Where is the kWh price heading in 2022?

[Temp]

Just before the pandemic some energy companies were setting up tariffs that paid you to use electricity at certain times of low demand. Seems like a distant memory..

 

https://www.energylivenews.com/2018/02/22/want-to-get-paid-to-use-electricity/

 

 

Quote

 

Octopus Energy’s new Agile tariff reflects wholesale costs, which means it will pass “negative prices” to customers if there is excess power supply.

In the UK, as energy consumption falls, there are big drops in prices due to over supply and generators can be paid to stop exporting power to the grid.

That would typically happen on windy, sunny weekends when solar panels and wind turbines are generating a lot of electricity and demand is relatively low

 

 

[Radian]

40 minutes ago, Temp said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/08/11/markets-live-latest-coronavirus-news-pound-euro-ftse-100/

 

"Consultancy Auxilione said Ofgem may have to set the price cap at £5,038 per year for the average household amid elevated gas prices."

 

 

What's the current definition of fuel poverty? It used to be an energy bill more than 10% of income. I think it's been changed since then.

[Ferdinand]

16 minutes ago, Radian said:

 

What's the current definition of fuel poverty? It used to be an energy bill more than 10% of income. I think it's been changed since then.

 

These definitions may be slightly out of date. I think England now has am additional criterion related to the EPC band of the dwelling. 

 

Comparison is difficult because it is devolved, and they are all different. This is from Scottish Energy Action.

 

I'd welcome anything more up to date.

 

Quote

Scotland

In 2018, 619,000 households (25% of the total) were in fuel poverty.

(Source: The Scottish House Condition Survey 2018, January 2020, Scottish Government)

The definition of fuel poverty in Scotland is if a household spends more than 10% of its income on fuel costs and if the remaining household income is insufficient to maintain an adequate standard of living.

See Definitions and Targets - Scotland for more information

Wales

In 2018, 155,000 households were classed as fuel poor (12% of the total).

Wales uses a 10% indicator to measure fuel poverty.

Wales had a target to eradicate fuel poverty, as far as reasonably practicable, by 2018. The Welsh Government has committed to consult on a new plan to tackle fuel poverty in the autumn of 2019, with the intention of publishing a final revised plan early in 2020.

(Source: Fuel poverty estimates for Wales: 2018, December 2019, Welsh Government)

To find out more, visit NEA Cymru

Northern Ireland

A modelled estimate was produced for 2018 of 131,000 or 18% of households. This was based on the 2016 figure of 160,000 households in fuel poverty (22% of the total) using the 10% indicator.

Northern Ireland uses a 10% indicator, but has no statutory target.

(Source: Estimates of fuel poverty in NI in 2017 and 2018, May 2019, Northern Ireland Housing Executive)

To find out more, visit NEA Northern Ireland

England

The latest figures for England show that in 2017, the number of households in fuel poverty was estimated at 2.53 million, representing approximately 10.9% of all English households.

(Source: Annual Fuel Poverty Statistics Report, BEIS, June 2019)

England uses the Low Income High Costs definition to measure fuel poverty. This states that a household is in fuel poverty if their income is below the poverty line (taking into account energy costs) and their energy costs are higher than is typical for their household type.

England has a fuel poverty target for as many fuel poor homes as reasonably practicable to achieve an energy efficiency standard of Band C by 2030.

To find out more, visit NEA

 

https://www.eas.org.uk/en/fuel-poverty-across-the-uk_50535/#:~:text=The definition of fuel poverty,an adequate standard of living.

 

[SteamyTea]

21 minutes ago, Radian said:

What's the current definition of fuel poverty?

Don't really matter, not as if you get given money if you qualify.

 

If that was the case with transport, I woud fly around the world.

[Ferdinand]

1 hour ago, Temp said:

Just before the pandemic some energy companies were setting up tariffs that paid you to use electricity at certain times of low demand. Seems like a distant memory..

 

https://www.energylivenews.com/2018/02/22/want-to-get-paid-to-use-electricity/

 

 

 

 

I think that is a question we may have to face Europe-wide in about 15 years - give the current plethora of promises being made for eg offshore wind production.

