Heat pump questions

[nod]

18 minutes ago, IanR said:

 

Because there's no ban yet, and those new connections today may continue to buy gas until their boilers are irreparable post-2035.

 

 

Then the heating industry are fools. 80/20 gas/hydrogen mix was an attempt to bluff the government. Thankfully it has now as good as failed.

 

 

Yes, the point is often missed that changes now are only in preparation for Net Zero. And while they will immediately deliver a CO2 reduction, which is positive for the 2030 and 2035 targets, it won't actually be Net Zero until some point in the 2040's.

Your a bit naive if you are blaming the heating industry 

[IanR]

30 minutes ago, nod said:

Your a bit naive if you are blaming the heating industry 

 

Hmm. Actually, I'm blaming the gas industry. The heating industry (boiler manufacturers) are the fools for trying to jump on the bandwagon and sell something that is of no use to their customers.

 

The 80/20 proposal was attempted to be sold to the government as a stepping stone to a 100% green hydrogen gas grid, for heating domestic buildings. The 80/20 stepping stone only delivers a 6% reduction in CO2, at the boiler, however, since there is no green hydrogen available, even in the medium term, for domestic heating. It would be, at best, grey hydrogen (made from gas) or worse, black/brown hydrogen, made from coal, which are the current cost effective ways of producing hydrogen. Due to the processing inefficiencies, the manufacture of such hydrogen gives off far more CO2 than the 6% gas that's being saved by the 80/20 mix. The 80/20 proposal therefore increases CO2. 

 

Since the argument is now lost for the 100% green hydrogen, gas grid, just on the basis of the cost of green hydrogen, the 80/20 stepping stone is a pretty pointless adventure.

Edited October 17, 2023 by IanR

[Beelbeebub]

54 minutes ago, TonyT said:

Use off peak electricity for DHW.

give the heat pump a rest!

That is a reasonable plan for an individual. 

 

But it's a lousy plan for a nation. If we all use off peak electricity, it's no longer off peak. 

 

Switching the domestic heating load from direct gas to grid electric will require an increase in generation capacity. 

 

The size of that increase will be smaller if we predominantly use heat pumps than if we predominantly use direct electric. 

[SteamyTea]

7 minutes ago, Beelbeebub said:

1 hour ago, TonyT said:

Use off peak electricity for DHW.

give the heat pump a rest!

That is a reasonable plan for an individual. 

 

But it's a lousy plan for a nation. If we all use off peak electricity, it's no longer off peak

In reply to that, if we all used about 2 kWh of electricity to heat our hit water, then that is about 135 GWh/day.

 

During the summer the nighttime generation is around 20 GW. Winter that goes up to about 30GW.

That would use up all our current night capacity between 4.5 hours and 7 hours.

I am not sure how much wind is generally curtailed at night, all the solar is in the winter.

Nuclear stays pretty stable.

So capacity wise it is not a problem, just the timing window. That could be varied, it does not have to be a fixed window i.e. 00:30 to 07:30, nor does it need to be totally reactive to grid demand.

 

Personally I hope that the price skewing of different generation methods reduces in the not too distant future, then we can get back to better planning of both the infrastructure and the demand management.

I will say that our demand management has made for a very reliable grid, only have to look at the frequency time series to see that we are doing a good job of it.

[Crofter]

1 hour ago, Beelbeebub said:

The good thing about switching to HPs now is that right now, we produce heat more efficiently by buriing gas in a Ccgt, sending the elec to the grid and then using a HP at thr other end, than we can by just burning the gas in the house. 

 

So from a co2 perspective HPs are already a win *even if* we have to boost the grid with gas stations. We would still burn less gas overall. 

 

And then that ignores the fact that the grid is getting lower and lower carbon all the time. Capacity issues aside, direct electric heating is now equalt to or lower carbon than gas boilers (gas boilers are about 200g/kwh grid is consistently getting below that). 

 

 

Exactly the same argument applies to EVs- even if further entirely by gas power stations, they're more efficient than ICE.

[IanR]

3 hours ago, IanR said:

In Rishi's speech, ...

