ASHP vs LPG - Round 2

[PeterW]

7 hours ago, CotswoldDoItUpper said:

Cost to install LPG boiler is significantly less then an ASHP, fuel costs +-10%, no idea about servicing an ASHP but our boiler is £100/yr.

..?? How ..? ASHP can be diy install, boiler can’t be.  ASHP service ..?? Blow the condenser through with an air line and check the gas pressure every 3 years - pretty easy for any refrigeration engineer. 

[JohnMo]

Agree let the market set the price, instead of incentives.  Government funding leads to people people paying way too much for heat pumps etc, the only people winning are companies that take advantage of the schemes.

 

The tax payer gets screwed every time.

 

 

[SBMS]

I think the problem is that most people buy based on economic factors. The fact remains that an air source heat pump (at least a good one), buffer, and cylinder costs a lot more than a cheap combi. So economically there is no incentive for the average purchaser. It’s a different game when we are talking on his forum, as self builders, that generally are not as economically constrained and want the ‘best’ not necessarily the cheapest. One could argue the scheme shouldn’t benefit self builders who could afford an ASHP and probably don’t need the grant to make their decision. But I suspect that of the 450million being provided in grants, the number provided to self builders is vanishingly small. 
 

My parents for example, living in a well insulated new build with a combi boiler have zero incentive to swap to ASHP or renewable heating - without a grant.  In actual fact the problem is that the market has set the price - and hydrocarbon based heating is way cheaper. Market forces often encourage the opposite behaviour that we might want. I can say this as someone who is absolutely being driven by this force! Do I go for the, ostensibly ‘cheaper’ solution - and stick a gas system in or do the ‘right’ thing and choose greener heating. Well the decision becomes much easier knowing that the capital outlay is nearly balanced between both with a £5k voucher. Were it not for increasing electricity costs it would be a no brainier for me at this point to go ASHP. 

 

Like all things self build it’s probably not as massive a decision as I think it is, but I find myself agonising over these elements of my build!

[SBMS]

21 minutes ago, JohnMo said:

Agree let the market set the price, instead of incentives.  Government funding leads to people people paying way too much for heat pumps etc, the only people winning are companies that take advantage of the schemes.

 

The tax payer gets screwed every time.

 

 

Agreed that there are bad apples. Wait for big players like octopus to do ASHP installs (they have invested massively in training thousands of engineers in readiness) and are gearing up this year for mass market installs at close the the price of a gas boiler. Now that’s a market force that will really correct the behaviour of SOME installers over charging. 

[JohnMo]

6 minutes ago, SBMS said:

The fact remains that an air source heat pump (at least a good one), buffer, and cylinder costs a lot more than a cheap combi. 

There is nothing difficult or complicated with heat pump technology, it been in air conditioning and fridges for decades.  They may cost more than a cheap combi, but they shouldn't cost any more than a a half decent system boiler and cylinder.  That's the issue, an open market would/should sort.

[SBMS]

25 minutes ago, JohnMo said:

There is nothing difficult or complicated with heat pump technology, it been in air conditioning and fridges for decades.  They may cost more than a cheap combi, but they shouldn't cost any more than a a half decent system boiler and cylinder.  That's the issue, an open market would/should sort.

Agreed, I guess it’s like all things - the greater the demand, the cheaper the supply. And they are still a minority technology that isn’t deployed at the same scale as traditional boilers. So I guess one way to shortcut mass market deployment is to subsidise. The same cycle is happening with electric cars - more expensive technology is being subsidised by the government with a target ban date of the old technology (ICE vehicles). In the EV market it’s pushing mainstream adoption of electric vehicles - which pushes private companies to innovate and scale up and bring the cost down. Same thing will no doubt happen with ASHP but someone (government) needs to nudge behaviour to create the demand. 

[epsilonGreedy]

3 hours ago, PeterW said:

..?? How ..?

 

 

I don't know but beyond the cult-like belief system of this forum it is an incontrovertible truth that an ASHP setup costs way more than a gas boiler equivalent. The market might normalise one day because as you indicate the fundamentals should not lead to such a price discrepancy.

