Electricity price hike

[SteamyTea]

4 minutes ago, MikeSharp01 said:

Perhaps an AI could do it?

Ask Google.

AI is not very good.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newscientist.com/article/2282240-ais-dont-understand-simple-physics-like-a-ball-rolling-down-a-hill/amp/

[MikeSharp01]

I wonder how one would one go about designing a COMBI ASHP for a passive house without a storage tank. IE tiny heating load and relatively large DHW demand from time to time? Two ASHPs!

[MikeSharp01]

1 minute ago, SteamyTea said:

AI is not very good.

They are not good for much but if we fed all the designs for heating systems in and found a metric for measuring how 'good' they were we could get our AI to validate our design in the same way they validate a road sign in a self driving car - classifying is what they are very good at. 

[SteamyTea]

1 minute ago, MikeSharp01 said:

could get our AI to validate our design in the same way they validate a road sign in a self driving car - classifying is what they are very good at. 

In the same way a Tesla on Autopilot will slam the brakes on when when it sees a speed restriction sign on the back of a truck.

[ProDave]

20 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

What particular problems and why not in badly insulated houses?

 

Take two houses that have the same heat load i.e 30 kW @ -5⁰C.

 Will a correctly sized ASHP under perform just because it is an ASHP, compared to a gas boiler?

Does it even know it is an ASHP?

Does a gas boiler know it will perform better because people on internet forums say it will?

 

Design it right.

If the ASHP is connected to the same "normal" radiators that the gas boiler used to feed, and you are trying to run the ASHP at 60 degrees or more to get the house hot enough, then it will perform very badly.

 

It is what we keep saying, "Design"  An ASHP is not the golden goose to replace a gas boiler UNLESS you re design the whole heating system that may involve changing ALL the radiators or installing UFH.

 

I am willing to bet most of the retro fit ASHP systems we see criticised are "designed by salesman" and are not correct in an engineering sense.

[SteamyTea]

3 minutes ago, ProDave said:

am willing to bet most of the retro fit ASHP systems we see criticised are "designed by salesman" and are not correct in an engineering sense.

Exactly, about time the public learnt this. We, as a nation don't trust government much, but are willing to part with cash to a salesman, while knowing nothing about a product.

[SteamyTea]

10 minutes ago, MikeSharp01 said:

They are not good for much but if we fed all the designs for heating systems in and found a metric for measuring how 'good' they were we could get our AI to validate our design in the same way they validate a road sign in a self driving car - classifying is what they are very good at. 

Part 2.

There is pretty good data here if you fancy playing with a spreadsheet.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/946419/Sub_national_electricity_consumption_statistics_2005-2019.xlsx

[MikeSharp01]

1 minute ago, ProDave said:

I am willing to bet most of the retro fit ASHP systems we see criticised are "designed by salesman" and are not correct in an engineering sense.

+1, the challenge is realise the difference between the old and the new. Right now, as I would out how we adjust things here at millstone manor for the new electricity price of 21p (We cannot switch for reasons I won't go into but it is not anything we did) and the fat that our LPG contract ends in about 8 weeks, I know I could add a few 100mm more insulation in the loft, we have 300 already,  and save a bit but it may be that switching to ASHP but keeping the GAS for DHW or doubling the HW tank capacity (we cannot use a COMBI as water pressure / flow rate is too low) and using the night rate will help as long as I disconnect cap ex from revenue!

[newhome]

2 hours ago, billt said:

 

Despite being a sceptic against the "heat pumps will solve all our problems" theme, yours is actually a case where I would install an ASHP.

But I would design and install it myself, so I'd have a high level of confidence in it working as intended and not being too expensive. It's a problem when you have to rely on costly 'experts' of unknown ability.

