J1mbo Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 On 27/08/2020 at 08:56, JamesP said: Fitting PV from a financial point of view would probably take at least 10 - 15 years to recoup the original outlay without any FIT. It's amazing how much things have changed in six months! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LA3222 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 (edited) On 27/08/2020 at 10:00, LA3222 said: How can you know that? You are making some very broad brush assumptions to arrive at such a conclusion. Do you know what will happen to energy prices over that 15yr period as that will have a material impact on the repayment timeline? Or do you assume today's prices will apply in 15yrs time? Do you know how much they will generate or is this an assumption again? Do you know how much they will use out of what is generated? I'm not having a go at you, I'm taking aim at how this is not a binary decision. It is too complex to just divide the cost by the assumed energy produced and then compare that to todays energy prices to arrive at the answer. My own view is that the climate is going tits up, energy prices will most certainly rise - we are already scraping the barrel for being able to produce enough of it, power plants are getting older, new ones will cost a load of cash which will no doubt get passed on to the consumer. If the summer temperatures get more extreme will air con in the home become the norm for this country like others overseas? If so, the PV will pay the bill for that use. There are lots of tangential arguments as to why PV is worth doing but they tend to get overlooked/dominated by the financial argument. Yes its a high outlay, but if you're in the house for the long haul then at some point it will be worth that initial bank balance hit. @J1mboPretty sure that is the drum I keep banging. The naysayers on here for PV always seem to shy away from the unknown variable which is energy prices. As we can see, they can be wild and like most things, they will continue an inevitable march upwards whilst never returning to previous levels. The question I ponder now is do I buy all my panels and leave them on a pallet against the risk of everyone going PV mad and prices shooting up? Thoughts anyone? Edited February 8, 2022 by LA3222 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J1mbo Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 The return based on the new cap of 28p is ~12% including system depreciation based on quotes I'm seeing. The question is how long those rates will last. I'm leaning towards getting a system at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LA3222 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 30 minutes ago, J1mbo said: The return based on the new cap of 28p is ~12% including system depreciation based on quotes I'm seeing. The question is how long those rates will last. I'm leaning towards getting a system at this point. 30p will be here before long 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperJohnG Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 2 hours ago, LA3222 said: The question I ponder now is do I buy all my panels and leave them on a pallet against the risk of everyone going PV mad and prices shooting up? So you didn't buy at the point of doing the roof? Just fitted the trays? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnMo Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 Can't see prices going up much, just availablity being an issue. Once they're bought, move on to the next thing don't look back. Procrastination will leave you at the end of the line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteamyTea Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 41 minutes ago, JohnMo said: Procrastination will leave you at the end of the line Penzance is end of the Great Western Line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnMo Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 (edited) Exactly, you don't want to be there when you live in Scotland. Edited February 8, 2022 by JohnMo Missed word Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marvin Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 3 hours ago, LA3222 said: Do you know what will happen to energy prices over that 15yr period as that will have a material impact on the repayment timeline? Or do you assume today's prices will apply in 15yrs time? looking at retail prices since 2010 the price of electricity has risen by 28% https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1005772/Electricity_since_1920.xls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteamyTea Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Marvin said: looking at retail prices since 2010 the price of electricity has risen by 28% does that take into account we use less, and meter rental? Adding 15p a day to rental is quite steep, £55, on £110.year-1, no need for it to change at all. Edited February 8, 2022 by SteamyTea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marvin Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 1 minute ago, SteamyTea said: does that take into account we use less, and meter rental? Adding 15p a day to rental is quite steep, £55, on £110.year-1, no need for it to change at all. Don't know you have to read the 100 pages of info... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteamyTea Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Marvin said: Don't know you have to read the 100 pages of info... Off you go then, see you when you have done. I think there is something on there about share of bills. Just reading a book about Oil, by Vaclac Smil. Interesting how governments have raised more money on oil company taxation than oil companies have made profits. Edited February 8, 2022 by SteamyTea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marvin Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 Since 2017 the table 2.2.2 shows that the average house bill: Table 2.2.2 Average annual domestic standard electricity bills in cash based on consumption of 3,600kWh/year Figures in cash terms These bills are calculated assuming an annual consumption of 3,600 kWh. Figures are inclusive of VAT. Direct debit: England & Wales (pounds) 2017 577 2018 629 2019 683 2020 690 2021 748 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J1mbo Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Marvin said: looking at retail prices since 2010 the price of electricity has risen by 28% https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1005772/Electricity_since_1920.xls from personal experience. 