ASHP vs LPG - Round 2

[Roger440]

10 minutes ago, epsilonGreedy said:

 

 

The issue is about growth rate. Your figures illustrate how many ASHP installers are new to the business and how many newly formed business in this sector will be inducing these inexperienced installers with more money to install the next 3 million ASHPs. This is the economic environment that leads to high prices and screwed up ASHP installations.

 

Pretty much sums up what will happen. Or rather is happening.

 

5 years from now, lots of hand wringing, statements about lessons being learnt, lots of companies having "disappeared" as fast as they came, clutching vast sums of taxpayer cash. And lots of people with ineffectual heating systems. 

 

As inevitable as night follows day.........................................

[epsilonGreedy]

5 hours ago, Ferdinand said:

 

That could be down to 30-35% over the summer, and only go back to 40% at this time next year.

 

 

What low carbon progress do you expect to arrive over the next year to achieve such a startling change in energy generation?

 

The reality is that we will likely see a rise in carbon-based UK electricity generation because our nuclear capacity is being retired early with 1.4GW due to be lost this year. New wind farm capacity will only nudge the dial a percent or two each year, for example the biggest recent news in wind farms was Triton Knoll which took years to build and came online last year with 0.8GW capacity.

 

 

[SteamyTea]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_the_United_Kingdom

Shows that between 2019 and 2020, wind generation went from ~65000 GWh to ~75000 GWh generation.

That is about 25% of what was generated.

Gas fired was 10% higher, and nuclear 7.5% lower.

And last year, even after the non story about lack of wind, the lights stayed on.

 

But where is the fun in letting experts and highly qualified engineers run a critical service.

It would be so much better if political commentators and arts graduates run the National Grid, maybe a few historians would help keep the the frequency in check.

[JohnMo]

40 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_the_United_Kingdom

Shows that between 2019 and 2020, wind generation went from ~65000 GWh to ~75000 GWh generation.

That is about 25% of what was generated.

Gas fired was 10% higher, and nuclear 7.5% lower.

And last year, even after the non story about lack of wind, the lights stayed on.

 

But where is the fun in letting experts and highly qualified engineers run a critical service.

It would be so much better if political commentators and arts graduates run the National Grid, maybe a few historians would help keep the the frequency in check.

Bit dangerous quoting wikipedia.  So much duff information on there.

 

Agree it's so good we have have all these well educated (in wrong subject matter) running the show.

[SteamyTea]

36 minutes ago, JohnMo said:

Bit dangerous quoting wikipedia.  So much duff information on there.

Much much less than on here from some people.

 

Pretty close as they are quoting easily checkable figures.  You can download all the last 12 years data from templar.

[J1mbo]

2 hours ago, SteamyTea said:

Much much less than on here from some people.

 

Or even worse, the bbc

[J1mbo]

On 12/02/2022 at 10:22, CotswoldDoItUpper said:

We are having the same dilemma but we’ve just fixed our LPG at 34+vat p/L for 2 years with Avanti Gas. Kinda made the decision for us! Despite wanting to go ASHP route, we’re sticking with the existing set up and not spending the initial outlay for the ‘green’ alternative.

 

I would be very interested to find a verifiable source of anything remotely close to this figure that is available now.

[SBMS]

1 hour ago, J1mbo said:

 

I would be very interested to find a verifiable source of anything remotely close to this figure that is available now.

 

Great source of what’s currently out there: https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/1003291/bulk-lpg-cheapest-suppliers-supply-route/p381

Current fix price contracts are hovering around 40ppl. My parents are on 38ppl with a 4ppl surcharge due to rising prices to 42ppl (extragas, north west). 

[J1mbo]

Thanks. My understanding is that LPG is basically a by-product and that most industrial process machinery is not allowed to use it, which leaves demand for it pretty flat with bottled supplies, home heating, and refineries themselves basically which I suppose is holding down the price. That said, the spot rates seem to be following the price (per kWh) of oil so it seems the LPG suppliers must be well hedged for now and that the current party is unlikely to last.

[CotswoldDoItUpper]

11 hours ago, J1mbo said:

 

I would be very interested to find a verifiable source of anything remotely close to this figure that is available now.

I only did it mid way thru January. Call them and ask!

I was offered:

34p+vat from Avanti Gas

and

35p+vat from Flogas

Edited February 15, 2022 by CotswoldDoItUpper

[ProDave]

13 minutes ago, CotswoldDoItUpper said:

I was offered:

34p+vat from Avanti Gas

and

35p+vat from Flogas

I always thought with a bulk tank, only the tank owner would fill it and service it.

