, so populations as a whole have fewer people of working age who can provide for older people and others who are economically inactive. An ageing population cannot be avoided, says Vegard Skirbekk at the Norwegian Institute of Public Health in Oslo. “However, one should try to make the transition slow in order to better be able to prepare for this process.”

To slow falling birth rates, high-income countries should attempt to make it easier and more attractive for people to have more children, for instance by improving access to housing and fertility treatments, says Skirbekk.

Countries also need to plan to cope with their shrinking and ageing populations by building more hospitals, updating transport systems and having fewer schools, says Melinda Mills at the University of Oxford. “Cities are focusing on getting people to schools and to work. They might have to focus more on getting them to shops and hospitals,” she says.

Jennifer Sciubba at the Wilson Center, a think tank in Washington DC, says companies also need to make it easier for older people to stay in work for longer, for instance, on reduced hours. “We have this binary view that you’re either working or not, but that doesn’t have to be the case,” she says.

A minority of countries, however, face the opposite challenge of having a higher birth rate than the 2.1 replacement level. The new study finds this will probably still be true even in 2100. Most such nations will be in sub-Saharan Africa and are projected to account for one in every two children born by 2100.

In these countries, better access to contraception and education for girls have been shown to reduce birth rates, says Sciubba. Migration from high-birth-rate and low-income countries is also likely to continue, which could lead to competition between richer countries for migrants from sub-Saharan Africa, the authors of the new study say in their paper. “However, this approach will only work if there is a shift in current public and political attitudes towards immigration,” they say.

 

Journal reference:

The Lancet DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00550-6

[ProDave]

Well we keep being told that automation etc will make us all more productive and increase leisure time.

 

I have been fed that mantra since school and I am still waiting for that to be the case.  But it should be possible.  Time for those that kept on telling us that to prove it.

 

It won't be my problem, and not my daughter's either  so I won't worry about it.

[joe90]

Already in Japan people in the 80,s continue to work (if able). Yes I have always thought suddenly retiring from full time is a nonsense (mind I did it but had to build a house 🤷‍♂️).

[Iceverge]

5 hours ago, ProDave said:

Well we keep being told that automation etc will make us all more productive and increase leisure time.

 

I have been fed that mantra since school and I am still waiting for that to be the case.  But it should be possible.  Time for those that kept on telling us that to prove it.

 

It won't be my problem, and not my daughter's either  so I won't worry about it.

 

I think it has dramatically improved productivity. EG getting the same  job done with less time and less people. 

 

Take an average DIY project. 

 

We get inspiration from something like Pinterest or Instagram Vs trekking to a library to borrow a specific book. 

 

Then we research how it's done on youtube and Buildhub. Avoiding many of the pitfalls of doing it the wrong way and wasting loads of time through trial and error or asking our 1 mate who has tried it before. 

 

The I draw it up on my laptop in SketchUp, make a Google sheets doc for the quantities.  Try calculating by hand the amount of OSB to sheath an awkward roof VS just clicking on the surfaces in 3d model and you'll soon see how much time it saves. 

 

We order materials from Screwfix and the merchants on our phones, pay with cards and they magically appear the follow day. No need to take time off out day job. Before we'd have needed to drive into town, go to the bank, withdraw cash, visit the BM, load it all into a trailer and haul it home. 

 

Then look at all the amazing things that weren't available to my grandfather at an affordable price that massively speed up building and often enable a job to be done safely by one person.

 

Here's a few I use that springs to mind. 

 

1. Cordless electric tools. Take on a 9*3 a few times with a hand saw and then tell me technology hasn't improved things. 

2. Cable ties 

3. My mobile phone. I use it for everything. From all the above bits up to "walkie talkie"ing my wife to flick a remote switch or valve while I investigate the other end. 

4. Laser levels.

5. Modern adhesives, tapes and expanding foams. 

6. Cheap safety equipment like gloves, disposable overalls, dust masks, goggles and hearing protection keep guys out of the sick bed and in work every day of the week. 

7. Cherry pickers Vs ladders

8. Cement mixers. 

9. Volumetric concrete lorrys. 

10. Conputer designed roof trusses. 

11. Cranes, including those wonderful truck mounted remote control ones.

12. eBay gumtree etc allow me to afford stuff like ASHPs at a cheap price. 