 

I see No.10 has tidied up their press release relating to Rishi's Net Zero "re-commitment".

 

There is no mention of any delay or watering down of the Future Homes Standard:

 

Quote

Under revised plans, the Government will:

• Move back the ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars by five years, so all sales of new cars from 2035 will be zero emission. This will enable families to wait to take advantage of falling prices over the coming decade if they wish to.

• Delay the ban on installing oil and LPG boilers, and new coal heating, for off-gas-grid homes to 2035, instead of phasing them out from 2026. Many of these homes are not suitable for heat pumps, so this ensures homeowners are not having to spend around £10-15,000 on upgrading their homes in just three years’ time.

• Set an exemption to the phase out of fossil fuel boilers, including gas, in 2035, so that households who will most struggle to make the switch to heat pumps or other low-carbon alternatives won’t have to do so. This is expected to cover about a fifth of homes, including off-gas-grid homes - those that will need expensive retrofitting or a very large electricity connection.

• Scrap policies to force landlords to upgrade the energy efficiency of their properties, but instead continue to encourage households to do so where they can.

• Raise the Boiler Upgrade Grant by 50% to £7,500 to help households who want to replace their gas boilers with a low-carbon alternative like a heat pump.

• Rule out policy ideas that would require people to share cars, eat less meat and dairy, be taxed to discourage their flying, or have seven bins to hit recycling targets – removing worrying proposals that would interfere in the way people live their lives.

 

Ref. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-recommits-uk-to-net-zero-by-2050-and-pledges-a-fairer-path-to-achieving-target-to-ease-the-financial-burden-on-british-families

 

 

It looks to me that the plan to deny new builds a connection to the gas grid and require a non fossil fuel boiler, from 2025, remains in place for now.

[Beelbeebub]

Just now, IanR said:

 

I see No.10 has tidied up their press release relating to Rishi's Net Zero "re-commitment".

 

There is no mention of any delay or watering down of the Future Homes Standard:

 

 

Ref. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-recommits-uk-to-net-zero-by-2050-and-pledges-a-fairer-path-to-achieving-target-to-ease-the-financial-burden-on-british-families

 

 

It looks to me that the plan to deny new builds a connection to the gas grid and require a non fossil fuel boiler, from 2025, remains in place for now.

I suspect a plan to whip support amongst the sector of the electorate who are reflexively against anything with a whiff of "green mumbo jumbo" or to do with "that Greta girl". 

 

Head lines achieved. Mouth breathers convinced Sunak is all that stands between them and meat taxes. 

 

Realistically there is zero reason why new builds need gas connections. They can be designed from the ground up as easy to heat via HP so none of tgr "but you need to replace all your rads!" or "where will you fit the giant tank!?" applies. 

[IanR]

6 minutes ago, Beelbeebub said:

Realistically there is zero reason why new builds need gas connections.

 

I have a concern for the supply side. The BUS scheme hasn't been a sufficient incentive to accelerate the ASHP uptake, so the UK is not yet on the right path to meet 200K ASHP installs a year by 2025.

 

With the sheds starting to offer ASHP packages that your local plumber can buy over the counter is an encouraging change, but there still needs to be someone in the process that's preparing a basic heat loss calculation and ensuring the ASHP is sized correctly. Perhaps that will come with Building Regs changes for the FHS. Then we need to see a ramp up of the supply chain, prior to rules change, otherwise there's going to be shortages, and houses that can't be finished as there's no heating system installed.

[Beelbeebub]

7 minutes ago, IanR said:

 

I have a concern for the supply side. The BUS scheme hasn't been a sufficient incentive to accelerate the ASHP uptake, so the UK is not yet on the right path to meet 200K ASHP installs a year by 2025.

 

With the sheds starting to offer ASHP packages that your local plumber can buy over the counter is an encouraging change, but there still needs to be someone in the process that's preparing a basic heat loss calculation and ensuring the ASHP is sized correctly. Perhaps that will come with Building Regs changes for the FHS. Then we need to see a ramp up of the supply chain, prior to rules change, otherwise there's going to be shortages, and houses that can't be finished as there's no heating system installed.

