Roger440

The message is, if you are going to do practical work you are a failure. It was when i was at school in the 80's, and its much worse now once Blair got the whole "you must have a degree" bandwagon rolling. The single best thing i ever did was ignore everyone and get a proper apprenticship. Sadly, even now, if you are just coming out of school, where are those proper apprenticeships that give a good engineering grounding. I dont know of any outside the MOD. Just watered down training schemes to get you earning money for the employer double quick. Usually focused on a very narrow range of tasks. Which of course increases the chances of staying tied to the employer. Even if this mindset changed tommorow, it will be 10 years plus before we see the benefit. The message today still is, if you go into a trade, you have failed. And the industry training schemes seem to focus on those that have failed acedemically. Thats why we are where we are, and why the fabled 1.4 million heatpumps wont happen.

I never disagreed. I think the problem is you dont read what i wrote, but what you think i wrote.

Again, you have taken what i said out of contect. Im not arguing we shouldnt install heat pumps because the grid cant keep up. Did i? My position is simple. 1.4 million installs wont happen. You made a statement that it will expand to meet demand, as though this were an inevitable outcome. I think there is significant chance the grid output wont match demand, primarily because the country is run by morons. I believe that enough to have bought a gen set. The two positions are in no way related. I repeat, again, i have no vested interest. I sell car parts. Please stop replying as though i do.

Cant do multiquote so: So you know how hard it is to get a good builders or electrician the?. Because standard are so high there too! Not going to argue the point. You are just wrong. You say you can distinguish between the good and bad trades. Please do put us in the picture how you do that. I think theres a fair few on this forum, never mind the public at large who would love to hear about it? Im not sure why you think im involved in any way or pretecting myself? I dont do plumbing, or heating or anything else on houses. What i do have though, is a lot of expreince to working on relatively complex stuff for retail customers. So when i see some of your ideas, my natural instinct is to think about the consequences. Because the consequencers are what your workforce need to factor is. And do. The bit you are really not getting, is that your "cheap" boiler competative installations put significant risks on to the installer. Where is the motvation for the installer to take on these low cost high risk jobs? Throught this thread, you have not answered this. And unless you do, you wont have your manpower to do the 1.4 million installs. As i said, i dont believe you grasp this element.

You reckon? I dont. We are now into predicting the future, but i think the chances of electricity keeping up with demand are slim. But what do i know. But ive got a nice diesel gen set for when it happens.

You are talking about products. Im talking about services done by people. Im not arguing for a closed shop. Where did i say i was? I was just pointing out that the idea that competetion will drive up standard is nonsense. Opening up to anyone to "have a go" (yes OK, thats not quite what you proposed, but you get the point?) simply wont drive up standards. No one good will be able to make money because they will be competing with the chancers, so will likely exit the business to do something else. There are so many services where this applies all around you, i wonder which world you live in? Im also not proposing a solution to do 1.4 million heatpumps a year. Because i already know its impossible. Primarily for one reason above all the others you mention, lack of man power. For some reason, you choose no to to see all the problems, especially when you have an actual heating system installer posting here, who, interestingly, said exactly what i did. You need to keep call backs to as close to zero as possible. Both I and SimonD have expained the issues here. I think the problem is you have zero experience at the pointy end of practical work for retail customers. And, i suspect little small business management. Im willing to bet good money that your 1,4 million installs wont happen. They only circumstances it could will be utterly shite installations that dont actually work installed by people with no clue. Because they are cheap and available.

This is fundamentally untrue. More competition nearly always drives standard DOWN. Becuase corners need to be cut to be competitive.

Id say your biggest challenge there is breaking the MCS stranglehold. There will be significant push back id predict. Its a gravy train and those on it will do everything to keep it going.

I think you entirely missed my point It wasnt about the design. It was about, effectively owning any problems with the existing system. Bit like when i ran the workshop. Had a 944 in. Oil change, set of pads etc. When he picked it up, the clock was no longer working. (they are notorius for that btw). Well that was our fault, no amount of reasoning would change that. Never came back. Doubtless bad mouthed us to anyone that would listen. The same will happen here. The customer has a problem, which in reality is unrelated to the work. However, heating now broken. Especially if short of money, the installer will get the blame, and be exptected to put it right, or be "outed" on social media. Thats just how it goes. Fitting a "full" system gives you complete control of the end result, and allows you to stand behind it 100%. Anything else is a massive grey area. All im doing is to say, look at it from the installers view point as well, even for the moment putting the profit element to one side. Just comes back to the motivations. Whose interest is it in to do budget partial installs?

