Rethinking the mindset for mass retrofit - a provocative idea

[MikeSharp01]

53 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/606834/Report_on_compliance_with_MCS_installation_standards_v32.pdf

Interesting read - not everything is well in the state of MCS - looks like more than 50% of the installs they looked at did not have the correct Legionella controls and the estimation of how good the home's insulation was seems often to have been woefully subjective rather than objective. It also seems that systems designers, those given the authority to say what was correct - and therefore what you should buy and HMG should subsidies, did not use consistent approaches so your design could have been different from two different suppliers. There seems much that is positive however.

[JamesPa]

9 hours ago, SimonD said:

Don't forget that there's also a lack of resources when it comes to installation. Human resources in this instance, and not all of them are very well trained or qualified) - https://www.phamnews.co.uk/calls-for-a-legal-minimum-qualification-for-heat-pump-installers/

Isn't that why we need to get local plumbers engaged, currently it's a niche industry effectively closed to most of the people who today install 1.5M gas boilers each year.

[MikeSharp01]

43 minutes ago, JamesPa said:

Isn't that why we need to get local plumbers engaged, currently it's a niche industry effectively closed to most of the people who today install 1.5M gas boilers each year.

Sadly from my perspective it feels like the usual closed shop approach, to do heat pumps you need to be registered with both the Plumbing and Electrical registration bodies - that is a tough ask for the sole trader and so a restriction to trade even in the trade. This is not the case for Gas boilers as I understand it.

 

It is interesting that HMG feels we need such strong regulation in such relatively simple technologies but none in the complex ones - eg AI, IoT and Social Networks (coming I know but decades too late for many with serious well being issues because of it).

 

I appreciate that many do not have the confidence to do it, manage it and/or evaluate options (other than in money / personality terms) for  themselves and that is a failing of our education system and indeed our whole investment system. 

 

 

[JamesPa]

1 hour ago, MikeSharp01 said:

Sadly from my perspective it feels like the usual closed shop approach, to do heat pumps you need to be registered with both the Plumbing and Electrical registration bodies - that is a tough ask for the sole trader and so a restriction to trade even in the trade. This is not the case for Gas boilers as I understand it.

My plumber always turns up with an electrician whenever there is anything other than like for like to be done.  

 

In terms of registration, MCS is the real problem I believe.  Its appears to be an enormous overhead.

[JamesPa]

2 hours ago, MikeSharp01 said:

Interesting read - not everything is well in the state of MCS - looks like more than 50% of the installs they looked at did not have the correct Legionella controls and the estimation of how good the home's insulation was seems often to have been woefully subjective rather than objective. It also seems that systems designers, those given the authority to say what was correct - and therefore what you should buy and HMG should subsidies, did not use consistent approaches so your design could have been different from two different suppliers. There seems much that is positive however.

Thanks.  I was keen to read this in detail, then I looked at the date - 2017.  That's a long time ago so I am not sure I would be prepared to rely on it.

[SteamyTea]

37 minutes ago, JamesPa said:

was keen to read this in detail, then I looked at the date - 2017.  That's a long time ago so I am not sure I would be prepared to rely on it.

Not as far f much has changed in that time.

I have a feeling there is a newer report, but could not find it last night.

Worth remembering that the technology is near enough the same, housing is similar, as are people. So still valid I think.

[JamesPa]

1 hour ago, SteamyTea said:

Not as far f much has changed in that time.

I have a feeling there is a newer report, but could not find it last night.

Worth remembering that the technology is near enough the same, housing is similar, as are people. So still valid I think.

As you say an interesting read.  The scattergram on page 44 is a stand-out message for me, basically showing pretty poor, one might say appalling, correlation between calculated and actual heat loss and a tendency (understandable given the scatter) to over estimate.  Since this affects so many parameters in the system design, over-engineering has a major impact on many areas of installation cost and some impact on running cost, this is clearly a problem.  Furthermore its one  which, based on my personal experience, has not gone away.

 

I had two full surveys done, both coming out with about 16kW.  The one for which I requested full calculation details had ignored the fabric upgrades (which made a point to tell them about) and double counted room to room loss in the house total.  I can only presume that the second surveyor did something similar.  Making the corrections, but retaining MCS assumptions, gives a revised figure of 10.5kW.  The actual measured is 7.5kW.   Having said that I don't 'blame' surveyors entirely for the scattergram on page 44, ignoring fabric upgrades and double counting room to room losses is inexcusable, but there are clearly many un-knowable factors particularly in older houses which have been subject to multiple modifications, and it is almost inevitable that designs will err on the cautions side.