 

At present I have noticed:

 

UK existing offshore wind capacity is 11-12GW. 3GW coming on stream this year. Current projects will make it 30GW by 2030. Govt has promised 50GW total by 2030 afaics. No idea what the goal is for 2050.

 

Scottish approved at national level projects will add a further 25GW in the 2030s. And the Scottish Govt has talking points about how it already meets its own needs from lo carbon sources (may be household needs, though, not including industry an transport).

 

Mons. Macaron promised 40GW by 2050 before his election. They are currently in a European Court fight with Belgium about building one across the Zeebrugge-Dover ferry route, as it was - or were when I last looked.

 

Norway is going for 30 GW by 2040.

 

Germany aims to build 30 GW of offshore wind by 2030, 40 GW by 2035 and at least 70 GW by 2045. 

 

In terms of average supply, that nameplate capacity can be multiplied by 50% for offshore wind, but then there is timeshifting and storage etc.

 

And so ad infinitum. And that's ignoring solar, such as the 3.6GW interconnector Octopus are on board with for UK-Morocco. Plus continued reduction in demand is perfectly possible given usage levels in some places.

 

From the UK point of view, If we are going to be established as a major renewable exporter, we need our position established soon enough to prevent less effective projects being developed or there will be a glut and market bloodbath. 

 

Ferdinand

 

 

 

[SteamyTea]

Two charts.

 

What actually happened in 2021

And what we should have done by now i.e. 4 times as much windpower, 4 times as much solar, 2 times hydro and 10 times storage.

 

[Ferdinand]

On 09/08/2022 at 21:12, TonyT said:

And the tenant uses a granny lead to charge the EV!

free fuel in the rent. Win win

 

I had a chat to my lettings agent who manages a couple of student houses.

 

It seems that they (excellent agent !) have something in the contract which is some sort of version of a fair usage agreement which means that if usage / bills spike too high, there is a possibility of the Ts picking up part of the bill at the end of the year. I assume that is there from previous years to encourage students not (for example) to run max heating with windows open, and similar.

 

Whether bills are inclusive / exclusive or a payment scheme managed by the agent has changed entirely from exclusive to inclusive here over the last decade.

 

So they are now:

a - Getting Smart Meters in, so students can see the amount being used in kWh and £££.

b - Seeing if we are eligible for the rebate - maybe not as it's essentially a commercial tenancy.

c - Already making the Ts aware of the issue.

d - Making sure that boilers are switched to summer mode until October or so, where that might not normally happen.

 

Fortunately houses are an EPC C.

 

No idea what the outcome will be, though.

 

F

[TonyT]

43 minutes ago, Ferdinand said:

 

I had a chat to my lettings agent who manages a couple of student houses.

 

It seems that they (excellent agent !) have something in the contract which is some sort of version of a fair usage agreement which means that if usage / bills spike too high, there is a possibility of the Ts picking up part of the bill at the end of the year. I assume that is there from previous years to encourage students not (for example) to run max heating with windows open, and similar.

 

Whether bills are inclusive / exclusive or a payment scheme managed by the agent has changed entirely from exclusive to inclusive here over the last decade.

 

So they are now:

a - Getting Smart Meters in, so students can see the amount being used in kWh and £££.

b - Seeing if we are eligible for the rebate - maybe not as it's essentially a commercial tenancy.

c - Already making the Ts aware of the issue.

d - Making sure that boilers are switched to summer mode until October or so, where that might not normally happen.

 

Fortunately houses are an EPC C.

 

No idea what the outcome will be, though.

 

Good idea, never going to work 

[Ferdinand]

17 hours ago, pocster said:

I agree with everything you say but …

 

electric consumption was projected to double in the U.K. by 2030 ( from memory )

 

gas / oil is a finite resource and therefore will always cost more to extract 

 

Environmental/ climate issues known for a long time

 

No one could predict war / Covid / brexit - but the issues were known - just largely ignored . 
 

imho it was inevitable we’d end up here - but like everyone I couldn’t predict the path and speed .

