Clean Heat Market Mechanism to incentivise heat pumps

[Roger440]

3 hours ago, SteamyTea said:

According to this

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1228145/plumbing-and-hvac-company-number-in-great-britain/

there are about 40k companies that do plumbing and HVAC.

If the demand was there, then each company could take on an extra half person, so another 20k of fitters.

If they could replace 1 gas boiler to a heat pump twice a week, then that would be 10k of extra capacity, half a million extra installs on top of what is currently being done.

If there was the political/public will to actually change, rather than the current will, with spurious arguments not to change, changing 2 million installation a year should be possible.

With about 30 million home, that would take 15 years.

 

I shall just leave this chart here, I have highlighted what it was like 15 years ago

 

 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series

 

Its just not going to happen, political will or otherwise. All those companies have already got plenty of work. You need, as pointed out to increase fitting by at least 20 times. Where are you going to "find" 20,000 fitters? Fitters that actually know what they are doing?

 

 

[JamesPa]

39 minutes ago, Roger440 said:

 

Its just not going to happen, political will or otherwise. All those companies have already got plenty of work. You need, as pointed out to increase fitting by at least 20 times. Where are you going to "find" 20,000 fitters? Fitters that actually know what they are doing?

 

 

If it doesn't happen the costs will be vast, much more than the cost of fitting heat pumps.  

 

It's time we re focussed on to 'how are we going to make it happen' rather than trotting out lame excuses to avoid the inevitable.  If we want to make it happen we surely can.  For example I'm sure that many of the people who seek refuge in this country would easily be capable of doing this work, and would be glad for the opportunity.  Many are, after all, highly intelligent and/or skilled.

 

 

[Iceverge]

55 minutes ago, Roger440 said:

 

Well, actually thats exactly what we were saying. But not to worry. 

 

If we are all agreed that it isnt remotely financially viable, then thats all good.

 

In my case to go to a HP system will require everything. So into 5 figures if im paying someone. Plus the house is a thermal catastophe. So another, bigger 5 figure sum required.

 

The reality is it will never make any sense. The oil boiler can be repaired indefinitely. Its a worcester greenstar. Nice and simple.

 

 

 

I electricity became plenty cheap, say 10p/kWh and gas doubled in price would you consider spending £1500 on an A2A unit to do the baseload of your heating? 

 

 

[Beelbeebub]

5 hours ago, Roger440 said:

The reality is it will never make any sense. The oil boiler can be repaired indefinitely. Its a worcester greenstar. Nice and simple.

But can the oil be sourced economically indefinitely?...

 

 

Likewise the Gas 

 

The UK is no longer a net exporter of gas. We are reliant on imports for 50% of our gas. Of that 50% the majority is LNG via sea.

 

And the main route for those tankers is via the red sea and Suez.

 

So we are sailing ships with the equivilent of two small tactical nuclear bombs through a 20 mile wide stretch of water with a rogue state firing anti shop missiles at passing vessels.

 

 

[SteamyTea]

5 hours ago, Roger440 said:

Where are you going to "find" 20,000 fitters? Fitters that actually know what they are doing?

You can take just about any literate person of the street and train them up in a few weeks to be useful to a more esperienced plumber.

 

There is a general problem with employers.

They often complain that graduates (at any level) don't have the necessary skills.

So they want a young person, with a decades experience, and probably qualified to Masters level, for minimum wage on a zero hours contract.

That is the biggest problem, employer expectations.

[JamesPa]

1 hour ago, Beelbeebub said:

But can the oil be sourced economically indefinitely?...

 

 

Likewise the Gas 

 

The UK is no longer a net exporter of gas. We are reliant on imports for 50% of our gas. Of that 50% the majority is LNG via sea.

 

And the main route for those tankers is via the red sea and Suez.

 

So we are sailing ships with the equivilent of two small tactical nuclear bombs through a 20 mile wide stretch of water with a rogue state firing anti shop missiles at passing vessels.

 

 

Sadly many people don't recognise the train crash heading in their direction until it's too late, and many politicians exploit this for their own ends.  Fail to plan = plan to fail.  

Edited December 21, 2023 by JamesPa

[JohnMo]

Soon with Grangemouth closing down its processing plant, most of the UK diesel, heating fuel oil and petrol, will all be processed overseas and imported as ready to use products. So much for the excuse to allow more drilling and it giving fuel security.

