New diesel and petrol vehicles to be banned from 2040

[jamiehamy]

2 hours ago, daiking said:

I blame their parents...

 

EDIT: Those entitled youngsters demanding their driving licences

 

http://www.wctrs-society.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/abstracts/rio/selected/855.pdf

 

If I spent more than 3 seconds looking for this I could probably dispute everything in your post.

 

Of course they don't drive because they're always drinking...

 

https://www.addiction-ssa.org/commentary/the-changing-face-of-alcohol-consumption-by-young-people

 

Facebook and Twitter and real life begs to differ! Drinking and taking photos of drinks is all they appear to do. Along with incessant whinging! They don't drive because they are too lazy and have no money - not because they are drinking too much but they have expensive iPhone and clothes to buy every year to take photos of on their way to Majorca and evangelise about how terrible the world is on Twitter... 

 

I genuinely think you've got it the wrong way round - the older generation like my parents worked hard for what they have and value it,  the younger generation today expect everything to be handed to them on a plate and look to blame everyone else for what they don't have. 

[Jeremy Harris]

2 hours ago, IanR said:

 

They did, all RHD & LHD.

 

They stood as a caricature of the Italian automotive industry at the time.

 

I once stood in as navigator in a Lancia Fulvia HF1600 on the Forest of Dean rally, when a friend of a friend broke his leg just beforehand.  The engine was wonderful, the rest of the car disintegrated around us.  By the last stage my seat had collapsed, and was essentially a load of bits of broken metal inside a foam-filled bag, so I was hanging on to the roll cage with one hand whilst trying to read pace notes held in the other.  The driver kept telling me to let go of the roll cage, as he'd already rolled the car twice before previously. 

[Crofter]

Do we allow ageism on this forum?

 

The problem with generalisations- whether they are based on race, gender, age, income, whatever- is that they are wrong. Not just morally wrong, but factually wrong as well. No group of people is entirely homogenous, so as soon as you start using terms like "they are all lazy/greedy/etc" then you are onto a loser.

 

Can we get this thread back on topic, please?

[jamiehamy]

I'm being very tongue in cheek in response to a comment that somehow the young and genuinely more planet conscious - I don't believe they are. And as I say,  I could be considered one of that generation... 

 

There is a simple textual obssrvation somewhere that supports my argument,  I'll dig it out. It's unanswerable and better written than ever I could. 

[jamiehamy]

Found it. 

 

"Checking out at the store, the young cashier suggested to the much older woman, that she should bring her own grocery bags because plastic bags weren't good for the environment.

 

The woman apologized and explained, "We didn't have this 'green thing' back in my earlier days."

 

The young clerk responded, "That's our problem today. Your generation did not care enough to save our environment for future
generations."She was right -- our generation didn't have the 'green thing' in our day.Back then, we returned milk bottles, soda bottles and beer bottles to the store. The store sent them back to the plant to be washed and sterilized and refilled, so it could use the same bottles over and over.

So they really were recycled.But we didn't have the "green thing" back in our day.Grocery stores bagged our groceries in brown paper bags, that we reused for numerous things, most memorable besides household garbage bags, was the use of brown paper bags as book covers for our schoolbooks. This was to ensure that public property, (the books provided for our use by the school) was not defaced by our scribblings.  Then we were able to personalize our books on the brown paper bags.But too bad we didn't do the "green thing" back then.We walked up stairs, because we didn't have an escalator in every store and office building. We walked to the grocery store and didn't climb into a 300-horsepower machine every time we had to go two blocks.But she was right. We didn't have the "green thing" in our day.

Back then, we washed the baby's diapers because we didn't have the throwaway kind. We dried clothes on a line, not in an energy-gobbling machine burning up 220 volts -- wind and solar power really did dry our clothes back in our early days. Kids got hand-me-down clothes from their brothers or sisters, not always brand-new clothing.

But that young lady is right; we didn't have the "green thing" back in our day.

Back then, we had one TV, or radio, in the house -- not a TV in every room. And the TV had a small screen the size of a handkerchief (remember them?), not a screen the size of the state of Montana.

