I could have told you this would happen some day....

[Radian]

11 minutes ago, joth said:

Look closely at the second word in that sentence. This sounds more like a headline than actual news. 

Also look closely at the source. Shouty MAGA conservatives.

[Iceverge]

The nation grid seem to think the UK will be ok. Similar point to what @George

made.

 

I hadn't considered that refining fossil fuels uses a non inconsequential amount of electricity that would be liberated too.

 

[nod]

4 hours ago, Kelvin said:

 

You assume petrol won’t go up. The recently volatility has shown that’s not likely. Moreover oil is run by a cartel of a small number of countries. 

I was referring to when we were pushed towards diesel It was quite a bit cheaper than petrol 

Once we all switched Diesel became more expensive than petrol 

 

[SteamyTea]

3 minutes ago, nod said:

was referring to when we were pushed towards diesel It was quite a bit cheaper than petrol 

Once we all switched Diesel became more expensive than petrol

I have had diesels since the mid 1980s. Been 30 years since it was cheaper than gasoline.

It was to do with the tax banding more than anything else.

Still cheap at 18p/kWh.

[Kelvin]

7 minutes ago, nod said:

I was referring to when we were pushed towards diesel It was quite a bit cheaper than petrol 

Once we all switched Diesel became more expensive than petrol 

 

Sure but it wasn’t a conspiracy 

[nod]

4 minutes ago, Kelvin said:

Sure but it wasn’t a conspiracy 

I didn’t think anyone thought it was 

Simple economics 

 

 

[Kelvin]

1 minute ago, nod said:

I didn’t think anyone thought it was 

Simple economics 

 

 

so what is it that you can’t make up then? 
 

EVs are also going to start paying vehicle excise duty which is fair enough. 
 

The push to EVs is about reducing our use of FF. This has been incentivised to encourage the shift. But ultimately the shift isn’t about it being cheaper. 

[Mr Blobby]

4 hours ago, George said:

I'm not too worried.  On the short term, electricity consumption has been falling in recent years so there's headroom in the system before even talking about load shifting.

 

Then on a longer term over the last few decades we've managed to massively increase electricity generation, I see no reason we can't continue to do so.

 

... and of course EVs are nearly always charged overnight on cheap rate tariffs, when there is too much generation and not enough demand. 

EVs overloading the grid is not a real thing, its just invented by those who don't llike progress.

 

[oldkettle]

@Carrerahill @ProDave

 

It was @epsilonGreedy who warned of these problems

 

https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/GB?lang=en

 

Select the 30-day period and enjoy the veiw of prices. 

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/dec/11/uk-power-prices-hit-record-high-amid-cold-snap-and-lack-of-wind-power

 

The wind doesn't blow all the time and the Sun doesn't shine - impossible to predict. If only we could build 50 times the existing renewable capacity...

 

For those who still believe we should build as much RE as possible ASAP - "One day I'm going to live in theory because in theory everything goes perfectly" 

 

For everyone else: HSBC announced that they are not going to finance any new FF projects. There will be more of those - I did warn about this before. Greens are Putin's best friends. 

 

Edited December 15, 2022 by oldkettle
typo

[SteamyTea]

28 minutes ago, oldkettle said:

If only we could build 50 times the existing renewable capacity...

You really don't understand how the energy market works do you.

[George]

 

49 minutes ago, oldkettle said:

The wind doesn't blow all the time and the Sun doesn't shine - impossible to predict.

That the wind doesn't always blow and sun doesn't always shine isn't a surprise to anyone - it's always been part of the calculation. You can't predict exactly when (except for night time), but you do know it will happen.

Edited December 15, 2022 by George

[oldkettle]

14 minutes ago, George said:

 

That the wind doesn't always blow and sun doesn't always shine isn't a surprise to anyone - it's always been part of the calculation. You can't predict exactly when (except for night time), but you do know it will happen.

Sarcasm not detected? 🙂

[oldkettle]

34 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

You really don't understand how the energy market works do you.

 

Of course! Only you do! 

Good luck living in theory. 

[SteamyTea]

11 minutes ago, oldkettle said:

Good luck living in theory

Can you show me the times when there was no RE generation at all.

Then it is just a matter of scaling.

 

You need to back up assertions with evidence, not half backed opinion.

[Kelvin]

Your ‘Greens are Putins best friend’ comment is a somewhat daft argument against renewables. You can easily make the same point by saying an over reliance on FF plays to Putin. FF aren’t ubiquitous and are controlled by a small number of countries. This gives them significant leverage and control over everyone else.
 

The situation we are currently in was probably always going to happen at some point but the war has accelerated it. 

[ProDave]

2 hours ago, George said:

 

That the wind doesn't always blow and sun doesn't always shine isn't a surprise to anyone - it's always been part of the calculation. You can't predict exactly when (except for night time), but you do know it will happen.

Which is why we should be investing in tidal power, that is absolutely predictable (all but minor differences due to air pressure)

[SteamyTea]

1 hour ago, ProDave said:

Which is why we should be investing in tidal power, that is absolutely predictable (all but minor differences due to air pressure)

There is quite a lot going on at the moment, mainly tidal flow as it is cheaper.

Tidal lagoon is probably the next best, but still a huge investment, and if you thought the environmental legislation was hard on self builders, just imaging what blocking the sea is going to do.