 

I do wonder if there is scope for measurement here (and in several other areas where system design hinges on difficult to ascertain information).  Annual gas consumption is known and, with smart meters, its pretty simple to crunch the data with average temperature/degree day data to get an experimental read out.  As a bare minimum such measurements should surely form a 'sense check' on calculated values.  However given the scattergram I do wonder if they should be the design basis for the whole house sizing, with heat loss calculations used only to size radiators.

 

Its a shame that manufacturers dont yet produce 'range rated' ashps.  Its clear that some do in fact, if you look closely at manufacturer data then clearly some lower spec models are simply the higher spec hardware with slightly different software settings.  However so far as I am aware this isnt exposed to the user, unlike gas boilers where it is.

Edited April 26, 2023 by JamesPa

[Roger440]

An interesting thread.

 

Id agree with much that Jamespa has said. There will be little progress in the rate on installation at current prices, subsidy or not.

 

The progress rate talked about here is a very long way short of the targets being set. So its actually more like 2.5 million installs a year required.

 

As James says, not going to happen due to current prices, the work involved to extensive and disruptive, and the man power to do it doesnt exist.

 

A pull the boiler out and in stal a HP sounds like a sensible way to takcle the above.

 

But as already noted, whose interest is it in to do £4k installs? Apart from the customer, nobody, is the answer. At the current bumbers, some people are getting wealthy quite quickly, at the taxpayers expense. Why would those on the gravy train wish to become all competative?

 

As things stand nobody gains from disrupting the staus quo.  None of the companies concerned, nor the government at the level it matters are remotely interested in if fossil fuel burning is reduced. This is just an excellent opportunity to make cash. Fast.

 

My expectations of any kind of breakthrough anytime soon are low.

 

I see also the talk about insulating old homes as low hanging fruit. This is well wide of the mark. Ok, double glazing and loft insulation, sure, but id hazard a guess, most have that already. The kind of level of insulation required is massively expensive, intrusive and means moving out.

 

Solid wall properties in particular are difficult. People say EWI. Thats likely to be a disaster. Most of these buildings will have damp walls that need/are dried by air. Wrap it up in insulation, where does this moisture go? Straight inside is the answer. Insulating these older properties is a nightmare in most cases, and will also involve undoing already completed inappropiate works and materials. It makes £20k heat pumps installs look like a walk in the park.

 

As above, who will design the solutions, who will do the work? There is not the understanding or skills to do this at scale. Simply not going to happen. If it does, it will be a shitshow of cock ups.

 

Ive got an older property, 1850's stone cottage with a 70's extension at the back. Whilst sound, its a thermal catastophe. To do this propely will need it stripped back to bare stone, insulat walls with wool board or similar, but not too much otherwise walls will get to cold putting the dewpoint inside the wall. To insulate the slopy bits of celing needs the tiles, battens and roof felt off. Its got dormers too. Even bigger nightmare as there simply isnt room for decent levels on insulation, unless enlarged. Floor is solid concrete on mud. So all that needs to come out. 70;s bit could be cavity insulation/EPS beads. If that could get done, and done well for under £40k id be impressed. Plus that £20k heat pump install on top. And ill have to live somewhere else while its done. 

 

This simply isnt realistic. Anyone who thinks it is is nuts. This isnt going to happen at scale.

 

So Jamespa is right, it needs a simple, effective retrofit solution. But theres no motivation for anyone to do it.

 

And all that before we get onto the human factors already discussed. Educate the public on new heating systems? Forget it it. We are talking about people who let a kid die in a mouldy house because no one could work out it needed ventlation to get humidity under control. Anyone who thinks the public can be educated on this subject is more nuts than those above who think insulating old properties at scale is doable.

Edited April 26, 2023 by Roger440

[JamesPa]

1 hour ago, Roger440 said:

I see also the talk about insulating old homes as low hanging fruit. This is well wide of the mark. Ok, double glazing and loft insulation, sure, but id hazard a guess, most have that already. The kind of level of insulation required is massively expensive, intrusive and means moving out.

Quite so, as you say a lot of homes (myself included) have already done the easy stuff, the next step in the decarbonisation is ASHP, currently being made difficult, I would say impossible, by the industry.  That doesnt mean that a continual focus on insulation isnt necessary, it is, but its just one part of the problem and here we are dealing with the other part.

