Absolute Zero

[ProDave]

We know we are heading for "net zero"  but I don't think the vast majority of the public actually appreciate what that means.

 

We are being told to buy EV's, build more wind turbines and swap our boilers for heat pumps.  I suspect most people think when that's done, then job done.   WRONG.  That is just the easy low hanging fruit.

 

Have a read of this article 

Absolute Zero – UK FIRES

 

But the headline from that article has to be this chart 

 

 

If all that is implemented in that timescale that is going to cost us ALL a LOT of money, and severely going to restrict what we can do.

 

I just feel it is time this was more public and people knew what is ahead of us.

[joth]

Housing and heating comes off fairly lightly in that chart. It's the end of all flying and shipping that stands out as pure fantasy for me.

I understand the US military and not to mention wars in general create some substantial % of emissions. You may as well plan for and end to war as an end to flying.

 

Edited April 11, 2023 by joth

[SteamyTea]

May have misread the title.

But always worth listening to on a wet and windy Tuesday morning.

 

 

 

 

[SteamyTea]

44 minutes ago, ProDave said:

ALL a LOT of money

And the current increase in energy prices is less?

 

Investing in national infrastructure is not the same as one house investing in one heat pump, or one car being swapped for an EV.

The accountancy is different.

[ProDave]

18 minutes ago, joth said:

Housing and heating comes off fairly lightly in that chart. It's the end of all flying and shipping that stands out as pure fantasy for me.

And an end to most industry and mining, no new steel, just recycled, well I suppose we have to do something with those redundant ships.

 

It really is reverse the industrial revolution.

 

Oh and cars, not only will all cars after 2030 be EV's but a move to make them small lightweight shopping trolleys, so it really is an end to towing anything

 

Who is buying shares in Boeing, Airbus, Maersk etc now?

[MikeGrahamT21]

This graphic has been knocking around for a few years, theres no doubt that all needs to happen to get to absolutely zero, but I can't see a lot of it happening if i'm honest, but then thats probably why the elites have been playing around with the idea of population reduction for years.

 

Saw a funny headline this morning regarding EV's, saying that older car parks would likely collapse under the weight of EVs if they accounted for all vehicles, so they will need to be rebuilt/strengthened. I mean who actually thought lugging around several tons of battery was a good idea? The fuel cell must prevail here.

[SteamyTea]

15 minutes ago, MikeGrahamT21 said:

Saw a funny headline this morning regarding EV's, saying that older car parks would likely collapse under the weight of EVs if they accounted for all vehicles, so they will need to be rebuilt/strengthened. I mean who actually thought lugging around several tons of battery was a good idea? The fuel cell must prevail here.

Heard it on the radio yesterday.

Odd I thought, do they think that all ICE cars have a mass the same as a Fiat Uno (700kg) and all EVs have the same mass as a Ford F 150 Lightening (3000kg).

 

As for FC cars, looking up the mass of a Toyota Mirai and compare it to a Tesla Model 3.

1950 kg against 1847 kg.

2 minutes shows what nonsense is spread about.

For comparison, a Ford C-Max is 1700 before 50 kg of fuel is put in.

Edited April 11, 2023 by SteamyTea

[Post and beam]

Yep, complete Bo!!ox. Is it likely that architects designed ' just enough' strength into Multi storey car parks.

[Radian]

"2020-2029 Fridges, freezers and washing machines become smaller" 

How is that supposed to help? More trips to the supermarket and more washing loads won't save anything. Utter rubbish. Just like making kettles lower power to save energy.

[MikeGrahamT21]

5 minutes ago, Radian said:

"2020-2029 Fridges, freezers and washing machines become smaller" 

How is that supposed to help? More trips to the supermarket and more washing loads won't save anything. Utter rubbish. Just like making kettles lower power to save energy.

 

Don't forget if you buy a new Kettle it'll make its money back within a couple years (Quote: Boris) 🤣

[Iceverge]

Close all UK airports bar 3 by 2029. 

 

That's 5 and a half years from now. 

 

It took us about as long from the first sketch to actually move into our house. 

 

 

[Kelvin]

The anti EV nonsense is laughable. All cars have been getting heavier for years generally and the most popular car to buy is an SUV style which are typically heavier anyway. 

[Iceverge]

3 hours ago, Kelvin said:

The anti EV nonsense is laughable. All cars have been getting heavier for years generally and the most popular car to buy is an SUV style which are typically heavier anyway. 

 

EVs are fine . They work, not as easily as ICEed vehicles if you regularly need to charge away from home but otherwise they're fine. 

 

Most who complain have never had one. 