In the kitchen, we blended and stirred by hand because we didn't have electric machines to do everything for us. When we packaged a fragile item to send in the mail, we used wadded up old newspapers to cushion it, not Styrofoam or plastic bubble wrap. Back then, we didn't fire up an engine and burn gasoline just to cut the lawn. We used a push mower that ran on human power. We exercised by working so we didn't need to go to a health club to run on treadmills that operate on electricity.But she's right; we didn't have the "green thing" back then.We drank from a fountain when we were thirsty instead of using a cup or a plastic bottle every time we had a drink of water. We refilled writing pens with ink instead of buying a new pen, and we replaced the razor blades in a razor instead of throwing away the whole razor just because the blade got dull.But we didn't have the "green thing" back then.Back then, people took the streetcar or a bus and kids rode their bikes to school or walked instead of turning their moms into a 24-hour taxi service in the family's $45,000 SUV or van, which cost what a whole house did before the "green thing." We had one electrical outlet in a room, not an entire bank of sockets to power a dozen appliances. And we didn't need a computerized gadget to receive a signal beamed from satellites 23,000 miles out in space in order to find the nearest burger joint.But isn't it sad the current generation laments how wasteful we old folks were just because we didn't have the "green thing" back then?"

[ProDave]

So, back to IC engined cars. There has been a lot about this in the news today. It seems the plan is to ban their sale in 2040, then ban their USE in 2050.

 

So they are going to force you to scrap a 10 year old vehicle?

 

What about classic cars. Will we no longer be able to use them at all?

 

(all a bit tongue in cheek, I will be 87 by then, if I am not pushing up the daises by then, I probably won't have much apatite for driving much, but then you never know.....)

 

Also a lot of talk of what will they do to replace the massive tax take on road fuel?  Enjoy the honeymoon period of free road tax and cheap energy for EV's. it won't can't last.

[Crofter]

Where did you hear 2050? I heard that there was no date for taking existing ICE vehicles off the road.

 

It would be nice to think that a solution can be found whereby the small numbers of classic/older vehicles, doing very small annual mileages, can be kept on the road. Perhaps a mileage based system?

[Onoff]

I'm hoping retro fitting of electric motors into classics will become a thing. A guy in the States has done a 1965 Ford Cortina.  A lad in Croatia is working on a MK1 Capri with a hybrid drive train. 

[Crofter]

My guess is that ownership and useage habits will have a bigger impact than the way we power our vehicles.

Driverless cars that are in near constant use, and simply rented out like a taxi when needed, make quite a compelling case. For the vast majority of the population it will make more sense to hail the nearest vehicle via your phone, and simply pay a relatively low fee per mile, than to actually own a car with all of its attendant costs and hassle. If ridesharing continues to grow, we might see buses gradually replaced by multi-seat driverless vehicles all taking a few people on a point to point journey.

 

For people like me, out in the sticks, it makes far less sense. But people like me are too small a proportion of the population to really matter. Also someone is going to have to come up with a clever way of integrating child seats into cars, because people are not going to walk around carrying them.

[Trw144]

28 minutes ago, Crofter said:

Where did you hear 2050? I heard that there was no date for taking existing ICE vehicles off the road.

 

It would be nice to think that a solution can be found whereby the small numbers of classic/older vehicles, doing very small annual mileages, can be kept on the road. Perhaps a mileage based system?

 

Makes me want to start collecting more ICE cars now - and shares in a racetrack so I can go use them on weekends

[ProDave]

Just now, Onoff said:

I'm hoping retro fitting of electric motors into classics will become a thing. A guy in the States has done a 1965 Ford Cortina.  A lad in Croatia is working on a MK1 Capri with a hybrid drive train. 

But classic car ownership is all about originality. I won't even fit a radio in my Landy as it was not original equipment (and I can't find one loud enough)

[Jeremy Harris]

Look at the government track record on stuff like this.

 

We had the Code for Sustainable Homes - scrapped

 

We had the Zero Carbon Homes target - scrapped

 

We has big VED incentives for low emissions vehicles, with zero rates for a lot of very low emissions vehicles - scrapped and replaced by a far less incentivising scheme

 

We were supposed to have fuel duty escalation, to increase the price of fule year on year to above the rate of inflation, to reduce emissions - effectively scrapped as it keeps being reset to zero every budget.

 

We had the Green Deal, supposedly to incentivise the fitting of more efficient heating systems etc - Unworkable because it was far too costly and complex.

