Electricity price hike

[Ferdinand]

23 minutes ago, AliG said:

The price cap increases today so anyone on a flexible tariff should expect their price to increase to 21p for electricity and 4p for gas.

 

The way the system is set up it quotes as if the price on any given day is the price for 12 months so quotes based on yesterday’s price are less than people will be paying from today.

 

I was looking at the futures and trying to figure out what the wholesale prices mean for actual consumer prices. I will do a bit more on this but from what I could see the price 12 months out is similar to the current cap. The problem is that the prices over the next 6 months are way higher than the cap. As I noted before despite what you would think futures are almost as volatile as short term prices and tend to follow them up and down.

 

I cannot see any fixed prices being offered even close to the cap. 

 

I would take advantage of the cap and take a variable rate which should be fixed at the cap for the next 6 months.

 

The situation will probably have sorted itself out by then, although there is no guarantee. Russia continues to be the main problem and that could change in minutes.

 

There remains the risk that they change the cap. Any energy company not hedged is going to be losing money hand over fist in the next few months. If this happened prices could easily rise another 50% in the short term. Political expediency suggests that this is unlikely but something might have to give.

 

 

I've been trying to check the actual unit price, however most media outlets seem dedicated to the belief that most of the public are as thick as most of their journalists, and only quote the notional total bill difference for a notional household.

 

I have no idea what my "cap" price is yet, so can't comment.

[SteamyTea]

6 minutes ago, Ferdinand said:

I've been trying to check the actual unit price, however most media outlets seem dedicated to the belief that most of the public are as thick as most of their journalists, and only quote the notional total bill difference for a notional household.

I am a frequent emailler to You and Yours (Radio 4) about this, but they take no notice.

 

Here is EDFs

https://www.edfenergy.com/sites/default/files/r505_deemed_rate_card.pdf

 

 

Others can look up there suppliers prices

[Ferdinand]

57 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

Without looking at the figures, i don't think that the Dutch and French (half capacity ATM) deliver enough power to make a price difference.  They are more to do with balancing, and in the case of the French interconnect, reducing emissions.

The new generation capacity will make a difference, but not as much as the price of gas changing.

 

Probably correct; it depends on the feedthrough to any consequent reduction in need for output from Gas Power stations.

So any reductions will likely be in lower usage of gas for electricity production, rather than reduced prices of wholesale gas.

[Ferdinand]

8 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

I am a frequent emailler to You and Yours (Radio 4) about this, but they take no notice.

 

Here is EDFs

https://www.edfenergy.com/sites/default/files/r505_deemed_rate_card.pdf

 

 

Others can look up there suppliers prices

 

Thanks for that.

 

Me: £1287, which is £107 per month, on SVP.

And still £300+ below what the bill was in 2013.

 

I wonder if more people will be thinking about pivoting from Gas to Heat Pumps?

 

 

[LSB]

Well I was on the fence re the heat pump, will definitely be going ahead.

I'm lucky in that at the beginning of Sept I fixed my electricity (no gas) price for 2 years.

I can't remember off hand what it was, but almost definitely better than what's happening at the moment.

That's with EON so probably safe, unless someone knows different.

 

[SteamyTea]

Just now, Ferdinand said:

I wonder if more people will be thinking about pivoting from Gas to Heat Pumps?

Thought crossed m mind to.

Rather than whinge and whine about it, we could be looking to see what we can do to reduce imported power to the home.

 

I was just about to buy an A2AHP, but my plumber mate is not bothering to get his F-Gas, think getting his MCS has exhausted him.

But he is looking at prices for small, inverter driven, ASHPs.  This will be a much more expensive installation as I am changing from night storage to HP, so new cylinder, radiators (fancy skirting ones), rerouting pipe work, new consumer unit etc.

May do it in two stages, fit all the plumbing and run it off a 100lt buffer heated at night, then I will have the data to choose an ASHP.

 

Am also looking at PV again, if I can fit 4 metres on modules to my roof, I should manage to get 8 modules up there.  So somewhere around 2.4 kW_p installed capacity.  Trouble is, during the spring, summer and autumn, I only use about 4 kWh/day, winter it goes up to 13 kWh/day.

[Ferdinand]

4 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

Thought crossed m mind to.

Rather than whinge and whine about it, we could be looking to see what we can do to reduce imported power to the home.

 

I was just about to buy an A2AHP, but my plumber mate is not bothering to get his F-Gas, think getting his MCS has exhausted him.

But he is looking at prices for small, inverter driven, ASHPs.  This will be a much more expensive installation as I am changing from night storage to HP, so new cylinder, radiators (fancy skirting ones), rerouting pipe work, new consumer unit etc.