 

Your were in IT and so you should understand that the leading edge of a technology trend is overpriced and human skills with a new technology command a premium. As the many tales of ASHP operational woes indicate the consequential suffering caused by ASHP installation incompetence will cost more than the premium price of a competent installation. Look at the @joe90thread, in his otherwise perfectly executed self build it took the combined wisdom of the best forum brains weeks to diagnose his wonky heating system.

 

The ASHP/Gas decision is not just a financial equation of kWh prices and heat source unit prices. Any self builder needs to consider the probability of becoming the owner of a misdesigned complete screw up of an ASHP installation.

[CotswoldDoItUpper]

I think that at the moment just spend the difference on insulation/air tightness. That’s surely the ‘greenest’ thing to do - use less energy whatever the source!

[joe90]

9 hours ago, epsilonGreedy said:

@joe90thread, in his otherwise perfectly executed self build it took the combined wisdom of the best forum brains weeks to diagnose his wonky heating system.

Thanks!, whilst I did have a problem it was because I designed the system myself applying common sense but I am not a heating engineer. I made a presumption about the efficiency of the coil within the buffer tank, which was wrong. Likewise “the combined wisdom” and direct help from members ( @Nickfromwales and @PeterW) helped another member sort their ASHP problems that was installed by a professional!!. 

[SteamyTea]

5 minutes ago, joe90 said:

I made a presumption about the efficiency of the coil within the buffer tank, which was wrong.

Took a few years for it to become a real problem though.  Or did something else change?

[ReedRichards]

It's very difficult to make the call based on running costs because they change.  When I installed my ASHP in December 2020 I could buy electricity for 13p per kWh  and for the previous 2 years I had paid an average of 45p per litre for heating oil.  Come April the price of my electricity will have more than doubled whereas the current price of heating oil is a little less than 50% more than my average.  So for most of 2020 my ASHP was cheaper to run than my old oil boiler but since October 2020 it has switched and oil is cheaper.  If you are looking for at least 10 years of life for whichever heat source you choose then you have to predict fuel prices 10 years into the future to try to compare running costs!    

Edited February 13, 2022 by ReedRichards

[joe90]

5 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

Took a few years for it to become a real problem though.  Or did something else change?

I think it took a cold spell to realise it could not quite keep up.

[SteamyTea]

When fuel inject cars became mainstream in the late 1980s and early 1990's, many garages, including proper dealerships, were not very good at diagnosing problems.

My 205 had a habit of loosing power and belching black smoke.  The main unit was changed several times, but it was just a cheap sensor that was at fault.

Same with my Vauxhall.

Should not take as long for the industry to get to grips with heat pumps as the majority of the parts/design is the same.

 

The design is a different matter as many of these units will be sold by people that do not know what they are saying, and a few will still think in BTUs.

 

If someone claims to be a heating engineer, ask to see their higher education certificate.

Edited February 13, 2022 by SteamyTea

[SteamyTea]

Just now, joe90 said:

I think it took a cold spell to realise it could not quite keep up.

Was that the one last winter, the coldest on record (to put it into perspective).

[SBMS]

36 minutes ago, ReedRichards said:

It's very difficult to make the call based on running costs because they change.  When I installed my ASHP in December 2020 I could buy electricity for 13p per kWh  and for the previous 2 years I had paid an average of 45p per litre for heating oil.  Come April the price of my electricity will have more than doubled whereas the current price of heating oil is a little less than 50% more than my average.  So for most of 2020 my ASHP was cheaper to run than my old oil boiler but since October 2020 it has switched and oil is cheaper.  If you are looking for at least 10 years of life for whichever heat source you choose then you have to predict fuel prices 10 years into the future to try to compare running costs!    

I think you’ve probably hit the nail on the head here. I guess it’s more than just the economics of it, and comes down to balancing the type of house we want to build, predicting future energy costs and how much we dedicate to greener technology. 

[ProDave]

This has got me thinking.

 

Our ASHP uses 1500kWh of electricity each year heating the house.  so guess a COP of 3 that's 4500kWh of heat.