 

We have seen how daft the RHI and MCS schemes are - neither incentivise reducing energy use, they just add cost to the consumer.

 

I've probably missed a few out, but frankly there are so many dire government intitatives related to reducing emissions that I can't believe this one will be any different.  Industry and the market have driven change, not government.  Companies like Toyota, with their disruptive technology, in the form of the first very successful hybrid cars, have had a far greater impact than our government.

Edited July 26, 2017 by JSHarris

[ProDave]

Some more interesting discussions. How are people with no off road parking expected to charge their EV at home? will it become acceptable to have long extension leads crossing the pavement and possibly the road?  Confirms my long held belief that off road parking is a 100% must have of any house I own.

 

Someone mentioned the high cost of an EV is offset by the cheaper fuel cost.

 

Some fag packet maths.  My previous car had done 170K miles. Let's assume 40mpg, or 8 miles per litre, at £1.10 per litre it would have burned 21,250 litres or £23.3K worth of fuel.  Even if ALL the electrricity ro charge it was free, the purchase price of an EV would cost more than the purchase price and lifetime of fuel for an IC car, and that's before you factor in battery replacement at least once.

 

[NSS]

Not sure what all the fuss is about. The car will have evolved enormously by 2040, as it has in the last 23 years. For example, the European Car of the Year award was won, in 1995, by that shining example of modern motoring, the Fiat Punto. 

[Jeremy Harris]

3 minutes ago, NSS said:

Not sure what all the fuss is about. The car will have evolved enormously by 2040, as it has in the last 23 years. For example, the European Car of the Year award was won, in 1995, by that shining example of modern motoring, the Fiat Punto. 

 

Very true.  In 1995 I was driving an XJ-S, that did around 18mpg on a good day.  10 years later, in 2005 I traded in my SLK320, that did around 30mpg, for the then car of the year, a Toyota Prius, that averaged around 56mpg.  12 years on I'm on my third Prius, but this one averages around 130mpg, and over the past few weeks of warm weather hasn't dropped below 160mpg.

[NSS]

1 minute ago, JSHarris said:

 

Very true.  In 1995 I was driving an XJ-S, that did around 18mpg on a good day.  10 years later, in 2005 I traded in my SLK320, that did around 30mpg, for the then car of the year, a Toyota Prius, that averaged around 56mpg.  12 years on I'm on my third Prius, but this one averages around 130mpg, and over the past few weeks of warm weather hasn't dropped below 160mpg.

In 1981 I was driving a 1965 Buick Riviera 425ci Super Wildcat that did 7mpg (on 5*  fuel). I now drive a Jag XE R-Sport that averages over 50mpg and I have recently returned over 80mpg on a trip to Birmingham and back. 

 

Battery technology will make similar advances, volume production will lower prices, and tests are already underway with 'in road' charging that will make it possible to top up battery levels as you drive.

[Onoff]

Wireless charging tech exists now for EVs. Maybe theyll have them built into on road parking spaces.

[Crofter]

There's also the concept of vehicles becoming integrated with the grid, as storage. Quite a complex one to get right, but compelling nonetheless.

[reddal]

54 minutes ago, ProDave said:

How are people with no off road parking expected to charge their EV at home?

 

My guess is people wont park their car by their home at all. You will get out of your car at home - then the car will drive itself to an underground car park nearby, charge itself, and be ready near your house when it predicts you will need it next. In fact the whole idea of everyone owning a vehicle will probably disappear - you will just press a button on your phone and one of millions of shared vehicles will arrive seconds later.

 

On the original subject of this proposed future ban - I support it if the idea is just to signal to people that they should think more seriously about buying electric vehicles. However I hope they don't actually go ahead with the ban. By then IC engined cars will be a niche for enthusiasts only - and why not. I don't like the idea of big brother prohibiting things unless there is a very good justification.

[ProDave]

Of course the cynic will say this is just a sticking plaster ignoring the "real" issues.

 

The thrust of this is to solve the air polution issues in city centre streets.

 

The real issues are why the hell do so many people want to cram themselves in close proximity to so many others? Country living in villages is so much better?  And the real issue is there are simply too many people, but that's the taboo issue nobody will even mention let alone debate.

