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No deal Brexit impact


gc100

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6 minutes ago, joe90 said:


Yes, having voted leave I am pleased a deal appears to be sorted, just waiting now for “captain hindsight” and “seaweed” to tell us it’s not good ?.

Well it will not be as good as the deal we had.

Though if we do a decent deal with Australia, we will get better bar staff and blonde surfers.

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1 hour ago, SteamyTea said:

Well it will not be as good as the deal we had.

We are yet to see if that is true, however, the public voted which way they wanted it. As I have said many times, I had no problem with the common market as was, but objected to the “United States of Europe “

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5 hours ago, joe90 said:

We are yet to see if that is true, however, the public voted which way they wanted it. As I have said many times, I had no problem with the common market as was, but objected to the “United States of Europe “

 

Having seen some of the deal detail, it does broadly meet the UK's stated 'Canada +' deal parameters and the EU has held their red lines also both sides will paint it as a win. I doubt the Brexit ERG purists will be happy but they never seem to be anyway.

 

Economically it can't ever be as good as full membership as it mostly covers traded goods (a smaller % of our exports by value, majority % of EU imports by value) but not services, of which financial services makes up the majority. Plus added cost of leaving customs union which is expected to add a few percent 'drag' on the process.

 

Financial services will be subject to a separate agreement but looks to be equivalence only (and not the hoped for passporting) which the EU can turn on and off at will. Right now it suits them to still permit UK financial institutions but over time that may change as Frankfurt / Dublin / Paris / Amsterdam build up equivalent capability.

 

I also dislike the concept of a United States of Europe, however that's not what we left (even if it was portrayed as such) and in any respect we had a veto on further integration. But that's all history now so we need the dust to settle and judge whether we're net better off or not in 10 years or so.

 

Question is how and from where the gap in GDP can be filled. It may never be and those who advocated Brexit may consider that a price worth paying which is fair enough. 

 

My guess is that will be the timeframe when a closer relationship will start to become politically palatable again.

 

I expect there will still be disruption from Jan 1st until the new customs systems bed in and traders get familiar with them plus more visible differeces like increased travel insurance premiums (especially for older travellers) due to no more EHIC or increased mobile roaming charges- that may drag on public sentiment as the expectation will be 'we have a deal'.

Edited by Bitpipe
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I was reading earlier that Gibralta might be joining the Schengen area meaning the Spanish won't need to show passports to cross the border... but us Brits will still need to.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/12/22/deal-nearly-done-gibraltar-join-schengen-area-leaving-closer/

 

Edited by Temp
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I am not shouting "victory".

 

Lets not forget, we were sold Brexit on the promise that we would have a free trade deal, easiest deal in history, can be settled in an afternoon over a cup of teat, Oven ready etc etc.  Well that turned out to be a lie, it was hard fought over a whole year.  So it is a victory for common sense and a big relief that at the last minute we pulled back from the brink and avoided no deal.  All we have got is what we were promised, so lets not over do the celebrations.

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1 hour ago, ProDave said:

at the last minute we pulled back from the brink


I don’t think so, we stood by our guns and didn’t let the EU bully us, let them think we didn’t mind having no deal (even if we did really) good negotiating skills IMO.

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https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-deal-erasmus-study-abroad-university-turing-scheme-boris-johnson-808367

 

"The move to leave the Erasmus scheme has been criticised by Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, who called the decision “cultural vandalism”.

She tweeted: “There will be lots of focus, rightly, on the economic costs of Brexit. But ending UK participation in Erasmus, an initiative that has expanded opportunities and horizons for so many young people, is cultural vandalism by the UK Government.”"

 

The government  has proposed its own scheme to replace it. Yeah sure. Like they did with EU R&D funding.

Edited by Temp
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28 minutes ago, Temp said:

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-deal-erasmus-study-abroad-university-turing-scheme-boris-johnson-808367

 

"The move to leave the Erasmus scheme has been criticised by Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, who called the decision “cultural vandalism”.

She tweeted: “There will be lots of focus, rightly, on the economic costs of Brexit. But ending UK participation in Erasmus, an initiative that has expanded opportunities and horizons for so many young people, is cultural vandalism by the UK Government.”"

 

The government  has proposed its own scheme to replace it. Yeah sure. Like they did with EU R&D funding.

Students from NI can still avail of this scheme due to an agreement with the Irish government.

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1 hour ago, joe90 said:

voted remain

Too right, I know a good deal when I see one, even if I do not personally take full advantage of it.

Just looked at BJ's speech, and seems that there is going to be a massive increase in fish landings by UK boats from just over 50% to a massive 66%, in 5 years like (I think that is what he said).

So no difference, and i the next 5 years, things will be totally different.

What a (expletive deleted)ing nonsense, the whole things.

 

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2 hours ago, Temp said:

We get back 25% of what the EU currently have over 5 years.

 

I still cannot tell whether that is 25% of EU current catches in UK waters.

 

Or 25% of all catches in UK waters.

 

But then I thought we were at about 25% already, and +25% would take us to 50%.

 

 

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