May do it in two stages, fit all the plumbing and run it off a 100lt buffer heated at night, then I will have the data to choose an ASHP.

 

Am also looking at PV again, if I can fit 4 metres on modules to my roof, I should manage to get 8 modules up there.  So somewhere around 2.4 kW_p installed capacity.  Trouble is, during the spring, summer and autumn, I only use about 4 kWh/day, winter it goes up to 13 kWh/day.

 

Yes. Economics look marginal, as MCS will only give 5.5p export price per unit, unless you get onto the Tesla Battery Tariff (11/11).

[SteamyTea]

14 minutes ago, Ferdinand said:

Yes. Economics look marginal, as MCS will only give 5.5p export price per unit, unless you get onto the Tesla Battery Tariff (11/11).

I am not sure how much my mate would charge me for the MCS, he only has the RHI one, but it is a cheap conversation to add on the PV, so we shall see. 

At the moment I am thinking just self install.

[dpmiller]

You don't need F-gas for a precharged A2A tho do you?

[SteamyTea]

1 hour ago, AliG said:

If this happened prices could easily rise another 50% in the short term. Political expediency suggests that this is unlikely but something might have to give.

When I was studying all this a decade ago, I found the DECC reports pretty good.

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/energy-and-emissions-projections

[AliG]

A year ago the price of my electricity was 7x the price of my gas. Thus an ASHP did not make sense.

 

This was a particularly good deal though the normal ratio is probably closer to 5x at which point I still would think mains gas is a better option but less clear.

 

The cap currently has electricity over 5x the price of gas. Gas, however, is more volatile than electricity (the commodity is a larger percentage of the end price I think) and it is gas prices that are rising more at the moment.

 

Still it is best not to make long term decisions like gas vs ASHP based on short term fluctuations.  At the moment mains gas still seems cheaper.

 

I don’t see this happening in the next few years but longer term I would expect a carbon tax on gas as more electricity is produced renewably to push people towards ASHPs.

[MJNewton]

1 hour ago, Ferdinand said:

I've been trying to check the actual unit price, however most media outlets seem dedicated to the belief that most of the public are as thick as most of their journalists, and only quote the notional total bill difference for a notional household.

 

Do bear in mind, and I think I am right in saying this, that the Ofgem price cap is as you say the notional total for a notional household, however it is made up of two parts - a per-unit consumption charge and per-day standing charge and suppliers are free to play around with each as long as the combined total for a notional household's bill doesn't exceed the cap. You do therefore need to get *your* suppliers figures to see how the Ofgem cap change impacts 1) your suppliers implementation of the cap and 2) your offset from the notional household consumption.

[SteamyTea]

11 minutes ago, Ferdinand said:

ST did so, and the calcs are above.

Who you with?

 

E.ON prices seem to be here.

https://www.eonenergy.com/gas-and-electricity/our-product-prices.html

Out having a coffee, so paying about £300/kWh atm.

Edited October 1, 2021 by SteamyTea

[Ferdinand]

8 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

Who you with?

 

E.ON prices seem to be here.

https://www.eonenergy.com/gas-and-electricity/our-product-prices.html

Out having a coffee, so paying about £300/kWh atm.

 

Octopus.

[SteamyTea]

20 minutes ago, Ferdinand said:

Octopus

Any help.

https://www.octopusreferral.link/octopus-energy-tariffs/

 

One simple thing parliament could do is force all the energy companies to publish the meter rental charge and the kWh rates. I know that it may be a long list for some as they have multiple tariffs,  but that is there lookout for creating stupid schemes.

[RandAbuild]

5 hours ago, Ferdinand said:

Where do we expect this to settle, now?

 

I've now heard from Octopus. Looks like their normal tariff will be about £140 per month fixed or variable, compared to £92 fixed before Avro went bust. It seems the tariff is something called Flexible Octopus, which I cannot find the exact numbers for on the website.

 

By the look of it my current best fixed deal from a big player is around £135.

What are others seeing?

 

I will probably be thinking about sticking with a variable then fixing again when it is a decent deal - what do we think is a reasonable thresh hold to watch?

 

I expect the events to trigger it will be big electricity sources coming on stream (Triton Knoll, North Sea link) or back on stream (French link) in the UK, or being repaired (the one that burnt down).

 

(Aside: I see from Gridwatch that the North Sea Link 1.4GW Norway interconnector is now being tested, by the look of it.)

 

 

We're in exactly the same place as you.  We were on AVRO's Simple & Super12M fixed price deal until April 2022. Electricity 14.99p kWh and Gas 2.546p. Seems unreal rates now and I was sure they couldn't make it viable.