I can tell you how much oil i use. 1600 lites a year. How are you going to work out the system design from that? Id venture to suggest you cant. Plus, rule number one. Never believe anything the customer tells you. Got that t shirt too!

Dave nails it here. Educating lots of people on a complex product just isnt going to fly. Like Dave, i did a proper appenticeship. These were long. Because it takes a long time to learn the necessary skills. Sadly this is very much out of favour these days, especially since Blair decided, and has been perpetuated, that everyone should have a degree, and if you dont, you are a failure at life. Of course, Dave is right again about a course and a ticket. Because someone can make a bunch of cash off that. It will, inevitably force out a significant number of older installers. Ref the WC, i was pondering this earlier in the week. Surely it cannot be beyond the wit of man to have it self learn. This isnt rocket science.

There is something else you have not factored in. If you simply strap a heat pump to an existing system, and assuming the other issues can be overcome, as an installer/supplier, you are taking on a potential significant risk, ie, the existing installation to which you are adding the HP. When it doesnt work, goes wrong etc, that will be the installers fault, regardless of the reality Because you were the last person to touch it, its now your problem. A lot of potential for reputational harm, which from installers view, is to save the customer money. Whilst not in plumbing or heating, been there, go that t shirt!

Yes, but we are talking about mass market installation. Whilst you might go through that excerise, nobody else will. The average man in the strett will ring an installer for a quote, and expect to get one. Not do oil consumption checks over a couple of months. Thats exactly the kind of thing that needs to be avoided and is the purpose of the thread.

Maybe historic oversizing actually works in favour of simplification????

Im on oil. So no meter. So no easy way to tell. I can tell you annualmconsumption, but thats not really useful But, not that many oil installs, so i guess only a minor issue.

As i said in my first post, your suggestions make good sense. However, i see no cause for optimisim regarding actual real world action. Sadly, i fear it will simply remain a discussion point here. Aside from it being an interesting discussion, are you proposing to actually do something about it?

A government led by the science. You mean like the last 3 years? Or was that "the science". Id prefer not to have any more of that, thanks.

Yes, i would give up. Based on whose job it is. Its simply not going to happen. Cant happen. Even if everyone involved wanted the same thing it cant happen. As not everyone involved wants the same thing it simply reduces the likelihood still further if thats even possible.

But who is going to come up with a process thats easy to follow and applies across the board? It will just be left to the individuals to figure it out. Sure, actually fitting it to an existing system isnt complicated, but specifying it correctly is. Unless you want to nationalise HP fitting? Edited to add, maybe the "local plumbers" are the fitting force, but someone else specifies? Im not sure energy usage, even if its available is that helpful. i know people who run there homes at 16/17c and a quite happy with that. i like 20/21. The difference in gas consumption though is significant. It cant be beyond the wit of man to do a "test" to measure actual heat loss if we know outside temp, inside temp and energy use in a defined period. But again, who will devise such a thing. Whose interest is it in. Answer again is nobodies that could actually do it.

Of course

Good summary. Introducing a qualification will limit an already contrained supply of people. Its also worth noting, though you say the answer is "local plumbers", many, if not most of these wil not be able to "step up" to the complexities of the new tech. Qualifications or otherwise A common problem in lots of industries. The tech moves on, like cars (my field) but the people dont. Cant. You need a smarter grade of people. But those people are simply not going to work in a cold draughty workshop. Why would they? Hence we arrive where we are. Lots of cars not getting fixed. Its going to get much worse. Sadly, ive long concluded that that government live in a parallel universe. Its all fine and good having great ideas, but if they cant be delivered, its all rather pointkess. Neither insulating homes or installing heat pumps can happen quickly. A 30 year horizon is probably realistic, 2035 or 2030 (if you are starmer) is pie in the sky. By 2030 means 77000 installs a week, starting now. We did 42000 last YEAR. The ZEV vehicle proposals will go the same way. The end result of these is the existing vehicle fleet will remain in service for much much longer, simply through necessity. Especially the light commercial fleet. The exact opposite of the intention.

