I could have told you this would happen some day....

[ProDave]

Switzerland may have to ban the use of EV's this winter as there is not enough electricity to charge them.

 

https://hotair.com/jazz-shaw/2022/12/01/swiss-look-to-ban-use-of-electric-cars-over-the-winter-to-save-energy-n514785

 

I have speculated before, not much point in mass adoption of EV's until there is sufficient renewable power to charge them and the grid is capable of supporting the massive extra load that will be needed.

[Kelvin]

Switzerland has a potential fundamental electricity supply problem this winter because it relies on France to plug the gap and France has challenges with its nuclear fleet. In normal times i.e. not at war, they would go to its neighbours but they also have problems. The UK has talked about rolling blackouts as a consequence of similar problems. Therefore, it has little to do with EVs are bad and I told you so and everything to do with the current energy crisis. Now if you predicted we’d be in this energy crisis a few years ago then you are a sage. 

[markc]

They just need a self charging hybrid! …. Friend of mine has ordered one thinking she never has to pay for fuel again 🙈

[nod]

You couldn’t make it up 

Get us all on to E vehicles 

Then ten years from now it will cost us more than running a petrol vehicle 

Pretty much like what happened with the push towards diesel vehicles 

[Ralph]

I'm currently working with large automotive manufactures in north america. They are all betting heavily on EV being pretty much the only game in town. 

 

When I chat with these guys privately they advise me to make sure I have a none EV vehicle in the garage, being Americans it's normally a pickup. This is not because the don't believe in EVs or don't like them. They don't believe the infrastructure is ready to cope with them, particularly in the rural areas of the US. 

 

There has been such an under investment in infrastructure here and in the US that I don't think we are going to meet our targets for EV use. 

The national grid were considering triggering their emergency plans to cut usage and it's not even that cold yet.

 

 

[Kelvin]

26 minutes ago, nod said:

You couldn’t make it up 

Get us all on to E vehicles 

Then ten years from now it will cost us more than running a petrol vehicle 

Pretty much like what happened with the push towards diesel vehicles 

 

You assume petrol won’t go up. The recently volatility has shown that’s not likely. Moreover oil is run by a cartel of a small number of countries. 

[ProDave]

39 minutes ago, Ralph said:

The national grid were considering triggering their emergency plans to cut usage and it's not even that cold yet.

That's because the wind is not blowing and we don't have enough storage.  I could have told you that as well.

 

And as for our energy crisis in general, there was a member on here predicting this 2 or 3 years ago, mainly about our ageing nuclear stations mostly just about at end of life some have been extended just a little, but that is a lot of generation about to be lost and the replacements are only just being ordered.

 

Wind farms are great and clean, but when there is no wind you need a backup.  It's about time our planning actually said we will retain a certain amount of fossil fuel capacity to be used in such circumstances.  It's a good job there were still a couple of coal fired stations that had not been torn down or we would have been in trouble this winter.

[nod]

58 minutes ago, markc said:

They just need a self charging hybrid! …. Friend of mine has ordered one thinking she never has to pay for fuel again 🙈

I totally don’t get it 

I’ve a friend who has a self charger hybrid 

Charges as he’s  braking 

Never plugs it in 

 

 

[Carrerahill]

1 hour ago, ProDave said:

Switzerland may have to ban the use of EV's this winter as there is not enough electricity to charge them.

 

https://hotair.com/jazz-shaw/2022/12/01/swiss-look-to-ban-use-of-electric-cars-over-the-winter-to-save-energy-n514785

 

I have speculated before, not much point in mass adoption of EV's until there is sufficient renewable power to charge them and the grid is capable of supporting the massive extra load that will be needed.

I agree with you 100% - I have alluded to this issue before only for people to try and shoot me down with random figures and stats plucked from random sources. 

 

People don't allow for the big picture.

