Oil Prices nearly 30% Down

[Ferdinand]

The news is reporting that oil prices have slumped again overnight.

 

May be an incoming well priced top up opportunity for people with oil fired heating.

 

Use your skill and judgement to decide whether this is the bottom ? .

 

Ferdinand

 

[daiking]

Buildhubbers think we’ll be dead before the summer so probably no point in buying too much.

[Oz07]

Wonder if we will see at the pumps. Is there a website which tracks barrel price to average UK pump price? Dearest I can remember it is around 1.50 at pump and I bet a barrel was 80+ quid then? Sitting around 30 now

[daiking]

4 hours ago, Oz07 said:

Wonder if we will see at the pumps. Is there a website which tracks barrel price to average UK pump price? Dearest I can remember it is around 1.50 at pump and I bet a barrel was 80+ quid then? Sitting around 30 now

 

Filled up for 118.7p (dirty diesel) this weekend which I thought was pretty cheap anyway. Realistically, even if this price stuck for a bit, there's probably only another 3-4p in the price you pay to fall after all the tax and overheads.

Edited March 9, 2020 by daiking

[Ferdinand]

I guess that if the duty is increased slightly, there may be the leeway to absorb it by the oil companies.

[Bitpipe]

Reading that it's down to a spat between Russia and the Saudis (Opec +) over an agreement to keep the price up through limiting production. Russia reneged so Saudi's punishing them by making the price plummet, which always hurts Russia more.

 

Good opportunity for the Govt to sneak in their fuel duty increase though. As our at pump price is dominated by tax & duty, movement of the underlying crude price does not make a huge difference.

[MikeSharp01]

1 hour ago, daiking said:

Filled up for 123.7p*

Asda / Morrisions on A2 about 118p/l Diesel at the moment.

[BotusBuild]

 

2 hours ago, Oz07 said:

Is there a website which tracks barrel price to average UK pump price?

Not exactly what you may be after, but

https://www.rac.co.uk/drive/advice/fuel-watch/

or go here and enter your postcode

https://www.allstarcard.co.uk/tools/uk-fuel-prices/

(You don't need one of their cards)

[ProDave]

Heating oil price on a firm downward slope https://www.boilerjuice.com/heating-oil-prices/

[daiking]

2 hours ago, MikeSharp01 said:

Asda / Morrisions on A2 about 118p/l Diesel at the moment.

 

lol, I got that very wrong. I thought I paid 118.7p/l on Saturday for diesel and I did.

 

But when I double checked a receipt it said 123.7p/l so changed my post. Just found the correct receipt from Saturday and realised the more expensive receipt was from 27/12/19.

 

So there's a 5p/l fall since Xmas already - although the warm winter must be helping plus a global economic slowdown even before you know what came along.

[Jeremy Harris]

I just read an apt description of fuel prices at the pumps, and the reason they always seem to go up within hours of the oil price increasing, but take weeks to go down.  It's because the pump price contains hydrogen, so being lighter than air it floats up, but needs to be physically hauled down . . .

[Temp]

Some oil company shares are down 50%. One is paying a 25% dividend already declared!

 

[Ferdinand]

I'll be hoarding a full tank of fuel ... expecting a tax jump on Wednesday. With the oil price falling, and the Govt needing money, and wanting a shift to lower carbon I cannot see him leaving it alone. 

 

Personally I would put at least 4p or 5p on it - £2-2.5bn a year in cash terms. Govt revenue from fuel duty is down from £47bn to £28bn since 2000 in cash terms it seems.

 

I think he may also reduce the subsidy for red diesel quite significantly, or signal it for the future.

 

Hmm. Cheapest locally is £1.18. Nearest Motorway Service £1.52. 

Edited March 10, 2020 by Ferdinand

[Oz07]

5 hours ago, Temp said:

Some oil company shares are down 50%. One is paying a 25% dividend already declared!

 

Tried to buy tullow multiple times yesterday. Couldn't do it live system too busy

[Temp]

I had similar problem. They are up 9% last I looked today. Bad news is everything else still trashed. Been a very expensive week.

[bassanclan]

I think we are seeing a little bit of profiteering from heating oil companies at this time.

 

I had a price of 34.41ppl on 9th March when brent crude was around $35 a barrel. Brent has fallen below $30 a barrel but the price now is 39.7ppl.

 

I suppose this is because there's more demand for heating oil with everyone staying at home self isolating

[ProDave]

Looks like it has bottomed out for now? https://www.boilerjuice.com/heating-oil-prices/

[Jeremy Harris]

I think the oil price drop has been caused by the games that Saudi Arabia have been playing.  They increased exports, which caused the price to crash, as part of a price war they are having with Russia.

[bassanclan]

I finally decided to take the plunge and top up at 24.6ppl for kerosene heating oil.

 

Now that the panic buying is over the price has really plunged the past two days and as crude continues to fall.

 

Hopefully I will have space in the tank for another 500l if crude drops to $15 a barrel

[SteamyTea]

56 minutes ago, bassanclan said:

Hopefully I will have space in the tank for another 500l if crude drops to $15 a barrel

Once it is below $22/barrel it is just a battle between Saudi Arabia and Russia.

One problem on the horizon is refining capacity.  That could be hit due to staff being ill.  And a lot of refining is done in India.

[ProDave]

2 hours ago, bassanclan said:

I finally decided to take the plunge and top up at 24.6ppl for kerosene heating oil.

 

 

You did well to get it that cheap.  Boiler Juice says only down to 39p https://www.boilerjuice.com/heating-oil-prices/

[Russell griffiths]

So how does this influence anybody’s thoughts on me putting my oil boiler in 

still haven’t added up the costs compared to an ASHP 

if we think oil prices are always rising there will surely be times when it crashes so a good time to top up that tank. 

[ProDave]

8 minutes ago, Russell griffiths said:

So how does this influence anybody’s thoughts on me putting my oil boiler in 

still haven’t added up the costs compared to an ASHP 

if we think oil prices are always rising there will surely be times when it crashes so a good time to top up that tank. 

Design the house with low temperature heating, e.g UFH, and a large DHW tank e.g 300L with a heat pump input coil.  Then fit the oil boiler.  If oil goes through the roof in years to come, swap it out for an ASHP.

[bassanclan]

Oil boilers are pretty expensive compared to gas boilers and the storage tank takes up a decent amount of space. It's something I would avoid at the design stage if at all possible unless you have an existing building fabric you have to work with e.g listed etc

[Russell griffiths]

1 hour ago, bassanclan said:

Oil boilers are pretty expensive compared to gas boilers and the storage tank takes up a decent amount of space. It's something I would avoid at the design stage if at all possible unless you have an existing building fabric you have to work with e.g listed etc

The thing is, I have a 3 year old boiler that has only done a years work when we knocked the old place down, space is not an issue 

i thought I would have an ASHP from the start but this boiler is sitting on a pallet staring at me.