 

Has that market opened up now so any supplier can service any bulk tank?  Or were both offering to install their own tank and supply at those prices?

[SBMS]

1 minute ago, ProDave said:

I always thought with a bulk tank, only the tank owner would fill it and service it.

 

Has that market opened up now so any supplier can service any bulk tank?  Or were both offering to install their own tank and supply at those prices?

Generally you sign up to a supplier for 24 months and they transfer ownership of the tank to themselves. At that point only they can fill it. Once the term ends you are free to find another supplier and the process happens again. 

[ProDave]

1 minute ago, SBMS said:

Generally you sign up to a supplier for 24 months and they transfer ownership of the tank to themselves. At that point only they can fill it. Once the term ends you are free to find another supplier and the process happens again. 

Thanks.  That must be new as I am sure you used to be tied in to the original supplier of the tank.

[JohnMo]

I think it all changed when it was deemed a non competitive strategy, same time as the mains gas market opened up.

[CotswoldDoItUpper]

4 hours ago, ProDave said:

I always thought with a bulk tank, only the tank owner would fill it and service it.

 

Has that market opened up now so any supplier can service any bulk tank?  Or were both offering to install their own tank and supply at those prices?

Afaik the tank owner (supplier) services the tank  during the contracted period. Then if you wish to switch supplier the new supplier buys the tank etc from the old supplier. When I switched from Flogas they sold the tank (and my custom) to Avanti Gas. I was out of contract with Flogas so this was possible. I guess they could have refused to sell the tank, but I don’t know how that would work.

[Ferdinand]

On 14/02/2022 at 12:58, epsilonGreedy said:

On 14/02/2022 at 12:58, epsilonGreedy said:

That could be down to 30-35% over the summer, and only go back to 40% at this time next year.

What low carbon progress do you expect to arrive over the next year to achieve such a startling change in energy generation?

 

The reality is that we will likely see a rise in carbon-based UK electricity generation because our nuclear capacity is being retired early with 1.4GW due to be lost this year. New wind farm capacity will only nudge the dial a percent or two each year, for example the biggest recent news in wind farms was Triton Knoll which took years to build and came online last year with 0.8GW capacity.

 

 

 

It isn't startling imo. Let me take you through it.

 

My samples of elec generation (=elec use as near as dammit) are Gridwatch graphs. I am taking the last month as a proxy for "winter" and the whole year as a proxy for the whole year.

 

Percentages of elec supply. Gas fired is orange. Offshore wind is turquoise.  

 

https://gridwatch.co.uk/demand/percent

 

Actual amounts in GWh:

 

Assumptions 

 

1 - The % share for gas / wind / nuclear in energy production over the year are something like 40%:30%:20%, judging by that - but let's work with my generous 50% guestimate for now for % of electricity made by gas.

2 - Total demand is about 35 GW in the winter, falling to 28GW in the summer - a fall of 20%. 

3 - Offshore wind farm availability is now around 60%. ie a 1GW nameplate capacity windfarm will produce an average of .6GW output (Production Based Availability, which is the one relevant to total generation).

https://www.ourenergypolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Definitions-of-availability-terms-for-the-wind-industry-white-paper-09-08-2017.pdf

 

Generation of Electricity

 

4 - So eg Triton Knoll with 857 MW nominal capacity should produce something around 514 MW, or call it 0.5 GW. The first turbine there went active in Sept last year, and will be fully operational by end of Q1.

5 - There are two big wind farms coming on stream this year in addition to Triton Knoll. That is Hornsea 2 (1,386 MW nameplate capacity = .83 GW actual), and Moray East (950 MW nameplate capacity = .57 GW actual).

6 - In addition we now have an up to extra 1.4 GW actual supply from the North Sea Link,  which was half turned on in Oct 2021, and is now fully active at 1.4 GW. This is 2 way so is available when we need it, and ditto Norway.

7 - Plus the burnt down French interconnector is due back online by Dec 2022. That is worth another 1 GW, and usually exports from France to us the majority of the time.

8 - So to set against the 1.4GW going offline with the nuclear, between Sep 21 and Dec 22 we have 1.9 GW actual which is ours coming on stream, and another up to 2.4GW which is available as required. Up to 4.3 GW overall. 