 

Oddly enough this is one area where govt seem to have got it about right.  If your EPC recommends cavity wall insulation or loft insulation, you dont get a grant until you have done those.  These are the big bang for the (disruption and monetary buck) interventions.  Personally I would add double glazing which, although quite expensive, is relatively easy, but I can live with the govt's approach.

 

1 hour ago, Roger440 said:

This simply isnt realistic. Anyone who thinks it is is nuts. This isnt going to happen at scale.

 

Again spot on which is why I started this thread.  An neither is the taxpayer going to subsidise it at scale.

 

1 hour ago, Roger440 said:

So Jamespa is right, it needs a simple, effective retrofit solution. But theres no motivation for anyone to do it.

 

and there, I fear, is the rub.  The installation industry is probably happy with the current high price, low volume, closed shop approach.  The manufacturing industry does care, but would probably be content to ignore the awkward UK market and just serve the EU.   Yes it reduces the volume a bit, but unlikely to be enough to dent their profits materially and anyway the UK will probably adopt different standards just because it can which causes them more hassle than its worth.

 

So the upshot is we lag behind and undermine global efforts to combat climate change.  Yet we like to regard ourselves as major influencers on the world stage.  Great!

Edited April 26, 2023 by JamesPa

[JamesPa]

1 hour ago, Roger440 said:

But as already noted, whose interest is it in to do £4k installs? 

 

On second thoughts there is actually an answer to this question - local plumbers.  Typically one man bands or small companies.  Its their bread and butter and many of them take pride in their reputation.  However they are excluded from the market by the MCS/fly-by-night-special- purpose-company alliance and, because local plumbers have plenty of work anyway, they don't care.  Furthermore because the MCS/fly-by-night-special-purpose-company alliance hasn't got a motivation (or, so far as they have published a roadmap) to scale up, local plumbers aren't under any threat in the foreseeable future, so aren't going to bother.

 

Proposals for further regulation of the HP market were reported recently https://www.phamnews.co.uk/calls-for-a-legal-minimum-qualification-for-heat-pump-installers/, potentially further excluding the people who are the bread and butter of the central heating retrofit market.  Not sure how that will help.

 

So far as I can make out (somebody please correct me) the only credible delivery mechanism for £M1.5+ heat pumps per year is the local plumbing industry, yet they are excluded.  

[Roger440]

1 hour ago, JamesPa said:

On second thoughts there is actually an answer to this question - local plumbers.  Typically one man bands or small companies.  Its their bread and butter and many of them take pride in their reputation.  However they are excluded from the market by the MCS/fly-by-night-special- purpose-company alliance and, because local plumbers have plenty of work anyway, they don't care.  Furthermore because the MCS/fly-by-night-special-purpose-company alliance hasn't got a motivation (or, so far as they have published a roadmap) to scale up, local plumbers aren't under any threat in the foreseeable future, so aren't going to bother.

 

Proposals for further regulation of the HP market were reported recently https://www.phamnews.co.uk/calls-for-a-legal-minimum-qualification-for-heat-pump-installers/, potentially further excluding the people who are the bread and butter of the central heating retrofit market.  Not sure how that will help.

 

So far as I can make out (somebody please correct me) the only credible delivery mechanism for £M1.5+ heat pumps per year is the local plumbing industry, yet they are excluded.  

 

Good summary.

 

Introducing a qualification will limit an already contrained supply of people.

 

Its also worth noting, though you say the answer is "local plumbers", many, if not most of these wil not be able to "step up" to the complexities of the new tech.  Qualifications or otherwise

 

A common problem in lots of industries. The tech moves on, like cars (my field) but the people dont. Cant. You need a smarter grade of people. But those people are simply not going to work in a cold draughty workshop. Why would they? Hence we arrive where we are. Lots of cars not getting fixed. Its going to get much worse.

 

Sadly, ive long concluded that that government live in a parallel universe.

 

Its all fine and good having great ideas, but if they cant be delivered, its all rather pointkess. Neither insulating homes or installing heat pumps can happen quickly. A 30 year horizon is probably realistic, 2035 or 2030 (if you are starmer) is pie in the sky. By 2030 means 77000 installs a week, starting now. We did 42000 last YEAR.

 

The ZEV vehicle proposals will go the same way. The end result of these is the existing vehicle fleet will remain in service for much much longer, simply through necessity. Especially the light commercial fleet. The exact opposite of the intention.

