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Octopus Agile (Time of Use) tariff


TerryE

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27 minutes ago, ProDave said:

And how do they check you actually have an "electric car"?  Will a Hybrid count?

 
It has to be a plug in hybrid I think. They take the car registration number when you apply but I’m not sure if they actually check the car. I would assume that they do. Mine is a PHEV so qualified even though I barely use the car these days as I work from hold full time at present. 

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@DamonHD, Thanks for the link; the site needs a proper review.

 

IMO some form of demand-side adaptive use is a good tool to help get us towards a zero carbon goal, and ToU pricing is one good mechanism to implement this.  AFAIK, the Octopus Agile tariff is the first such UK offering available to consumers.  I also believe that members of this site -- those with the drive to self-build -- will tend to be early adopters of ToU services. 

 

This particular thread is branching into various facets, because of the various usecases that might apply here, and the sweet spot is going to be different depending on individual circumstances and abilities.  For example in my case, my annual energy bill is about half of my annual council tax bill and my current energy solution doesn't need third party maintenance or material related consumables , so another 30% savings, say, would be a very small change to our overall outgoings.  So to the usecases:

  • Many here will have PV and some Tesla PowerWall-style storage.  Maybe more so in the future the "powerwall" will be a flatpack with a wheel at each corner and only plugged in when not taking the occupants out and around ?  These are capital intensive and complex systems, and merit a separate thread / discussion, I think.
  • At the other extreme, many will find the challenges of adaptive demand to match ToU in the "just too hard" category.  Many will be comfortable with adopting essentially static time-of-day strategies that can be implemented with simple timers etc.  That's what we do to make best use of our current E7 tariff:  Most of CH, all of our DHW, our washing machine and dishwasher use E7 cheap rate electricity, and this drops our energy bill by ~30% compared to an equivalent single rate tariff.
  • Where things start to get really complicated is when you wish to adapt your household demand truly dynamically to daily ToU pricing, and one option here seems to be the way OVO is going and to use a third-party (e.g. energy provider) AI-based service and allow it to schedule your devices and internal services through technologies such as Alexa.  This will be the simplest option for many consumers but this one gives me the willies, personally, because of the security, privacy and 3rd-party continuity risks.
  • Another alternative is to have a largely independent system within the household the executes control locally and only depends on open (therefore easily replaceable) and usually free external services, but with all of the smarts running on a computer within the household.  I am also IT literate and a strong programmer, so this is the option that I am most comfortable with, and one that I wish to promote and to support /help any other members that are thinking of  going this route, but again perhaps the details merit a separate thread / discussion.  What I will say here is that there is now a bunch of cheap and incredibly powerful options (e.g. RPi, Home Assistant, ZigBee / ZWave and loads of devices that employ these, REST-base webservces) that make this very feasibly for anyone with some IT literacy and very basic programming skills to go this route.

Perhaps others can expand on cases that I have missed.

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Dan F said:

For us (without a electic car) this tarrif would mean a payment of approx £600 a year.  With the agile tarriff, I'm not even sure how I'd start to calculate what the annual cost would be, because it all depends on dynamic pricing, ability to schedule usage/charging as well as the maximum charge/discharge rate of battery.   Have you managed to estimate costs of agile tariff in any way?

 

Agree 11p/kWh charging is expensive. But, if you export more than you import over the year, then the other way to think about it is simply that your summer excess is covering your winter usage?

I've done a crude spreadsheet-based model which sort-of simulates this: it uses data downloaded from PV Live to work out what my own theoretical generation would be over the past few years, and combines this with historical degree-days to get a rough estimate for solar gain, heat demand and COP. Assuming no electric car and that the average daily price profile applies every day (not particularly accurate, but I haven't figured out anything better yet). Assuming demand of about 4 MWh per year and total generation of about 10 MWh (probably a bit high, but I haven't re-run the model recently) it ends up with a net payment to me of about £250 per year. In practice it would be a bit lower since more heating would be in winter when prices are higher than average, but it's probably reasonably close.

Assuming those numbers are correct, that's about 4p/kWh for net exports of ~6000 kWh. So the Tesla tariff would get me £420 extra per year - nice, but would take a long time to pay off and as soon as an electric car comes into the picture the financial return drops fast. My view is that that money is better spent on more PV or a higher COP heat pump (e.g. GSHP rather than ASHP), but that's very much what suits me rather than a hard and fast set of requirements.

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1 hour ago, pdf27 said:

I've done a crude spreadsheet-based model which sort-of simulates this: it uses data downloaded from PV Live to work out what my own theoretical generation would be over the past few years, and combines this with historical degree-days to get a rough estimate for solar gain, heat demand and COP. Assuming no electric car and that the average daily price profile applies every day (not particularly accurate, but I haven't figured out anything better yet). Assuming demand of about 4 MWh per year and total generation of about 10 MWh (probably a bit high, but I haven't re-run the model recently) it ends up with a net payment to me of about £250 per year. In practice it would be a bit lower since more heating would be in winter when prices are higher than average, but it's probably reasonably close.