For *new builds* it's a non issue. The heat loss calculations are already part of the work flow, so sizing the HP is trivial as is ensuring all the pipwork is correct and there's a place to put it and the ancillaries like tanks etc. 

 

Then they just have a team(s) going in at the appropriate time to fit the units the same as they do with gas boilers now. If anything the work is less skilled as you dint actually need to be gas qualified. If you strip out the design side then a standard plumber capable of following plans and executing work to a good standard will be more than sufficient. 

[SteamyTea]

2 hours ago, Beelbeebub said:

If you strip out the design side then a standard plumber capable of following plans and executing work to a good standard will be more than sufficient. 

Almost.

There needs to be some standardisation of the control systems that the general public will understand i.e. room temperature setting and maybe a fast heat and an eco heat, which may be a case of switching weather compensation on and off.

Then the general public have to learn that these systems have to be left switched on all the time, not mucking about with timers, that will have to be built in (via GPS maybe).

[JohnMo]

8 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

maybe a fast heat

Not sure, then everyone will just select that settings and complain even more that the running costs are high.

[Post and beam]

5 hours ago, nod said:

Or even worse nuclear

Excellent power source, what the hell is wrong with Nuclear power

[SteamyTea]

42 minutes ago, Post and beam said:

Excellent power source, what the hell is wrong with Nuclear power

How about the upfront price to build, the MWh price of delivered energy, the relatively small lack of power modulation, with the associated slow ramp up and down.

Then there is the security of supply of the fuel, there has not been a mine open in Cornwall since the 1998, and I don't think there is much uranium ore there, that comes from South Terras, near St. Stephens, and they are all a bit angry over that way, probably because the mine closed in 1930.

Then we have to agree where we are going to bury the waste.  It will be in Cumbria, they just want a lot of cash to do it.

There is also the skill set needed to build and run a modern reactor, skills the UK does not have at the moment as there are only 3 EPR PWR in Europe, and I don't think any are working right yet.

Then there is the planning system to negotiate, at lest ten years of horse trading.

And solar and wind are cheaper, even after adding storage.  We can build a GW of offshore wind in 18 months, not the 20+ years a new reactor takes to not be build.

Edited October 17, 2023 by SteamyTea

[Beelbeebub]

1 hour ago, SteamyTea said:

Almost.

There needs to be some standardisation of the control systems that the general public will understand i.e. room temperature setting and maybe a fast heat and an eco heat, which may be a case of switching weather compensation on and off.

Then the general public have to learn that these systems have to be left switched on all the time, not mucking about with timers, that will have to be built in (via GPS maybe).

Hove weather comp seems pretty important when it comes to getting efficency, it seems that needs to be enabled. The challange is getting a public used to timers and thermostats used to it. 

 

Open loop WC is fine *if* you can calculate and predict the heat loss curve. 

 

With today's advancements in machine learning it shouldn't be impossible to implement some sort of learning system where the control system refines what flow temp is required for a given outside temp. The input would either be simply a set temp or the user pressing a "too cold" or "too hot" button. This would initially act as a cue for the curve to be adjusted up or down respectively but over time persistant user intervention would generate a permanent change in the curve. 

 

Ideally factors like solar radiation (how sunny it is) wind and even humidity would be taken into account *but* I would be wary of using cloud based weather forecasts or predictions simply because the long term viability of such systems is questionable. I don't want a server in California going down or a hack in Paris stopping my heating from working. 

[joth]

36 minutes ago, SteamyTea said:

How about the upfront price to build, the MWh price of delivered energy, the relatively small lack of power modulation, with the associated slow ramp up and down.

Then there is the security of supply of the fuel, there has not been a mine open in Cornwall since the 1998, and I don't think there is much uranium ore there, that comes from South Terras, near St. Stephens, and they are all a bit angry over that way, probably because the mine closed in 1930.

Then we have to agree where we are going to bury the waste.  It will be in Cumbria, they just want a lot of cash to do it.

There is also the skill set needed to build and run a modern reactor, skills the UK does not have at the moment as there are only 3 EPR PWR in Europe, and I don't think any are working right yet.