Edited April 26, 2023 by Roger440

[JamesPa]

24 minutes ago, Roger440 said:

Its also worth noting, though you say the answer is "local plumbers", many, if not most of these wil not be able to "step up" to the complexities of the new tech.  Qualifications or otherwise

 

Well the actual plumbing is simpler than a gas boiler, and any ancillary changes, if they are needed, are local plumbers bread and butter.  So I would say that they are already qualified to do the actual install. 

 

The challenge is the assessment of the requirement and configuration, although it really shouldn't be beyond the wit of a local plumber to understand weather compensation and and some of the settings to tell the HP what system looks like (at least to a standard no worse than the 'industry' is currently achieving, which, from the reports, doesn't seem to be particularly good).

 

So I would reckon that a very good proportion could step up to the job with a bit of training and perhaps some triaging/simplification of the assessment and in particular basing system sizing not on calculation (which seems anyway, based on the report referred to upthread, to deliver rubbish results) but instead on experimental data (how much gas do you consume, or, give me your smart meter data?).

 

Is it really beyond us to come up with a methodology that works in, say, 80% of situations and a local plumber can master.  I think, if we conclude 'no', there will be a lot of local plumbers out there who feel extremely insulted, for good reason.

 

I cant personally see a credible alternative delivery mechanism, even with your 30 year timescale, so Im not sure we actually have a choice.

Edited April 26, 2023 by JamesPa

[Radian]

3 hours ago, Roger440 said:

Id agree with much that Jamespa has said. There will be little progress in the rate on installation at current prices, subsidy or not.

 

Didn't the £5K BUS subsidy just push up the 'installation and supply' cost by £5K?

Like when new solar panel installations got zero VAT rated and suddenly all the quotes we got went up by around 20%

[Roger440]

12 minutes ago, Radian said:

Didn't the £5K BUS subsidy just push up the 'installation and supply' cost by £5K?

Like when new solar panel installations got zero VAT rated and suddenly all the quotes we got went up by around 20%

 

Of course

[DamonHD]

This thread is amazing, thanks @JamesPa and everyone else!

 

FWIW I came across this rather good paper:

 

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/cost-optimal-domestic-electrification-code

 

which talks about total cost of ownership of various electrified alternatives to gas heating, ie including the CAPEX and OPEX.

 

Rgds

 

Damon

 

PS. I have an ulterior motive to be following this thread: I have started research to try to make this decarbonisation of heat (for UK homes already standing) work as well as possible: https://www.earth.org.uk/PhD-research.html

[MikeSharp01]

12 minutes ago, Radian said:

Didn't the £5K BUS subsidy just push up the 'installation and supply' cost by £5K?

Like when new solar panel installations got zero VAT rated and suddenly all the quotes we got went up by around 20%

Same with help to buy and many others, feels like a quick win to HMG for two reasons: 1. They can say they are actually doing something and 2. they ensure they put public money into the pockets of their core supporters. Why wouldn't you do it?

[MikeSharp01]

25 minutes ago, JamesPa said:

I cant personally see a credible alternative delivery mechanism, even with your 30 year timescale, so Im not sure we actually have a choice.

Are you proposing a final answer to your original post or just thinking out loud here. No choice implies just that, no choice, but thinking out of the box might imply some choice at least and hope dies last. 

[Roger440]

30 minutes ago, JamesPa said:

Well the actual plumbing is simpler than a gas boiler, and any ancillary changes, if they are needed, are local plumbers bread and butter.  So I would say that they are already qualified to do the actual install. 

 

The challenge is the assessment of the requirement and configuration, although it really shouldn't be beyond the wit of a local plumber to understand weather compensation and and some of the settings to tell the HP what system looks like (at least to a standard no worse than the 'industry' is currently achieving, which, from the reports, doesn't seem to be particularly good).

 

So I would reckon that a very good proportion could step up to the job with a bit of training and perhaps some triaging/simplification of the assessment and in particular basing system sizing not on calculation (which seems anyway, based on the report referred to upthread, to deliver rubbish results) but instead on experimental data (how much gas do you consume, or, give me your smart meter data?).

 

Is it really beyond us to come up with a methodology that works in, say, 80% of situations and a local plumber can master.  I think, if we conclude 'no', there will be a lot of local plumbers out there who feel extremely insulted, for good reason.

 

I cant personally see a credible alternative delivery mechanism, even with your 30 year timescale, so Im not sure we actually have a choice.

 

But who is going to come up with a process thats easy to follow and applies across the board?

