Electricity price hike

[epsilonGreedy]

12 hours ago, AliG said:

In days gone by this kind of thing caused wars.

 

 

And so did mini ice ages, at least we have eliminated that risk.

[epsilonGreedy]

11.5 GW of wind power right now as this cold front stirs up the North Sea with its wind farms.

[SteamyTea]

1 hour ago, epsilonGreedy said:

 

And so did mini ice ages, at least we have eliminated that risk.

You been left on your own again, weekends are so peaceful without you.

[Lorenz]

5 hours ago, epsilonGreedy said:

 

And so did mini ice ages, at least we have eliminated that risk.

How have we eliminated the risk of a mini ice age?

 

[epsilonGreedy]

7 minutes ago, Lorenz said:

How have we eliminated the risk of a mini ice age?

 

 

99% of humans and 105% of scientists agree that the world is going to end in 3 or 12 years in a red hot fiery conflagration unless the CO2 level stops climbing, therefore I conclude an ice-age is not an immediate threat.

[SteamyTea]

3 minutes ago, epsilonGreedy said:

 

99% of humans and 105% of scientists agree that the world is going to end in 3 or 12 years in a red hot fiery conflagration unless the CO2 level stops climbing, therefore I conclude an ice-age is not an immediate threat.

I think your Mum is calling you to go outside and get some fresh air.

[Lorenz]

You not heard of the volcano erupting on La Palma, if it slips CO2 will drop in the UK and many countries bordering the Atlantic, if it blows it could cause a mini ice age. Just read some new research on Krakatoa and it says it caused a mini ice age from 1300s to the 1900s and we are just coming out of it, had some colder spots in the middle too.

 

[markc]

Just now, Lorenz said:

You not heard of the volcano erupting on La Palma, if it slips CO2 will drop in the UK and many countries bordering the Atlantic, if it blows it could cause a mini ice age. Just read some new research on Krakatoa and it says it caused a mini ice age from 1300s to the 1900s and we are just coming out of it, had some colder spots in the middle too.

 

What? Climate change could be Mother Nature! Wash your mouth out with soap boy. How dare you question “the science” of sponging money and funding

[markc]

I blame bad weather on wind turbines, I’ve noticed the turbines are never turning on nice still days so they must be causing the wind. …. Can I have some funding to study this please.

[SteamyTea]

5 minutes ago, markc said:

Can I have some funding to study this please

You can pick your own hallucinogenic mushrooms for free. There may be some near a turbines base.

[epsilonGreedy]

18 minutes ago, Lorenz said:

You not heard of the volcano erupting on La Palma, if it slips CO2 will drop in the UK and many countries bordering the Atlantic

 

 

This sounds interesting but is there typo or spell correction error in that quote? CO2 ppm is a global atmospheric measure.

 

Yes I watched a Horizon type program 20 years ago warning that if the volcano slips into the sea a tsunami will roll over the Bahamas and inundate the US east coast.

 

18 minutes ago, Lorenz said:

Just read some new research on Krakatoa and it says it caused a mini ice age from 1300s to the 1900s and we are just coming out of it, had some colder spots in the middle too.

 

 

They have a role to play but most analysis suggests volcanoes can result in a climatic wobble of a few years until the atmosphere clears out the high altitude dust.

 

Your lifestyle and probably your life is most at risk from the next Carrington Event which is overdue.

Edited September 27, 2021 by epsilonGreedy

[AliG]

China impacted by rising energy prices also

 

https://9to5mac.com/2021/09/27/apple-suppliers-halt-production/

[AliG]

This ad appeared on a web page just now. Comedy gold, how did I not know about this. Only £59 if you are interested.

 

https://getvoltex.com/article4/uk?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI9e7coeif8wIVEj3TCh0c7A6LEAEYASAAEgLM1_D_BwE

[ProDave]

^^ Snake oil.  How do they get away peddalling that nonsense?

[SteamyTea]

1 minute ago, ProDave said:

^^ Snake oil.  How do they get away peddalling that nonsense?

Not quite, there used to be a way, by using an inductor after the meter, that stopped it recording correctly.  Think it messed up the power factor correction.

Don't think it works on the newer digital meters.

 

https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/using-inductors-to-reduce-electric-bill.69264/

 

[ProDave]

3 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

Not quite, there used to be a way, by using an inductor after the meter, that stopped it recording correctly.  Think it messed up the power factor correction.