 

This week I put in an application to a DNO for a 100 bed carehome, fully electric: heating, laundy and kitchen - had to put in for a HV point of connection and a 500kVA supply. For what it is, that is ridiculous, the last gas home we did was on a 250kVA supply but we put in a 80kVA CHP so the load would probably never reach that - so as everything else goes electric and it will get worse as of next year, EV's are going to be much lower on the pecking order, which is also why they brought out the charge control times mandate!

 

Too much electricity too soon. In the meantime we abandon reasonable energy sources like gas. The time will come, but it is not now. 30 years of infrastructure upgrades and we will be ready, but be prepared to pay even more for electricity. 

 

Also, the energy prices being so high, believe what you want, but its to curb use. 

 

DNO's are now reporting that their HV networks are stretched, that was only ever heard of in parts of London previously. 

 

 

Edited December 2, 2022 by Carrerahill

[George]

I'm not too worried.  On the short term, electricity consumption has been falling in recent years so there's headroom in the system before even talking about load shifting.

 

Then on a longer term over the last few decades we've managed to massively increase electricity generation, I see no reason we can't continue to do so.

[SteamyTea]

25 minutes ago, ProDave said:

I could have told you that as well.

I can tell you that wind and solar are currently producing about 20% of the UKs power.

Almost twice what nuclear is.

 

We are currently consuming about GW of power, twice what we do in a hot summer.

Oddly though, we do not dismantle the 'extra' 20 GW of capacity in the spring and rebuild it in the autumn.

We also have at least another 30 GW of capacity not currently being used.

 

There is a huge difference between total capacity and management of that capacity.

We could easily put (capacity wise) another 7 million EVs on out roads.

[Carrerahill]

6 minutes ago, George said:

I'm not too worried.  On the short term, electricity consumption has been falling in recent years so there's headroom in the system before even talking about load shifting.

 

Then on a longer term over the last few decades we've managed to massively increase electricity generation, I see no reason we can't continue to do so.

What is this based on? What data?

 

The longer term takes decades and £££ of investment. 

[Carrerahill]

Also, do not confuse generation capacity with network capacity.

[Carrerahill]

32 minutes ago, ProDave said:

 

 

...there was a member on here predicting this 2 or 3 years ago, mainly about our ageing nuclear stations mostly just about at end of life some have been extended just a little, but that is a lot of generation about to be lost and the replacements are only just being ordered.

 

Almost certain this was me. 

[George]

25 minutes ago, Carrerahill said:

What is this based on? What data?

 

The longer term takes decades and £££ of investment. 

 

Historical electricity use https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/historical-electricity-data

 

Peaked in 2005 at 362GWh. 2021 use was 255GWh. Much of this reduction I assume is from energy efficiency and less industry.

 

Same data set, we've gone 270GWh in 1980, 302GWh in 1990, 342 GWh in 2000 and 347GWh in 2010. 

 

Local grid capacity is a factor but our grid is constantly being repaired and upgraded and we'll just have to address these capacity issues as EVs and heat pumps become more prevalent. 

What is also really interesting on that chart is column AH where the impact of renewables is shooting up the 'implied efficiency'. 

 

 

Edit - change the 'G's to 'T's. 362 000 GWh = 362 TWh

Edited December 2, 2022 by George

[Carrerahill]

Installed capacity (2020) is 75.8GW - that will include PV, wind etc. and plants which do not normally run and things like pumped hyrdo etc. We are pulling about 40.2GW as of 12:45 - OK great, heaps spare. However, when you go and ask for a connection and they tell you the local HV network is maxed out and you shall need to pay and wait for upstream network reinforcements, does it still comfort you knowing there is about 30GW spare capacity (it will be lower as said, includes sources that will not be available)?

[Onoff]

[Kelvin]

1 minute ago, Carrerahill said:

Almost certain this was me. 

Yes the UK energy strategy is questionable especially around nuclear. That’s there for all to see. That’s not the same as predicting the worst energy crisis in a generation in the space of 6 months which is the root cause of our current crisis and the reason for the various emergency plans. If nothing else it highlights the need to reduce our dependence upon energy supplies from uncertain sources. 
 