 

With Kerosene at 10.35kWh per litre, that's 434 litres per year.  Round that up to 500 litres for boiler efficiency.

 

Our old house had a 2500L tank.  So I would only have to buy fuel every 5 years and that would give a LOT of scope for watching the price and buying when it's cheap.

[JamesP]

10 hours ago, epsilonGreedy said:

 

I don't know but beyond the cult-like belief system of this forum it is an incontrovertible truth that an ASHP setup costs way more than a gas boiler equivalent.

@joe90

 

 

9 hours ago, CotswoldDoItUpper said:

I think that at the moment just spend the difference on insulation/air tightness. That’s surely the ‘greenest’ thing to do - use less energy whatever the source!

Having both ASHP and excellent insulation / air tightness I recommend concentrating on the fabric of the building first.

[epsilonGreedy]

1 hour ago, ReedRichards said:

It's very difficult to make the call based on running costs because they change.  When I installed my ASHP in December 2020 I could buy electricity for 13p per kWh  and for the previous 2 years I had paid an average of 45p per litre for heating oil.  Come April the price of my electricity will have more than doubled whereas the current price of heating oil is a little less than 50% more than my average.  So for most of 2020 my ASHP was cheaper to run than my old oil boiler but since October 2020 it has switched and oil is cheaper.  If you are looking for at least 10 years of life for whichever heat source you choose then you have to predict fuel prices 10 years into the future to try to compare running costs!    

 

In the Sunday Times this morning there is a prediction of the oil price shooting up to $120 a barrel. Does the gas price track the oil price?

[SteamyTea]

3 minutes ago, epsilonGreedy said:

Does the gas price track the oil price

You tell us, you comment on these things all the time.

It is only a matter of looking back at historical data.

[ProDave]

My understanding as the gas price has shot up so much because of the "dash for gas" as a short term measure to replace coal power stations, gas is a little less polluting.

 

Oil does not seem linked to the gas price, just set by supply and demand.  If someone realises they could fuel oil fired power stations cheaper than gas.........

 

If Ukraine kicks off shortly as the media are now hyping up, then I would not want to be a gas user.  Supply shortages is likely to be the issue as well as price.

 

Thank god we only have a few weeks left of this winter.

[Ferdinand]

I'll be cleaning my panels early this year, having missed last year.

 

They are very green.

 

One issue is that even though our energy use is relatively low, many contracts are linked to global markets. 

 

Though elec demand falls by 15% or so in summer, and gas demand plummets of course. There is also a *lot* of new or repaired elec supply coming back during 2022.

 

I am not enough of an energy market analyst, or know enough about how much difference the reduced elec demand from gas plants will impact gas demand and cost. 

 

Or how they could nobble the formula.

[SteamyTea]

3 minutes ago, ProDave said:

My understanding as the gas price has shot up so much because of the "dash for gas" as a short term measure to replace coal power stations, gas is a little less polluting

Much more complicated than that.

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html

 

[Ferdinand]

11 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

Much more complicated than that.

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html

 

 

In Germany they have also cancelled two or three projects to provide 'Plan B' LNG terminals in the last decade, which is a material risk factor.

 

And it works both ways - Europe is currently I think 80% of Russian gas imports. They have just opened a pipeline to China, but that is only about 10% of the capacity of current exports.

 

I am not clear whether potential sanctions would also encompass the existing Nordstream I pipeline.

[SteamyTea]

18 minutes ago, Ferdinand said:

 

I am not clear whether potential sanctions would also encompass the existing Nordstream I pipeline

I doubt it. It would cripple German manufacturing.

 

I seem to remember, about a decade ago, the UK mothballed one of our largest gas fields. Should not take long to get it back on stream.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morecambe_gas_fields

 

Seems the decommissioning only started last year.

 

Reserves of 150×10⁹ m³ 

So at 3.6 kWh per m³

That will be 5.4¹¹ kWh.

Big number.

Would heat 20,000,000 housed for a year.

 

Edited February 13, 2022 by SteamyTea

[joe90]

1 hour ago, ProDave said:

 

Thank god we only have a few weeks left of this winter.

You have got to love an optimist!!!