Where is the kWh price heading in 2022?

[SteamyTea]

4 minutes ago, ProDave said:

This is one customer who thinks it will be cheaper.

I am not so sure.

Say oil is available at 60p/litre.

To just produce electricity from a diesel generator will probably have an efficiency of no more than 25%, and at small loads 10%.

There are roughly 10 kWh in a litre of diesel, so somewhere between 2.5 kWh and 1 kWh of electricity, so at 60p/litre between 24p/kWh and 60p/kWh, with the vast majority being at the lower end (a few hundred watts).

Different if you can get some thermal energy from it as well, and store electricity, but the capital cost becomes high. 

[NSS]

7 hours ago, Ferdinand said:

 

Yes - interesting.

 

I'm also hearing noises about a reform of the electricity market, which is also being contemplated by the European Commission for those countries whose markets they control.

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-weigh-option-power-market-reform-bloc-race-gas-storage/

 

A question here from Sir Peter Bottomley trying to get the Planning Inspectorate castrated in favour of Nimbies is interesting:

 

F

 

Which translates to, we can't risk falling house prices in affluent constituencies.

[SteamyTea]

45 minutes ago, NSS said:

Which translates to, we can't risk falling house prices in affluent constituencies.

We had a huge property price drop between 1989 and 1991, the same government still got elected in.

[Ferdinand]

1 hour ago, NSS said:

 

Which translates to, we can't risk falling house prices in affluent constituencies.

 

Unfortunately, perhaps possibly. Though the Q was related specifically to Green Belt between villages, and the reply was noncommital (important issue; Minnister will look at it - sensible by PM Truss).

 

And there will be a real problem kneecapping the Planning Insprectorate, as they are the ones who define the interpretation of planning law in almost al cases.

[Ferdinand]

2 hours ago, NSS said:

 

Which translates to, we can't risk falling house prices in affluent constituencies.

 

Unfortunately, perhaps possibly. Though the Q was related specifically to Green Belt between villages, and the reply was noncommital (important issue; Minister will look at it - sensible by Liz Truss).

 

And there will be a real problem kneecapping the Planning Insprectorate, as they are the ones who define the interpretation of planning law in almost al cases.

 

1 hour ago, SteamyTea said:

We had a huge property price drop between 1989 and 1991, the same government still got elected in.

 

It's intensely political. LDs won a couple of byelections in the S recently  by turbo-pandering to Nimbies, and Home Counties Tories.

 

The Tories have not forgotten how Devon / Cornwall was largely LD up until 2015, and the LDs are targeting the 'Blue Wall'.

 

[ToughButterCup]

12 minutes ago, Ferdinand said:

...

And there will be a real problem kneecapping the Planning Insprectorate, as they are the ones who define the interpretation of planning law in almost al cases.

 

Forgot that...... good point.  

[Ferdinand]

2 hours ago, joe90 said:

I think that’s one and the same, most western free nations are trying to help another free nation from aggression and invasion, despite Putin alleging aggression from the west financially it’s simply non military support. The Ukrainians voted to be free of the old USSR. 

 

The dstinction I am drawing is between eg supplying 20 vehicles capable of long term precision strikes (HIMARS / M270), which has destabilised the supply lines of Russian forces and driven back eg supply bases and airfields, or supplying 100 (which is what Ukr said they needed) and the long range ATACMS missiles 1-2 months ago, which would have let Ukr sink the entire Back Sea Fleet at it's moorings and destroy the Kerch Bridge (for a start).

 

But there are a lot of cross- and undercurrents.

 

One of them is the amount of Ukrainian farmland now owned by foreign investment, including Western, interests - a huge issue in Ukraine, given the history of confiscation and collectivation, weak rule of law etc.

https://www.oaklandinstitute.org/blog/who-really-benefits-creation-land-market-ukraine

 

An issue to watch in relations with the EU and USA.

 

F

 

 

[SteamyTea]

37 minutes ago, Ferdinand said:

The Tories have not forgotten how Devon / Cornwall was largely LD up until 2015, and the LDs are targeting the 'Blue Wall'.

The recent details are here:

https://electionresults.parliament.uk/election/2016-05-05/results/Location/County/Cornwall

 

Seems the Tories and LDs where in lockstep until 2010, then the LDs lost support.

I wonder what happened in 2010 to make the bigots down here change their minds.  Must have been a local MP misbehaving, as we take no notice of what happens up country.

The Tories are only where they are because the LDs and Labour lost support.  Even the Greens and UKIP (what happened to them) had the same pattern of increase after 2010.

Edited September 8, 2022 by SteamyTea

[joe90]

Interesting article (not read or understood it all) I also read that the EU recognised existing  corruption in the Ukraine when considering their EU membership. However I believe the ownership of the land relating to foreign companies is a lesser evil than invasion and destruction by Putin.

[Ferdinand]

36 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

The recent details are here:

https://electionresults.parliament.uk/election/2016-05-05/results/Location/County/Cornwall

 

Seems the Tories and LDs where in lockstep until 2010, then the LDs lost support.

I wonder what happened in 2010 to make the bigots down here change their minds.  Must have been a local MP misbehaving, as we take no notice of what happens up country.

The Tories are only where they are because the LDs and Labour lost support.  Even the Greens and UKIP (what happened to them) had the same pattern of increase after 2010.

 

The earthquake was 2015, rather than 2010 - though the seeds were 2010..

 

2010 was the coalition Government.