 

It will just be left to the individuals to figure it out. Sure, actually fitting it to an existing system isnt complicated, but specifying it correctly is.

 

Unless you want to nationalise HP fitting?

 

Edited to add, maybe the "local plumbers" are the fitting force, but someone else specifies?

 

Im not sure energy usage, even if its available is that helpful. i know people who run there homes at 16/17c and a quite happy with that. i like 20/21. The difference in gas consumption though is significant.

 

It cant be beyond the wit of man to do a "test" to measure actual heat loss if we know outside temp, inside temp and energy use in a defined period. But again, who will devise such a thing. Whose interest is it in. Answer again is nobodies that could actually do it.

 

Edited April 26, 2023 by Roger440

[JamesPa]

10 minutes ago, Roger440 said:

 

But who is going to come up with a process thats easy to follow and applies across the board?

 

It will just be left to the individuals to figure it out. Sure, actually fitting it to an existing system isnt complicated, but specifying it correctly is.

 

Unless you want to nationalise HP fitting?

 

Edited to add, maybe the "local plumbers" are the fitting force, but someone else specifies?

 

Im not sure energy usage, even if its available is that helpful. i know people who run there homes at 16/17c and a quite happy with that. i like 20/21. The difference in gas consumption though is significant.

 

It cant be beyond the wit of man to do a "test" to measure actual heat loss if we know outside temp, inside temp and energy use in a defined period. But again, who will devise such a thing. Whose interest is it in. Answer again is nobodies that could actually do it.

 

All fair and all of which can be summarised as: who has the motivation to solve the problem we have to solve to be successful in replacing our heating sufficiently fast to achieve our climate goals?

 

The reason for Government is, at least in part, to do (or have done) the things that are necessary but the market doesn't have a motivation to do, or alternatively to tilt the market is some way such that it does have the motivation to do those necessary things.  So I think we know whose job it is.

 

Oh well, shall give up now then?

 

(PS, I don't want to nationalise HP fitting, my view is that the market needs to be liberalised so that local plumbers can engage, not be excluded as they currently are).

Edited April 26, 2023 by JamesPa

[Roger440]

4 minutes ago, JamesPa said:

All fair and all of which can be summarised as: who has the motivation to solve the problem we have to solve to be successful in replacing our heating sufficiently fast to achieve our climate goals?

 

The reason for Government is, at least in part, to do (or have done) the things that are necessary but the market doesn't have a motivation to do, or alternatively to tilt the market is some way such that it does have the motivation to do those necessary things.  So I think we know whose job it is.

 

Oh well, shall give up now then?

 

(PS, I don't want to nationalise HP fitting, my view is that the market needs to be liberalised so that local plumbers can engage, not be excluded as they currently are).

 

Yes, i would give up. Based on whose job it is. Its simply not going to happen. Cant happen. 

 

Even if everyone involved wanted the same thing it cant happen. As not everyone involved wants the same thing it simply reduces the likelihood still further if thats even possible.

 

 

 

[markocosic]

15 hours ago, Roger440 said:

But who is going to come up with a process thats easy to follow and applies across the board?

 

Firms that add automation in lead/project management and surveying/design; perhaps also supply chain financing clout; to your average plumber. For a fee to the plumber that's well worth it.

 

https://lun.energy/

https://techcrunch.com/2023/03/22/lun-seed/

 

https://skoon.energy/

https://www.heatgeek.com/

 

https://www.thermondo.de/

 

etc 

 

Busy space.

 

Lots of the task is automateable. It still relies on local trades and an element of judgement/gut feel though. These firms are targeting those trades. Augmenting them with software tools to work faster.

 

Separately OVO, E.ON, British Gas, Octopus et al are seeking to dumb the process down so completely that a full time employed chimpanzee can do the retrofit.

 

Both of these will be where standardised approaches come from.

 

The MCS will not achieve it BUT until such a time as government stops making singing from their hymn sheet part a condition for £5k an installation they'll continue with a compliance scheme with which compliance is optional and installs that are a lucky dip box of frogs.

[JamesPa]

27 minutes ago, markocosic said:

 

Firms that add automation in lead/project management and surveying/design; perhaps also supply chain financing clout; to your average plumber. For a fee to the plumber that's well worth it.

 

https://lun.energy/

https://techcrunch.com/2023/03/22/lun-seed/

 

https://skoon.energy/

https://www.heatgeek.com/

 

https://www.thermondo.de/

 

etc 

 

Busy space.