 

Quite simply, today, we have two very viable, and cheap to deploy technologies that are well understood.  We just need to get on with installing them.

 

As I was walking back from Mousehole towards Penance, I could see the small wind turbine at the college site.  About a half a mile to the left if it is a radio/microwave mast.  Twice the height, higher up, and much more visible.  For a relatively small cost, the college turbine (think it is 100 kW) could be changed to a 1 MW one, it would still not be as prominent as the microwave tower.

Planning will never let it happen.

[ProDave]

14 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

As I was walking back from Mousehole towards Penance, I could see the small wind turbine at the college site.  About a half a mile to the left if it is a radio/microwave mast.  Twice the height, higher up, and much more visible.  For a relatively small cost, the college turbine (think it is 100 kW) could be changed to a 1 MW one, it would still not be as prominent as the microwave tower.

Planning will never let it happen.

And there in a nutshell is half the problem.  One lot says "you must do this" and the other lot says "oh no you can't"

[Dillsue]

1 hour ago, SteamyTea said:

Quite simply, today, we have two very viable, and cheap to deploy technologies that are well understood.  We just need to get on with installing them.

https://www.orbitalmarine.com/ Up and running

https://www.morlaisenergy.com/ Work in progress

https://simecatlantis.com/tidal-stream/meygen/ Up and running

 

I know about these but Im sure theres others around

[SteamyTea]

1 hour ago, ProDave said:

And there in a nutshell is half the problem.  One lot says "you must do this" and the other lot says "oh no you can't"

Have you been following COP15

[oldkettle]

9 hours ago, Kelvin said:

Your ‘Greens are Putins best friend’ comment is a somewhat daft argument against renewables. You can easily make the same point by saying an over reliance on FF plays to Putin. 

 

Daft. Right. 

You can't make the same point - it is not supported by the facts. Europe has been building RE like crazy and trying specifically to lower its reliance on FF - and ended up in shit. Same for California BTW. Can you deduce anything from this? Would such a deduction really support your point? Or is it like Socialism - "it was never actually tried properly"? 

 

9 hours ago, Kelvin said:

FF aren’t ubiquitous and are controlled by a small number of countries. This gives them significant leverage and control over everyone else.

 

Close - but no cigar. 

1. If you don't produce anything by yourself and rely mainly on shady regimes then yes, sooner or later you will be in trouble (1970s)

2. If a reasonable amount of what you need is produced by normal countries the chances of the squeeze fall dramatically: see as an example the price of oil this year which didn't go anywhere near the levels feared. Why? Many reasons, but the ability of the US to supply (thanks to Trump and Texas first of all and despite Biden's best efforts) is one of them. POTUS asking Saudis to increase production instead of helping to ramp up his own - the definition of stupidity. "We will be very green, we will cut our production, we will force our banks to stop financing FF - but can you, appalling prince, just pump more so that our prices aren't too high?" Do you not find this disgusting? 

 

So if you really want to shoot yourself in the foot - go ahead and support further reductions in financing for the new FF "to lower the dependency". Please don't be surprised 5-10 years down the line. Again, you have been warned. 

[oldkettle]

9 hours ago, SteamyTea said:

Can you show me the times when there was no RE generation at all.

Then it is just a matter of scaling.

 

You need to back up assertions with evidence, not half backed opinion.

There is a website for clowns like me which is hidden from the smartest people like you 

https://gridwatch.co.uk/WIND

 

Now that you finally have this link, would you be so kind to locate the numbers called "minimum" under each graph? This month? This year? Last year? Can you possibly divide the max by the min and share your findings? Or is it too much to ask? As a hint - the min (last year) was 0.035GW. Scale this all you like, but can I ask you to pay for it yourself please? I will happily take my FF for now. 

 

May be you don't believe that the market price rise (albeit temporary) shows you something useful.

"German day-ahead power prices rose 33% to €434 (£373) a megawatt-hour, the highest since 13 September, while the French contract rose 40% to €465 a megawatt-hour, Bloomberg reported." 

 

Theory, theory, theory. 

[SteamyTea]

34 minutes ago, oldkettle said:

There is a website for clowns like me which is hidden from the smartest people like you 

https://gridwatch.co.uk/WIND

Been using it for years, well actually use the main site where the proper data is.

 

So to save myself time, and as I am not your secretary, if you search on here you will see a fair few charts I have done that analyses the data.

This is why I know what I am talking about, I have been doing this kind of research for nearly two decades.

 

Now if you want to learn about what you are doing, listen to this weeks Monkey Cage.

 

No need for me to say more.

Edited December 15, 2022 by SteamyTea

[MikeSharp01]

On 02/12/2022 at 16:18, SteamyTea said:

Still cheap at 18p/kWh.

Yes and curiously that includes the tax take to HMG so once we all go EV that tax take will need to transfer to EV recharging and as the electricity base price is now almost the same as for diesel ,accounting for the relative efficiencies - but not the value of longer distances on one refill, the cost to charge your EV will need to include the tax and all of a sudden it will be more expensive than diesel. Everything is connected to everything else - thank the early adopters who will have had cheaper motoring - but not for long.

[oldkettle]

13 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

I know what I am talking about, I have been doing this kind of research for nearly two decades.

 

"Who do you believe, me or your lying eyes?" 🤣

Theory, theory, theory. 

And at our expense I must stress.