[ProDave]

29 minutes ago, JohnMo said:

Soon with Grangemouth closing down its processing plant, most of the UK diesel, heating fuel oil and petrol, will all be processed overseas and imported as ready to use products. So much for the excuse to allow more drilling and it giving fuel security.

I am sure I raised this before.  All we hear are politicians complaining about the 400 job losses if Grangemouth closes as a refinery.  I have not heard one raise an energy security issue with it's closure.

[JohnMo]

6 minutes ago, ProDave said:

I am sure I raised this before.  All we here are politicians complaining about the 400 job losses if Grangemouth closes as a refinery.  I have not heard one raise an energy security issue with it's closure.

Couldn't believe our local news (a few weeks ago),first article was new drilling licence here and others there, all for energy security blah, blah. Second article was Grangemouth, no mention of previous article just moved on to football. Politicians and reporters, all rubbish.

 

But at least they can all fly around the world in empty aircraft, to talk about global warming, and try to take out any mention of fossil fuel reductions.

 

Does make you wonder.

[Roger440]

7 hours ago, JamesPa said:

If it doesn't happen the costs will be vast, much more than the cost of fitting heat pumps.  

 

It's time we re focussed on to 'how are we going to make it happen' rather than trotting out lame excuses to avoid the inevitable.  If we want to make it happen we surely can.  For example I'm sure that many of the people who seek refuge in this country would easily be capable of doing this work, and would be glad for the opportunity.  Many are, after all, highly intelligent and/or skilled.

 

 

 

I presume you mean by vast costs, you mean the consequences of doing nothing?

 

Even if we fitted every house in the country by next week, it will make not one iota of difference to anything. The consequences are coming regardless of fitting heat pumps or the other token gestures.

 

This is in danger of drifting into a political arena, but i would be willing to bet a decent wedge of cash, it wont happen, even if we declare it must. 

 

There a significant pool of those people you refer to in buckingham. Trust me, none of those will be fitting any heat pumps. Ever.

 

[Roger440]

8 hours ago, Iceverge said:

 

I electricity became plenty cheap, say 10p/kWh and gas doubled in price would you consider spending £1500 on an A2A unit to do the baseload of your heating? 

 

 

Im on oil, so thats never going to happen, but lets assume it does.

 

Having just been looking at A2A for my workshop*, its not going to £1500.

 

But lets say, £2500. How is that going to combine with the heating thats there now? If they are 2 completely independt systems, which for the money we are talking about seemsd likely, how will i control it all? 

 

Im also not sure id want an air blowy thing in my living room either, but lets gloss over that too. And that my bedrooms will be cold.

 

Yes, i would consider it.

 

It is however, hypothetical, as electricity wont be allowed to be that cheap. Mainly because too much money is being made out of the current arrangements, and because, as already mentioned, the effect on the poorer amongst us of putting up gas prices. There is a significant chunck of the population who couldnt front up £1500 in one go. And of course that as electricity becomes a more scare commodity, prices will inevitably rise, not fall.

 

As ive already mentioned, i think my best plan is to sit it out until someone else pays for it. Or get my income below £31k for a year. Then i can have loads of free stuff. £45k of free stuff. (31 + 45 comforatbly exceeds my income, especially take home) As targets continue to be missed, it can only be a matter of time. Probably get a free car at some point. Its not hard to see the direction of travel. People respond to the pressure and incentives before them. Its increasingly clear that why pay, if someone else will. For clarity, i think its madness and disagree at every level with that idea, but it is what it is.

 

* Im struggling to justify even this v a direct panel heater on the wall as its only likely to have a 3 to 4 year life before i need to look at at something to heat other parts of the workshop as one entity.  Probably oil! As its still by far the cheapest option even starting from scratch. 

 

[Roger440]

3 hours ago, Beelbeebub said:

But can the oil be sourced economically indefinitely?...

 

 

Likewise the Gas 

 

The UK is no longer a net exporter of gas. We are reliant on imports for 50% of our gas. Of that 50% the majority is LNG via sea.

 

And the main route for those tankers is via the red sea and Suez.

 

So we are sailing ships with the equivilent of two small tactical nuclear bombs through a 20 mile wide stretch of water with a rogue state firing anti shop missiles at passing vessels.

