No deal Brexit impact

[LA3222]

1 minute ago, SteamyTea said:

Unlike the xenophiles that voted to leave.

Did you mean to use the word xenophile or do you mean xenophobe? ?

[SteamyTea]

13 minutes ago, LA3222 said:

Did you mean to use the word xenophile or do you mean xenophobe? ?

The second one, xenophobe, I hate autocorrect on my phone.

[daiking]

13 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

The second one, xenophobe, I hate autocorrect on my phone.

Loads of work done to show that it isn’t about xenophobia but social issues.

 

Instead, you come out with (and get away with) the cheap ad homs?

 

?‍♂️

[Ferdinand]

22 hours ago, SteamyTea said:

I would be surprised if it that different, but it does depend what is measured, power or energy.

also some plants don't need maximum light levels, think of forest fruits.

the Netherlands has a dryer, and colder climate than us, but not by much. It is similar to Easy Anglia.

It is well irrigated these days, unlikely the UK. It is easier to manage a smaller area after all. They also benefit from neighbouring countries supplying cheao, off peak, power.

And they have a large petrochemical industry, so easy fertilisers.

And they had the Hongerwinter, where they were purposely starved.

 

Checked the number - 17% more light than the Midlands in winter.

 

Thanet Earth seem to be quite creative in management of their power too.

https://www.thanetearth.com/how-we-grow/sustainability

[SteamyTea]

12 minutes ago, daiking said:

Loads of work done to show that it isn’t about xenophobia but social issues

This is my opinion as social science is not my fields (though I had to study it, and wasted a year with social scientists once).

Nearly everything in life is sculpted by others expectations, this is something the media can play on as it is easy to do so.  There is no need to show a genuine cause and effect as, like astrology, there is no burden of proof.  The 'proof' is in the number, say enough things, to enough people, and some people will agree.

Now that has happened in the last 40 years or so in the UK is that we have had a decline in manual jobs because of globalisation.  This has affected some people much more than others.

Now if you are affected, or live in a community that is affected, then it is easy to blame the people that have got the jobs, or the people that caused them to go away.

It is also hard to see an individual who makes, what seems to be, a disproportionate amount of salary, from doing a simple task.

It is also hard to see people who are long term unemployed.

It is this unbalance in out economy that people should really be blaming, and trying to rectify, but it is much easier to blame others, while doing nothing.

When a chance to for change does come along, especially when an emotional argument, not based in fact, is used, people get swayed.  A truly rational person looks at the facts presented, not how they are presented.

Very few people are truly rational.

Just changing one word for another, can make a huge difference.

"You will be better off"

"You could be better off"

The above appealed to Brexeteers.

"You know what you can have"

"You know what you can loose"

The above appealed to  Leavers.

 

[SteamyTea]

3 minutes ago, Ferdinand said:

Checked the number - 17% more light than the Midlands in winter.

Is that maximum power, or energy?

I shall try and read the link later, just off out.

[markc]

I am a leave supporter and definitely not a xenophobe, racist, sexist, uneducated, stupid or any other name many remain supporters call me.

I based my decision on my personal beliefs and working with Europe every single day for the last 20 years and my company will continue to do so. I love Europe, but i realize the EU and Europe are totally different things.

I would also never call a remain supporter a remoaner as that is derogatory just like brexiteer.

[Ralph]

Genuine questions to the people who voted for brexit, how do you feel about no deal? If the option back at the referendum was stay in or no deal would you have still voted to go?

[markc]

1 minute ago, Ralph said:

Genuine questions to the people who voted for brexit, how do you feel about no deal? If the option back at the referendum was stay in or no deal would you have still voted to go?

My company imports construction machinery (cherry pickers) from several European countries and i would still vote to leave EU. Importing from Aus, Russia, USA, Canada etc is only a bit of paperwork and customs clearance. Suppliers and importers will always find a way to trade regardless of Political Puppetry.

My Business partner is a staunch remain supporter so its a pretty balanced operation.

[joe90]

I also would still vote leave, as John Harvey Jones said in an interview way back before the vote took place “business will succeed despite what politicians do!”.

[Ferdinand]

22 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

Is that maximum power, or energy?

I shall try and read the link later, just off out.

 

17% ref here:

https://hydromag.co.uk/industry-insider/thanet-earth/

[Ferdinand]

20 minutes ago, Ralph said:

Genuine questions to the people who voted for brexit, how do you feel about no deal? If the option back at the referendum was stay in or no deal would you have still voted to go?

 

As was said at the time, and as EU officials repeated last week, no deal is better than a (sufficiently) bad deal.

 

So we need a deal which is adequate for both parties.

[ToughButterCup]

35 minutes ago, joe90 said:

I also would still vote leave, as John Harvey Jones said in an interview way back before the vote took place “business will succeed despite what politicians do!”.

 

Another beautifully simple fallacy promulgated by some who should have known better. Careless, sloppy thinking. 

 

Business has to succeed, otherwise it fails. And , failed, is not a business any more.

For those of you who are interested in which fallacy it is ( affirmative conclusion from a negative premis) , it's here. 