[ProDave]

8 minutes ago, Iceverge said:

EVs are fine . They work, not as easily as ICEed vehicles if you regularly need to charge away from home but otherwise they're fine. 

 

Most who complain have never had one. 

I don't have one because a) I can't find one that will tow nearly 2 ton of trailer 200 miles on one charge, and b) even if I could find one, I would not be able to afford it.

 

It would be good if they came clean and just told us our motoring expectations have to diminish and our motoring costs are going to drastically increase.  i.e many will be priced out of car ownership.

[Kelvin]

We are still at the early adopter stage with EVs which is mostly why they are dear. We are really only two generations in and for most of the big car companies one generation in. Even at that some of those are just converted ICE cars rather than ground up new designs. Towing heavy loads is undeniably a challenge as it is for folk doing a few hundred motorway miles every day. 

[SteamyTea]

55 minutes ago, ProDave said:

It would be good if they came clean and just told us our motoring expectations have to diminish

Having less caravans on the roads would improve my motoring experience.

I don't really see what you are getting at.

You say you cannot afford an EV, but can you afford, or at least willing to pay for, any car that costs the same as a Zoe, around £30,000.

I bought my last new car back in 1990.  Cost £11k.  The updated model is now £21k.

Edit: Just checked the price, seems it is £27k for the equivalent model, 21 was the basic 'hire car' trim.

Edited April 11, 2023 by SteamyTea

[JohnMo]

Current EVs are just a stepping stone, other technology or different batteries will come, certainly how to charge then all is not currently feasible, especially when everyone has one and all of them go on charge when people return from work, and if charging off peak, all of a sudden off peak becomes the new peak time.

 

Many say hydrogen will not happen, but there is a lot of work going on behind closed doors to make it a reality.  Big companies that used to support oil and gas, have firmly closed that door and are exclusively working on hydrogen projects.

 

Scotland is currently circa 90% renewables with way more in the pipeline with offshore wind, wave etc. Why so much renewable energy? converting it to hydrogen when there is an abundance of wind may be cheaper and more useful than battery storage?

 

Heard a rumour that the Netherlands is exploring import of hydrogen from Scotland, for its hydrogen economy.

[ProDave]

But Scotland, with it's low population density, lots of hydro and wind power can only achieve 90% renewables at the best of times.  Not much hope for the whole UK being close to 100% renewable any time soon.

 

And UNTIL we reach 100% renewable for what we use NOW (let alone increased use for charging electric cars) then you cannot dispute that plugging in an electric car to charge it, WILL increase fossil fuel generation somewhere.

 

As for that mythical thing, surplus renewable energy to make hydrogen, none yet.

 

The solution will be many things over a period of time.  But many are pretending we will solve this just with a few simple changes.  

 

My stance is EV's may well be the future, but they are not the present.

[Kelvin]

Not the present for who? We’ve done 32k in ours in 18 months. It’s mostly been painless and a far more comfortable relaxing driving experience than any car we’ve owned. We cover far more miles than most people so arguably a niche case so most folk would cope fine with an EV. 
 

Could the infrastructure cope if everyone swapped to an EV now then obviously not but that’s not what’s happening. If the infrastructure keeps up with demand then it will likely be fine. Will it be ready to meet the Government’s target?  I’d say unlikely. 

[joe90]

My son is a car salesman and he told me that within the industry there is a plethora of second hand EVs as some are going back to ICE.

[joe90]

5 hours ago, Kelvin said:

The anti EV nonsense is laughable. All cars have been getting heavier for years generally and the most popular car to buy is an SUV style which are typically heavier anyway. 

So, how heavy are EVs (generally) as batteries tend to be heavy . 🤷‍♂️ (I don’t like SUV,s) but even non SUVs are bigger  than previous models .

[ProDave]

Reading about this one thing has struck me.  The difference between housing and transport.

 

I am sitting comfortably in my well insulated low energy house, enjoying the same standard of living I had in any other house, arguably a better standard of living, but at very much reduced energy usage so much better for the planet.  so in other words moving from an older inefficient house to a new well built one, is good for the environment AND the occupier.

 

but when it comes to transport, I cannot yet see the solution that still gives me all I had before while saving the planet.  That is the gap that has to be filled, so transport can go green in the same way housing can, without reducing our expectations of what it delivers.

[Roger440]

51 minutes ago, ProDave said:

Reading about this one thing has struck me.  The difference between housing and transport.

 

I am sitting comfortably in my well insulated low energy house, enjoying the same standard of living I had in any other house, arguably a better standard of living, but at very much reduced energy usage so much better for the planet.  so in other words moving from an older inefficient house to a new well built one, is good for the environment AND the occupier.