 

[George]

4 minutes ago, Carrerahill said:

Installed capacity (2020) is 75.8GW - that will include PV, wind etc. and plants which do not normally run and things like pumped hyrdo etc. We are pulling about 40.2GW as of 12:45 - OK great, heaps spare. However, when you go and ask for a connection and they tell you the local HV network is maxed out and you shall need to pay and wait for upstream network reinforcements, does it still comfort you knowing there is about 30GW spare capacity (it will be lower as said, includes sources that will not be available)?

Yes I was looking at the energy use rather than power capacity since as you say it is not very relevant, especially with low capacity renewables skewing the number significantly. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Carrerahill]

12 minutes ago, George said:

 

Historical electricity use https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/historical-electricity-data

 

Peaked in 2005 at 362GWh. 2021 use was 255GWh. Much of this reduction I assume is from energy efficiency and less industry.

 

Same data set, we've gone 270GWh in 1980, 302GWh in 1990, 342 GWh in 2000 and 347GWh in 2010. 

 

Local grid capacity is a factor but our grid is constantly being repaired and upgraded and we'll just have to address these capacity issues as EVs and heat pumps become more prevalent. 

What is also really interesting on that chart is column AH where the impact of renewables is shooting up the 'implied efficiency'. 

Check your figures! Hunterston B produced about 6000 GWh annually!

 

2021 isn't a realistic year to use. We need to see what 2023-2024 is, 2021 was depressed and will remain depressed due to a lot of Covid related shutdowns and low occupancy levels in buildings. 

 

Anyway, the UK uses about 250TWh annually!

 

 

 

 

Edited December 2, 2022 by Carrerahill

[Kelvin]

Yes it’s tWh. The point still stands that UK energy consumption has steadily fallen over the last 20 years. 

[George]

Oh yes, add another 3 zeros. Doesn't really change my fundamental reasoning. Just change the 'G's to 'T's.

 

Why so very pessimistic?

 

Just on the vehicle side, there are 300 billion vehicle miles. If an EV can do, say, 3 miles to the kWh, then that means we'd need 100 billion kWh extra, or an additional 100 TWh needed to be produced. Well, that's how much we've reduced consumption from 2005 to 2021. 

 

As you say 2021 probably isn't the best year. But 2019 was 269 TWh. A reduction of nearly 100 TWhs.

 

It's not as though we're aiming to switch to electric overnight. We've got time to do the upgrades. 

 

So like I say, I'm not too worried. (Think I've justified why)

Edited December 2, 2022 by George

[Carrerahill]

11 minutes ago, George said:

Why so very pessimistic?

The weekly struggle to find capacity for developments, the inability to get LV connections, the requirement for a substation in practically every development now, even a small block of flats, developments that have been shelved due to the LA planning rules stating, for example, min. 20% of car parking spaces must have EVC, apply to DNO, sorry, no capacity for 5 years in this area and £300,000 please. DNO's telling us HV ring mains are maxed out because so and so down the road just put another MW tranny on it... 

 

Local residential infrastructure was sized on an ADMD of 1.5-2.5kVA for gas heated homes, start adding EVC to each home... 

 

The situation is not good. 

[joth]

2 hours ago, ProDave said:

Switzerland may have to ban the use of EV's this winter as there is not enough electricity to charge them.

Look closely at the second word in that sentence. This sounds more like a headline than actual news. 

[Kelvin]

18 minutes ago, Carrerahill said:

The weekly struggle to find capacity for developments, the inability to get LV connections, the requirement for a substation in practically every development now, even a small block of flats, developments that have been shelved due to the LA planning rules stating, for example, min. 20% of car parking spaces must have EVC, apply to DNO, sorry, no capacity for 5 years in this area and £300,000 please. DNO's telling us HV ring mains are maxed out because so and so down the road just put another MW tranny on it... 

 

Local residential infrastructure was sized on an ADMD of 1.5-2.5kVA for gas heated homes, start adding EVC to each home... 

 

The situation is not good. 

This is a different problem. Clearly you end up with the same outcome but it’s still a different problem.