 

So we "solve" this by everyone converting to en EV. Where do you think the electricity to charge them all will come from?  The FIT scheme is effectively dead so I can't see a massive growth in personal solar PV. Besides most will want to charge them at home in the evening and there's no sun even if you have PV. Charging your car from self generated solar PV is a luxury for the retired.

 

And with all this extra demand for electricity, what's that going to do for overall polution OUTSIDE the cities? and which way do you think electricity prices will go with all this extra demand? That's not just EV charging electricity, but your domestic electricity as well.  Someone needs to "invent" red electricity (the equivalent of red diesel) so the tax bandwagon can tax vehicle charging like it presently taxes road fuel.

 

We are being sold the myth that EV's are "green" which can only be true if the power to charge them is not from fossil fuels. THAT is one hell of a big challenge. We can't even generate enough of the present electricity usage by green means, yet we have put in motion a plan to massively increase electricity demand.

 

(off to get my tin hat)

[Crofter]

Population growth is only a taboo in as much as it is a massive economic driver. It is also not a given. As countries transition towards better living standards and healthcare, birthrates fall. In the West we now see populations begining to stagnate, and there is little reason to presume that this trend cannot continue to spread across the world. My own granny was one of ten children, perfectly normal two generations ago. Now anything over two kids is unusual. Don't make the mistake of saying that certain countries or cultures will never change.

 

But back to cars. Grid connection can be the key here. Peak vehicle use is around rush hour, with the majority of vehicles sat parked up during the day. So long as they are parked somewhere that they can be charging up, then there is no problem with using them as a dump for PV output. But this has to be done on a national scale.

 

Another factor which we haven't yet discussed is changes in working patterns. We ought to all work out of our (paperless) home offices by now, but it hasn't quite got there yet. That is the general direction, though, and automation might accelerate it, along with other changes at which we can only guess.

[jack]

3 hours ago, Onoff said:

I'm hoping retro fitting of electric motors into classics will become a thing. A guy in the States has done a 1965 Ford Cortina.  A lad in Croatia is working on a MK1 Capri with a hybrid drive train. 

 

It's already a thing. Search "classic car electric conversions".

 

I liked the Ferrari 308 GT4 that some university converted a year or two ago. It was a burnt out shell and they did it as a project.

[jack]

1 hour ago, reddal said:

My guess is people wont park their car by their home at all. You will get out of your car at home - then the car will drive itself to an underground car park nearby, charge itself, and be ready near your house when it predicts you will need it next. In fact the whole idea of everyone owning a vehicle will probably disappear - you will just press a button on your phone and one of millions of shared vehicles will arrive seconds later.

 

Yes, yes and yes. For all but the wealthiest and car-obsessed, this is how it will work.

[ProDave]

Just now, Crofter said:

Another factor which we haven't yet discussed is changes in working patterns. We ought to all work out of our (paperless) home offices by now, but it hasn't quite got there yet. That is the general direction, though, and automation might accelerate it, along with other changes at which we can only guess.

This is a good point.  WHY do so many commute so far for work? Something the likes of HS2 will only increase.  What is driving people to live so far from work? Commuting has never done it for me (an hour each way on the works bus during my aprenticeship put me off that for life) I have always wanted to live somewhere close to my work, and more importantly, somewhere with not traffic jams en-route.  It we tackled the commuting issue, that would go a long way to solving the vehicle emissions problem.

[daiking]

3 minutes ago, ProDave said:

This is a good point.  WHY do so many commute so far for work? Something the likes of HS2 will only increase.  What is driving people to live so far from work? Commuting has never done it for me (an hour each way on the works bus during my aprenticeship put me off that for life) I have always wanted to live somewhere close to my work, and more importantly, somewhere with not traffic jams en-route.  It we tackled the commuting issue, that would go a long way to solving the vehicle emissions problem.

 

Because successive governments have fubar'd jobs and housing. As to demographics in another post, why do you think successive governments have championed unlimited open door immigration?

 

There is a good chance that by 2040, we will be living somewhere very different to today. Given the lack of security in all areas of life the young and the poor face. cheap freedom to travel must surely be next on government hit lists. I can easily see private ownership of vehicles disappearing with the ICE and the pricing structure of communal transport meaning people will just about to be able to afford to commute and visit local attractions (vices obviously) but anything further will be prohibitive. It will be like going back a few hundred years.