 

Gas Calc

 

9 - Now consider if Gas currently supplies my over-estimate of 50% of electricity, and Winter Demand is 35 GW. And summer demand is 28 GW. Gas therefore supplies around 17GW of electricity in winter, and 14 GW in summer (though the 12 months of data above argues that it is more like 14-15 GW and 11-11.5 GW respectively due to my generous 50% assumption).

 

10 - Our new coming-online resources are worth a conservative 3.5 GW of generation, which can switch directly out from gas, and on gas generation of 14 GW or 17 GW represent 20% of gas generated electricity in winter and -25% of gas generated electricity in summer.

 

Halve those to get a % of the overall electricity supply and you get 10% or 12.5% shift from gas generated electricity to other sources. 

 

11 - Which numbers, once we use the data from the graphs at the top, give a reduction in the 10-15% range ie Gas generated electricity falling to 35-40% from the current 50%. Which is very roughly where my estimate came from.

 

12 - I think my assumptions are quite central and balanced, and I have not factored in reduced usage from higher prices, or the amount usage has been ticking down each year.

 

13 - To take account of the nuclear 1.4 GW closure that I was unaware of, my 50% base case for the amount of electricity generated from gas is generous as pointed out - and reducing that just to 45%, which I suggest is still generous, will account for that difference. A 10-12.5% shift of gas generated electricity to the other sources I have identified will put it in the range 32.5-35%.

 

14 - There are a few things we can quibble about around the edges, such as the impact on the winter 22 numbers of the first 200 GW of Triton and the first part of North Sea link being onstream, but I think the reduction in gas share of electricity generated in 2022 is going to be significant.

 

15 - Which is why I think the Govt have been right to take a short-term attitude to mitigating price rises, as I think they need to be nimble due to rapid change happening.

 

But I wish they had done something far simpler such as "the cap will not rise at all, we will provide medium term borrowing to the industry for the difference, and this is the new expanded insulation etc programme that will take the £150 of green taxes off bills whilst doing the renovation job 3-4x more quickly". 

 

Which would have kept it all out of the inflation rate, and be totally flexible.

 

16 - I guess one potential change is if electricity jumps up after COVID, but as we will not all be at home all day it cuts both ways. The highest demand increase prediction for 2022 I have seen is 3-4%, whilst the 4 GW approx new supply capacity is much larger.

 

(As you know, I do not think that electric cars will drive up demand appreciably for several years.)

 

F 

[epsilonGreedy]

@Ferdinandyou need to rework your projections and factor in the following:

 

Total installed wind capacity in the UK is 24GW

Peak wind output in 2021 was 14GW

Average wind output was 5.6GW

 

You are greatly overestimating net increase due to new wind farms.

 

By 2028 the UK power insecurity period will be over but until then we are in for a difficult time.

 

Re. The new link to Norway. Is this good news from either a kWh or CO2 perspective?

[redtop]

On 13/02/2022 at 12:26, PeterW said:

eh..?? Decent gas boiler, £1200 plus the gas pipework and about a day of a GSR to fit it so another £500.  9kW ASHP £2300 plus a day of any plumber to fit it so say £300 on top. £1700 vs £2600 is small change in a £300k build cost. 

Nit sure thats comparing like for like. Quick Google and gas boilers from 800 quid to 1200 ish. 9kw ashp from 2300 up to 4500. And our GSR charges around 250 a day, is brilliant but would have to learn how to fit an ASHP. 

[redtop]

Just checked, we went for a gas combi boiler. 2k fitted with filter including the 360 quid for the mains gas supply. 10 year guarantee. Now this might not be a popular choice on here. Double the level of  insulation of building regs plus airtightness of 4.7. We also didn't need MVHR. 

 

2k. All in and we don't use much gas for heating given the insulation. And we were able to have a gas hob. No space taken up by a hot water tank, no heating water when not needed and as 2 of live here no need to run 2 showers at once. 

 

Now we don't live near a main road, no outside noise, no nasty smells as we are 400m from the sea. 

 

I think everyone agrees max out on the insulation. Get the airtightness good. Once there the heating energy demand should be so low why not go for the cheapest install option available?

[Dave Jones]

On 13/02/2022 at 12:26, PeterW said:

eh..?? Decent gas boiler, £1200 plus the gas pipework and about a day of a GSR to fit it so another £500.  9kW ASHP £2300 plus a day of any plumber to fit it so say £300 on top. £1700 vs £2600 is small change in a £300k build cost. 

 

bit disingenuous. 