I totally agree. I had 3 quotes from MCS registered installers. One quoted an 18kw heat pump and the cost was just shy of 30k, another quoted for a 12kw heat pump @ 15k, and the third an 8kw heat pump @ 12.5k (the UVC seemed way too small too). So I ended up with no confidence about what to do. The other thing that put me off was the fact that heat pumps run much more often than I need to have my boiler on for. As I have a plug in car I would like to move to a time of use tariff and have everything set to run during the cheap period and that doesn’t lend itself to a heat pump. 

[joe90]

39 minutes ago, newhome said:

have everything set to run during the cheap period and that doesn’t lend itself to a heat pump. 

It could if you had large enough DHW tank and underfloor heating.

[SteamyTea]

49 minutes ago, newhome said:

I had 3 quotes from MCS registered installers. One quoted an 18kw heat pump and the cost was just shy of 30k, another quoted for a 12kw heat pump @ 15k, and the third an 8kw heat pump @ 12.5k (the UVC seemed way too small too)

Are you creating a false correlation between HP size and price.  There is more to a proper installation that just the maximum output.

 

1 hour ago, MikeSharp01 said:

the challenge is realise the difference between the old and the new.

Thermodynamics is not exactly new, it is the same formulas that govern it all, and at the domestic heating level, not even complicated ones.

 

How many people on here have read Without Hot Air, which is free and explains most of the issues, then moved on to something like this. 

[DragsterDriver]

2 hours ago, MikeSharp01 said:

But why does this need paying for surely its pretty simple, perhaps we could work out a straightforward process that would lead to a verifiable design and close the loop.

 

2 hours ago, SteamyTea said:

We have discussed to death the merits and drawbacks of different heating systems.

The one thing that keeps cropping up is the lack of justified, and verifiable, design.

Trouble is, no one is willing to pay for it, so what do people expect.

It depends for me on how in depth the design is and cost? If it’s a modest sum and a case of “I have looked at your plans and insulation, I suggest X panels, X cylinder and X heat pump” then it’s great, without getting bogged down.

[SteamyTea]

2 minutes ago, DragsterDriver said:

If it’s a modest sum and a case of “I have looked at your plans and insulation, I suggest X panels, X cylinder and X heat pump” then it’s great, without getting bogged down.

Isn't that like saying 'I recommend a Ford Kuga', but not specifying which trim level, year of manufacture, limitations and price.

[newhome]

29 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

Are you creating a false correlation between HP size and price.  There is more to a proper installation that just the maximum output.

I didn’t create anything, those were simply the quotes. I needed a UVC to replace the TS and a correctly sized ASHP. UFH is already present everywhere so surely it’s a case of installing the 2 new components and commissioning it all? These guys are supposed to be the gold standard where sizing and installations are concerned so I was quite concerned about the very different ASHP outputs I was quoted. 

[SteamyTea]

7 minutes ago, newhome said:

UFH is already present everywhere so surely it’s a case of installing the 2 new components and commissioning it all?

I think that is a dangerous assumption.

Did they know the amount of insulation under the slab?

Did they know your actual DHW needs?

Did they use local weather profiles?

Did they take into account thermal gain?

Did you see a room by room heat load model?

 

Usually (what we did) we just used the appropriate building standards for when the house was built.

Edited October 3, 2021 by SteamyTea

[ProDave]

1 hour ago, DragsterDriver said:

 

It depends for me on how in depth the design is and cost? If it’s a modest sum and a case of “I have looked at your plans and insulation, I suggest X panels, X cylinder and X heat pump” then it’s great, without getting bogged down.

If this is a new build, then you will have a SAP assessment and as long as it is done honestly and accurately you will know how much heat the whole house needs and can size the heating system.  e.e. I knew the worst case heating demand for my house was just over 2kW so I chose a 5kW ASHP and under floor heating.

[DragsterDriver]

1 hour ago, ProDave said:

If this is a new build, then you will have a SAP assessment and as long as it is done honestly and accurately you will know how much heat the whole house needs and can size the heating system.  e.e. I knew the worst case heating demand for my house was just over 2kW so I chose a 5kW ASHP and under floor heating.

any use?

