Spain/Portugal blackout

[Roger440]

6 hours ago, Beelbeebub said:

The report projects gas falling by around 60% from 

current ie 10% total annual.

 

As you say we will always need something for when wind and solar are a no go.

 

In the absence of lots more nuclear it will likely be gas.

 

But that's fine.  What we do need to do is stop gas being the price setter outside of the times when it is doing the majority.

 

Maybe if the price is set on gas (or whichever fuel) only if it exceeds a certain percentage. Essentially setting the price on the 90% (or whatever) generator not the 100%

 

So the expensive gas etc get paid, but everyone else gets a lower (but still higher than cost) price.

 

Ive said it before, and ill say it again. No one is going to break that price link. Too many people (influential) getting rich fast as a consequence. 

[SteamyTea]

8 minutes ago, Beelbeebub said:

The per house would also make peak shifting /shaving more of an individual choice rather than enforced from above

I am the expert at that, why my house only draws power half the time.

Most people can't work out E7, and truly believe that storage heaters don't work (but oddly believe that oil filled heaters are better) and that is the problem.

Best to leave power delivery and management to the people that know about it.

[Dillsue]

7 hours ago, Beelbeebub said:

The report projects gas falling by around 60% from 

current ie 10% total annual.

 

 

 

?? 60% drop from 2022 figures by 2030ish, then climbs continuously to 2050 to get to the same level of gas generation we have now. See the graph in section 4.1

 

I guess the drop is on account of additional renewables deployed up til 2030. Thereafter I guess the ever increasing gas generation is to feed demand growth after we've maxed out renewable install. If there was an electricity price drop with renewable deployment it looks to be only a few years down the road before gas generation is on the rise again and bills with it??

[Beelbeebub]

13 hours ago, Dillsue said:

?? 60% drop from 2022 figures by 2030ish, then climbs continuously to 2050 to get to the same level of gas generation we have now. See the graph in section 4.1

 

I guess the drop is on account of additional renewables deployed up til 2030. Thereafter I guess the ever increasing gas generation is to feed demand growth after we've maxed out renewable install. If there was an electricity price drop with renewable deployment it looks to be only a few years down the road before gas generation is on the rise again and bills with it??

I think the rise in gas later on is due to their model not "seeing" any more renewable generation being added in the future due to assumptions. 

 

From the notes on the graph you mention.

 

"Natural gas generation responds to this increasing low carbon generation by falling
rapidly until the late 2020s. It then stabilises as less new low carbon generation capacity
comes online based only on EEP-ready policies. By 2040 it will be around 48 TWh, 61%
lower than 2022 levels...." (my emphasis)

 

The EPP-ready bit is that they only consider policies that have been approved or funded at the current time.

 

So they aren't including any new capacity that is at too early stage of development. We don't know what the policies will be in 2040 or even the technologies available then. Maybe we'll all be whizzing about in our cold fusion powered jetpack by then.

 

It is likely (in the absence of the aforementioned cold fusion jet packs or similar) that we will need some sort of thermal power backup and that may well be gas. But hopefully in smaller amounts than predicted there.