 

You are leaving out the tanks, pipework and room to store it all for a heat pump.

 

Realistically no one will supply and fit an ASHP, tanks, pipes etc for £2300. More like £10k.

 

None of which is necessary with a combi.

[Ferdinand]

10 hours ago, epsilonGreedy said:

@Ferdinandyou need to rework your projections and factor in the following:

Can you justify these numbers with a source before I rework, please? Happy to do so, however.

 

Quote

Total installed wind capacity in the UK is 24GW

Accept that. 24.4 GW current wind nameplate power capacity.

 

Quote

Peak wind output in 2021 was 14GW

This actually seems to be 17.6 GW, ie 25% higher than your number - though estimates such as we are doing need mean averages and totals, not peaks. On May 4 2021.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/may/21/may-gales-help-britain-set-record-for-wind-power-generation

 

Quote

Average wind output was 5.6GW

 

I make that more like 8.6 GW, which is 50+% higher than your number.

 

Based on wind energy generated of 75,369 GWh (2020 Govt Environmental Accounts), divide by (24*365), gives a mean average power output of 8.60 GW.

 

Quote

You are greatly overestimating net increase due to new wind farms.

 

By 2028 the UK power insecurity period will be over but until then we are in for a difficult time.

 

Are you missing that Offshore wind has a far higher capacity factor than Onshore wind, and all the new fields are offshore?

 

For offshore it is 46% - just under half, and for onshore it is 28%.  

 

For new offshore wind coming on stream it is higher, which is why I use 0.5 or 50% in my estimate.

 

Quote

Re. The new link to Norway. Is this good news from either a kWh or CO2 perspective?

 

Seems so to me.

 

1 - In resilience terms, we get a new stable source of elec,which is overwhelmingly low carbon - 90%+ in No is hydro. Part of teh answer to "occasionally no wind, sometimes no sun"?

2 - In C02 terms that's clearly a benefit. National Grid have an animated presentation of live. Nat Grid say they save 3 million tonnes a year, even without full data from the new one. data: https://www.nationalgridcleanenergy.com/powerofnow/

3 - In kWh, it is extra capacity if required - at a time when we are seeking to increase renewable supply availability.

4 - In £, it is a more open market, and aiui Norway Link gives us access to another pricing pool. Plus I see no reason why we can't end up being more of an exporter over say 8-15 years.

5 - Politically, diversity of supply has to be good, surely? I'll avoid politics, however, beyond noting Mr Macaron's efforts to use it as a political lever - electricity being France's 2nd or 3rd largest export to the UK. 

 

There's quite an interesting pipeline of interconnectors coming on stream (somewhat old list, and I'd expect some of these to fail): https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/energy-policy-and-regulation/policy-and-regulatory-programmes/interconnectors

 

F

 

[SteamyTea]

26 minutes ago, Ferdinand said:

I make that more like 8.6 GW, which is 50+% higher than your number.

 

Based on wind energy generated of 75,369 GWh (2020 Govt Environmental Accounts), divide by (24*365), gives a mean average power output of 8.60 GW.

What I made it as well, for 2020.

Edited February 17, 2022 by SteamyTea

[epsilonGreedy]

41 minutes ago, Ferdinand said:

Can you justify these numbers with a source before I rework, please? Happy to do so, however.

 

 

Your original post lead with data from GridWatch and I chose to debunk your predictions by exclusively using data from GridWatch. In response you now cherry pick from multiple sources including the Guardian.

 

Rampant gas price inflation and astonishing kWh price inflation illustrate that wind is not yet delivering what you claim. There is a 5 to 10 year gap between reality and your happy clappy tree hugger view of the world. That reality gap is causing real suffering millions of Britons.

[SteamyTea]

40 minutes ago, epsilonGreedy said:

Your original post lead with data from GridWatch and I chose to debunk your predictions by exclusively using data from GridWatch

I seem to remember that Gridwatch does not meter all generation, certainly the case with PV.

What total wind generation are you getting for 2019 and 2020?

[epsilonGreedy]

2 hours ago, SteamyTea said:

I seem to remember that Gridwatch does not meter all generation, certainly the case with PV.

 

 

GridWatch is just a weekend side project run by an enterprising computer programmer. He publishes data from industry realtime feeds. The PV data is synthetic produced by a model created by Sheffield University. GridWatch wind data should be good.

 

2 hours ago, SteamyTea said:

What total wind generation are you getting for 2019 and 2020?

 

 

https://gridwatch.co.uk/Wind