Temp Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 Telegraph is reporting.. "Rough gas storage site cleared to start filling up within weeks" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AliG Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 Filling up gas storage at this point would be moronic. It would increase demand sending prices higher. Supply is already severely restricted. You stockpile things when they are cheaper than usual, not 10x the normal price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gone West Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 28 minutes ago, AliG said: You stockpile things when they are cheaper than usual, not 10x the normal price. Only when you're trying to save money. When you're trying to ensure continuity of supply you need to store at any price. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Temp Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 Oil has now fallen to $88. This is less than it was before Russia invaded Ukraine. Yet petrol and Heating Oil prices are still way up there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnMo Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 Oil price haven't got to levels they were at during the five years, 2010 to 2015. Think the issue is not the oil price, but processing capacity; as we out sourced most things (diesel and petrol) to other countries like Russia to make a CO2 emissions look good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AliG Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 Oil is mainly a global commodity. It’s price is falling as people worry about slower economic growth impacting demand. Gas is a more localised commodity as there is not enough capacity to move it between continents. You have to convert it to LNG to ship it which is expensive and has limited capacity. Most of it is piped. As Russia constitutes around 40% of European gas supply there is no way of getting alternative supplies to cover the shortfall from Russia. The price has risen in the US but is now considerably lower than in Europe, it has mainly risen as they can export LNG to Europe which has increased demand. As gas is mainly used to produce electricity and for heating there is little demand elasticity and it is less affected by an economic slowdown. Thus the price can and has risen considerably. The current wholesale price of gas in the U.K. is almost £5 per therm, or 17p per kWh. The US price is around $9 per MMBtu or 3c per kWh. It has still risen considerably over the last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteamyTea Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 57 minutes ago, Temp said: $ The $ to £ exchange rate makes a difference as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kommando Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 1 hour ago, AliG said: Filling up gas storage at this point would be moronic. It would increase demand sending prices higher. Supply is already severely restricted. You stockpile things when they are cheaper than usual, not 10x the normal price. The UK has the LNG terminals that Europe currently lacks and there are ships queueing up to off load, any surplus is being fed to Europe via the gaslines. Some of these ships are being turned away so it does make sense to use Rough so these ships can offload instead of being sent elsewhere. A request to allow pressure on the gaslines to Europe to be increased allowing more flow has been requested which would also be beneficial. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AliG Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, kommando said: The UK has the LNG terminals that Europe currently lacks and there are ships queueing up to off load, any surplus is being fed to Europe via the gaslines. Some of these ships are being turned away so it does make sense to use Rough so these ships can offload instead of being sent elsewhere. A request to allow pressure on the gaslines to Europe to be increased allowing more flow has been requested which would also be beneficial. Fair point as I know the spot price of gas has been low on some days recently due to short term supply chain issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kommando Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 On Monday I was quoted 79.5p per L for heating oil, or 7.9p per Kwh, the price is currently dropping in line with the oil price coupled with demand for heating oil being low in summer. Regardless of what happens to oil prices once the heating season starts and the Russian heating oil not available then heating oil price margin over the base oil barrel price will increase with possible shortages. This will also be affected by German manufacturers plans to use oil instead of gas where possible over winter. So I plan to fill the tank in the next few weeks once the barrel oil price stabilises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Temp Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 1 hour ago, kommando said: On Monday I was quoted 79.5p per L for heating oil, or 7.9p per Kwh, the price is currently dropping... Well it was until a few days ago. According to BoilerJuice it's gone up last 4 days in a row. I have a nearly empty tank and need to order soon. 2 hours ago, JohnMo said: Think the issue is not the oil price, but processing capacity; as we out sourced most things (diesel and petrol) to other countries like Russia to make a CO2 emissions look good. Sounds like it. I've been seeing articles like these .. "German Oil Refiner Is Seeing ‘Run on Heating Oil and Diesel" https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-04/oil-refiner-omv-germany-seeing-run-on-heating-oil-and-diesel "According to Wood Mackenzie, the continent’s stocks of road diesel, heating oil, and other diesel-type fuel are likely to shrivel this November to the lowest level since records began, dating back to the beginning of 2011" https://www.offshore-technology.com/news/europe-set-to-be-short-of-diesel-fuel-in-winter/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteamyTea Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 40 minutes ago, Temp said: road diesel Better start looking for a cheap plugin petrol hybrid. Just need something that can do 40 miles on just electric