 

 

 

Ill be dead long before oil/diesel ceases to be a thing.

 

Im not investing on a timeline beyond 30 years. That for goivernments, not individuals.

 

[Roger440]

3 hours ago, SteamyTea said:

You can take just about any literate person of the street and train them up in a few weeks to be useful to a more esperienced plumber.

 

There is a general problem with employers.

They often complain that graduates (at any level) don't have the necessary skills.

So they want a young person, with a decades experience, and probably qualified to Masters level, for minimum wage on a zero hours contract.

That is the biggest problem, employer expectations.

 

Ive spent 17 yearts running my own buisiness.

 

The single biggest reason im not anymore, and we closed the workshop is because its wasnt possible to find, train and retain staff.

 

Sure, some of them were technically capable, but unable to grasp the concept of employment. A few the reverse. Very few able to do both.

 

We paid pretty well, resonable hours, didnt take the piss out of people, didnt expect unpaid work, didnt impose artifical restrictions, like degrees etc.

 

Was still impossible. The reality is, the people we really needed, even if we could afford them, simply are not going to do dirty practical work. Why would they? They can earn plenty doing something easier and more comfortable. Same reason im no longer on the tools. Can i do it? Yes. But why would i, im capable of other things that are better rewarded. I could install heat pumps. Quite literally, nothing could persuade me to do that, in people houses, dealing with retail customers. 

 

I agree a lot of employers are unrealistic, and that doesnt help, but few younger people going through the system are going to do anything practical. If you do, you will be told, as indeed i was back in 86, that you are a failure. Thats a mindset we havent even started to tackle and would take a generation even if government could be persuaded.

 

Feel free to theorise on the possible, but like i said, not going to happen. 

[Iceverge]

16 minutes ago, Roger440 said:

investing on a timeline beyond 30 years. That for goivernments, not individuals.

 

Agreed too. 

 

The less money you have, the shorter your "return of investment" horizons are.  If you only have a couple of £ per month spare you simply can't afford to tie it up for years not to mind decades. 

 

Have you considered a patio heater just over the work bench in the garage. No point in heating the whole shed if you don't need to. I think @joe90 did something similar.

 

[Roger440]

2 minutes ago, Iceverge said:

 

Agreed too. 

 

The less money you have, the shorter your "return of investment" horizons are.  If you only have a couple of £ per month spare you simply can't afford to tie it up for years not to mind decades. 

 

Have you considered a patio heater just over the work bench in the garage. No point in heating the whole shed if you don't need to. I think @joe90 did something similar.

 

 

I need  a "stable" temp and humidity as all my stuff thats susceptible to corrosion will be in there. I aim to sit it at 12c except when im in it. So something like that isnt really suitable. Ive got a 3kw infrared heater i could use sitting in a box, but isnt really the right answser. i guess exc

 

Insulation is OK. 100 mmPIR on walls. But 2 windows, one single glazed. Ceiling has an air gap (sealed) and 50mm PIR with office above. And a pair of double office doors into the main unheated part of workshop. It not to bad in there thermally except the doors and one window. Bit limited on doors as i need to retain the flat floor so i can wheel stuff in and out.

 

[Beelbeebub]

9 minutes ago, Roger440 said:

 

I need  a "stable" temp and humidity as all my stuff thats susceptible to corrosion will be in there. I aim to sit it at 12c except when im in it. So something like that isnt really suitable. Ive got a 3kw infrared heater i could use sitting in a box, but isnt really the right answser. i guess exc

 

Insulation is OK. 100 mmPIR on walls. But 2 windows, one single glazed. Ceiling has an air gap (sealed) and 50mm PIR with office above. And a pair of double office doors into the main unheated part of workshop. It not to bad in there thermally except the doors and one window. Bit limited on doors as i need to retain the flat floor so i can wheel stuff in and out.

 

As I mentioned, my friend (carpenter/joiner, lots of wood and lots of steel tools he doesn't want rusting) uses a single split HP to keep his workshop at a stable temp.  

 

He's been very happy.with the environment and cost.

 

Should also mention he got the idea from his dad and brother who installed HPs to heat various workshop spaces for an agricultural engineering company. Think big barn workshops with tractors in them.  They do use several units for the big workshops.

