Mad Dictators

[Beelbeebub]

2 hours ago, Spinny said:

Very unclear what you are trying to say there. Are you claiming gas and oil consumption will halve in a decade, or are you claiming UK oil and gas reserves will halve in a decade, or are you claiming global oil and gas reserves will halve in a decade ?

UK production of oil and gas

 

2 hours ago, Spinny said:

Ever heard of SMR's. And if the idiots that govern us were even remotely competent we would already have more nuclear capacity. You might also note that France has 56 reactors that provide 70% of its electricity. I believe it is not unusual for the UK, given it is run by total idiots, to have to call on energy through international connectors - energy generated by nuclear plants in France that is always available whatever the weather. Some solar panels are never going to solve that national security issue. 

I have - can you tell me how many are in operation today? 2 - one in china that took just over 11 years to build and floating one in russia that also took 10 years to build.

 

And there are 6 or so under construction with intended in service dates sometime before 2030.  

 

Ideally we would have gone ahead with the various reactors we had planned back in the early 00's and have several up and running by now, but we seem to be very bad at nuclear construction in the UK.  I'm not convinced we will get any better in the timeline we need.

 

We have 2 under construction (hinkley C and sizewell C) with a combined capacity of around 6.5 GW coming online in 2030 and late 2030's.  But that only covers the loss from the 5 existing plants shutting down before 2030, and as they are AGR's they are going to be difficult to life extend - not impossible, they will be about 40 years old at planned shutdown and the design has been extended to 50 years at other sites.  Without a time machine, nuclear isn't going to dig us out of the hole.

3 hours ago, Spinny said:

Gas and Oil has always been traded and we have managed very successfully to have gas and oil supplies and it has done a brilliant job of keeping us warm and fuelling our vehicles for many decades. The global market generally keeps prices down for what is a fungible good.

Except when they don't keep prices down.  Several years ago our gas and elec prices rocketed because a politician 1,500 miles way decided the country next door was his.  Our gas and oil prices recently shot up because a politician 3,000 miles away got mad at a country 3,000miles the other way and started flinging bombs about and suddenly, ships with oil bound for us turned round in the ocean and headed to china and the far east because they outbid us.  Environmental issues aside, oil and gas are very shaky foundations.  We struggled in ww2 for oil.  We struggled in the 70's for oil.  This isn't going to get better

 

3 hours ago, Spinny said:

Really ? So that is why government has to offer huge subsidies/price guarantees to get companies to build solar farms. Of course it costs nothing to put in pylons and cables to connect them to the grid, and the fact they can't produce anything during the hours of darkness, and little when cloudy, and can't cope if temperatures go too high can all be completely ignored when assessing their actual efficiency and true costs. The fact they are made in China is not a national security concern at all.

but they don't - they offer (in effect) fixed price deals for capacity.  Those prices are lower than a new build gas plant can offer (and that was before the higher gas prices).  And whilst there may be a security issue with inverters made in china, in the sense they could be controlled from abroad - and there are strong arguments that the uk or at least europe should be making it's own inverters or at least the software running them - the fact the panels are made in china is irrelevant.  Once you have bought them they are yours, they are dumb bits of silicon and glass that create a voltage when illuminated.  That's it.  Once you have bought them they will last for 25 years or so, churning out power every day.  A barrel of oil, on the other hand, can be used one.  Then you have to buy a new one.

 

3 hours ago, Spinny said:

Incredibly few people die from heat in the UK. Overwhelmingly old people with existing medical problems that might die a few months or a year or two earlier than they otherwise would.

Meanwhile thousands die from the cold and we definitely need heating in the winter months, But wait, no, I guess you heat a draughty 1930's house every winter using a couple of solar panels - what am I thinking ?

You realise we have wind turbines, right?  They tend to do well in the winter.  And if the sun doesnt shine and the wind doesn't blow - what will we do?  Burn gas in CCGT plants exactly as we do now.  The difference is we will be burning gas for a month or two a year rather than all year round.

 

The future energy mix will have nuclear, wind, solar (etc) lots of battery capacity and a good chunk of CCGT plants with gas storage for the times when we need them. 

[Beelbeebub]

47 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

I am going to repeat what I said about cost. Wind and PV are the cheapest forms of, and it is coming in bold , NEW generation.

It is not competing with the same contracts as legacy generation.

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