2019 - 12p 2020 - 15p 2021 - 21p (cap) 2022 - 28p as of April on cap and possibly another double digit percentage rise in September. very obviously, this is not a 28% rise. Edited February 8, 2022 by J1mbo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pocster Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 Pv and battery 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marvin Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, pocster said: Pv and battery I am waiting for batteries to improve before going there .... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J1mbo Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 Because of the very limited feed In rates, the batteries are really an essential component. But with 12%+ return (at 28p) systems with batteries are pretty attractive imo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marvin Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 29 minutes ago, J1mbo said: Because of the very limited feed In rates, the batteries are really an essential component. But with 12%+ return (at 28p) systems with batteries are pretty attractive imo Hi @J1mbo I have not given this enough research, perhaps you could expand a little about what you have in mind and the benefit arrived form it? Or even point me to the information? Only since being on build hub have I realised and now implemented so many great energy saving (yes, with installation costs) systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LA3222 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 3 hours ago, SuperJohnG said: So you didn't buy at the point of doing the roof? Just fitted the trays? Yep, just fitted the trays and then covered over with some osb which is pretty battered now! Only 8 panels on the side roof of the house, could they put more on due to the complicated nature of my roof. The rest (about 16 panels) will go on the garage when built. I'm concerned about PV price rises so may buy and store because the garage is a long way off yet - bit of a conundrum as it commits cash that I could do with elsewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LA3222 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 3 hours ago, JohnMo said: Can't see prices going up much, just availablity being an issue. Once they're bought, move on to the next thing don't look back. Procrastination will leave you at the end of the line Supply and demand will.almost certainly lead to price rises if everyone gets in a flap about energy costs and start buying. I'm in a bind as cash poor and lots to do - spanking a few k on pv that will just sit on a pallet for a year or so is something I could do without. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J1mbo Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 Nothing flash @Marvin. Just a PV system say 6kWp with maybe 8kWh of battery storage. The main issue as we all know is that we buy from the grid at (soon to be) 28p, but sell it back at 5p or so. So maximising the solar used is key to getting best return on it. The other problem is that PV generates most when basically we tend to not need it. In the day the systems can charge batteries and heat water, then you cook your dinner and run the dishwasher for free later. And since those appliances all use electricity in bursts, the batteries smooth it out to use as much PV as possible. Had a few quotes with similar metrics. £10-13k cost and £1200-1600 pa grid saving. Assuming system life actually is 25 years and 28p persists (both key assumptions obviously) then it’s providing 12% on a straight line depreciation basis. Ok so panel output will decline a bit, but energy will probably increase by more, but there’s lots of uncertainty so I’m just looking at in in a simplistic way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LA3222 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 1 hour ago, pocster said: Pv and battery Absolutely. I have bought a monitoring system to see what I use and where, it has sensors on 18 of my outputs - the major ones. I'm burning through roughly 34kWh a day at the minute. A big chunk of our use is the ASHP and then cooking followed by washer/dryer. If I can dump all that onto PV during the day and charge a battery for nighttime use it should bring us right down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LA3222 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 1 minute ago, J1mbo said: Nothing flash @Marvin. Just a PV system say 6kWp with maybe 8kWh of battery storage. The main issue as we all know is that we buy from the grid at (soon to be) 28p, but sell it back at 5p or so. So maximising the solar used is key to getting best return on it. The other problem is that PV generates most when basically we tend to not need it. In the day the systems can charge batteries and heat water, then you cook your dinner and run the dishwasher for free later. And since those appliances all use electricity in bursts, the batteries smooth it out to use as much PV as possible. Had a few quotes with similar metrics. £10-13k cost and £1200-1600 pa grid saving. Assuming system life actually is 25 years and 28p persists (both key assumptions obviously) then it’s providing 12% on a straight line depreciation basis. Ok so panel output will decline a bit, but energy will probably increase by more, but there’s lots of uncertainty so I’m just looking at in in a simplistic way. This is broadly where my mind set is at. The only thing I would.add is that most appliances have timers now so I'm thinking that if we stagger them to come on during the day and work that around the ASHP for heating/dhw we will hopefully consume most daytime generation and nighttime is covered by batteries. Think I will end up with around 7.5kW spread across three phases. Need to look into batteries as I originally parked that idea as a future problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marvin Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, J1mbo said: Nothing flash @Marvin. Just a PV system say 6kWp with maybe 8kWh of battery storage We have all south roof with 5.12kWp We already heat water and use machines during day, we also charge car. I was suggesting more off grid rather than storing a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorfun Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 9 minutes ago, J1mbo said: Had a few quotes with similar metrics. £10-13k cost is that including a battery or just PV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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