 

With sincere apologies to you @joe90. It's just wrong. Not nasty wrong - just lazy thinking.

Edited December 11, 2020 by ToughButterCup

[SteamyTea]

29 minutes ago, Ferdinand said:

 

17% ref here:

But only about 10% different here.

And they don't actually say what they are measuring.

 

[Ferdinand]

28 minutes ago, ToughButterCup said:

 

Another beautifully simple fallacy promulgated by some who should have known better. Careless, sloppy thinking. 

 

Business has to succeed, otherwise it fails. And , failed, is not a business any more.

For those of you who are interested in which fallacy it is ( affirmative conclusion from a negative premis) , it's here. 

 

With sincere apologies to you @joe90. It's just wrong. Not nasty wrong - just lazy thinking.

 

I think your objectification / instantiation of "business" is a category error there. JHJ was referring to the process or practice, not the object.

 

A better comparison for what I think he means is water flowing. Under the process of business, individual businesses will fill the available opportunities, and other individual businesses will close.

 

One example is from friends in finance - equivalence with finance in the EU rather than full access, and regulatory requirements, will alter the balance between types of finance business. But also that other sectors will increase or new business will be created as a result. So the success of business is a sum of businesses, not a single item.

 

Compare to how things have adjusted in response to the changing requirements under Covid. Some individual businesses have adjusted (eg burger van lady now selling takeaways off her drive), some have ended and started doing something else.

 

F

 

* Since JHJ popped his clogs in 2008, yes it was before the vote ?. He is now in the great garage in the sky, trying to mend the Ghost of a Morgan.

 

[Bitpipe]

2 hours ago, LA3222 said:

I've just been reading an article in the guardian and had a look at the comments section. It was an interesting echo chamber - comments along the lines of cut the North loose etc. There are some very bitter people out there!

 

The NI dimension wrt Brexit is interesting (to me anyway given I'm from there).

 

The referendum decision broke on religious grounds (as do most issues in NI) with nationalists / Catholics choosing to remain 85/15 and unionists / Protestants choosing to leave 60/40.

 

As a whole, the region voted to remain 56/44.

 

https://www.qub.ac.uk/brexit/Brexitfilestore/Filetoupload,728121,en.pdf

 

Due to the requirements of the GFA, and the withdrawal agreement that came into effect Jan 2020 and last week's deal between Gove and his counterpart,  there is now more friction between the east / west NI / GB border than between the north / south UK/Ireland border.

 

The provision in the GFA to hold a 'border poll' (aka reunification) can only be activated if it's believed that a majority will vote for it.

 

Polling shows that a hard Brexit makes voting to leave UK more likely - it's probably 50/50 at the moment with the last polling in Feb 2020 finding a narrow 1.5% in favour of staying.

 

https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2020/02/24/news/border-poll-outcome-on-a-knife-edge-survey-suggests-1850028/

 

So in essence, by voting for Brexit, and a hard Brexit at that, the unionist community are accelerating the opposite to what they want.

 

Personally I think any reunification would need consent of both communities (and the ROI) to have any hope of success and maybe in 5-10 years we may be at the point, especially if it means NI can fully rejoin the EU.

 

Also needs to be said that any NI born citizen has dual nationality so they can benefit from all the freedom of movement granted to them with an Irish passport. There has been quiet but significant adoption of this in the unionist community. Many nationalists don't even bother with the UK passport now, and its about 40% more expensive too.

 

[Ferdinand]

25 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

But only about 10% different here.

And they don't actually say what they are measuring.

 

 

Could there be a coastal effect, given that Thanet Earth is one mile from the coast?

 

I guess that may be more on background temperature, or potentially cloud cover (?) Probably too far for reflected light.

[joe90]

1 hour ago, joe90 said:

I also would still vote leave, as John Harvey Jones said in an interview way back before the vote took place “business will succeed despite what politicians do!”.

apologies, (my memory is not good these days ?) it was Digby Jones that made that statement. 
 

Digby Marritt Jones, Baron Jones of Birmingham, Kt, known as Sir Digby Jones between 2005 and 2007, is a British businessman and politician, who has served as Director General of the CBI and Minister of State for Trade and Investment. He sat in the House of Lords as a non-aligned active crossbencher. 

 

quite qualified to make a statement about how business works IMO.

[SteamyTea]

2 minutes ago, Ferdinand said:

 

Could there be a coastal effect, given that Thanet Earth is one mile from the coast?

 

I guess that may be more on background temperature, or potentially cloud cover (?) Probably too far for reflected light.

It is why I was skeptical of that 17% figure. 

Like a lot of 'statistics', it needs questioning right at the start.

Don't get me wrong, I am all for intensive farming, and it is a technological playground, which is interesting.

But I will always question things that seem a bit iffy.

Like the use of artificial light, and the claim that it reduces food miles.

[joe90]

I was interested to hear plans to ban the export of live animals from the uk from next year, the French import live lambs, slaughter them there and label them “Produce of France”.