 

Lots of the task is automateable. It still relies on local trades and an element of judgement/gut feel though. These firms are targeting those trades. Augmenting them with software tools to work faster.

 

Separately OVO, E.ON, British Gas, Octopus et al are seeking to dumb the process down so completely that a full time employed chimpanzee can do the retrofit.

 

Both of these will be where standardised approaches come from.

 

The MCS will not achieve it BUT until such a time as government stops making singing from their hymn sheet part a condition for £5k an installation they'll continue with a compliance scheme with which compliance is optional and installs that are a lucky dip box of frogs.

Well at least some element of optimism has returned at last, thanks!  Seriously!   And thanks for the comment on MCS too, it feels, from interactions on this forum and elsewhere, that MCS is the root of many evils.

 

So, back to the solution.   I can readily believe that the design/assessment process can be automated/simplified.  However the actual plumbing cant be (I dont think).  Currently we replace much good stuff with alternative good stuff, causing much cost and disruption, how much of that is necessary, what would it take to make it unnecessary, what tests do we need to do to find out if the current installation is adequate?

 

So can we get away in many or most cases with not replacing

 

a)the DHW tank

b)the cold feed to the DHW tank

c)the primary feeds to the Central heating

d)feeds to the radiators

e)miscellaneous things like mag filters etc

f)things that are anyway counterproductive like room thermostats (other than any in the HP controller itself), timers etc

 

 

Some of the quotes I have received form our illustrious industry included replacing all of these except d, and one involved fitting a Nest thermostat (really?)

 

My feeling is that the answer, in many cases, is that we could get away with not replacing much of this, sometimes with a small performance penalty, sometimes with none..

 

My fear is that the industry replaces them all in order that they can justify fitting the manufacturer supplied pre-plumbed cylinder which means that they have to know diddly-squat about the system that they are installing and can employ rookie plumbers to do the install.

 

Am I wrong and whats the answer?  Is it to separate out system design and installation (as we do with building - architects and builders are separately employed by the customer).  Currently MCS expressly forbids this!

 

Again ideas, preferably positive, on a postcard please.

Edited April 27, 2023 by JamesPa

[ProDave]

So if the bottleneck is installers (assuming supply could then keep up if the installers could be found) then the solution has to be simplify heat pump controls.

 

They already mimic a system boiler from a plumbing perspective, in that they just have water flow and return.  It is the electrical controls that complicate things.

 

I have already mentioned the Grant ASHP's seem nearest to that at the moment with just a call for heat for HW and a separate one for heating.  Surely that is not too much of a step change for the average electrician wiring a heating system to get used to two separate call for heat commands?

 

Plumbing wise, dump any 3 port mid position valve and replace with two 2 port valves or a 3 port 2 position valve.

 

So there you have a relatively simple swap a system boiler for an ASHP with little change. BUT the water temperature maxing at 55 degrees may not be enough and it won't be optimum efficiency. 

 

So now you offer customers a choice.  Simple swap with little plumbing alterations for a cheap price, BUT warn them of the lower temperature and that it may under perform.  Then offer the upgrades, new larger heat pump cylinder, larger radiators IF they find they need them.

 

Of course for the huge percentage oh homes with a combi boiler and no HW tank you have to fit a HW cylinder with a heat pump, so many will see that as too expensive and unnecessary.

 

Like the discussion in the GW thread about cars, what is likely to happen is people won't be swapping heat pumps in anything like the required volumes and if new boilers become impossible to get the immediate task will be maintaining ever ageing boilers.  Lets hope the spares supply side steps up, once the easy option of replace rather than fix has gone.

[joe90]

3 minutes ago, ProDave said:

then the solution has to be simplify heat pump controls.

+1, I managed to source the proper controller fir my heat pump and found it soo complicated, luckily our Jeremy had the same, and despite him being a wizard at all things complicated and programmable he also found it very difficult to fathom 🤯

[ProDave]

6 minutes ago, joe90 said:

+1, I managed to source the proper controller fir my heat pump and found it soo complicated, luckily our Jeremy had the same, and despite him being a wizard at all things complicated and programmable he also found it very difficult to fathom 🤯

I have mentioned before the supplied controller with my LG heat pump is well beyond the ability of most folk over the age of 20 to understand.  I chose to control mine from a normal boiler time clock that most people understand.  I had to get quite inventive to mimic a "call for heat" input for the HW to the heat pump to control that from a simple time switch.