13. Led Headtorches

 

 

 

[Iceverge]

1 minute ago, Iceverge said:

 

I think it has dramatically improved productivity. EG getting the same  job done with less time and less people. 

 

Take an average DIY project. 

 

We get inspiration from something like Pinterest or Instagram Vs trekking to a library to borrow a specific book. 

 

Then we research how it's done on youtube and Buildhub. Avoiding many of the pitfalls of doing it the wrong way and wasting loads of time through trial and error or asking our 1 mate who has tried it before. 

 

The I draw it up on my laptop in SketchUp, make a Google sheets doc for the quantities.  Try calculating by hand the amount of OSB to sheath an awkward roof VS just clicking on the surfaces in 3d model and you'll soon see how much time it saves. 

 

We order materials from Screwfix and the merchants on our phones, pay with cards and they magically appear the follow day. No need to take time off out day job. Before we'd have needed to drive into town, go to the bank, withdraw cash, visit the BM, load it all into a trailer and haul it home. 

 

Then look at all the amazing things that weren't available to my grandfather at an affordable price that massively speed up building and often enable a job to be done safely by one person. None of this would exist at consumer level without automation. 

 

Here's a few I use that springs to mind. 

 

1. Cordless electric tools. Take on a 9*3 a few times with a hand saw and then tell me technology hasn't improved things. 

2. Cable ties 

3. My mobile phone. I use it for everything. From all the above bits up to "walkie talkie"ing my wife to flick a remote switch or valve while I investigate the other end. 

4. Laser levels.

5. Modern adhesives, tapes and expanding foams. 

6. Cheap safety equipment like gloves, disposable overalls, dust masks, goggles and hearing protection keep guys out of the sick bed and in work every day of the week. 

7. Cherry pickers Vs ladders

8. Cement mixers. 

9. Volumetric concrete lorrys. 

10. Conputer designed roof trusses. 

11. Cranes, including those wonderful truck mounted remote control ones.

12. eBay gumtree etc allow me to afford stuff like ASHPs at a cheap price. 

13. Led Headtorches

 

 

 

 

[joe90]

[Russell griffiths]

Didn’t we have something that could have thinned down the aging population ?

 

[SteamyTea]

4 minutes ago, Russell griffiths said:

Didn’t we have something that could have thinned down the aging population ?

 

Yes, but it looks like the Waspi Women should be compensated.

Poverty is the biggest killer.

Ignorance is the second biggest.

[ProDave]

2 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

Yes, but it looks like the Waspi Women should be compensated.

Poverty is the biggest killer.

Ignorance is the second biggest.

Sorry but why should the WASPI women be compensated?  The gist of what I am hearing in the news, is in spite of the change in SP age being announced many years before it came into effect, some are claiming they were not notified and it came as a shock to them and they had no time to make plans.  do these people live in a bubble never watching any news or reading any newspapers?

 

Nobody notified ME personally that the SP age for men would rise from 65 to 67 so I have just as much of a "claim" as the WASPI's

[MikeSharp01]

2 hours ago, joe90 said:

Is that you with 44 (forty four) bricks - that's a lift if ever I saw one. the HSE would have something to say adding all that weight to a wooden ladder's rungs!!!!

Edited March 22 by MikeSharp01
Miss-counted the bricks - its worse / better than I thought!!!!

[Jenki]

4 minutes ago, ProDave said:

Sorry but why should the WASPI women be compensated?  The gist of what I am hearing in the news, is in spite of the change in SP age being announced many years before it came into effect, some are claiming they were not notified and it came as a shock to them and they had no time to make plans.  do these people live in a bubble never watching any news or reading any newspapers?

 

Nobody notified ME personally that the SP age for men would rise from 65 to 67 so I have just as much of a "claim" as the WASPI's

I thought it was also linked to NI payments, where some who were already retired found out that they now didn't have the correct amount of payments and thus receive a reduced state pension, but I might be wrong, too much other stuff to think about...