An interesting thread. Id agree with much that Jamespa has said. There will be little progress in the rate on installation at current prices, subsidy or not. The progress rate talked about here is a very long way short of the targets being set. So its actually more like 2.5 million installs a year required. As James says, not going to happen due to current prices, the work involved to extensive and disruptive, and the man power to do it doesnt exist. A pull the boiler out and in stal a HP sounds like a sensible way to takcle the above. But as already noted, whose interest is it in to do £4k installs? Apart from the customer, nobody, is the answer. At the current bumbers, some people are getting wealthy quite quickly, at the taxpayers expense. Why would those on the gravy train wish to become all competative? As things stand nobody gains from disrupting the staus quo. None of the companies concerned, nor the government at the level it matters are remotely interested in if fossil fuel burning is reduced. This is just an excellent opportunity to make cash. Fast. My expectations of any kind of breakthrough anytime soon are low. I see also the talk about insulating old homes as low hanging fruit. This is well wide of the mark. Ok, double glazing and loft insulation, sure, but id hazard a guess, most have that already. The kind of level of insulation required is massively expensive, intrusive and means moving out. Solid wall properties in particular are difficult. People say EWI. Thats likely to be a disaster. Most of these buildings will have damp walls that need/are dried by air. Wrap it up in insulation, where does this moisture go? Straight inside is the answer. Insulating these older properties is a nightmare in most cases, and will also involve undoing already completed inappropiate works and materials. It makes £20k heat pumps installs look like a walk in the park. As above, who will design the solutions, who will do the work? There is not the understanding or skills to do this at scale. Simply not going to happen. If it does, it will be a shitshow of cock ups. Ive got an older property, 1850's stone cottage with a 70's extension at the back. Whilst sound, its a thermal catastophe. To do this propely will need it stripped back to bare stone, insulat walls with wool board or similar, but not too much otherwise walls will get to cold putting the dewpoint inside the wall. To insulate the slopy bits of celing needs the tiles, battens and roof felt off. Its got dormers too. Even bigger nightmare as there simply isnt room for decent levels on insulation, unless enlarged. Floor is solid concrete on mud. So all that needs to come out. 70;s bit could be cavity insulation/EPS beads. If that could get done, and done well for under £40k id be impressed. Plus that £20k heat pump install on top. And ill have to live somewhere else while its done. This simply isnt realistic. Anyone who thinks it is is nuts. This isnt going to happen at scale. So Jamespa is right, it needs a simple, effective retrofit solution. But theres no motivation for anyone to do it. And all that before we get onto the human factors already discussed. Educate the public on new heating systems? Forget it it. We are talking about people who let a kid die in a mouldy house because no one could work out it needed ventlation to get humidity under control. Anyone who thinks the public can be educated on this subject is more nuts than those above who think insulating old properties at scale is doable.

High fuel prices will just make everyone poorer. Thats it. If you cant afford the capital cost of an EV, heat pump, insulation etc, doesnt make any difference what the pay back is. You will just be poorer People proposing that as a solution, are, invariably, in a much more comfortable position than those who will suffer the most. And thats before you even consider how you would do all the things required at scale. To meet Starmers objective of no fossil fuel burning in domestic dwellings by 2030, we need to install 77000 heat pumps. a week. From now until 2030. Not going to happen. Ever. Its impossible. Anyone that thinks it is, is, frankly, a moron. Increasing the fuel price, wont make 77k installs a week happen, no matter how high the price. Which returns us to my first sentance.

There zero possibility that public transport will become good in this country. The structure of it, and its control by D(a)FT simply ensures it cant. Realistically, thats not going to change. Busy scrapping trains wholsale at the moment as a result, partly, of a drive to cut operator costs. This is being lead by D(a)FT. In the unlikely event of someone making a decision to get more passengers on the network, there wont be enough trains. Because we are scrapping them. Scrapping stuff we only just spent bucktloads of cash making compliant 3 years ago! And anything government dont want to get involved in, they just make it the councils problem. Can you imgaine a council trying to manage the installation of on street chargers at scale? The same organisation that cant fill in a pothole in less than 18 months!!! Never going to happen, Anyway, public transport is of no use to the vast majority of people as it doesnt go from where they are to where they want to go. Public transport is not an answer, just a small part of the answer.

Thats great. Apart from the fact your next PM is going to phase out gas powered electricity generation (except for 0.7% back up) by 2030. So generation will be significantly down for significant periods from your calculations. I'll be sticking to my fossil fuel powered car. I dont need to be part of what is probably going to be the single biggest government cock up in recent history. My diesel genset is at the ready.