Then there is the planning system to negotiate, at lest ten years of horse trading.

And solar and wind are cheaper, even after adding storage.  We can build a GW of offshore wind in 18 months, not the 20+ years a new reactor takes to not be build.

Okay not an easy proposition to build new plants and there could be alternatives, but regarding the nuclear we already have (or import from France) it still sounds better plan than piping fossil fuels over from Russia and burning them inside my own house 

[JohnMo]

23 minutes ago, Beelbeebub said:

With today's advancements in machine learning it shouldn't be impossible to implement some sort of learning system where the control system refines what flow temp is required for a given outside temp.

This has existed for at least a decade and pretty much standard for a decent gas boiler - load compensation. Rubbish for UFH but should be great for radiators.

 

28 minutes ago, Beelbeebub said:

Open loop WC is fine *if* you can calculate and predict the heat loss curve

It's pretty simple, you just plot the curve using the heat loss calculations you have already done, with different delta between inside and outside. If you have radiators load compensation does the rest.

[RobLe]

4 hours ago, Beelbeebub said:

Realistically there is zero reason why new builds need gas connections

I think there will be resistance to swapping from gas to heatpumps in the new build sector.  Gas boilers are generally massively oversized as there is no cost penalty for this - and right now this allows shoddy building practices to go un-noticed.  Fit a correct-to-the-design heatpump instead - and it will be evident if the building is substandard - eg.  missing insulation / gaps between sheets in the cavity / air leaks etc.

[JohnMo]

5 minutes ago, joth said:

Okay not an easy proposition to build new plants and there could be alternatives, but regarding the nuclear we already have (or import from France) it still sounds better plan than piping fossil fuels over from Russia and burning them inside my own house 

Or we concentrate on tidal and offshore wind. One offshore wind farm came on line today which can provide Scotland with electric for 2/3 of all homes. The next big one to come online is 4x that size.

 

[ReedRichards]

16 hours ago, TonyT said:

Use off peak electricity for DHW.

give the heat pump a rest!

I do but I don't.  I heat up my DHW cylinder with off peak electricity using my heat pump. 

[SimonD]

14 hours ago, SteamyTea said:

Then there is the security of supply of the fuel,

 

Doesn't most of it come from the DRC?

[JohnMo]

15 minutes ago, SimonD said:

DRC?

What's that mean?

[Crofter]

1 hour ago, JohnMo said:

What's that mean?

Democratic Republic of Congo 

[JohnMo]

16 hours ago, Post and beam said:

what the hell is wrong with Nuclear power

A couple of thousand years to manage the waste for one. A few decades to build is another. Cost per kWh a third.

[Post and beam]

1 hour ago, JohnMo said:

A few decades to build is another

Thats a planning and forward thinking issue.

 

1 hour ago, JohnMo said:

Cost per kWh a third.

I thought we were focusing on the future climate.

 

1 hour ago, JohnMo said:

A couple of thousand years to manage the waste for one

 

A challenge certainly, but not insurmountable.

[JohnMo]

5 minutes ago, Post and beam said:

Thats a planning and forward thinking issue.

Most of the UK fleet of nuclear is well past its original use by date, so not much of the forward thinking and planning ahead going on. Wind, and solar is quick to plan and implement, in Scotland at least. With a bit more thinking tidal and wave will get there also, tidal being a 24/7 generation option. Offshore wind most of the time option.

 

9 minutes ago, Post and beam said:

thought we were focusing on the future climate

We are, nuclear is just stupid expensive compared to other sustainable options.

 

10 minutes ago, Post and beam said:

challenge certainly, but not insurmountable

They have had since the 1950s and far, the option seems to drop bits in concrete and place in a cave, but mostly in warehouses or put it on a ship and keep sailing. And the plot of land the site was on after a couple decades decommissioning, construct a wire fence and pay for aimed guards to keep people away. Bit more thinking required.

 

Today in my area (NE Scotland) the electric grid consists of 10% hydro and 90% wind. Scotland is mostly zero carbon already.