Assuming those numbers are correct, that's about 4p/kWh for net exports of ~6000 kWh. So the Tesla tariff would get me £420 extra per year - nice, but would take a long time to pay off and as soon as an electric car comes into the picture the financial return drops fast. My view is that that money is better spent on more PV or a higher COP heat pump (e.g. GSHP rather than ASHP), but that's very much what suits me rather than a hard and fast set of requirements.

 

Does this assume battery or no battery?   I assume the "long time to pay off" means your numbrs are without battery and just shifting usage as much as possible?

 

 

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15 minutes ago, Dan F said:

Does this assume battery or no battery?   I assume the "long time to pay off" means your numbrs are without battery and just shifting usage as much as possible?

Yep, no battery. Basically it makes a prediction for how much heat and hot water is needed in a given day and from that the number of 30 minute slots that a 3kW heat pump would need to run for to fulfil that. They're then allocated to the cheapest n slots per day. No attempt to time-shift anything else apart from using a hot-fill dishwasher.

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  • 3 months later...

Beginning to regret switching to Agile as average daily rates have risen rapidly over the last couple of months. For example, today's (Monday) is circa 23 pence per unit and the lowest the nighttime rate drops to is only 17p.

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  • 1 month later...

Octopus Agile prices are going off the scale, yesterday it was at its capped limit of 35p/unit for most of the day. 
 

Agile outgoing rates were equally wild, at one point reaching over 60p/unit for export - all be it for a brief period, I’m pleased to say it was a brief period that the sun still shone on my panels. 
 

Equally nuts today.

 

What’s causing this? Light winds and not enough sun?

 

 

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6 hours ago, Russdl said:

Octopus Agile prices are going off the scale, yesterday it was at its capped limit of 35p/unit for most of the day. 

 

Ouch!

I have to say I've been increasingly underwhelmed by Agile, and think I might be better with a fixed rather than dynamic tariff like Go or one of their E7 offerings.  Not obvious how I switch though? So I might just jump supplier as that's more obvious!

 

Also, digging through the bills I've now just noticed I've not received any SEG Export payments since May. Looks like my smart meter has stopped sending them readings (yet, conveniently, they still seem to be getting the Import readings just fine).  Anyone else on the export tariff seen this??

 

 

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Just had a look at the last ten years worth of electrical generation data.

I picked Mondays during weeks 35,36 and 37 as these will always take in the Bank Holiday and the main start of school.

I suspect you will be getting cheaper power next week.

I can't be bothered to look up when school started each year, but others can.

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Edited by SteamyTea
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@SteamyTea interesting stats but why does the first day back at school cause such a spike?

 

@joth Agile has been very hit and miss for us, they seem to have plenty of problems but so far, with time, they’ve fixed our import/export issues. It took months and it’s all going Pete Tong again now but I trust them to sort it...

 

eventually.

 

@pdf27 so why the high spot gas prices? Is that all connected to the kids going back to school? I don’t get the connection at all. I guess I’m just slow!

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Russdl said:

 

@pdf27 so why the high spot gas prices? Is that all connected to the kids going back to school? I don’t get the connection at all. I guess I’m just slow!

It isn't just us, the whole of Europe has the same issue. Seems to simply be a matter of supply and demand, so expect very high gas prices this winter.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-06/europe-faces-energy-price-shock-with-gas-and-power-at-records

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32 minutes ago, Russdl said:

interesting stats but why does the first day back at school cause such a spike

Mondays are generally a high demand day as people return to work and industry ramps up after the weekend.

This year has probably been more pronounced as many people who have not been working because of holidays (last week was very good weather) and the drawing to an end of Furlough.

 

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On 07/09/2021 at 15:09, SteamyTea said:

I suspect you will be getting cheaper power next week.


As it happens, we’re not. The Agile import rate is hitting its capped price of 35p/unit early in the morning, 07:30 today, and staying there til late at night, 23:30 today. It’s a similar story most days. 
 

The export rate exceeds the import rate at 16:30 today (49.49p a unit) and stays way above the import rate til 21:00.

 

It peaks at 235.93p/unit at 19:30 - over 6 times the import price!
 

It was way above 200p/unit yesterday evening as well. 

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1 hour ago, Russdl said:


As it happens, we’re not. The Agile import rate is hitting its capped price of 35p/unit early in the morning, 07:30 today, and staying there til late at night, 23:30 today. It’s a similar story most days. 
 

The export rate exceeds the import rate at 16:30 today (49.49p a unit) and stays way above the import rate til 21:00.

 

It peaks at 235.93p/unit at 19:30 - over 6 times the import price!
 

It was way above 200p/unit yesterday evening as well. 

Those numbers seem insane.

Is there anything on the ELEXON portal to show this as a general trend, or has Octopus over promised and under bought.

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