[SteamyTea]

6 minutes ago, ProDave said:

some are claiming they were not notified and it came as a shock to them and they had no time to make plans

I think this 'early group' were not notified at all, and there was, at the time, very little news about it.

Not the same as the later lot, in the late 90s and early 2000s.

I also think, from what I have heard in the radio that many were misinformed by the tax office.

They are a relatively small group.

[JohnMo]

19 minutes ago, Russell griffiths said:

Didn’t we have something that could have thinned down the aging population ?

 

 

Those blocks/bricks on my shoulder and on a ladder, would kill me off.

 

2 hours ago, joe90 said:

 

2 minutes ago, MikeSharp01 said:

Is that you with 40 (forty) bricks - that's a lift if ever I saw one. the HSE would have something to say adding all that weight to a wooden ladder's rungs!!!!

That would be more than 25kg so would be a two person lift. That would be complex on a ladder. But I suppose they are the current rules.

[joe90]

12 minutes ago, ProDave said:

Nobody notified ME personally that the SP age for men would rise from 65 to 67 so I have just as much of a "claim" as the WASPI's

Same here (changed to 66), plus was it not inequality  for women to have a pension 5 years earlier than men when statistically they live longer ? Why was that? Women want equality and this an example of that being done.

[ProDave]

6 minutes ago, joe90 said:

Same here (changed to 66), plus was it not inequality  for women to have a pension 5 years earlier than men when statistically they live longer ? Why was that? Women want equality and this an example of that being done.

Yes, a case of "be careful what you wish for (equality)"

[Pocster]

Guys 

 

most 20 yrs old don’t / can’t / wtf want to work . No shagging so less babies .

Population drops and productivity drops .

Aliens land - tell us what (expletive deleted) wits we are .

Turn us into their sex slaves .

 

Sorted ! - don’t sweat the small stuff !

Edited March 22 by Pocster

[Jilly]

36 minutes ago, ProDave said:

Yes, a case of "be careful what you wish for (equality)"

Yes, but the majority of women of the generation we are talking about, (and still do)  had to take time off to have children and so haven’t paid enough NI. 

[joe90]

11 minutes ago, Jilly said:

Yes, but the majority of women of the generation we are talking about, (and still do)  had to take time off to have children and so haven’t paid enough NI. 

I beg to differ …

 

You'll get National Insurance credits automatically if you claim Child Benefit and your child is under 12. These credits count towards your State Pension, so you do not have gaps in your National Insurance record if either: you're not working. you do not earn enough to pay National Insurance contributions.

[SteamyTea]

24 minutes ago, joe90 said:

 

You'll get National Insurance credits automatically if you claim Child Benefit and your child is under 12

I seem to remember that was a fairly recent change.

Not having a womb I have never taken much notice of it.

I know my Mother kept her NI up to date and even paid contributions when we were abroad.

Government is getting it all back now via the fees on her care home 'tax'.

 

[billt]

Lynne got caught with this. She lost 2 years of state pension which she could reasonably have expected to receive, so something like £10-12,000 in total. That's a significant amount of money.

 

As far as I can remember she was not told about the change form an official (government) source. We knew it was coming because we took a serious interest in pension planning and saw news reports about it.

 

The main cause for complaint is the lack of information (no doubt that was deliberate) and the relatively short notice given; too short to make serious plans to replace the missing money.

[Iceverge]

In the West we'd want to get wise to the reality that children are now completely optional and considering the cost of them, quick becoming a luxury item. 

 

Unless we all want to work until we literally die we need young people to have children.

 

This means proper wages for people in their twenties,cheaper houses and properly funded state childcare and kindergarden. 

 

 

Edited March 22 by Iceverge

[PNAmble]

2 hours ago, joe90 said:

You'll get National Insurance credits automatically if you claim Child Benefit and your child is under 12

Child benefit was introduced in 1977.  

[Gone West]

10 hours ago, PNAmble said:

Child benefit was introduced in 1977.  

I remember my mother collecting Family Allowance from the Post Office in the 1950s. That was only available for the second child onwards whereas Child Benefit, which replaced Family Allowance, was available for the first child onwards. AIUI it's the women born in the 1950s who are losing out on State Pension.