[AliG]

On 03/10/2021 at 17:22, DragsterDriver said:

any use?

 

From this your water heating energy use is 2598 kWh/year. Note they assume that you also use 1720kWh to top it up with the immersion, something many people on here do not do.

 

Anyway that is 7kWh/day from the ASHP.

 

The space heating need is 4908kWh. This is likely only over around 6 months, so 27kWh a day. Peak days would probably be around twice this, so 50-60kWh a day.

 

Thus your maximum requirement from the ASHP is likely around 60-70kWh/day. A 5kWh pump could do this comfortably. Often the pump will be oversized to 8kWh to give more capacity for heating hot water and to help it run at a slightly better COP.

[DragsterDriver]

37 minutes ago, AliG said:

From this your water heating energy use is 2598 kWh/year. Note they assume that you also use 1720kWh to top it up with the immersion, something many people on here do not do.

 

Anyway that is 7kWh/day from the ASHP.

 

The space heating need is 4908kWh. This is likely only over around 6 months, so 27kWh a day. Peak days would probably be around twice this, so 50-60kWh a day.

 

Thus your maximum requirement from the ASHP is likely around 60-70kWh/day. A 5kWh pump could do this comfortably. Often the pump will be oversized to 8kWh to give more capacity for heating hot water and to help it run at a slightly better COP.

Thanks!

 

for whatever reason I find the entire solar type stuff mind boggling. 

[AliG]

Gas markets have been insane in the last two days.

 

The 240p price from Friday hit a high of over 400p today before closing at 265p when Russia said they would add to supplies.

 

 

[epsilonGreedy]

On 06/10/2021 at 21:22, AliG said:

Gas markets have been insane in the last two days.

 

The 240p price from Friday hit a high of over 400p today before closing at 265p when Russia said they would add to supplies.

 

 

 

Curiously 116 for March 22 delivery.

[Ferdinand]

On 27/09/2021 at 15:40, SteamyTea said:

You can pick your own hallucinogenic mushrooms for free. There may be some near a turbines base.

 

If you aren't buried in the bodies of the millions of birds that are killed by the turbine in the 10 minutes you are there.

[SteamyTea]

8 minutes ago, Ferdinand said:

 

If you aren't buried in the bodies of the millions of birds that are killed by the turbine in the 10 minutes you are there.

Only millions.

I was told, by an expert (well they wore ethnic clothes) that it was all birds.

And every bat that has ever existed.

[AliG]

1 hour ago, epsilonGreedy said:

Curiously 116 for March 22 delivery.

I assume that the market believes that the spat with Russia will be over eventually so gradually prices this in. The price is lower again for 23 and 24.

 

The BBC News website had a quite outrageous headline on Thursday, I have copied the link to the whole story.

 

This problem is mainly being caused by Russia and the BBC actually printed that Putin had stepped in to help with no mention anywhere that Russia had created the problem in the first place. I am appalled.

 

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58815665

 

I just made a complaint to the BBC, the article makes out Russia is helping us out when in fact they are costing millions of British consumers a fortune.

 

[AliG]

I just called Octopus now that I have my smart meter about switching to Intelligent Octopus.

 

The person I spoke to wasn't very helpful at all and said that I had to email.

 

She said they increased prices again yesterday, but she couldn't tell me what they were and they have not changed on the website. She said it was because she was working from home, not sure why that means she can't access the prices

 

I thought I would resurrect this thread with news reports about changes to the price cap scheme

 

Wholesale gas and electricity prices have gone crazy again.

 

Luckily the cap carries through most of this winter, but this will really bite next winter.

 

Here are the current gas and electricity futures.

 

If these spikes persisted the price of gas would have to almost double from the current cap to around 7.5p/kWh and the price of electricity would have to rise another 20%+ to around 26p/kWh.

 

I assume they will fall before we get to this point, but that could be wishful thinking.