 

but when it comes to transport, I cannot yet see the solution that still gives me all I had before while saving the planet.  That is the gap that has to be filled, so transport can go green in the same way housing can, without reducing our expectations of what it delivers.

 

I think there is zero possibility of that. Whatever comes next will be worse from a use perspective. Sadly, to compound that, governments are, effectively mandating solutions, rather than specifying desired outcomes. So we cut of multiple possible forms of development and progress. Because government have a great track record at identifying winners!

 

Restricted travel for the masses is coming.

[SteamyTea]

4 hours ago, joe90 said:

So, how heavy are EVs (generally) as batteries tend to be heavy

Answered that above.

10 hours ago, SteamyTea said:

As for FC cars, looking up the mass of a Toyota Mirai and compare it to a Tesla Model 3.

1950 kg against 1847 kg.

2 minutes shows what nonsense is spread about.

For comparison, a Ford C-Max is 1700 before 50 kg of fuel is put in.

 

4 hours ago, ProDave said:

But Scotland, with it's low population density, lots of hydro and wind power can only achieve 90% renewables at the best of times.  Not much hope for the whole UK being close to 100% renewable any time soon.

How long did it take to get the UK, as a whole, electrified and on the NG grid?

It did not happen in a decade.

Some numbers.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_the_United_Kingdom

 

4 hours ago, ProDave said:

I am sitting comfortably in my well insulated low energy house, enjoying the same standard of living I had in any other house, arguably a better standard of living, but at very much reduced energy usage so much better for the planet.  so in other words moving from an older inefficient house to a new well built one, is good for the environment AND the occupier.

Is your current car as old as your old house?

 

My old 2 bed house in Hertfordshire (1910 vintage), which was a similar size to my current place (had a much larger garden) used about 20,000 kWh of gas a year.

When I moved here (198 vintage), my first year's usage was 11,000 kWh/year.  Half what I was using up country.

A very few minor tweaks to the fabric and much more analysis has got me down to 3,000 kWh/year.

 

I also had a small Vauxhall Corsa, 1.2 automatic (1997) that did under 30 MPG running around and about 40 MPG on the journeys down here.  My current 2007, much larger and heaver, but more comfortable and much nicer to drive, Ford C-Max does 55 MPG running around and 65 MPG on my trips up country.

So vehicle technology has moved on, but not as fast has houses have in recent years.

 

As for the NG not being able to cope with EVs.  I looked at this a while back 2018, which is now five years ago.

 