Don't think it works on the newer digital meters.

 

https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/using-inductors-to-reduce-electric-bill.69264/

 

Yes, by power factor correction you might see small reductions, but nothing like the massive drop they are claiming.

[SteamyTea]

1 minute ago, ProDave said:

Yes, by power factor correction you might see small reductions, but nothing like the massive drop they are claiming.

True, unless it has near infinite Henrys.

[dpmiller]

ye olde Magic Roundabout

[AliG]

Prices in the futures market continue to go crazy. They have been adding 5-10% a day. The trouble is that 5-10% on the current price is equivalent to 40% of the price a year ago.

 

This is a becoming a global issue. There is talk of French electricity providers having the same issue as here and as mentioned China has started to put measures n place to curb power demand.

 

Even in the US, which is energy self sufficient, the price of natural gas is now more than double the normal level.

 

The government needs to be worrying a lot more about this than the petrol "crisis" which is a media created nonsense.

 

This is the US price chart, clearly not just a UK issue.

 

I also stand by what I said earlier about the amount of speculation allowed in these markets. As energy providers have to provide electricity and gas no matter how expensive it gets, speculators can keep pushing up the price, knowing that it has to be paid (until governments step in at some point and sort it out when the price will fall back, so it is not totally risk free).

 

This story summaries the short term issue well.

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/european-gas-power-prices-jump-072506901.html

 

[Ferdinand]

On 27/09/2021 at 20:19, SteamyTea said:

True, unless it has near infinite Henrys.

 

[SteamyTea]

6 minutes ago, Ferdinand said:

Suckers

[Ferdinand]

Where do we expect this to settle, now?

 

I've now heard from Octopus. Looks like their normal tariff will be about £140 per month fixed or variable, compared to £92 fixed before Avro went bust. It seems the tariff is something called Flexible Octopus, which I cannot find the exact numbers for on the website.

 

By the look of it my current best fixed deal from a big player is around £135.

What are others seeing?

 

I will probably be thinking about sticking with a variable then fixing again when it is a decent deal - what do we think is a reasonable thresh hold to watch?

 

I expect the events to trigger it will be big electricity sources coming on stream (Triton Knoll, North Sea link) or back on stream (French link) in the UK, or being repaired (the one that burnt down).

 

(Aside: I see from Gridwatch that the North Sea Link 1.4GW Norway interconnector is now being tested, by the look of it.)

 

[recoveringbuilder]

Well that’s my fixed tariff with octopus ended, I resisted signing up for their 2 year deal as it was 24.87 per unit so they’ve moved me onto flexible octopus which is currently 18.53 per unit with 24.84 per day standing charge, I have their app on my phone so easy to check on a daily basis what they’re offering, it’s a game of poker!

[SteamyTea]

1 hour ago, Ferdinand said:

I expect the events to trigger it will be big electricity sources coming on stream (Triton Knoll, North Sea link) or back on stream (French link) in the UK, or being repaired (the one that burnt down).

Without looking at the figures, i don't think that the Dutch and French (half capacity ATM) deliver enough power to make a price difference.  They are more to do with balancing, and in the case of the French interconnect, reducing emissions.

The new generation capacity will make a difference, but not as much as the price of gas changing.

[AliG]

The price cap increases today so anyone on a flexible tariff should expect their price to increase to 21p for electricity and 4p for gas.

 

The way the system is set up it quotes as if the price on any given day is the price for 12 months so quotes based on yesterday’s price are less than people will be paying from today.

 

I was looking at the futures and trying to figure out what the wholesale prices mean for actual consumer prices. I will do a bit more on this but from what I could see the price 12 months out is similar to the current cap. The problem is that the prices over the next 6 months are way higher than the cap. As I noted before despite what you would think futures are almost as volatile as short term prices and tend to follow them up and down.

 

I cannot see any fixed prices being offered even close to the cap. 

 

I would take advantage of the cap and take a variable rate which should be fixed at the cap for the next 6 months.

 

The situation will probably have sorted itself out by then, although there is no guarantee. Russia continues to be the main problem and that could change in minutes.

 

There remains the risk that they change the cap. Any energy company not hedged is going to be losing money hand over fist in the next few months. If this happened prices could easily rise another 50% in the short term. Political expediency suggests that this is unlikely but something might have to give.