 

We were paying £95 a month for G&E, now likely to go up to £140/month.

 

As far as Octopus's tarrifs are concerned, this is what I've discovered:

 

Occupier Flexible Octopus September 2021 v1   
Eco 7 Electricity    
Day unit rate: 20.39 p/kWh    
Night unit rate: 12.67 p/kWh    
Standing charge: 23.85 p/day    
    
Electricity    
Unit rate: 18.48 p/kWh    
Standing charge: 23.76 p/day    
    
Gas    
Unit rate: 3.24 p/kWh    
Standing charge: 23.85 p/day    
    

Occupier Flexible Octopus October 2021 v2   
Eco 7 Electricity    
Day unit rate: 21.76 p/kWh    
Night unit rate: 15.02 p/kWh    
Standing charge: 23.85 p/day    
    
Electricity    
Unit rate: 20.12 p/kWh    
Standing charge: 23.76 p/day    
    
Gas    
Unit rate: 3.94 p/kWh    
Standing charge: 26.11 p/day   

[Stones]

I see the government is proposing shifting green levies onto gas:

 

https://www.ft.com/content/54b437ad-4683-434e-89aa-e26772092b31

[LSB]

Looking at some of the EON prices, can someone explain why the costs differ depending on where you live.

[SteamyTea]

7 minutes ago, LSB said:

Looking at some of the EON prices, can someone explain why the costs differ depending on where you live.

Distribution prices.

These variable prices, like some green taxes, did not apply to small operators.

[billt]

2 hours ago, LSB said:

Looking at some of the EON prices, can someone explain why the costs differ depending on where you live.

I suspect that it's largely historical. The regions are exactly the same as the old electricity board regions before the insanity of privitisation. They all had different rates; I doubt that there is any justification for different regional rates these days, but it probably won't change.

[billt]

7 hours ago, Ferdinand said:

I wonder if more people will be thinking about pivoting from Gas to Heat Pumps?

 

Always thinking about it, but electricity is still 5x the price of gas. Where's the heat pump with a seasonal COP of more than 4 for a non passivhaus?

[newhome]

8 hours ago, AliG said:

The price cap increases today so anyone on a flexible tariff should expect their price to increase to 21p

 
I’m on a semi flexible tariff that changes twice a year. It guarantees to be at least 2.5% under the price cap. Mine changed today to 14.1p from 12p which at the time I wasn’t that happy about but on reflection it doesn’t seem that bad. It will stay at that rate until April. I have a second meter at a lower rate but can see that going up when the fix it is on ends in November. It’s a much smaller proportion of my usage however. 
 

I built up a credit balance to cover my higher usage in winter and I can see that they’ve just refunded it back to my bank. So now I start winter in debt ?‍♀️  Go figure! 
 

[Ferdinand]

Energy News.

 

North Sea link interconnector is now operational, which is 700 MW of power now, rising to 1.4 GW of hydro electricity from Norway by next March.

 

Will have some impact, but not enough significantly to reduce use of gas in power stations on its own, I think. Water-based elec storage for the national grid by keeping Norway's lakes fuller. ?

 

https://www.euronews.com/2021/10/01/north-sea-link-world-s-longest-undersea-power-cable-linking-norway-and-uk-is-now-operation

 

When wind generation in the UK will be high but energy demand low, extra renewable power will be exported from the UK to Norway and conserve water in Norway's reservoirs, according to the statement. However, when demand is high in the UK but wind generation is low, hydropower from Norway will be imported.

 

Cordi O'Hara, President of National Grid Ventures, said that it is "an exciting day for National Grid and an important step as we look to diversify and decarbonise the UK's electricity supply".

 

"North Sea Link is a truly remarkable feat of engineering. We had to go through mountains, fjords and across the North Sea to make this happen. But as we look forward to COP26, Noth Sea Link is also a great example of two countries working together to maximise renewable energy resources for mutual benefit," he added.
 

[SteamyTea]

4 hours ago, billt said:

Always thinking about it, but electricity is still 5x the price of gas. Where's the heat pump with a seasonal COP of more than 4 for a non passivhaus?

It is also to do with emissions, not just price.

4 hours ago, billt said:

suspect that it's largely historical. The regions are exactly the same as the old electricity board regions before the insanity of privitisation

National Grid sets the price for bulk transport, and a lot of the larger, local infrastructure. So rural areas, or places like Cornwall have higher costs.

[billt]

12 hours ago, SteamyTea said:

It is also to do with emissions, not just price.

 

Well, if the grid was supplied by zero carbon energy you might have a point, but as most of it comes from pollution emitting sources, that's not a good argument.