2015 the Tories scooped nearly all the seats in the SW - LDs went from 15 to zero.

 

Factors include the minor partner in a coalition usually suffers, the Tories ran a very good micro-targeted campaign in 2015, and perhaps the loss of the Referendum for voting reform. It was also a "vote Labour, get SNP" election, when the SNP won 56 from 59 seats in Scotland.

 

[Ferdinand]

1 hour ago, joe90 said:

Interesting article (not read or understood it all) I also read that the EU recognised existing  corruption in the Ukraine when considering their EU membership. However I believe the ownership of the land relating to foreign companies is a lesser evil than invasion and destruction by Putin.

 

It may be an issue in a future EU accession given Brussels' commitment to defending its incumbents' interests first, but that is the least of anyone's current problems.

[Ferdinand]

4 hours ago, ToughButterCup said:

R4 Today talking about using Diesel generators for power generation.  

 

What price does the KwH have to be in order for us make it worth our while to use a Diesel genny?

 

@SteamyTea ?

 

The diesel one is interesting.

We already have a lot (can't find how many) of diesel generator farms connected to the grid as a small part (~10%; much of it is gas power stations) of the Short Term Operating Reserve (STOR) a backup for interruptions in service for overwhelmingly maintenance and outages and (about <10%) for renewables backups.

 

Is that what the BBC are talking about? There's an occasional Daily Mail flap about "renewables causing more diesel use", always dominated by fake figures and a spittle-flecked outrage bus.

 

They usually have about 200 hours a year of use - a very good stable cashflow from infrastructure for the likes of pension funds and Nicola Horlicks' organisation, who invested £100m around 2015.

 

So if they are being increased in use, the rates would need to be renegotiated if the top rate use period is not capped. Also a potential Nimby explosion.

 

It seems sensible to allow for further usage, as one of the myriad of small measures.

[Radian]

Does today's price cap announcment mean something in the region of 36p per kWh for the next two years? Or have I done the sums wrong.

[SteamyTea]

8 minutes ago, Ferdinand said:

Also a potential Nimby explosion.

Don't tell them that hospital have them. 

 

I think it is about time that everyone realised that power is not delivered from just one source.

All countries need a mix of sources, it is just the fraction of each that seems to be misunderstood.

I can play with figures and create a number of different scenarios to achieve the same end i.e. adequate power 99.9% of the time. I could show prices and delivery based on historic data (it's all there for anyone to look at).

I could even throw in environmental issues.

But it will make not one jot of difference to most people as they take no interest in it, and even less willing to learn about it.

The best thing would be to let the National Grid sort out the size and location of generation installations (they know how to manage what they have incredibly well), then invite tenders from the generation companies.

So planning rules will have to be overturned, but it is about time individuals realised they don't, through a fluke of wealth and location, have the right to deny others what they can easily afford.

 

To show, in an odd way  how fickle people are, the tourist figures for August came out yesterday. Allowing for rounding, Cornwall had 1 million less visitor trips.

So about 20% down.

Cornwall has not changed, except we had very little rain this summer, prices have not changed much, no travel restrictions and the people down here still hate the Emmets.

Where did they all go, abroad or stayed at home?

 

[Radian]

1 hour ago, SteamyTea said:

or stayed at home

Judging to a landscaper I was talking to, People are trying to improve their own places and staying there.

[joe90]

2 minutes ago, Radian said:

Judging to a landscaper I was talking to, People are trying to improve their own places and staying there.

I have been hearing that fir years.

[Ferdinand]

Liz Truss speech on Energy Savings, which seems to have got most of it about right so far:

 

 

But by all accounts far larger news is about to break.

 

Even Harry and Meghan are heading to Edinburgh to be near HMQ. London Bridge, perhaps. 

[SteamyTea]

So we are keeping the £400 grant, spread over 6 months.

Shall have to see how much extra I need to add to my readings to get all of that.

100 quid is gobbled up by meter rental, so that leaves 300 quid for usage.

If my night rate is 22p/kWh, that is roughly 1,400 kWh over the 6 months (from October), about an extra 8 kWh/day.

I am going to have a warm house, or a lot of credit.

[ProDave]

15 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

So we are keeping the £400 grant, spread over 6 months.

Shall have to see how much extra I need to add to my readings to get all of that.

I doubt the grant cares.  If the grant is more than your usage, you will just be in credit a bit.

[ProDave]

Details are lacking yet but there is talk of all tariffs just being reduced by a certain pence per kWh, which could mean some people (me) on a fixed rate seeing a drop in price when this new cap comes in.  That would be nice.

[Kelvin]

If the grant is more than your usage I expect the energy supplier will just credit the difference to your energy account. It would be somewhat mental to create a situation where people need to use more energy to make sure they get the grant. It ought to be means tested anyway. 
 

 

[Radian]

21 minutes ago, Kelvin said:

It ought to be means tested anyway. 

Amen to that.

[SimonD]

What are the bets that there are going to be some rather large unforeseen and unintended consequences as a result of the rapid knocking up of the rescue package?

[Kelvin]

Highly likely. There’s no accounting for people and how they respond  in the equations really. I know they modelled this for the COVID response. 

[markc]

50 minutes ago, SimonD said:

What are the bets that there are going to be some rather large unforeseen and unintended consequences as a result of the rapid knocking up of the rescue package?

Evens! Every action has an equal and opposite, pity most people are just greedy and want everything now. .. short term gain means long term pain