Edited December 11, 2020 by joe90

[Declan52]

16 minutes ago, Bitpipe said:

 

The NI dimension wrt Brexit is interesting (to me anyway given I'm from there).

 

The referendum decision broke on religious grounds (as do most issues in NI) with nationalists / Catholics choosing to remain 85/15 and unionists / Protestants choosing to leave 60/40.

 

As a whole, the region voted to remain 56/44.

 

https://www.qub.ac.uk/brexit/Brexitfilestore/Filetoupload,728121,en.pdf

 

Due to the requirements of the GFA, and the withdrawal agreement that came into effect Jan 2020 and last week's deal between Gove and his counterpart,  there is now more friction between the east / west NI / GB border than between the north / south UK/Ireland border.

 

The provision in the GFA to hold a 'border poll' (aka reunification) can only be activated if it's believed that a majority will vote for it.

 

Polling shows that a hard Brexit makes voting to leave UK more likely - it's probably 50/50 at the moment with the last polling in Feb 2020 finding a narrow 1.5% in favour of staying.

 

https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2020/02/24/news/border-poll-outcome-on-a-knife-edge-survey-suggests-1850028/

 

So in essence, by voting for Brexit, and a hard Brexit at that, the unionist community are accelerating the opposite to what they want.

 

Personally I think any reunification would need consent of both communities (and the ROI) to have any hope of success and maybe in 5-10 years we may be at the point, especially if it means NI can fully rejoin the EU.

 

Also needs to be said that any NI born citizen has dual nationality so they can benefit from all the freedom of movement granted to them with an Irish passport. There has been quiet but significant adoption of this in the unionist community. Many nationalists don't even bother with the UK passport now, and its about 40% more expensive too.

 

If Brexit has an impact on the farming community here then the DUP are in serious trouble. They hold the ear of most of this party and once their livelihoods start to be negatively impacted then their dead in the water. This will then push the border poll issue front and center. As you have said I don't think it would win today but in the future if Brexit turns out to be a disaster for the NI population then the chances of a United Ireland will massively increase.

[Ferdinand]

23 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

It is why I was skeptical of that 17% figure. 

Like a lot of 'statistics', it needs questioning right at the start.

Don't get me wrong, I am all for intensive farming, and it is a technological playground, which is interesting.

But I will always question things that seem a bit iffy.

Like the use of artificial light, and the claim that it reduces food miles.

Absolutely.

 

I have see at least one article  which assigns the difference to cloud cover now.

 

Quote

Light is the single most important factor. 'One per cent more light gives one per cent more production,’ van Straalen explains. That is why the complex is built where it is. The big-skied, sea-girt Isle of Thanet enjoys more light than almost anywhere else in Britain, and therefore more precious joules for the plants to photosynthesise. The operation would not be economically viable north of London because there is too much cloud cover.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/agriculture/farming/10321390/Thanet-Earth-the-farm-of-the-future.html

 

(Turn Javascript off to break the firewall)

[Ferdinand]

35 minutes ago, Declan52 said:

If Brexit has an impact on the farming community here then the DUP are in serious trouble. They hold the ear of most of this party and once their livelihoods start to be negatively impacted then their dead in the water. This will then push the border poll issue front and center. As you have said I don't think it would win today but in the future if Brexit turns out to be a disaster for the NI population then the chances of a United Ireland will massively increase.

 

Do you have the numbers for where NI sales outside NI go? How much goes to ROI / EU?

 

IIRC there is now quite a significant artisan and on-farm food businesses.

 

F

 

[daiking]

2 hours ago, Ralph said:

Genuine questions to the people who voted for brexit, how do you feel about no deal? If the option back at the referendum was stay in or no deal would you have still voted to go?

 

No deal will be a disaster but it would take unqualified levels of shithousery by Her Maj's Govt for me to give complete governance to the EU by staying in. 

[daiking]

2 hours ago, SteamyTea said:

This is my opinion as social science is not my fields (though I had to study it, and wasted a year with social scientists once).

Nearly everything in life is sculpted by others expectations, this is something the media can play on as it is easy to do so.  There is no need to show a genuine cause and effect as, like astrology, there is no burden of proof.  The 'proof' is in the number, say enough things, to enough people, and some people will agree.

Now that has happened in the last 40 years or so in the UK is that we have had a decline in manual jobs because of globalisation.  This has affected some people much more than others.

Now if you are affected, or live in a community that is affected, then it is easy to blame the people that have got the jobs, or the people that caused them to go away.

It is also hard to see an individual who makes, what seems to be, a disproportionate amount of salary, from doing a simple task.

It is also hard to see people who are long term unemployed.

It is this unbalance in out economy that people should really be blaming, and trying to rectify, but it is much easier to blame others, while doing nothing.

When a chance to for change does come along, especially when an emotional argument, not based in fact, is used, people get swayed.  A truly rational person looks at the facts presented, not how they are presented.

Very few people are truly rational.

Just changing one word for another, can make a huge difference.

"You will be better off"

"You could be better off"

The above appealed to Brexeteers.

"You know what you can have"

"You know what you can loose"

The above appealed to  Leavers.

 

 

You're right, social science is not your field.