Edited December 21, 2023 by Beelbeebub

[Roger440]

2 minutes ago, Beelbeebub said:

As I mentioned, my friend (carpenter/joiner, lots of wood and lots of steel tools he doesn't want rusting) uses a single split HP to keep his workshop at a stable temp.  

 

He's been very happy.with the environment and cost.

 

Id be very happy with one too. But the price, not so much.

 

They seem to have clamped down on self install unless its R290. Ie, you have to provide evidence who is going to do it. Getting someone in, makes it unviable financially as it more than doubles the cost. If i could do it myself as some here have done in the past i probably would.

 

As someone on here who's  name escapes me,  had some difficulty getting his R290 system re-gassed as the certified engineers all ran away. But it is the only self install option.77If i could get an R32 system to install myself, i probably would.

[SteamyTea]

27 minutes ago, Roger440 said:

 

I need  a "stable" temp and humidity as all my stuff thats susceptible to corrosion will be in there

I don't think that IR heating will help keep the humidity down, so tools will rust quicker.

 

If you can make use of ToU tariffs, then stick old storage heaters in. Can get them for nothing.

[Roger440]

1 minute ago, SteamyTea said:

I don't think that IR heating will help keep the humidity down, so tools will rust quicker.

 

If you can make use of ToU tariffs, then stick old storage heaters in. Can get them for nothing.

 

Agreed. The IR heater is no use in this scenario. 

 

No ToU tarrif here! So not an option sadly. Plus, ideally i want to be able to dial up extra heat remotely. Even though i said id never do that. Thats more tech than i want really. 

[JohnMo]

As your happy with oil heating - other makes available 

 

https://www.toolstation.com/sip-fireball-74xrdt-infrared-diesel-heater/p47425?utm_source=googleshopping&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=googleshoppingfeed&mkwid=_dm&pcrid=null&pkw=null&pmt=null&gad_source=1&gclid=Cj0KCQiA4Y-sBhC6ARIsAGXF1g5RA5zKw194gJVp01XYL2z1j0OMgqsCvvey_aE2XuApaJoETvk9YJIaAki2EALw_wcB&gclsrc=aw.ds

[Iceverge]

How about a second hand MVHR unit. Should keep a good handle on humidity even without a heating? 

 

 

[JamesPa]

1 hour ago, Roger440 said:

Im not investing on a timeline beyond 30 years. That for goivernments, not individuals 

Mostly agreed, but who pays for governments - we do. 

 

As I say the option to pay or not to pay is long since gone.  The only question left for the average person  is whether to pay in a controlled way or through chaotic catastrophe. 

 

If you want the former rather than the latter, you need to advocate and support measures to combat climate change and support politicians who do likewise.

[JohnMo]

Just scrap all the giving money away, let the market sort its self out.

 

PV has been left to find its own feet, for the last couple of years - you can now pick up 405W PV panel for £50+ VAT.

[JamesPa]

1 hour ago, Roger440 said:

Even if we fitted every house in the country by next week, it will make not one iota of difference to anything. The consequences are coming regardless of fitting heat pumps or the other token gestures

Er not quite a token gesture (led donestic lighting is the token gesture).  Heating activities are about one third of uk carbon emissions and domestic is about half of this, nearly 20 percent.

 

Giving up completely, which you appear to advocate, is somewhat defeatist don't you think?  Is that really your view, forget it all and be damned?  If so then at least please declare that upfront as its pointless discussing things which affect the future with someone who sees no hope

Edited December 21, 2023 by JamesPa

[Roger440]

1 minute ago, JamesPa said:

Mostly agreed, but who pays for governments - we do. 

 

As I say the option to pay or not to pay is long since gone.  The only question left for the average person  is whether to pay in a controlled way or through chaotic catastrophe. 

 

If you want the former rather than the latter, you need to advocate and support measures to combat climate change and support politicians who do likewise.

 

In my reply to your earlier post on this, it wont make an iota of difference what we do. 

 

My finances are limited. Ill wait for someone else to pay for me. Yes, of course, it will come from taxation, but as everyone else is on the bandwagon, im not paying tax for others to have a new system fitted and then pay again myself.

 

If others feel the need/can afford, crack on. 

 

For me it would be north of £20k even doing a lot myself. Can buy about 25000 litres of oil for that. Circa 9kWh per litres. And no hard work. Currenmtly using about 1600 litres a year for heating and hot water in the house.