HOW MANY ELECTRIC CARS CAN WE CHARGE UP
TODAY?
Is there enough energy whizzing down the wires.
I have heard people talk about the infrastructure needed to run electric vehicles, it usually
centres around fast charging and the lack of places that they exist.
This article will delve a little into this complicated topic and shed some light onto the
problems.
As in my other pieces on electric vehicles, I use a cartoon car that does 1 2,000 miles a year
and uses, after losses, 220 Wh/mile. Now I know that some people will claim that this is
unrealistic as a Tesla S uses around 350 Wh/mile. But the thing is, most of us that may
change to an electric vehicle in the next decade, will not be driving a large, fast luxury car,
we will be driving a small Renault or Nissan, or maybe even a Geely.
Anyway, you are welcome to debunk my assumptions, as long as you show me your
working.
So my cartoon car uses, on average, 7 kWh a day of electricity. This is not a great deal in
the scheme of things when you compare it to our national usage of 808,704,000 kWh/day.
The problem is that we cannot deliver all that energy in one go for a number of reasons.
If everyone was to get home at 5 PM, plug in their EVs and ick the switch, most of the
country would be plunged into darkness. Well it might not really.
What happens at the moment is there is a bunch of clever people who control our
electricity generation and distribution, within very tight limits. This is the job of the
National Grid. It does it extremely well and, in my opinion, very cheaply.
What basically happens is that the National Grid knows, from historic records, what the
most likely demand is going to be, they then schedule a combination of different power
stations to start and stop delivering power. So when we are all asleep, there is little power
being generated, when we get up, at around 7 AM, they switch on more power stations to
meet the demand. At 5 PM, which is historically the time time of largest demand, they have
everything going, plus a few ready to go in case of problems like breakdowns. Then at
about 9 PM, they start winding down generation, as we all start going to bed. During the
night, there are only a few nuclear, gas plants and wind turbines going.
So if we did all get home at 5 PM and expect out cars to be charged, it would happen. The
cost would be high though as we would need to put more generation capacity to work,
plus some new ones, just to charge our cars up.
The thing is, we don’t, at the moment, all have EVs. Very few of us do. So rather than work
on what can be done today, I decided to look at what could have be done, without
changing the amount of electrical generation we already have.
To do this I simply looked at the maximum demand on any day. Knowing this is an
achievable amount, as we have already done it, I then looked at how much spare capacity
there was the rest of the day. After analysing every hour of generation from the beginning
of 201 2 to the end of 201 8, establishing the maximum demands, I then took away the
maximum demand of the remaining hours of the day. This gave me a conservative
estimate of what can be reliably and relatively cheaply delivered.
Then I had to look at the practicalities of charging EVs.
Most of us don’t drive very much. Our cars are parked up, usually by our houses for most
of the time. I know there are some people that drive tens of thousands of mile a year, I
used to be one. But this is not the market for EVs, they will buy combustion engined
vehicles for the foreseeable future.
Accepting that our cars have plenty of time to be charged up, usually over night, I
calculated that you need 3 hours to charge the cartoon car with the 7 kWh that is needed
a day. This can be done from a normal 1 3 Amp, 230V electrical outlet (they can only deliver
a constant 1 0 amps). Because of this, no new infrastructure is needed for most people.
Now I know that if you live in a flat, in the centre of a large city, you cannot park your car
next to the top floor window. But you probably don’t have a car if you live in a city centre. I
cannot account for all vehicle owners. Most of use can park pretty close to an electrical
outlet, and anyway, as you shall see later, we cannot run every vehicle on electricity.
Now, if you do accept that most people could charge a car up at night, we can look at
doing that. Luckily we already have some good information about electrical energy usage
at night. We call this Economy 7, and it is what heats water and homes for about 7% of the
UK's population. 7% is about 2,000,000 homes.
What happens with E7 is that at midnight, every day, a radio signal is sent out that flicks a
switch in the electrical meter to tell it to charge less, around 9p/kWh. Then at 7 AM,
another signal is sent out to reset the meter to day rate and the charge goes up to around
20p/kWh. Normal electricity is about 1 6p/kWh. The idea is that when there is spare
capacity at night, it is better to sell it on cheap than turn the power station off, and then
on again in the morning. If you are canny like me, you can get your usage to 90% on the
night rate, at 9p/kWh, and only a tiny bit at the high day rate.
This is great for charging up an EV, except if too many people tried to charge up cars,
water and their homes, there may not be enough generation. This would mean that more
needs to be brought on line. This costs more and the price advantage would vanish.
But luckily, most homes only need about 3 to 4 hours of E7 period, and most usage
happens in the first hours after midnight, not the last. This means that car charging could
be delayed till the last 3 or 4 hours. All that is needed is a secondary timer switch on the
extension lead, or if we want to get clever, a time delay of 3 hours after the midnight radio
signal.
This gives us a window of around 4 hours to charge up our electric cars at home, plenty of
time to pump in the average 7 kWh needed. I have decided to call this period, within the E7
timings, E4.
One other thing I did was to make sure that there was no more than one day a year that
was unable to supply enough power. This has made for an interesting quirk. As our
demand for electricity has declined in the last few year, mainly because of energy
efficiency measures and warmer weather, even allowing for the unseasonally cold weather
in 201 7, my methodology shows a decline in spare capacity. This is really a quirk in analysis
and not a fundamental problem in electricity supply. It would be fairly easy for the UK to
add extra supply from the existing capacity by just running some gas powered power plants
for longer or reconnecting windturbines that have been disconnected for balancing
reasons. Explaining balancing would take a much longer article than this, but just
remember too much generation is a problem, it pushes the voltage and frequency up,
something we don’t want to do.
So how many cars could we have connected, on average, to our existing electrical system
over the last seven years.
There are three answers to this, the first is the minimum, using the E4 time window and
comes out at 3.1 6 million cars.
The second figure is for the full E7 time window and is 5.32 million cars.
Finally, if we can charge all day, anytime we like, then we can connect up 9.29 million cars.
As we have about 200,000 EVs registered in the UK, hopefully this article shows that for
the next few years we do not have a problem charging them, and we can, if we wish,
charge them up at 0.45p/mile.
Worth considering and remembering that if someone says we do not have the capacity to
charge up electric cars, they are talking bollocks.
 

[Roger440]

Thats great. Apart from the fact your next PM is going to phase out gas powered electricity generation (except for 0.7% back up) by 2030. So generation will be significantly down for significant periods from your calculations. 

 

I'll be sticking to my fossil fuel powered car. I dont need to be part of what is probably going to be the single biggest government cock up in recent history.

 

My diesel genset is at the ready.