power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kommando Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 47 minutes ago, Temp said: I have a nearly empty tank and need to order soon. That's my plan too even if I could go to Feb with what I have. Feb never has good prices and with the refining flows all wrong it will be even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pocster Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 Just seen this 😞 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ferdinand Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 On 17/08/2022 at 08:22, Temp said: Oil has now fallen to $88. This is less than it was before Russia invaded Ukraine. Yet petrol and Heating Oil prices are still way up there. Are they? I track diesel, and locally it is now back down from a peak of just under £2.00 per litre to £1.79. Some way to go, but it has started. One interesting observation I have seen wrt Liz Truss is that because fuel went up by 75% ish in 12 months ago to now, that is actually a lot to begin dropping out of the annual inflation index very soon. Diesel and petrol have a 3.8% weighting in CPI. On Energy Charges, the going-bust peak was summer / autumn 2021 - so standing charge may go some way back down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ferdinand Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 On 17/08/2022 at 09:33, AliG said: Fair point as I know the spot price of gas has been low on some days recently due to short term supply chain issues. UK gas power stations are also being run as it is beneficial to generate electricity here as an extra to supply the continent through the network of interconnectors - an alternative to shipping gas though the extra pipelines that don't exist. At the moment, we are exporting 3GW to France for example - which is about 10% of everything we are generating. Whilst their current demand is 40 GW (presumably including exports), so their net demand will be ~45 GW. Interesting - they have 2-3GW coming in from each of UK, DE and SP, and have maxed out exports to CH, and some to IT. Perhaps that is Switzerland turning its hydropower down like Norway? F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ferdinand Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 On 11/08/2022 at 10:13, Temp said: Just before the pandemic some energy companies were setting up tariffs that paid you to use electricity at certain times of low demand. Seems like a distant memory.. https://www.energylivenews.com/2018/02/22/want-to-get-paid-to-use-electricity/ I am now moving onto Octopus Agile Outgoing, which gives me a wholesale price for exports, and to keep my existing tariff for imports. Which at present seems a one way bet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pocster Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ferdinand said: I am now moving onto Octopus Agile Outgoing, which gives me a wholesale price for exports, and to keep my existing tariff for imports. Which at present seems a one way bet. I’ve just renewed my octopus go . Off peak up from 5p to 7.5p ; standing charge doubled . Still ; I think a lot worse is to come for people whose contract expires as we approach winter …. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Onoff Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeSharp01 Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 2 hours ago, Ferdinand said: I am now moving onto Octopus Agile Outgoing Octopus not taking on new clients for this yet, I tried last week. They say we should stick with our current supplier, EDF, but I figure that if I install the PV now, about a year to go until occupation, I could get some income as we only use a couple of kWh a week on site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pocster Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger440 Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 On 17/08/2022 at 10:14, kommando said: On Monday I was quoted 79.5p per L for heating oil, or 7.9p per Kwh, the price is currently dropping in line with the oil price coupled with demand for heating oil being low in summer. Regardless of what happens to oil prices once the heating season starts and the Russian heating oil not available then heating oil price margin over the base oil barrel price will increase with possible shortages. This will also be affected by German manufacturers plans to use oil instead of gas where possible over winter. So I plan to fill the tank in the next few weeks once the barrel oil price stabilises. Just filled my oil tank. Its a crazy world when heating with oil is substantially cheaper than heating with gas. One wonders at what point its cheaper to fire up my generator and connect to a set of batteries, than buying from the grid? Might be there already for non domestic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ferdinand Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 3 hours ago, MikeSharp01 said: Octopus not taking on new clients for this yet, I tried last week. They say we should stick with our current supplier, EDF, but I figure that if I install the PV now, about a year to go until occupation, I could get some income as we only use a couple of kWh a week on site. I'm already with Octopus on another tariff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ferdinand Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 2 hours ago, pocster said: Grant Shapps is hopefully about to be kicked out of the window on the tenth floor by his miserable, self-serving, unethical arse. (Opinionated - moi?) He has abused his position as Minister of Transport to use the Civil Service to support sectional interests he supports, and cannot be trusted. Such an individual is not fit for a junior position, never mind a senior one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AliG Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 5 hours ago, Ferdinand said: I am now moving onto Octopus Agile Outgoing, which gives me a wholesale price for exports, and to keep my existing tariff for imports. Which at present seems a one way bet. Are you on Go or Intelligent? They won't let you have Outgoing Agile if you are on one of these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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