 

The first of those is some way off. Do you mean 2050?

 

Current demand is around 300 Twh. This is from the "6th Carbon Budget":

 

Quote

Across our scenarios new demands therefore come primarily from the electrification of transport, heat, and industry.

 

...

The range for demand across our scenarios is 550-680 TWh in 2050, compared to around 300 TWh in 2018. Demand in the Balanced Pathway is 610 TWh.

 

Figure M5.5 shows how each sector contributes to the increase in demand out to 2050. This shows that the majority (85%) of the increase in electricity demand is a result of the electrification of surface transport and buildings

https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Sector-summary-Electricity-generation.pdf

 

Current predictions for 2030 are around 10-10% up on today.

[Ferdinand]

1 hour ago, Ferdinand said:

 

I had a chat to my lettings agent who manages a couple of student houses.

 

It seems that they (excellent agent !) have something in the contract which is some sort of version of a fair usage agreement which means that if usage / bills spike too high, there is a possibility of the Ts picking up part of the bill at the end of the year. I assume that is there from previous years to encourage students not (for example) to run max heating with windows open, and similar.

 

Whether bills are inclusive / exclusive or a payment scheme managed by the agent has changed entirely from exclusive to inclusive here over the last decade.

 

So they are now:

a - Getting Smart Meters in, so students can see the amount being used in kWh and £££.

b - Seeing if we are eligible for the rebate - maybe not as it's essentially a commercial tenancy.

c - Already making the Ts aware of the issue.

d - Making sure that boilers are switched to summer mode until October or so, where that might not normally happen.

 

Fortunately houses are an EPC C.

 

No idea what the outcome will be, though.

 

F

Ask me next July !

[Pocster]

Seen a few people online being quoted 72p kw on a fixed 1 yr contract ! . We will I think see the £1 mark at some point soon .

[SteamyTea]

38 minutes ago, pocster said:

Seen a few people online being quoted 72p kw on a fixed 1 yr contract ! . We will I think see the £1 mark at some point soon .

Was that for commercial properties, they are uncapped.

One of my customers got quoted 10 times what he is currently paying (Build).

45p/kWh to £4.5/kWh.

Saying F Off would have been politer.

Edited August 11, 2022 by SteamyTea

[Pocster]

4 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

Was that for commercial properties, they are uncapped.

One of my customers got quoted 10 times what he is currently paying (Build).

45p/kWh to £4.5/kWh.

Saying F Off would have been politer.

No it wasn’t commercial! . I know commercial rates are high that’s why I was shocked for residential 

[Temp]

I missed this a few days ago..

 

Dry weather in Norway may mean they aren't able to export as much hydroelectricity to the UK this winter.

 

 https://www.energylivenews.com/2022/08/08/will-the-cut-in-norwegian-interconnector-flows-bring-more-energy-misery-to-uk/

[Pocster]

5 hours ago, Ferdinand said:

 

The first of those is some way off. Do you mean 2050?

 

Current demand is around 300 Twh. This is from the "6th Carbon Budget":

 

https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Sector-summary-Electricity-generation.pdf

 

Current predictions for 2030 are around 10-10% up on today.

2050 quite possibly. Not that far off I.e how many nuclear power stations and more wind / solar farms can we build between now and then . My real point is consumption is on the up considerably……

[AliG]

I am just reading the suggestion that the energy price be capped at the current price. At a cost of £29bn!

 

Whilst I totally recognise the need to help people, I think politicians are once again messing up.

 

It seems to me that politicians across most of Europe are using taxpayer money/borrowing to subsidise rising energy prices.

 

The problem with this is that producers see that demand never falls as the price rises so the price will just keep rising.

 

Basically it is an economically dangerous policy that would could just see prices spiralling out of control. 

[Temp]

4 hours ago, AliG said:

am just reading the suggestion that the energy price be capped at the current price. At a cost of £29bn!

 

Was that the Labour proposal? I heard that on the Radio yesterday and it was only a freeze until April. Then what? Apparently the cost would be more than was spent on the Covid furlough scheme.

