Why we need "Net zero"

[Beelbeebub]

3 hours ago, Mattg4321 said:

 

I don't agree with that analysis. I'm not an expert, but I do have some experience in the oil and gas sector. UK oil and gas production and to an even greater extent, exploration, has pretty much been taxed and regulated out of existence in the past 15-20 years (maybe more than that, but before my time). You can't book more reserves if you don't drill the wells. And it just hasn't been happening for a long long time now.

 

I still keep in touch with people in the industry and they tell me (perhaps overoptimistically?) that it's out there, there's just the wrong environment in place to go looking for it/extract it.

 

We were all told when we were at school that oil would run out in 20 years, or we're now at or very close to peak oil production. Both predictions have proven to be way way wide of the mark.

 

 

 

World oil production gas never been higher.

 

But uk oil (and gas) peaked around 2000 at about 4x today's rate

 

Note the other big Nsea producer Norway, is also declining albeit slower 

 

This is from the industry body last year. 

 

UK authorities are significantly underestimating the country's still-recoverable oil and gas reserves due to policies on tax and the environment that mitigate against maximizing resource recovery, industry group Offshore Energies UK said June 23.

 

The group based the assertion on an independent report from consultancy Westwood Global Energy Group, which found remaining recoverable oil and gas reserves could be up to 7.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent, compared with a government estimate of 3.75 billion boe published in February 2025.

 

Note they are pushing the maximum remaining ('recoverable') as 7.5billion boe. Other sources put the maximum at 6bn. This includes stuff we know about and stuff we think we might find. 

 

As previously noted the UK uses around 1.4million barrels a day. 

 

So 7.5bn divided by 1.4 million is near enough 15 years *absolute maximum*

 

There are cars being bought today that would burn the last drop of British oil in that scenario. And, again, that is the absolute maximum. 

 

To quote from the same report

 

There is no escaping the fact that the UK North Sea is a mature basin which is in production decline. While the decline ultimately cannot be prevented, there is still a substantial prize available to companies and the government, if the investment environment allows it. 

 

 

Here's an accompanying illustration. 

 

Note the "7.5bn" figure is 'no constraints' and half of that is made up of discoveries and prospects - basically "maybe we come up with a way to get even more oil than we thought" and "maybe we find some more oil" 

 

If we take the high case, which still has a lot of finger crossing, it's just over 4bn which is less than 10years.

 

So,whilst there may be more oil and gas about, there isn't going to be much we can get ourselves. We'll have to get it from the big oil producers who are.... 

 

1. USA

2. Saudi Arabia

3. Russia 

4. Canada

5. Iran

 

How many countries in that list can we call friendly? 

 

Again, the idea that the UK can be energy independent by extracting more oil whilst carrying on as we are (oil based road transport, gas based heating and electricity generation) is a fantasy. We need to reduce our demand and increace our home grown energy - nuclear and renewables. 

 

https://www.westwoodenergy.com/news/westwood-insight/westwood-insight-ukcs-geological-potential-remains-but-sentiment-shift-is-needed

Edited 13 hours ago by Beelbeebub

[SteamyTea]

4 hours ago, Beelbeebub said:

How many countries in that list can we call friendly

“One day, Canada will take over the world. Then you’ll all be sorry.”

[Mattg4321]

7 hours ago, Crofter said:

So why isn't the industry making this case? The figures were seen in this thread area from the industry, and are likely on the optimistic side.

It’s old data, but backs up my point that oil has always been ‘running out’.  
 

 

[Beelbeebub]

2 hours ago, Mattg4321 said:

It’s old data, but backs up my point that oil has always been ‘running out’.  
 

 

What that graph doesn't capture is the price of the oil extracted and the rate of extraction.

 

The amount of oil you can extract *economically* changes with the price of oil. As oil prices rise, less attractive sources become viable. 

 

Canada has one of the world's largest reserves, but as tar sands which are very costly to extract. The clst per barrel is somewhere north of $60 a barrel, whilst Saudi Arabia is below $10.

 

So if the world price is $100 Canada has huge reserves

 

If it's below $50 it has very little. 

 

The UK has already picked the low hanging fruit. The remaining reserves are in more costly places to extract.

 

I have looked and I cannot find a single reputable source who says that the UK can achive energy security through fossil fuels. Can anyone find one?

 

(politicians don't count) 

[saveasteading]

There is a brief and clear explanation of Venezuelan 'oil' reserves and value on 'More or Less' BBC Radio 4 .

 

If I recall :

 

there is lots.

it is tar not liquid.

Has to be mined not drilled and is expensive to extract and to process.

reserves means viable commercially, so that varies with the price of oil.