 

 

[Roger440]

52 minutes ago, Temp said:

 

Was that the Labour proposal? I heard that on the Radio yesterday and it was only a freeze until April. Then what? Apparently the cost would be more than was spent on the Covid furlough scheme.

 

 

 

It was. Economically illiterate.

 

If they want to do something useful, first x number of Kwh at a low rate, climbing the more you use. So the biggest users subsidise the lowest. Simple. No tax payer cash involved.

 

Well, may be not simple, but best idea ive heard.

[Kelvin]

5 hours ago, AliG said:

I am just reading the suggestion that the energy price be capped at the current price. At a cost of £29bn!

 

 

Imagine what a £29 billion investment in renewables and insulation improvement could achieve in the medium to long term. 

[Radian]

6 minutes ago, Roger440 said:

 

It was. Economically illiterate.

 

If they want to do something useful, first x number of Kwh at a low rate, climbing the more you use. So the biggest users subsidise the lowest. Simple. No tax payer cash involved.

 

Well, may be not simple, but best idea ive heard.

Why not apply a square law to the kWh charged. That would give some real redistribution.

[Roger440]

11 minutes ago, Radian said:

Why not apply a square law to the kWh charged. That would give some real redistribution.

 

Lots of ideas. But no intelligent life forms to enact it.

 

Jesus, 29bn for 6 months!!!!!

[SteamyTea]

33 minutes ago, Kelvin said:

Imagine what a £29 billion investment in renewables and insulation improvement could achieve in the medium to long term. 

Shall we call it just over double that, £60bn.  Or about £1000 per UK resident.

Now that would give me £1k to improve my house, my neighbours £3k.

Taking the 6 houses where I live, that would be £15k.

Now with little money spent I have got my usage down to about 4 MWh/year, so allowing for higher occupancy, say our mean usage is 5 MWh/year, so 30 MWh/year for the 6 houses.

15,000 [£] / 30,000 [kWh] = £0.5/kWh.

 

Short term, subsiding the energy bill, is probably cheaper.

(remember I doubled the estimate)

 

Edited August 16, 2022 by SteamyTea

[Kelvin]

Sure but that wasn’t my point. Subsidising energy costs for a short time kicks the can down the road a bit and does nothing to address the problem. What happens in 6 months? I agree the very poorest in society will need help with this. 
 

If our Government (and others)  is going to spend billions then investing a proportion of it in things that might make a longer term difference would seem the smarter move. 

[SteamyTea]

23 minutes ago, Kelvin said:

If our Government (and others)  is going to spend billions then investing a proportion of it in things that might make a longer term difference would seem the smarter move. 

We are already doing that, only got to look at the fraction of electricity that come from RE and compare it to a decade ago.

Other areas, such as transport, have also made efficiency improvements.

 

I think the trouble with this crisis is that we did not react in time i.e. Februray when the signs of a Russina invation where clear.

I think we need to tough this winter out, while shifting production capacity from 'trickets' to RE equipement.

One thing that the British public will learn, is that we can do with a lot less.

 

[Kelvin]

43% of our electricity generation came from gas in July. Half of that gas is imported.  It’ll likely increase over the winter. This is partly driven by the state our nuclear power stations are in. We’ve committed to build more nuclear at enormous cost and generation is decades away. Our ability to store gas has also not been invested in so building up enough emergency storage  for the winter isn’t easy either. It’s almost impossible to get planning permission in England for wind turbine farms.   We could have had a lot more solar generation by now and what we are doing is at risk if Truss becomes PM and implements her moronic ideas.  Renewables are relatively quick to build, relatively cheap to build, and the generation costs are relatively inexpensive.

 

UK housing stock is some of the least efficient in Europe. Too cold in winter. Too hot in summer. Too expensive to run. The insulation incentives that were in place were badly thought through and poorly executed. 
 

We can all hope that the crisis will only extend to this winter. Maybe there will be a negotiated peace in Ukraine in the next 6 months. Maybe the price of energy will drop as a result. However, that seems like wishful thinking at the moment. But it does underline that our investment in renewable energy isn’t anywhere near as where it needs to be.